1. Page 1 of 44
RECORD TYPE: FEDERALT (NOTES MAIL)
-
CREATOR:"Watson, Harlan L (OES)"
<WatsonHL~state.gov>( "Watson, Harlan L COES)" <Wa
CREATION DATE/TIME: 7-APR-2003 19:15:] 6.00
SUBJECT:: TCS Enviro-Sci - Unilateral and Right.htm
TO:Phil Cooney ( CN=Phil Cooney/OUJCEQ/o=EOP@BOP
[ CEQ
READ :UNKNOWN
TOrKenneth L. Peel ( CN:4(enneth LD. Pee l/OU=CEQ/O=EOP@BOP[ CEQI
READ :UNKNOWN
TEXT:
«<TCS Enviro-Sci - Unilateral and
Right.htm»>
A research story that I predict
will nolt be carried by The New
- TCS Enviro-Sci - Unilateral York Times.
and Righ~t.htm--=~=======
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</table>
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align~right>
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<td><img src=images/20 3 O4 0 3 -trees-large.jpg width=212
height=l
51 border=2></td>
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<tr>
<t d>
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<tr>
<td width=l0 bgcolor=#336699></'td>
<td bgcolor=iOO3366><font face=Arial, Helvetica, sans
-serif size=l color=#FFFFFF> Julic L. Betancourt </font></td>
</table>
<I td>
</table>
<font face="Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif" size="2">
Then the war in Iraq ends a renewed clamor for the
s to back harsh restrictions on carbon-dioxide emissions United State
will begin.
<br>
<br>T
he reasons are obvious. Environmentalis s, politicians
and editorialists in the
U.S. will complain that, if only the Bish Administration
had been more "'multil
ateral" and had backed the Kyoto Protoc 1 on global
warming, more Europeans wou
ld have joined our military campaign ag inst Saddam
Hussein.
<br>
<br>Tony Bla
ir, our strongest overseas ally, has bi terly criticized
U.S. opposition to Kyo
to - partly to prove to home audiences that he is no
lapdog of George W. Bush.
It's likely that he'll also want to patch things up
with France and Germany by
using some of his political capital wit] Bush to push
the White House to adopt
measures to fight climate change.
<br>
<br>Key international meetings in Cancui
and Florence this fall will be the battleground for
the final assault by Green
s and their allies to convince Amnerican. to join Kyoto,
or something like it.
br>
<br>That's why a <a target=_blank href="http://cfa-www.harvard~edu/press/pr
O3 10.html">new study</a>, funded in part by NASA and
announced in a Harvard Uni
versity press release on Monday, is so important. The
study concludes that, con
trary to popular belief, "Many records Teveal that the
20th century is likely <
I>not</I> the warmest nor a uniquely extreme climatic
period of the last millen
nium" [emphasis in the study].
<br>
<br>The conclusion comes from "a review of
more than 200 climate studies led by researchers at
the Harvard-Smithsonian Ce
nter for Astrophysics." The researchers were Willie
Soon and Sallie Baliunas of
the Harvard-Smithsonian Center; Craig Idso and Sherwood
Idso of the Center for
the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change at Tempe,
Ariz.; and David R. Le
gates of the Center for Climatic Researci at the University
of Delaware.
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13. Page 13 of4
<br>
br>Baliunas is also deputy director o: the
Mt. Wilson observatory in California
and co-host of TechCentraiStation, to which
Soon is a regular contributor.-
<br
<br>In the press release distributed ly Harvard,
Soon is quoted as saying: "M
any true research advances in reconst ucting
ancient climates have occurred ove
r the past two decades, so we felt it was
time to pull together a large sample
of recent studies from the last five to ten
years and look for patterns of vani
ability and change.
<br>
<br>"In fact, clear patterns did emerg showing
egions worldwide experienced the highs of that r
the Medieval Warm Period and lows of
the Little Ice Age, and that 20th centiry
temperatures are generally cooler tha
n during the medieval warmth."
<br>
<br>These findings are vital to the de ate
over the Kyoto agreement since the pre ise
for cutting back on greenhouse-gas e
missions is that humans played a signi icant
role in heating up the Barth durnn
g the 20th Century. But Soon and his c lleagues
confirmed that a warm epoch app
eared in various parts of the world fr m about
900 to 1000 A.D. through about 1
200 to 1300'A.D., during which tempera ures
were greater than those of the 20th
Century.
