YouGov Umfrageergebnisse zum Schottland-Referendum 2014

1. Holger Geißler, September, 17th, 2014
Current polls about Scottish Referendum

2. 2
Agenda
• Who we are
• Opinions on the Scottish Referendum
• Independence, yes or no?
• Economic perspectives
• Campaigns
• Methodological issues

3. 3
YouGov at a glance
Company data
25
locations in Europe, the Middle
East, the United States and Asia
Pacific
500
employees worldwide, among
them 120 in Germany
your experienced
partner in Germany
since
1991
own Online-Panel of over
3,000,000
members in 33 countries, among them 140,000 in Germany
YouGov is one of the
Top 25
market research companies in the world
appearing in the online press more than
18,000
times per financial year YouGov is one of the most frequently quoted
full-service market research companies in Germany

4. 4
YouGov at a glance
Corporate Structure
YouGov plc., London, UK
YouGov Germany AG, Cologne, Germany
beField GmbH, Berlin
ServiceRating GmbH,
Cologne
100 %
70 % 100 %

5. 5
•
YouGov at a glance
Offices worldwide
YouGov offices
Hong Kong, China
Shanghai, China
Singapore
Erbil, Iraq
Cairo, Egypt

6. Should Scotland be an independent country, yes or no?

7. 7
Latest Scottish Referendum YouGov poll
Fieldtime: September, 9th – 11th, 2014
n = 1,268 Scottish Adults
45%
50%
2%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes No Would not vote Don´t know

8. 8
Independence, yes or no?

9. 9
The trend (YouGov polls only)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Should Scotland be an independent country?
Yes No Don´t know / wouldn´t vote
1. TV
debate
2. TV
debate

10. 10
7 September – YouGov poll for Sunday Times showed „Yes“ in the lead

11. 11
Counterstrike
Last week, following our shock poll, the No campaign
fought back strongly, with Gordon Brown appealing to
Labour voters flirting with independence. Better together
was aided by retailers warning of higher prices and
Scottish banks warning of moving their headquarters to
London, should Yes win on Thursday. Our midweek poll
caught a marked change of mood. Not only did we report a
3% swing back to No, which returned to the lead, albeit
only narrowly. More significant was the six point rise in the
number of Scots thinking Yes would be bad for their
economy – and an eight point rise in the number fearing
that their own finances would suffer.
Peter Kellner, YouGov, 15 September 2014

12. Economic perspectives

13. 13
Economic perspectives
Fieldtime: February, 3rd – 5th, 2014, August, 12th – 15th, 2014, September, 2nd – 5th, 2014, September, 9th – 11th, 2014
n = 1,047 Scottish Adults, 1,085 Scottish Adults, 1,084 Scottish Adults, 1,268 Scottish Adults
47% 46%
42%
48%
25%
32%
40%
37%
12%
10% 9%
7%
16%
12%
10%
8%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
February, 2014 August, 2014 September, 2014 September, 2014
Do you think Scotland would be ECONOMICALLY better off or
worse off if it was an independent country?
Worse off Better off No real difference Don´t know

14. 14
Personal economic perspectives
Fieldtime: August, 12th - 15th, 2014, Sptember, 2nd - 5th, 2014, September 9th - 11th, 2014
n = 1,085 Scottish Adults , 1,084 Scottish Adults, 1,268 Scottish Adults
19%
23%
21%
42%
37%
45%
22%
25%
23%
17%
15%
10%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
40%
45%
50%
August, 2014 September, 2014 September, 2014
Do you think you personally would be financially better or
worse off if Scotland became an independent country, or
would it make no difference?
Better off Worse off No difference Don´t know

15. Campaigns

16. 16
Campaigns: Yes Scotland was seen more positive
Fieldtime: August, 12th – 15th, 2014
n = 1085 Scottish Adults
39% 41% 40%
38%
48%
34%
37%
49%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Yes Scotland Better Together
Do you think the campaigns so far have been positive or negative, or
honest or dishonest?
Mostly honest Mostly dishonest Mostly positive Mostly negative

17. Methodological issues

18. 18
Independence, yes or no?

19. 19
Methological issues
• Sample error
• Every poll is only based on a „random“ sample
• Every sample has a sample error
• Confindence intervalls (n=1.000): e.g. 48% „Yes“ means that the vote will be in the
intervall between 44,8% up to 51,2% (but indeed the most likely result is 48%)
• Turnout
• Assumed to be high – usually good for pollsters
• But: People on the very fringes of society are usually underrepresented in opinion polls
of all sorts. In most voting intention polls this doesn’t matter, because this people are
also unlikely to vote. But if the voter turnout is high, these people are likely to vote – and
this could be a potential source of error.

20. 20
Splitting of the vote after subgroups
Yes No Would not vote Don´t know
Birthplace:
Scotland 48% 48% 1% 3%
Elsewhere in UK 27% 63% 4% 6%
Outside the UK 33% 51% 10% 6%
Gender:
Male 51% 44% 1% 3%
Female 39% 55% 2% 4%
Age:
16-24 44% 51% 3% 2%
25-39 54% 36% 4% 6%
40-49 48% 48% 1% 4%
60+ 35% 63% 0% 3%
Party preferences:
Con 3% 96% 1% 0%
Lab 19% 77% 1% 3%
Lib Dem 13% 87% 0% 0%
SNP 92% 7% 0% 1%
Fieldtime: September, 9th – 11th, 2014
n = 1,268 Scottish Adults

21. 21
Predicted regional differences in vote
http://vis.oobrien.com/indyref/

22. 22
Tomorrow will be „High Noon“ – result on Friday, 7am
• Polling stations open at 7am on
Thursday 18 September and close at 10pm.
• There will be no “Exit poll”!
• The ballots will be counted overnight
and the final result is due around
7am on Friday morning.
• Ballots will be counted at 32 local areas
• The smaller population centres are expected
to declare first (from 2am) on. The results
from Aberdeen, Glasgow and Edinburgh
expected last, between 5am and 6am.
• What could delay the result?
• Bad weather
• Very high turnout
• Recounts

23. 23
Holger Geißler
Board member
T +49 221 42061-344
F +49 221 42061-100
holger.geissler@yougov.de
Thank you for your kind attention!
YouGov
Gustav-Heinemann-Ufer 72
D-50968 Köln
www.yougov.de
research.yougov.de