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Module 1: The World of Marketing Is
Changing - Are You Being Left Behind?

   1.1 Introduction


   1.2 Competing On Analytics


   1.3 The Data Explosion


   1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research


   1.5 Questions
• Debbie Mayville
  – Sr. Solutions Architect, Communications & Marketing
    Analytics, SAS
• David Kelley
  – Sr. Solutions Architect, Customer Intelligence, SAS
• Suneel Grover
  – Solutions Architect, Integrated Marketing Analytics, SAS
  – Adjunct Professor, Integrated Marketing Analytics,
    New York University (NYU)
Module 1: The World of Marketing Is
Changing - Are You Being Left Behind?

   1.1 Introduction


   1.2 Competing On Analytics


   1.3 The Data Explosion


   1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research


   1.5 Questions
„Old Spice‟ Campaign Case Study
Achieving Success With Business Analytics

                                         What’s the best that can happen?


                                                                             Optimization
                                       What will happen next?

                                                                   Predictive
                                                                   Modeling
             What if these trends continue?
                                                      Forecasting

          Why is this happening?                Statistical
                                                Analysis
                                       Alerts

                            Query                        What actions are needed?
                           Drilldown
                 Ad hoc                           Where exactly is the problem?
                 Reports
        Std.                             How many, how often, where?
       Reports
                               What happened?
Business Analytics
“The extensive use of data, statistical and quantitative
analysis, explanatory and predictive models, and fact-
based management to drive decisions and actions.”

                          Davenport and Harris (2007)
                          Competing on Analytics:
                          The New Science of Winning
Data Deluge
Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge

1. Every problem will generate data eventually.




2. Every company will need analytics eventually.




3. Everyone will need analytics eventually.




                                                   ...
Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge

1. Every problem will generate data eventually.
   Proactively defining a data collection protocol will
   result in more useful information, leading to more
   useful analytics.
2. Every company will need analytics eventually.




3. Everyone will need analytics eventually.



                                                          ...
Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge

1. Every problem will generate data eventually.
   Proactively defining a data collection protocol will
   result in more useful information, leading to more
   useful analytics.
2. Every company will need analytics eventually.
   Proactively analytical companies will compete more
   effectively.

3. Everyone will need analytics eventually.




                                                          ...
Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge

1. Every problem will generate data eventually.
   Proactively defining a data collection protocol will
   result in more useful information, leading to more
   useful analytics.
2. Every company will need analytics eventually.
   Proactively analytical companies will compete more
   effectively.

3. Everyone will need analytics eventually.
   Proactively analytical people will be more
   marketable and more successful in their work.
The Business Analytics Challenge
Getting anything useful out of tons and tons of data
Hope For The Data Deluge



                     + analytical tools




          = actionable knowledge
Changes In The Analytical Landscape

    Historically…
                 Models


Analytical Modelers   Management
                                   Historically, analytics have
                                   typically been handled in
                                      the “back office,” and
                                    information was shared
                                   only by a few individuals.
Changes In The Analytical Landscape
Historical Changes
   – Executive Dashboards
      • Static reports about business processes
   – Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
      • The right offer to the right person at the right time
   – 360-degree customer view
Changes In The Analytical Landscape

Relational Databases
Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP)
Point of Sale (POS) Systems

Decision Support Systems
   – Reporting and Ad Hoc Queries
   – Online Analytical Processing (OLAP)
Performance Management Systems
   – Executive Information Systems (EIS)
   – Balanced Scorecard
Business Intelligence
CRM Evolution
• Total Quality Management (TQM)
  – Product-Centric
      • Quality: Six Sigma
      • Total Customer Satisfaction
      • Mass Marketing
• One-to-One Marketing
  – Customer Relationship
      • Wallet Share of Customer
      • Customer Retention
• Customer Relationship Management (CRM)
  – Customer-Centric
      • Strategy
      • Process
      • Technology
Changes In The Analytical Landscape
  Now…                                       Operations    Targeting
                      Proliferation of
                          Models


                                              Customer     Customers
Analytical Modelers
                                               Service




                                                Retail     Suppliers
 Now analytics are being pushed out
 to the “front office”. There are clear,
  tangible benefits that management
will track. Data mining is a critical part
          of business analytics.              Promotions   Employees
Idiosyncrasies Of Business Analytics
1. The Data
    - Massive, operational, and opportunistic
2. The Users and Sponsors
    - Business decision support
3. The Methodology
    - Computer-intensive adhockery
    - Multidisciplinary

Data mining can be defined as
advanced methods for exploring
and modeling relationships in
large amounts of data.
The Data

              Experimental          Opportunistic
Purpose          Research             Operational
Value            Scientific           Commercial
Generation   Actively controlled   Passively observed
Size               Small                Massive
Hygiene            Clean                 Dirty
State              Static              Dynamic
The Data: Disparate Business Units




Marketing         Invoicing       Risk




Acquisitions     Operations       Sales
Opportunistic Data
– Operational data
   • Typically not collected with data analysis in mind
– Multiple business units
   • Silo-based data environment

