1. Soy Crisis
Chat
Dr.P.E.Vijay Anand
Technical Director- Animal Feed and Aquaculture Programs, India
American Soybean Association
-International Marketing
3. World Soybean Use
In MY 2011/12 World soybean
use (254.9 mmt) is projected to
be greater than World
production (245.1 mmt), leading
to an anticipated tightening of
World soybean supply-demand
balances.
4. World Soybean Use
World soybean usage has increased an average of
8.5 mmt (+3.8%) annually since MY 2008/09.
World soybean production increased over the same
time period, but all increase occurred from MY
2008/09 to MY 2009/10 (from 212 up to 261 mmt in
one year)
Thereafter production trends were stable/declining
over the last three marketing years.
5. Production fall in
SA dictating
It is now official that the Argentine
soybean crop in 2012 is about 40 –
41 mmt and the Brazilian crop is
around 65 – 66 mmt. The
Paraguayan crop is about 4 mmt.
This is about 22 mmt lower than
last year’s crop.
6. US Soybean Crop
US crop will be about 3.3
billion bushels (89.8 mmt) if
the U.S. has normal
weather and maybe 3.4
mmt (92.5 mmt) if yields
are very good.
7. Strange trend
Tight - Argentina and
Brazil report that both
countries may need to
import U.S. soybeans
before their next harvest.
The last time Brazil
imported U.S. soybeans
was in the mid-1990s.
8. Strong trend
China is the
strongest buyer (55
mmt) of US and SA
soy products. This
trend will keep
spurring global
demand
9. What does not happen
in India
Over the next few months I suggest you may want to
advise soybean and soy meal buyers in your region
that they should consider locking in new-crop
purchases from the U.S. to make sure they will get
the supplies they need as well to avoid the potential
of higher prices in the fall and winter. They do not
want to get caught short of their needs or having to
pay high prices if the U.S. crop is poor
10. India oil meal export
India's oil meal exports in
the financial year that ended
in March 2012 rose 8.9
percent on year to 5.52
million tones on strong
demand from traditional
buyers like Japan, Vietnam
and South Korea,
11. All are grabbing Indian
meal
An Indonesian feed miller bought soy meal
a from India at a record-high price of $505 a
c ame n
n be rket i
Ira ma
ton, including cost and freight, this week as
new 2 – took prices climb on tight supplies and delay in
201 mmt shipments from South America, traders
0.5
said on Wednesday ( April 20th 2012).
A group of Thai feed millers were in the
market seeking some150,000 to 170,000 tons
of soy meal through a private tender for
shipment between October and December,
traders said ( April 4, 2012)
12. Who grabs Indian
protein?
80% Vietnam, China,
Indonesia, Japan, South
Korea
We forget about PK,BG,
CE and NE? = 1 MMT?
Are we in a position to
spare meal; if we know our
industry well -we may not
13. Silently PK NE
shipping 0.300 0.100
or
Slipping? 3.5 MMT
0.450
IN
BG
About 1 MMT
Is used by our
neighbors
CE 0.100
14. Despite Y/Y percentages of
oil meals, soy meal exports
have been steady at average
3.5 MMT/Yr
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011
Exports 3.42 3.66 3.90 4.11 2.11 3.80
15. Of total oil meal, 70-80%
export volume is SBM
Are we on the right track?
Is somebody smarter than
we are?
Or we are most generous
to support some one
else’s growth by making
sacrifices
16. SBM situation/forecast
Soy use Soy use Current by 2015
2010 soy use
sector (MMT)
Broiler 2.29 2.61 3.82
Layer 0.808 0.860 1.50
Aquaculture 0.23 0.350 0.833
Dairy 0.100 0.100 0.150
Total 3.43 3.92 6.30
17. Domestic dependence
Parameter Value
Soybean Production 9400
Less seeds 1222 2010 - 66%
Less human consumption 500 consumed
Beans to crush 7678
in domestic
SBM produced 6295
Exports 2112
market
Domestic Animal 3430
Domestic Human 753
Domestic SBM Use 4183
20. What is the solution?
Ask for a quota system
Don’t ask for ban – its sensitive to GOI
Ask for slashing import duty
Be proactive – do not react ONLY when
prices shoot up
Keep projecting what the domestic
industry needs
Look into international rates/trends
frequently
21. What influences
prices?
Crush margins between meal/oil/seed
Weather during sowing
Current crop disease/production status
Exchange rates
GOI policy for MSP, import duty, export
incentives
Price of meal v/s other protein meals
22. What influences
prices?
Diseases in the animal production sector
Demand of SBM from importing countries
Demand in the domestic market
CBOT price movement ( reference)
Forecast of soy production by USDA
Shipping, freight and logistics
23. Balance Switched
We agree that the animal feed
industry is moving ahead
rapidly
New businesses are rapidly
increasing
New systems and new species
- increasing
Animal performances requiring
quality and quantity of feed =
more raw material required
26. Alarm..
Bells are
ringing in India,
we must hear
them…..
Countries depending
on India need to be
proactive and make
alternate
arrangements for
meal supplies
