Section one: Concepts, Theory and Methods (10 min) Section Two: Applications and Practice (50 min) Middle East and North Africa overview (10 min) Iran Focus (40 min) Section Three: Q&A and Discussion (60 min) http://webmagazine.unitn.it/evento/sociologia/9402/strategic-foresight

1. Strategic Foresight
From theory to practice
in the MENA region
Iran Focus
Victor Vahidi Motti
University of Trento
18 May, 2016
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2. Content
• Section one: Concepts, Theory and Methods (10 min)
• Section Two: Applications and Practice (50 min)
1.Middle East and North Africa overview (10 min)
2.Iran Focus (40 min)
• Section Three: Q&A and Discussion (60 min)
• http://webmagazine.unitn.it/evento/sociologia/9402/strat
egic-foresight

3. Download the audio recording
You can listen to the audio record of this presentation at
the Google Drive
https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B2xvUx3z5dl-
TU42aS12QkpNb28/view?ts=573c847d

4. Section one
Concepts, Theory and Methods
(10 min)

5. Definitions and overview
Futures Studies defined by Dr. Eleonora Barbieri Masini
Eleonora Masini and Knut Samset (1975)
“Futures studies... is a field of intellectual and political activity
concerning all sectors of the psychological, social, economic,
political and cultural life, aiming at discovering and mastering
the extensions of the complex chains of causalities, by means of
conceptualisations, systematic reflections, experimentations,
anticipations and creative thinking.
Futures studies therefore constitute a natural basis for
subnational, national and international, and both
interdisciplinary and transdisciplinary activities tending to
become a new forum for the basis of political decision
making.”
- Masini E, Samset K. Recommendations of the WFSF General
Assembly.

6. Definitions and overview
Anticipation defined by Dr. Roberto Poli (2015)
An anticipatory behavior ‘uses’ the future in its actual
decisional process. To fix ideas, anticipation includes two
mandatory components: a forward-looking attitude and the use
of the former’s result for action.
A weather forecast in itself is not anticipatory in the sense used
here.
Watching a weather forecast and as a consequence taking an
umbrella before going to work is instead an anticipatory
behavior.

7. Definitions and overview
Strategic Foresight in Slaughter’s (2002) definition:
[It] is the ability to create and maintain a high-quality, coherent
and functional forward view and to use the insights arising in
organizationally useful ways; for example: to detect adverse
conditions, guide policy, shape strategy; to explore new
markets, products and services. It represents a fusion of futures
methods with those of strategic management.

8. Some Key Global Organizations
• UNESCO: Anticipation and Foresight
• UNESCO Chair in Anticipatory Systems
• World Futures Studies Federation
• Association of Professional Futurists
• Millennium Project
• Think Tanks, e.g. RAND Corporation

9. My Divergent and Convergent Framework:
foresight-hindsight > insight > action
• Explorative, System Dynamics, Deep Holistic
Insights
• Normative, Value Focused Thinking, Strategic
Priorities

11. The normative future path represents the
identification of strategic priorities extracted from the
means and fundamental objectives, values and vision
of an organization which is done through Value-
Focused Thinking method and interviews with
senior managers.
The exploratory future path represents the complex
system chains and loops within alternative futures
(Collapse, Growth, Discipline and Transformation)
through the mental model of each analysts and also
based on the building blocks of the futures (events,
trends, images and actions) in different space layers
(global, national and organizational) and STEEP
areas (social, technological, economic, environmental
and political).

12. foresight-hindsight > insight > action
1. Subscribe to or create and maintain a professional database or repository for environmental
monitoring in three planetary, national and organizational layers.
2. Pick a scanning hit form the database and summarize it according to Lasswell’s communication
model.
3. Ask each member of the team to identify key variables in the summary and then link them all in
chains of perceived cause and effect. This will show the roots and consequences of that issue within
the rationale of each four alternative futures or scenarios. A system dynamics software graphic
environment such as Insight Maker could be helpful.
4. Provide a list of key systems insights including critical chains and reinforcing and balancing loops.
5. Search the web for a relevant image that helps build a telling story or useful metaphor for
transformative change.
6. Assess the positive, neutral, or negative impacts of systematic holistic consequences and implications
on all the strategic preferences of the organization.
7. Suggest actions and/or solutions separately for each responsible department in the organizational
structure and label those actions into a category which includes continuous improvements, radical
fundamental change, hedging or insuring, and stabilizing.
8. Use the organization accounting system and its key items to give an assessment of the costs and
benefits of the proposed actions.
9. Report the executive summary of the above to the top management to decide on the proper executive
measures to move forward.
10. Go to step 2 and continue