 This makes business analytics different from
 experimental statistics and especially challenging
The Methodology: What We Learned Not to Do
• Prediction is more important than inference
   1. Metrics are used “because they work”
   2. p-values are directional guides
   3. Interpretation of a model might be irrelevant
   4. The preliminary value of a model is determined by
      its ability to predict a holdout sample
   5. The long-term value of a model is determined by
      its ability to continue to perform well over time
   6. Models are retired as behavior and trends shifts
Using Analytics Intelligently
• Intelligent use of analytics
   1. Understanding of how
      marketplace shifts affect
      business performance
   2. Ability to distinguish between
      effective and ineffective
      interventions
   3. Efficient use of assets, reduced waste
   4. Risk reduction via measurable outcomes
   5. Early detection of trends hidden in massive data
   6. Continuous improvement in decision making
Simple Reporting
Examples: OLAP, RFM, descriptive statistics, extrapolation
Answer questions such as:
1. Where are my key indicators now?
2. Where were my key indicators last week?
3. Is the current process behaving like normal?
4. What’s likely to happen tomorrow?
Proactive Analytical Investigation
Examples: Data mining, experimentation, empirical
validation, predictive modeling, optimization
Answer questions such as:
1. What does a change in the market mean for my targets?
2. What do other factors tell me about my target?
3. What is the best combination of factors for maximum profit?
4. What is the highest price the market will tolerate?
Data Stalemate
• Many companies have data that they do not use or sell
  to third parties. These third parties might even resell the
  data and any derived metrics back to the original
  company!

• Story: Retail grocery POS card
Every Little Bit…
Taking an analytical approach to only a few key business
problems with reliable metrics  tangible benefit
The benefits and savings derived from early analytical
successes  managerial support for more analytics


1. Everyone has data
2. Analytics can connect data to
   smart decisions
3. Proactively analytical companies
   outpace competition
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition   Which residents in a ZIP
•   Customer loyalty           code should receive a
•   Cross-sell / up-sell       coupon in the mail for a
                               new store location?
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty           What advertising strategy
•   Cross-sell / up-sell       best elicits positive
                               sentiment toward the
•   Pricing tolerance
                               brand?
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell     What is the best next
•   Pricing tolerance        product for this customer?
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance          What is the highest price
•   Supply optimization        that the market will bear
•   Staffing optimization      without substantial loss of
                               demand?
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization      How many 60-inch HDTVs
•   Staffing optimization    should be in stock?
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization      What are the best times
•   Financial forecasting      and best days to have
                               technical experts on the
•   Product placement
                               showroom floor?
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting      What weekly revenue
•   Product placement          increase can be expected
•   Churn                      after the Mother’s Day
                               sale?
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement        Will oatmeal sell better
•   Churn                    near granola bars or near
•   Insurance rate setting   baby food?
•   Fraud detection
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn                      Which customers are most
•   Insurance rate setting     likely to switch to a
•   Fraud detection            different wireless provider
                               in the next six months?
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting   How likely is it that this
•   Fraud detection          individual will have a claim?
•   …
Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used
•   New customer acquisition
•   Customer loyalty
•   Cross-sell / up-sell
•   Pricing tolerance
•   Supply optimization
•   Staffing optimization
•   Financial forecasting
•   Product placement
•   Churn
•   Insurance rate setting
•   Fraud detection          How can I identify a fraudulent
•   …                        purchase?
When Analytics Are Not Helpful
• Snap decisions required         Deciding when to run
• Novel approach (no previous     from danger
  data possible)
• Most salient factors are rare
  (making decisions to work
  around unlikely obstacles or
  miracles)
• Expert analysis suggests a
  particular path
• Metrics are inappropriate
• Naïve implementation of
  analytics
• Confirming what you already
  know
When Analytics Are Not Helpful
• Snap decisions required
• Novel approach (no previous     Predicting the adoption of
  data possible)                  a new technology
• Most salient factors are rare
  (making decisions to work
  around unlikely obstacles or
  miracles)
• Expert analysis suggests a
  particular path
• Metrics are inappropriate
• Naïve implementation of
  analytics
• Confirming what you already
  know
When Analytics Are Not Helpful
• Snap decisions required
• Novel approach (no previous
  data possible)
• Most salient factors are rare   Planning contingencies
  (making decisions to work       for employees winning
  around unlikely obstacles or    the lottery
  miracles)
• Expert analysis suggests a
  particular path
• Metrics are inappropriate
• Naïve implementation of
  analytics
• Confirming what you already
  know
When Analytics Are Not Helpful
• Snap decisions required
• Novel approach (no previous
  data possible)
• Most salient factors are rare
  (making decisions to work
  around unlikely obstacles or
  miracles)
• Expert analysis suggests a      The seasoned art critic
  particular path                 can recognize a fake
• Metrics are inappropriate
• Naïve implementation of
  analytics
• Confirming what you already
  know
When Analytics Are Not Helpful
• Snap decisions required
• Novel approach (no previous
  data possible)
• Most salient factors are rare
  (making decisions to work
  around unlikely obstacles or
  miracles)
• Expert analysis suggests a
  particular path                 Predicting athletes’
• Metrics are inappropriate       salaries or quantifying
• Naïve implementation of         love
  analytics
• Confirming what you already
  know
When Analytics Are Not Helpful
• Snap decisions required
• Novel approach (no previous
  data possible)
• Most salient factors are rare
  (making decisions to work
  around unlikely obstacles or
  miracles)
• Expert analysis suggests a
  particular path
• Metrics are inappropriate
• Naïve implementation of         Only looking at one
  analytics                       variable at a time
• Confirming what you already
  know
When Analytics Are Not Helpful
• Snap-decisions required
• Novel approach (no previous
  data possible)
• Most salient factors are rare
  (making decisions to work
  around unlikely obstacles or
  miracles)
• Expert analysis suggests a
  particular path
• Metrics are inappropriate
• Naïve implementation of
  analytics
• Confirming what you already     Ignoring variables that
  know                            might be important
The Fallacy Of Univariate Thinking
What is the most important cause of churn?