<br>
<br>Needless to say, there were no SJVs 1,000
years ago.
<br>
r>Other warm periods are also identifi d
in the study. For example, the researc
hers ask, "Was the warmth of the 1980s in
western Europe exceptional or unusual
2" Not at all.
•br>
<br>They cite the respected climate sc olar
H. H. Lamb, wh
o wrote that "even the great warmth of the
years 1989/1991, hailed in some quar
ters as proof of the reality of the predicted
global warming due to the enhance
ment of the greenhouse effect by increasing
carbon dioxide and other effluentsm
ay have a surprising analogy in the past
to the remarkable warmth - well attest
ed in Europe - of the year 1540, shortly
before the sharpest onset of the so-ca
lled Little Ice Age." In the first week of
January 1541, Lamb wrote that "young
people were still bathing in the Rhine on
the Swiss-German border."
<br>
<br>T
he point here is that warm periods don': necessarily
precede warmer periods. Th
ey may precede colder ones. We just don't
know enough about climate to make pre
dictions, and it would be folly to spent
between $150 billion and $400 billion
a year - the estimates for Kyoto-style Litigation
- on the flimsy evidence of w
arming that currently exists.
<br>
<br>The study also casts doubt on the sort
o
f thin anecdotal evidence often cited b- the
media to show that the planet is h
eating up in unusual fashion. For examp .e,
the •I>New York Times</I> is obsesse
d with retreating glaciers, but they are not
a new phenomenon.
<br>
<br> "Broad
ly," write the scholars, "glaciers retr ated
all over the world during the Medi
eval Warm Period, with a notable but mi or
re-advance between 1050 and 1150. Th
e world's small glaciers and tropical glaciers
have simultaneously retreated si
nce the 19th century, but some glaciers have
advanced." Soon and his colleagues
cite the work of D. J. A. Evans, who "commented
that significant warming phase
s, especially those accompanied by relatively
warm winters and cool summers, du
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14. Page 14 of 44
ring intergiacials [like the current reriod] may
lead to the onset of another g
lobal glaciation.'
<br>
<br>So, melting glaciers are not uni ue to the industr
ial era, and they could signal a peri d of growing,
not retreating, glaciers to
come.
<br>
<br>The evidence of earlier warming is not new. But,
as Baliunas sa
ys, "For a long time, researchers haye Possessed
anecdotal evidence supporting
the existence of these climate extremes. For example,
the Vikings established c
olonies in Greenland at the beginning f the second
millennium that died out se
veral hundred years later when the climate turned
colder. And in England, viney
ards had flourished during the medieval warmth.
Now, we have an accumulation of
objective data to back up these cultural indicators."
<br>
<br>The data were
from ice cores, tree-ring samples and Dther methods.
And the results are clear:
Despite our modern hubris, we aren't -he only humans
to experience a warmer ea
rth. It makes sense, then, to view wit. skepticism
the claims that we have <Ihc
aused</I> major changes in climate.
<br>
<br>Observers such as Bjorn Lomborg,
the Danish statistician and author of T:>The Skeptical
Environmentaiist,</I> st
art their critique by accepting the no ion that
the earth is warming and that h
umans play a key role. Lomborg argues that trying
to fix the problem with huge
expenditures or cutbacks that will red ce economic
growth is far too costly for
the meager benefits that will ensue f om Kyoto's
strictures.
<br>
<br>Yes, bu
t now Soon and the other researchers aie showing
the shakiness of Kyoto's found
ation. The strong implication of their work is that
warming is probably natural
and cyclical. It happens all the time, and there
is not much we can do about i
t. Nor can we predict its course with much accuracy.
<br>
<br>What's needed now
- and we certainly have the time -
is more research. Risking havoc with the wo
rid economy, especially in this fragile period, would
be foolish and dangerous.
Kyoto has been moved to the back burner, mainly by
the U.S. and developing cou
ntries. That's where it belongs.
<br>
<br>But it might not stay there. Policyna
kers need to pay attention to the facts - especially
after the war ends and env
ironmental extremists start applying th~real heat.
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