13. Section Two
Applications and Practice
(50 min)

14. Middle East and North Africa Overview
(10 min)

15. United Arab Emirates
Dubai Foundation of the Future
300 Million USD, 1 Billion Dirham
24 April 2016
http://mostaqbal.ae/
http://01government.com/
The Foundation, called ‘house of wisdom’, was launched by His Highness Shaikh
Mohammad Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, Vice-President and Prime Minister of the
UAE and Ruler of Dubai, on Sunday. Shaikh Mohammad also approved the
setting up of a Dh1 billion Future Endowment Fund to invest in innovation and
perceiving the future. Shaikh Mohammad also approved the Dubai Future Agenda
as a strategic framework for the Foundation. Speaking on the occasion, Shaikh
Mohammad said that shaping the future and making it is no longer a theoretical
concept but a key factor for countries to achieve competitiveness in the global
arena.

16. United Arab Emirates
April 25, 2016 . gulfnews.com >>>
On his personal twitter account, Shaikh Mohammad said that by 2030, 25 per cent of all
transportation trips in Dubai will be smart and driverless, which comes as part of Dubai's
strategy to become the smartest city in the world and achieve a sustainable economy in the
UAE.
May 06, 2016. engineering.com>>>
Dubai Seeks to 3D Print 25 Percent of Its Buildings by 2030. The country will begin by
increasing the use of 3D printing in the construction industry by 2 percent starting in 2019,
with the belief that 3D-printed construction will be valued at approximately USD$817
million by 2025. In terms of medicine, the leader sees the local industry producing teeth,
bones, organs, devices and hearing aids all with 3D printing in the future, anticipating a
total value of approximately USD$463 million by 2025. For the consumer sector, Sheikh
Mohammed sees a value of approximately USD$762 million by 2025, with the local industry
producing 3D-printed household items, optics, jewelry, games and even fast food.

17. Dr. Noah Raford
Advisor at the Prime Minister's Office – UAE
PhD, Massachusetts Institute of Technology. Dept. of Urban Studies and
Planning.
Large scale participatory futures systems : a comparative study of online
scenario planning approaches
This dissertation explores the role that participatory online collective
intelligence systems might play in urban planning research. Specifically,
it examines methodological and practical issues raised by the design and
use of such systems in long-term policy formulation, with a focus on their
potential as data collection instruments and analytical platforms for
qualitative scenario planning.
https://dspace.mit.edu/handle/1721.1/68444

18. Qatar
• The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies will launch Istishraf : The Annual Review of
Arab Future Studies in 2015. With this new annual publication, the ACRPS responds to the
pressing need for a rigorous academic publication devoted to forecasting and future studies in
the Arab region. Thought forecasting and future studies have existed in the Arab region for
decades, the corpus of material now published in the field allows for a critical, methodical
approach to improve the quality of output. In addition to its academic function, Istishraf will
further serve to promote development in the Arab states and strive toward better understanding
of both internal and external factors affecting Arab development.
• The Project to Forecast the Future of the Arab Homeland
• Alternative Arab Futures
• Egypt 2020
• Syria 2025
• Qatar National Vision 2030
• Jordan 2025
• Israel 2020

19. Al-Istishraf
Futures Studies encapsulated in a rich word. The meaning for this
Arabic word includes a cloud of notions, and if you translate it into any
particular word you may lose the linguistic richness of the Arabic word:
Going up on highest ground or guard tower to overlook or oversee the
landscape from the above. Raising your feet or putting your hand above
the eyebrows to better see the distant horizon. Making conjectures
about or investigating or aligning with the future. To be prospective and
sustain such an outlook. Have a window to completely see through it
into an open or closed space. Expecting something with enthusiasm and
excitement. Looking forward and hoping. Knowing and making sense.
The word has family resemblance also with and is very close to the
notion of excellence, pinnacle, nobleness, respect, honor, and take pride,
or welcoming wholeheartedly a guest or a stranger.