   Prob(churn)




         International                       Daytime
         Usage                               Usage
Expectations Leading The Analysis
• Sophisticated analytics are not immune to personal bias
   – Selectively fitting models because they place an opinion or
     agenda in a positive light
   – Ignoring information that might disprove a hypothesis
• Personal bias, whether intentional or not, can diminish
  the usefulness of analytics
Trustworthy Analytics
Let the data guide your conclusions

   – Are my assumptions about the causes
     of the data patterns warranted?
   – Should I be trying something different?

Assign a cynic to the analytical team whose purpose is
to question the assumptions
Idea Exchange
 Identify several business problems that you could
  address with analytics
 Describe the goal, whether the variables can be
  measured, how the data could be obtained, and what
  types of specific questions you would like to address
  with analytics
Case Study – US Telco
• Data Deluge: Just Get Started
   – Low hanging fruit
   – Continue to build and get smarter
   – 360 degree view of the customer
• Tools: Efficiency & Effectiveness
   – Data management tools
   – Analytic tools
• Move to data driven insights versus gut reactions
• Establish measurement system
   – Test & Learn Environment
Customer Lifecycle – Touch Points
Obtaining 360 Degree View Of The Customer
                             Activ-
                  Social     ation      Firmo-
                 Network               graphics

         Usage                                     Demo-
                                                  graphics



     Care                                              Point of
                             360                        Sale
                            Degree
                           Customer
     Hard-                   View                      Service,
     ware                                               Repair


          VOD,
                                                  Network
         Games
                                       Commu-
                 Billing                 ni-
                            Collect-   cations
                             ions
Large Telco With Industry-leading Churn Rate
    Churn                           Churn
    Reduction By                    Reduction Value ($)
    Reason

     Equipment                        9 bps    $121M

         Usage                        16 bps   $163M

        Network                       15 bps   $158M

   Active Issue
    Resolution                        11 bps   $110M

       Contract
       Renewal                        25 bps   $273M

Sales Channel /
       Credit &                       6 bps    $87M
     Collections

           Total                      82 bps   $912M
Case Study
     US Telco
Business Issue
• Company-wide initiative to lower the churn rate among customers
• Focus on “high value” or “high value potential” customers
• Improve treatment strategy and relevance

Solution
    • Data management
    • Advanced analytics

Results/Benefits
•    Reduced churn by 40%
•    Increased customer loyalty and lifetime value
•    Increase of operational revenues by $1B over 3 years
•    Ability to uncover dissatisfaction drivers and tailor proactive churn
     treatments
Module 1: The World of Marketing Is
Changing - Are You Being Left Behind?

   1.1 Introduction


   1.2 Competing On Analytics


   1.3 The Data Explosion


   1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research


   1.5 Questions
Key BUSINESS Trends Affecting Marketing
       From Product to Customer
       • Customer-centric business strategy
       • The customer experience
       • 360-degree customer view


       Finding the Next Origin of Business Growth
       • Consolidation/mergers/acquisitions
       • Market expansion
       • Efficiency & optimization


       The Regulatory Rise
       •   Increased disclosure and transparency
       •   Privacy and information sharing
       •   Consumer contact rules
       •   Regulatory reform
Key CONSUMER Forces Affecting Marketing
        Consumer in Charge
        • Rising expectations and more choice
        • From right time to “real time”
        • Demographic divide


        Channel Adoption
        • Mobile devices and consumer adoption
        • Web 2.0 and the digital age
        • Cross-channel usage


        Huge Online and Social Adoption
        • Social networking
        • Consumer-controlled content and channels
        • Consumer engagement
A Broadened Definition of “The Customer”

 The Consumer
 The Citizen
 The Subscriber
 The Plan Member
 The Patient
 The Patron
...applicable across B2C & B2B
Customer Intelligence Is Relevant Across Industries

Financial Services       Insurance          Retail



   Hospitality &
                      Telco & Cable      Manufacturing
     Gaming




   Government        Marketing Service      Health &
                        Providers        Life Sciences




                         Utilities
The Marketer Has An Evolving Mandate
                                                                  Expectation
Expectation                                                       Deliver a branded
Integrated, multi-channel                                         customer experience
in/outbound conversations                                         in and outside of
in real-time                                                      marketing
                                     The Marketing
                                       Campaign
                                                        The
                          The                        Customer
                         Brand                       Experience

                                     Responsibilities
Expectation
Sustain brand health
in a rapidly changing
virtual world                     Insights
                                    and
                                  Analytics

Expectation
Unearth and dynamically
manage insights to drive action
Key Forces Affecting Marketers
    Huge Online and
    Social Consumer
       Adoption
2B people online,100B monthly searches and
600MM people on social networks globally
Key Forces Affecting Marketers
Huge Online and Social
 Consumer Adoption           Ever-Growing and
                            Converging Marketing
                                 Channels
                         Technology advances and consumer preferences
                         driving new channels at unprecedented rates
Key Forces Affecting Marketers
Huge Online and Social   Ever-Growing and Converging
 Consumer Adoption            Marketing Channels              Information
                                                               Explosion
                                                       Business information doubling every 18
                                                       months with unstructured data
                                                       representing 70% of it.
Key Forces Affecting Marketers
Huge Online and Social   Ever-Growing and Converging           Information Explosion
 Consumer Adoption            Marketing Channels




                                                             The Speed of
                                                               Business
                                                       Information traveling at unprecedented
                                                       rates, compounded by rising consumer
                                                       expectations.
Key Forces Affecting Marketers
Huge Online and Social   Ever-Growing and Converging            Information Explosion
 Consumer Adoption            Marketing Channels




