Nate Silver, Statistician, Author & Founder, ESPN'S FiveThirtyEight blog His presentation at the 4A's Data Summit on Oct. 16 in NYC. Visit http://datasummit.aaaa.org/ for more information.

2. Big Data… Big Problems?

3. Big Data… Big Problems?

4. Big Data… Big Problems?

5. The Lessons of 2012
The 538 Method (Simplified)
1. Average
the Polls
2. Count to
270
3. Account
for Margin of
Error

6. The Lessons of 2012

7. The Lessons of 2012

8. The Lessons of 2012

9. The Lessons of 2012
“nate silver”
“joe biden”

10. The Lessons of 2012
“justin bieber”

11. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?

12. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?

13. Problem #1: Big Data… Big Bias?

14. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio

15. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio

16. The Signal-to-Noise Ratio

17. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal
http://imgs.xkcd.com/comics/sports.png

18. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal

19. Problem #2: Desperately Seeking Signal

20. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
a
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

21. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
Kasparov
+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +3 +5 +9 = 29
Deep Blue
+1 +1 +1 +1 +1 +3 +3 +5 +5 +9
= 30

22. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
a
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

23. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
a
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

24. The Limits of Artificial “Intelligence”
a
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
b
c
d
e
f
g
h

25. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?

26. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?

27. Problem #3: Feature or Bug?

28. Suggestions

29. Suggestions
1. Think Probabilistically
2. Know Where You’re Coming From
3. Try, and Err

30. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically
Flood Prediction: 49’
Levee: 51’

31. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically
Margin of Error: ±9’
Flood Prediction: 49’
Levee: 51’

32. Suggestion #1: Think Probabilistically

33. Suggestion #2: Know Where You’re Coming From

34. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
100%
80%
60%
Accuracy
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Effort
80%
100%

35. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

36. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
100%
80%
60%
Accuracy
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Effort
80%
100%

37. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err

38. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
100%
80%
60%
Accuracy
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Effort
80%
100%

39. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
100%
80%
60%
Accuracy
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Effort
80%
100%

40. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
100%
Water level
80%
60%
Accuracy
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Effort
80%
100%

41. Suggestion #3: Try, and Err
100%
Competitive
Advantage
80%
60%
Accuracy
40%
20%
0%
0%
20%
40%
60%
Effort
80%
100%

42. Suggestions
1. Think Probabilistically
2. Know Where You’re Coming From
3. Try, and Err

43. Suggestions
(Know Your Limitations)
2. Know Where You’re Coming From
3. Try, and Err

44. Suggestions
(Know Your Limitations)
(Consider Your Assumptions)
3. Try, and Err

45. Suggestions
(Know Your Limitations)
(Consider Your Assumptions)
(Refine Your Process)

46. Suggestions
“In Science, We Seek to Balance
Creativity and Skepticism”
-- Michael Babyak, PhD, Department of Psychiatry
and Behavioral Science, Duke University Medical
Center