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Business Opportunities in Brazil (Ted Tanner) - ULI Fall Meeting - 102811
1. Business Opportunities in Brazil
2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo
October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Moderator
- Luiz Antonio Campos Mello
www.camposmelloadv.com.br
Speakers
- Clay Dickinson
www.joneslanglasallehotels.com
- Pat McCudden
www.hyatt.com
- Ted Tanner
www.aegworldwide.com
- Marcos Lessa Mendes
www.odebrecht.com
2. Business Opportunities in Brazil
2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo
October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Clay Dickinson
Executive Vice President
3. Jones Lang LaSalle - expertise serving a range of needs
Integrated Global Team Servicing Global Companies
Our real estate services Our real estate specialties
• Agency Leasing • Investment Management • Office • Critical environments
• Corporate Capital Markets • Project Development • Retail • Museums
• Development and Asset Services • Shopping centers • R&D centers
Strategy • Property Management • Industrial • Hospitals
• Energy and Sustainability • Real Estate Investment • Hotels • Sports arenas
• Government Services Banking • Mixed use • Transportation centers
• Hotels • Retail
• Integrated Facilities • Strategic Consulting
Management • Tenant Representation
Month 00, 2002 3
4. Jones Lang LaSalle in Brazil
Providing services to iconic companies across all real estate types since 1996
Month 00, 2002
5. Trends in key real estate drivers
Brazil is THE growth market in the Americas; middle class emerging strongly
Brazil’s real GDP growth Brazil’s middle class now
outpacing U.S. growth by two to represents 50% of population, up
four percentage points annually from 38% in 2003
Source: IHS Global Insight, Getulio Vargas Foundation
Month 00, 2002
6. Trends in key real estate drivers
FDI rising as investors seek to capitalize on country’s growth; additional future
upside lies in Brazil’s recently discovered massive oil reserves
Gross FDI to average $58 billion Oil fields discovered off coast of
per year through 2014 Rio de Janeiro conservatively
estimated at 30 to 80 billion barrels.
Production to triple by 2035
Source: IHS Global Insight, Empresa de Pesquisa Energética
Month 00, 2002
7. Trends in key real estate drivers
Upcoming sporting events accompanied by large-scale investment; though not
without challenges
Planned investments for FIFA World Cup (R$ billions) FIFA World Cup host cities spread across country
RR AP
Fortaleza
Natal
AM Manaus PA MA CE RN
PI PB
Recife PE
AC RO AL
TO
SE
MT BA
Salvador
Cuiabá DF
GO Brasília
MG
MS ES
Belo Horizonte
SP
RJ
PR Rio de Janeiro
Curitiba São Paulo
SC
RS
Porto Alegre
Estimated infrastructure spending of US$32 billion for FIFA World Cup and
US$14 billion for Summer Olympic Games
Source: Ernst & Young, Jones Lang LaSalle
Month 00, 2002
8. Overview of real estate trends: office market
Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro office markets encompass 14 million m2;
country’s growth leading to significant opportunity for expansion of stock
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle
Month 00, 2002
9. Overview of real estate trends: retail market
GLA per 1,000 inhabitants (sqm) - 2008
Gross leasable area (GLA) of shopping malls grew 88% over past ten years but
still greatly lags other countries’ on per capita basis, highlighting growth potential
for expansion of shopping malls and big-box stores
Source: ICSC/BR Mall, Jones Lang LaSalle
Month 00, 2002
10. Overview of real estate trends: hotel market
Brazil Lodging Performance – 2003 – 2010
Brazil’s hotel market running on all cylinders with 2010 RevPAR 79% above
2004 level. International investors are evaluating potential of scale roll-out of
branded mid market hotels; for now, front runner Accor still dominating space
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle Hotels
Month 00, 2002
11. Overview of real estate trends: residential market
• 6 million low-end units shortage
• Evolving mortgage market
• Developers going public
• Active JV market
• High volume of launches in all classes
• Land prices quickly increasing
• Going towards main cities
• Supported by government
Source: Jones Lang LaSalle, World Bank
Month 00, 2002
12. Brazil real estate market SWOT analysis
Strengths Weaknesses
– Stable, democratic government and solid macro-economic – Lack of long term financing
fundamentals
– Early termination of typical lease contracts
– Rich natural resources
– Development concentrated in a few cities - southeast
– Demographic bonus
– Not enough infrastructure investments
– Leading recipient of both portfolio and direct foreign investment
– Complex, expensive labor environment
– Evolving capital market
– Difficult tax environment
– Earnings can be repatriated on a tax free basis
– Leasing payment must be in BRL currency
Opportunities Threats
– Rapidly growing middle class – Strong demand for land drives prices up
– Increasingly integrated with global economy – Lack of specialized human resources
– PAC and private infrastructure investment creates commercial – Cap rates compression drive prices beyond and returns below
demand in secondary and tertiary cities acceptable risk-adjusted levels for international investors.
– Increased economic decentralization – Global recession drives commodity prices down
– World Cup, Olympic Games and recently discovered oil reserves – Foreign funds flock home to protect the flank
– Interest of international funds and lenders
Month 00, 2002 12
13. Is there a real estate bubble?
We think there isn’t, here’s why:
• The average use of personal funds for purchasing real estate assets is still very high (around 40%)
• Many purchasers opt to purchase with shorter installments and amortization schedules
• Leverage is relatively insignificant and derivative products are underdeveloped
• Prudent monetary policy and regulation of the Brazilian market after the reforms passed in the 90’s
• Growing price levels indicate heated demand justified by low unemployment and larger salaries
• Increasing factor prices (land, labor and capital) impede supply growth
Month 00, 2002
14. Business Opportunities in Brazil
2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo
October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Pat McCudden
Senior Vice President
15. Grand
Hya)
Rio
de
Janeiro
• Mixed
use
project
with
408
hotel
keys
and
approximately
40-‐50
branded
whole
ownership
residences.
• 46,000
square
meter
site
across
the
street
from
the
beach
in
Barra
da
Tijuca
secIon
of
Rio
de
Janeiro.
• Hya)
purchased
approximately
70%
of
the
land
for
the
development
of
the
Grand
Hya)
Hotel
in
December
2010.
• Hotel
budget
is
approximately
BRL$450
million,
approximately
US
$250
million.
• Approximately
50%
of
the
hotel
development
costs
will
be
funded
via
a
loan
from
the
Brazilian
NaIonal
Development
Bank
(BNDES)
under
a
special
line
of
credit
established
for
the
development
of
new
hotels
that
offers
“below
market
financing”.
16. Grand
Hya)
Rio
de
Janeiro
• Hotel
construcIon
is
anIcipated
to
begin
in
mid
2012
and
be
completed
in
early
2015.
• Design
consultants
are
a
mix
of
internaIonal
and
local
firms.
• Sales
of
the
branded
residences
are
likely
to
begin
in
2012
and
the
developer
of
these
residences
is
seeking
a
sales
price
of
approximately
US$1,600
per
square
foot.
27. Business Opportunities in Brazil
2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo
October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Ted Tanner
Executive Vice President
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40. Business Opportunities in Brazil
2011 ULI Fall Meeting and Urban Land Expo
October 28, 2011 Los Angeles
Marcos Lessa Mendes
Chief Executive Officer
41.
42. The
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