                                                                The Speed of Business




                                                       Accountability and
                                                        Need to do More
                                                           with Less
                                                   Economic and competitive pressures putting
                                                   focus on marketing budgets and returns.
Key Forces Affecting Marketers
        Huge Online and Social                  Ever-Growing and Converging      Information Explosion
         Consumer Adoption                           Marketing Channels




                                                                                 The Speed of Business




   Increasingly
  Competitive &
Converging Markets                                                            Accountability and Need to do
Parity markets with limited differentiation .                                       More with Less
Fight for share of wallet.
Key Forces Affecting Marketers
      Huge Online and Social         Ever-Growing and Converging      Information Explosion
       Consumer Adoption                  Marketing Channels




    Brand Health
Less corporate trust compounded by                                    The Speed of Business
brands being publicly scrutinized.
Traditional mass marketing proving
less impactful.




  Increasingly Competitive &
     Converging Markets                                            Accountability and Need to do
                                                                         More with Less
The Marketing Process

                             Mobile Online Finance Risk
                   Call                                   Customer
                    Center                                Service
          In Person                                            Merchandising

      Social                                                           Corporate
                                                                       Affairs

Direct Mail                    Marketing                                 Operations


                                Optimization
      Marketing                    Marketing                   Marketing
      Strategy                     Processes                   Campaigns


                                    Analytics


                               Data Integration

ERP            CRM               EDW           Online         Social        Campaign
The Data Integration & Management Challenge
The Flood Of Data

• Customer data continues to flood the
  organization exponentially

• Progressing from functional to strategic
   – Namely how to capture, integrate, manage, analyze,
     and apply knowledge/insight about customers
   – Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt:

      “We create as much information in two days
      now as we did from the dawn of man through
      2003.”
Structured & Unstructured Data

  • Company data: billing, usage, collections, set-top box,
    customer, web interactions, campaign, and more!
  • Consumer-generated data: Social media, blogs,
    product reviews, and more!

                                           Structured data


                                25%

                       70%            5%

Unstructured data                          Semistructured data
“Big Data” Myths

• Data Volumes are “Exploding”
  –   Did Wal-Mart suddenly sell more stuff?
  –   Did NYSE suddenly do more stock trades?
  –   Did Netflix suddenly rent more movies?
  –   Did Amazon suddenly sell more books?


• This is existing data that
  previously went un-analyzed:
   A. Too large to manage
   B. Too costly to store
   C. Lack of “analytic chops” to capitalize
“Big Data” - Why Now?

                                             Three Vs?
                     Complex, Unstructured     1. Volume
                                               2. Velocity
                                               3. Variety

       Relational




                    The primary driver is Value…
Source: IDC
                                                         .
“Big Data” - Why Now?
• Cost of storage dropping
Data - Prerequisite For Everything Analytical
“You can’t be analytical without data, and you can’t be
really good at analytics without really good data”

                       •   Structure
                       •   Uniqueness
                       •   Integration
                       •   Quality
                       •   Access
                       •   Privacy
                       •   Governance

                       Davenport, Harris, Morison (2010)
                            Analytics at Work:
                         Smarter Decision Better Results
Data Structure / Uniqueness / Integration
       Structure
       •   Data structure affects analysis performance
       •   Transaction systems (tables), data cubes (limitations)
       •   Data arrays
       •   Unstructured data

       Uniqueness
       • Data only your company has access – proprietary
       • Commercially available data – be the industry 1st
       • Create new metrics and data fields


       Integration
       •   Aggregate data from inside/outside your organization
       •   Consolidate silos across departments
       •   Data has to be sourced, cleaned, integrated
       •   Evolve to “one version of the truth”
Data Quality / Access / Privacy
  Quality
  •   Flawed data causes misleading results
  •   To fix problems - look at the data source
  •   Continuous process – data will never be perfect
  •   Start based on business objectives

  Access
  •   Source data and load in a form for analytics
  •   Size or complexities can cause user issues
  •   Speed needs require data warehouse appliances
  •   Sample populations
  Privacy
  •   Guard the information collected
  •   Well defined policies
  •   Privacy laws within territories or industries
  •   Don’t sell information without permission (opt-in)
Data Governance

Governance
• Ensure data is useful for analysis
• Consistent, defined, sufficient quality, standardized,
  integrated, accessible
• Standard definitions and terminology
• Decide on investments
• Owners and stewards
• Analytical data advocates
• Business intelligence competency centers, analytical
  data advocate group, information management
Module 1: The World of Marketing Is
Changing - Are You Being Left Behind?

   1.1 Introduction


   1.2 Competing On Analytics


   1.3 The Data Explosion


   1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research


   1.5 Questions
„The Greatest Job In The World‟
The Challenge of Digital Marketing

• As digital marketing continues to grow more
  significant, new channels add complexity to the
  design of a successful integrated campaign.

  – It’s both a blessing and a curse for when an
    integrated campaign goes viral
  – Key Challenge: How do we do it again?
  – No repeatable formulas
    or clear attribution metrics
Reactive Business Analytics

                                  What’s the best that can happen?


                                                                      Optimization
                                What will happen next?

                                                            Predictive
                                                            Modeling
      What if these trends continue?
                                               Forecasting

   Why is this happening?                Statistical
                                         Analysis
                                Alerts

                     Query                        What actions are needed?
                    Drilldown
          Ad hoc                           Where exactly is the problem?
          Reports
 Std.                             How many, how often, where?
Reports
                        What happened?
Proactive Business Analytics

                                  What’s the best that can happen?


                                                                      Optimization
                                What will happen next?

                                                            Predictive
                                                            Modeling
      What if these trends continue?
                                               Forecasting

   Why is this happening?                Statistical
                                         Analysis
                                Alerts

                     Query                        What actions are needed?
                    Drilldown
          Ad hoc                           Where exactly is the problem?
          Reports
 Std.                             How many, how often, where?
Reports
                        What happened?
Afternoon Workshop Preview
• What if I could?
   – Automate the measurement of sentiment relevant to my
     business goals from digital channels
   – Capitalize on the hidden value in vast amounts of available
     structured/unstructured data associated with my brand
   – Become strategically more proactive to shifting (dynamic)
     consumer trends
The Marketing Process

                             Mobile Online Finance Risk
                   Call                                   Customer
                    Center                                Service
          In Person                                            Merchandising

      Social                                                           Corporate
                                                                       Affairs

Direct Mail                    Marketing                                 Operations


                                Optimization
      Marketing                    Marketing                   Marketing
      Strategy                     Processes                   Campaigns


                                    Analytics


                               Data Integration

ERP            CRM               EDW           Online         Social        Campaign
Module 1: The World of Marketing Is
Changing - Are You Being Left Behind?

   1.1 Introduction


   1.2 Competing On Analytics


   1.3 The Data Explosion


   1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research


   1.5 Questions

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Customer Intelligence & Analytics - Part I

  • 1.
  • 2. Module 1: The World of Marketing Is Changing - Are You Being Left Behind? 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Competing On Analytics 1.3 The Data Explosion 1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research 1.5 Questions
  • 3. • Debbie Mayville – Sr. Solutions Architect, Communications & Marketing Analytics, SAS • David Kelley – Sr. Solutions Architect, Customer Intelligence, SAS • Suneel Grover – Solutions Architect, Integrated Marketing Analytics, SAS – Adjunct Professor, Integrated Marketing Analytics, New York University (NYU)
  • 4. Module 1: The World of Marketing Is Changing - Are You Being Left Behind? 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Competing On Analytics 1.3 The Data Explosion 1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research 1.5 Questions
  • 6. Achieving Success With Business Analytics What’s the best that can happen? Optimization What will happen next? Predictive Modeling What if these trends continue? Forecasting Why is this happening? Statistical Analysis Alerts Query What actions are needed? Drilldown Ad hoc Where exactly is the problem? Reports Std. How many, how often, where? Reports What happened?
  • 7. Business Analytics “The extensive use of data, statistical and quantitative analysis, explanatory and predictive models, and fact- based management to drive decisions and actions.” Davenport and Harris (2007) Competing on Analytics: The New Science of Winning
  • 9. Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge 1. Every problem will generate data eventually. 2. Every company will need analytics eventually. 3. Everyone will need analytics eventually. ...
  • 10. Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge 1. Every problem will generate data eventually. Proactively defining a data collection protocol will result in more useful information, leading to more useful analytics. 2. Every company will need analytics eventually. 3. Everyone will need analytics eventually. ...
  • 11. Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge 1. Every problem will generate data eventually. Proactively defining a data collection protocol will result in more useful information, leading to more useful analytics. 2. Every company will need analytics eventually. Proactively analytical companies will compete more effectively. 3. Everyone will need analytics eventually. ...
  • 12. Three Consequences Of The Data Deluge 1. Every problem will generate data eventually. Proactively defining a data collection protocol will result in more useful information, leading to more useful analytics. 2. Every company will need analytics eventually. Proactively analytical companies will compete more effectively. 3. Everyone will need analytics eventually. Proactively analytical people will be more marketable and more successful in their work.
  • 13. The Business Analytics Challenge Getting anything useful out of tons and tons of data
  • 14. Hope For The Data Deluge + analytical tools = actionable knowledge
  • 15. Changes In The Analytical Landscape Historically… Models Analytical Modelers Management Historically, analytics have typically been handled in the “back office,” and information was shared only by a few individuals.
  • 16. Changes In The Analytical Landscape Historical Changes – Executive Dashboards • Static reports about business processes – Customer Relationship Management (CRM) • The right offer to the right person at the right time – 360-degree customer view
  • 17. Changes In The Analytical Landscape Relational Databases Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Point of Sale (POS) Systems Decision Support Systems – Reporting and Ad Hoc Queries – Online Analytical Processing (OLAP) Performance Management Systems – Executive Information Systems (EIS) – Balanced Scorecard Business Intelligence
  • 18. CRM Evolution • Total Quality Management (TQM) – Product-Centric • Quality: Six Sigma • Total Customer Satisfaction • Mass Marketing • One-to-One Marketing – Customer Relationship • Wallet Share of Customer • Customer Retention • Customer Relationship Management (CRM) – Customer-Centric • Strategy • Process • Technology
  • 19. Changes In The Analytical Landscape Now… Operations Targeting Proliferation of Models Customer Customers Analytical Modelers Service Retail Suppliers Now analytics are being pushed out to the “front office”. There are clear, tangible benefits that management will track. Data mining is a critical part of business analytics. Promotions Employees
  • 20. Idiosyncrasies Of Business Analytics 1. The Data - Massive, operational, and opportunistic 2. The Users and Sponsors - Business decision support 3. The Methodology - Computer-intensive adhockery - Multidisciplinary Data mining can be defined as advanced methods for exploring and modeling relationships in large amounts of data.
  • 21. The Data Experimental Opportunistic Purpose Research Operational Value Scientific Commercial Generation Actively controlled Passively observed Size Small Massive Hygiene Clean Dirty State Static Dynamic
  • 22. The Data: Disparate Business Units Marketing Invoicing Risk Acquisitions Operations Sales
  • 23. Opportunistic Data – Operational data • Typically not collected with data analysis in mind – Multiple business units • Silo-based data environment  This makes business analytics different from experimental statistics and especially challenging
  • 24. The Methodology: What We Learned Not to Do • Prediction is more important than inference 1. Metrics are used “because they work” 2. p-values are directional guides 3. Interpretation of a model might be irrelevant 4. The preliminary value of a model is determined by its ability to predict a holdout sample 5. The long-term value of a model is determined by its ability to continue to perform well over time 6. Models are retired as behavior and trends shifts
  • 25. Using Analytics Intelligently • Intelligent use of analytics 1. Understanding of how marketplace shifts affect business performance 2. Ability to distinguish between effective and ineffective interventions 3. Efficient use of assets, reduced waste 4. Risk reduction via measurable outcomes 5. Early detection of trends hidden in massive data 6. Continuous improvement in decision making
  • 26. Simple Reporting Examples: OLAP, RFM, descriptive statistics, extrapolation Answer questions such as: 1. Where are my key indicators now? 2. Where were my key indicators last week? 3. Is the current process behaving like normal? 4. What’s likely to happen tomorrow?
  • 27. Proactive Analytical Investigation Examples: Data mining, experimentation, empirical validation, predictive modeling, optimization Answer questions such as: 1. What does a change in the market mean for my targets? 2. What do other factors tell me about my target? 3. What is the best combination of factors for maximum profit? 4. What is the highest price the market will tolerate?
  • 28. Data Stalemate • Many companies have data that they do not use or sell to third parties. These third parties might even resell the data and any derived metrics back to the original company! • Story: Retail grocery POS card
  • 29. Every Little Bit… Taking an analytical approach to only a few key business problems with reliable metrics  tangible benefit The benefits and savings derived from early analytical successes  managerial support for more analytics 1. Everyone has data 2. Analytics can connect data to smart decisions 3. Proactively analytical companies outpace competition
  • 30. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition Which residents in a ZIP • Customer loyalty code should receive a • Cross-sell / up-sell coupon in the mail for a new store location? • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection • …
  • 31. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty What advertising strategy • Cross-sell / up-sell best elicits positive sentiment toward the • Pricing tolerance brand? • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection • …
  • 32. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell What is the best next • Pricing tolerance product for this customer? • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection • …
  • 33. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance What is the highest price • Supply optimization that the market will bear • Staffing optimization without substantial loss of demand? • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection • …
  • 34. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization How many 60-inch HDTVs • Staffing optimization should be in stock? • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection • …
  • 35. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization What are the best times • Financial forecasting and best days to have technical experts on the • Product placement showroom floor? • Churn • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection • …
  • 36. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting What weekly revenue • Product placement increase can be expected • Churn after the Mother’s Day sale? • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection • …
  • 37. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting • Product placement Will oatmeal sell better • Churn near granola bars or near • Insurance rate setting baby food? • Fraud detection • …
  • 38. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn Which customers are most • Insurance rate setting likely to switch to a • Fraud detection different wireless provider in the next six months? • …
  • 39. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn • Insurance rate setting How likely is it that this • Fraud detection individual will have a claim? • …
  • 40. Areas Where Analytics Are Often Used • New customer acquisition • Customer loyalty • Cross-sell / up-sell • Pricing tolerance • Supply optimization • Staffing optimization • Financial forecasting • Product placement • Churn • Insurance rate setting • Fraud detection How can I identify a fraudulent • … purchase?
  • 41. When Analytics Are Not Helpful • Snap decisions required Deciding when to run • Novel approach (no previous from danger data possible) • Most salient factors are rare (making decisions to work around unlikely obstacles or miracles) • Expert analysis suggests a particular path • Metrics are inappropriate • Naïve implementation of analytics • Confirming what you already know
  • 42. When Analytics Are Not Helpful • Snap decisions required • Novel approach (no previous Predicting the adoption of data possible) a new technology • Most salient factors are rare (making decisions to work around unlikely obstacles or miracles) • Expert analysis suggests a particular path • Metrics are inappropriate • Naïve implementation of analytics • Confirming what you already know
  • 43. When Analytics Are Not Helpful • Snap decisions required • Novel approach (no previous data possible) • Most salient factors are rare Planning contingencies (making decisions to work for employees winning around unlikely obstacles or the lottery miracles) • Expert analysis suggests a particular path • Metrics are inappropriate • Naïve implementation of analytics • Confirming what you already know
  • 44. When Analytics Are Not Helpful • Snap decisions required • Novel approach (no previous data possible) • Most salient factors are rare (making decisions to work around unlikely obstacles or miracles) • Expert analysis suggests a The seasoned art critic particular path can recognize a fake • Metrics are inappropriate • Naïve implementation of analytics • Confirming what you already know
  • 45. When Analytics Are Not Helpful • Snap decisions required • Novel approach (no previous data possible) • Most salient factors are rare (making decisions to work around unlikely obstacles or miracles) • Expert analysis suggests a particular path Predicting athletes’ • Metrics are inappropriate salaries or quantifying • Naïve implementation of love analytics • Confirming what you already know
  • 46. When Analytics Are Not Helpful • Snap decisions required • Novel approach (no previous data possible) • Most salient factors are rare (making decisions to work around unlikely obstacles or miracles) • Expert analysis suggests a particular path • Metrics are inappropriate • Naïve implementation of Only looking at one analytics variable at a time • Confirming what you already know
  • 47. When Analytics Are Not Helpful • Snap-decisions required • Novel approach (no previous data possible) • Most salient factors are rare (making decisions to work around unlikely obstacles or miracles) • Expert analysis suggests a particular path • Metrics are inappropriate • Naïve implementation of analytics • Confirming what you already Ignoring variables that know might be important
  • 48. The Fallacy Of Univariate Thinking What is the most important cause of churn? Prob(churn) International Daytime Usage Usage
  • 49. Expectations Leading The Analysis • Sophisticated analytics are not immune to personal bias – Selectively fitting models because they place an opinion or agenda in a positive light – Ignoring information that might disprove a hypothesis • Personal bias, whether intentional or not, can diminish the usefulness of analytics
  • 50. Trustworthy Analytics Let the data guide your conclusions – Are my assumptions about the causes of the data patterns warranted? – Should I be trying something different? Assign a cynic to the analytical team whose purpose is to question the assumptions
  • 51. Idea Exchange  Identify several business problems that you could address with analytics  Describe the goal, whether the variables can be measured, how the data could be obtained, and what types of specific questions you would like to address with analytics
  • 52. Case Study – US Telco • Data Deluge: Just Get Started – Low hanging fruit – Continue to build and get smarter – 360 degree view of the customer • Tools: Efficiency & Effectiveness – Data management tools – Analytic tools • Move to data driven insights versus gut reactions • Establish measurement system – Test & Learn Environment
  • 53. Customer Lifecycle – Touch Points
  • 54. Obtaining 360 Degree View Of The Customer Activ- Social ation Firmo- Network graphics Usage Demo- graphics Care Point of 360 Sale Degree Customer Hard- View Service, ware Repair VOD, Network Games Commu- Billing ni- Collect- cations ions
  • 55. Large Telco With Industry-leading Churn Rate Churn Churn Reduction By Reduction Value ($) Reason Equipment 9 bps $121M Usage 16 bps $163M Network 15 bps $158M Active Issue Resolution 11 bps $110M Contract Renewal 25 bps $273M Sales Channel / Credit & 6 bps $87M Collections Total 82 bps $912M
  • 56. Case Study US Telco Business Issue • Company-wide initiative to lower the churn rate among customers • Focus on “high value” or “high value potential” customers • Improve treatment strategy and relevance Solution • Data management • Advanced analytics Results/Benefits • Reduced churn by 40% • Increased customer loyalty and lifetime value • Increase of operational revenues by $1B over 3 years • Ability to uncover dissatisfaction drivers and tailor proactive churn treatments
  • 57. Module 1: The World of Marketing Is Changing - Are You Being Left Behind? 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Competing On Analytics 1.3 The Data Explosion 1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research 1.5 Questions
  • 58. Key BUSINESS Trends Affecting Marketing From Product to Customer • Customer-centric business strategy • The customer experience • 360-degree customer view Finding the Next Origin of Business Growth • Consolidation/mergers/acquisitions • Market expansion • Efficiency & optimization The Regulatory Rise • Increased disclosure and transparency • Privacy and information sharing • Consumer contact rules • Regulatory reform
  • 59. Key CONSUMER Forces Affecting Marketing Consumer in Charge • Rising expectations and more choice • From right time to “real time” • Demographic divide Channel Adoption • Mobile devices and consumer adoption • Web 2.0 and the digital age • Cross-channel usage Huge Online and Social Adoption • Social networking • Consumer-controlled content and channels • Consumer engagement
  • 60. A Broadened Definition of “The Customer”  The Consumer  The Citizen  The Subscriber  The Plan Member  The Patient  The Patron ...applicable across B2C & B2B
  • 61. Customer Intelligence Is Relevant Across Industries Financial Services Insurance Retail Hospitality & Telco & Cable Manufacturing Gaming Government Marketing Service Health & Providers Life Sciences Utilities
  • 62. The Marketer Has An Evolving Mandate Expectation Expectation Deliver a branded Integrated, multi-channel customer experience in/outbound conversations in and outside of in real-time marketing The Marketing Campaign The The Customer Brand Experience Responsibilities Expectation Sustain brand health in a rapidly changing virtual world Insights and Analytics Expectation Unearth and dynamically manage insights to drive action
  • 63. Key Forces Affecting Marketers Huge Online and Social Consumer Adoption 2B people online,100B monthly searches and 600MM people on social networks globally
  • 64. Key Forces Affecting Marketers Huge Online and Social Consumer Adoption Ever-Growing and Converging Marketing Channels Technology advances and consumer preferences driving new channels at unprecedented rates
  • 65. Key Forces Affecting Marketers Huge Online and Social Ever-Growing and Converging Consumer Adoption Marketing Channels Information Explosion Business information doubling every 18 months with unstructured data representing 70% of it.
  • 66. Key Forces Affecting Marketers Huge Online and Social Ever-Growing and Converging Information Explosion Consumer Adoption Marketing Channels The Speed of Business Information traveling at unprecedented rates, compounded by rising consumer expectations.
  • 67. Key Forces Affecting Marketers Huge Online and Social Ever-Growing and Converging Information Explosion Consumer Adoption Marketing Channels The Speed of Business Accountability and Need to do More with Less Economic and competitive pressures putting focus on marketing budgets and returns.
  • 68. Key Forces Affecting Marketers Huge Online and Social Ever-Growing and Converging Information Explosion Consumer Adoption Marketing Channels The Speed of Business Increasingly Competitive & Converging Markets Accountability and Need to do Parity markets with limited differentiation . More with Less Fight for share of wallet.
  • 69. Key Forces Affecting Marketers Huge Online and Social Ever-Growing and Converging Information Explosion Consumer Adoption Marketing Channels Brand Health Less corporate trust compounded by The Speed of Business brands being publicly scrutinized. Traditional mass marketing proving less impactful. Increasingly Competitive & Converging Markets Accountability and Need to do More with Less
  • 70. The Marketing Process Mobile Online Finance Risk Call Customer Center Service In Person Merchandising Social Corporate Affairs Direct Mail Marketing Operations Optimization Marketing Marketing Marketing Strategy Processes Campaigns Analytics Data Integration ERP CRM EDW Online Social Campaign
  • 71. The Data Integration & Management Challenge
  • 72. The Flood Of Data • Customer data continues to flood the organization exponentially • Progressing from functional to strategic – Namely how to capture, integrate, manage, analyze, and apply knowledge/insight about customers – Google Executive Chairman Eric Schmidt: “We create as much information in two days now as we did from the dawn of man through 2003.”
  • 73. Structured & Unstructured Data • Company data: billing, usage, collections, set-top box, customer, web interactions, campaign, and more! • Consumer-generated data: Social media, blogs, product reviews, and more! Structured data 25% 70% 5% Unstructured data Semistructured data
  • 74. “Big Data” Myths • Data Volumes are “Exploding” – Did Wal-Mart suddenly sell more stuff? – Did NYSE suddenly do more stock trades? – Did Netflix suddenly rent more movies? – Did Amazon suddenly sell more books? • This is existing data that previously went un-analyzed: A. Too large to manage B. Too costly to store C. Lack of “analytic chops” to capitalize
  • 75. “Big Data” - Why Now? Three Vs? Complex, Unstructured 1. Volume 2. Velocity 3. Variety Relational The primary driver is Value… Source: IDC .
  • 76. “Big Data” - Why Now? • Cost of storage dropping
  • 77. Data - Prerequisite For Everything Analytical “You can’t be analytical without data, and you can’t be really good at analytics without really good data” • Structure • Uniqueness • Integration • Quality • Access • Privacy • Governance Davenport, Harris, Morison (2010) Analytics at Work: Smarter Decision Better Results
  • 78. Data Structure / Uniqueness / Integration Structure • Data structure affects analysis performance • Transaction systems (tables), data cubes (limitations) • Data arrays • Unstructured data Uniqueness • Data only your company has access – proprietary • Commercially available data – be the industry 1st • Create new metrics and data fields Integration • Aggregate data from inside/outside your organization • Consolidate silos across departments • Data has to be sourced, cleaned, integrated • Evolve to “one version of the truth”
  • 79. Data Quality / Access / Privacy Quality • Flawed data causes misleading results • To fix problems - look at the data source • Continuous process – data will never be perfect • Start based on business objectives Access • Source data and load in a form for analytics • Size or complexities can cause user issues • Speed needs require data warehouse appliances • Sample populations Privacy • Guard the information collected • Well defined policies • Privacy laws within territories or industries • Don’t sell information without permission (opt-in)
  • 80. Data Governance Governance • Ensure data is useful for analysis • Consistent, defined, sufficient quality, standardized, integrated, accessible • Standard definitions and terminology • Decide on investments • Owners and stewards • Analytical data advocates • Business intelligence competency centers, analytical data advocate group, information management
  • 81. Module 1: The World of Marketing Is Changing - Are You Being Left Behind? 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Competing On Analytics 1.3 The Data Explosion 1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research 1.5 Questions
  • 82. „The Greatest Job In The World‟
  • 83. The Challenge of Digital Marketing • As digital marketing continues to grow more significant, new channels add complexity to the design of a successful integrated campaign. – It’s both a blessing and a curse for when an integrated campaign goes viral – Key Challenge: How do we do it again? – No repeatable formulas or clear attribution metrics
  • 84. Reactive Business Analytics What’s the best that can happen? Optimization What will happen next? Predictive Modeling What if these trends continue? Forecasting Why is this happening? Statistical Analysis Alerts Query What actions are needed? Drilldown Ad hoc Where exactly is the problem? Reports Std. How many, how often, where? Reports What happened?
  • 85. Proactive Business Analytics What’s the best that can happen? Optimization What will happen next? Predictive Modeling What if these trends continue? Forecasting Why is this happening? Statistical Analysis Alerts Query What actions are needed? Drilldown Ad hoc Where exactly is the problem? Reports Std. How many, how often, where? Reports What happened?
  • 86. Afternoon Workshop Preview • What if I could? – Automate the measurement of sentiment relevant to my business goals from digital channels – Capitalize on the hidden value in vast amounts of available structured/unstructured data associated with my brand – Become strategically more proactive to shifting (dynamic) consumer trends
  • 87. The Marketing Process Mobile Online Finance Risk Call Customer Center Service In Person Merchandising Social Corporate Affairs Direct Mail Marketing Operations Optimization Marketing Marketing Marketing Strategy Processes Campaigns Analytics Data Integration ERP CRM EDW Online Social Campaign
  • 88. Module 1: The World of Marketing Is Changing - Are You Being Left Behind? 1.1 Introduction 1.2 Competing On Analytics 1.3 The Data Explosion 1.4 Evolving Context of Marketing Analytics & Research 1.5 Questions