20. Al-Istishraf

21. Turkey
• YIRCoF ’11
• Yeditepe International Research Conference on Foresight and
Futures
• August 24 - 26, 2011, Istanbul
• "Theory Building in Foresight and Futures Studies"
• YIRCoF ’09
• Yeditepe International Research Conference on Foresight
• September 4 - 6, 2009, Istanbul
• "Methodological Issues in Foresight Studies"

22. Saudi Arabia
Saudi Vision 2030, a post-petroleum future, a shift to investment, to tourism, to logistics as
major sources of income
Strategic depth in the Arab and the Muslim world, leading power of investment, and a critical
link among the three continents
King Salman of Saudi Arabia has said that an agreement has been reached with Egypt to
build a bridge over the Red Sea connecting the two countries (Asia to Africa link)
APRIL 28, 2016, New York Times>>>
A pledge
to reduce dependence on oil sales, which has made the economy extremely vulnerable to
plummeting oil prices
To decouple the economy from oil without at the same time eroding living standards
to sell shares in the state oil giant, Saudi Aramco, funnel the money raised into a public
investment fund, and
to shift vital services like education, health care and airports to the private sector

23. Iran vision 2025
• Adopted in 2005
• "Islamic Republic of Iran in 2025 is a developed country that ranks first economically, scientifically and
technologically in the region (of South West Asia ).... with constructive and effective international
interactions"
• The Iranian planning experts and officials used internal and external environmental scanning and scenario
planning in their deliberations.
• There were three scenarios primarily based on assumptions about the futures of the economic growth rate.
• The first assumes that during the next 20 years, countries in the South West Asia region will develop by an
average of their 10-year record. To rank first in this vulnerable scenario Iran has to develop by 5.6% annual
growth rate.
• The second assumes that during the next 20 years, countries in the region will develop by their top annual
growth rate. To rank first in this scenario Iran has to develop by 11.5% annual growth rate.
• And the third assumption was that in the next 20 years, countries in the region will develop by an average of
their top record and average of their 10-year record. To rank first in this scenario Iran has to develop by 8.6%
annual growth rate. The latter assumption was both plausible and preferable for the scenario developers and
therefore such an assumption substantiates the official 20-year vision document

24. Balance of Power
Dr. Walid Abdel Hay, professor of international relations and futures studies at Yarmouk
University, Jordan, a leading scholar of futures studies in the Arabic language
A 2013 Arabic article published on Al Jazeera Center for Studies website on the futures of
Iran in 2020.
Uses a multidimensional index for hard (as opposed to soft) power ranking in the region
calculated in terms of : Population, Agricultural product, Human Development, Area, GDP,
Growth Rate, Military Expenditure, Military Power, Applied Research in S&T
1. Turkey, 2. Iran, 3. Saudi Arabia and Israel, 4. Egypt
The Economist Intelligence Unit, Political Instability Index, indicating social unrest potential
1. Turkey, 2. Iran, 3. Saudi Arabia, 4. Israel, 5. Egypt

25. Egypt
• WFSF Fellow & Founding Member
Emeritus Professor Samir Ghabbour
coordinated the Cairo LEALA Pilot. He
worked with Cairo University and the
Institute of African Research & Studies
(IARS) to organize a one-day
"Conference on the Future of African
World Heritage" in November 2013 at
the IARS

26. Egypt
A Future
Wheel for
the impact
of climate
change

27. UN
• The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate
Change (UNFCCC) is an international environmental treaty negotiated
at the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro from 3 to 14 June 1992, then
entered into force on 21 March 1994. The UNFCCC objective is to
"stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level
that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with
the climate system“
• The Paris Agreement -- dubbed COP21 was adopted by all 196 Parties to
the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change in
December 2015. In the agreement, all countries agreed to work to limit
global warming to "well below" 2.0 degrees Celsius (3.6 Fahrenheit)
compared to pre-industrial levels.

28. Morocco
• Mahdi Elmandjra, (1933- 2014) was a leading Arab, Muslim, and Moroccan
futurist, economist and sociologist
• Morocco INDC (intended nationally determined contribution):
• An unconditional 13% reduction on business as usual emissions by 2030, with a
conditional 32% reduction if Morocco receives “new sources of finance and
enhanced support”
• The 22nd session of the Conference of the Parties (COP 22) to the UNFCCC is
expected to take place November 7 - 18, 2016. Morocco offered to host this COP.
• In June 2015, the Government of Morocco submitted its intended nationally
determined contribution (INDC) to the UNFCCC, announcing targets of reducing
its greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 32% by 2030 compared to business-as-
usual (BAU) projected emissions and reaching over 50% of installed electricity
production capacity from renewable sources by 2025.
• The plant will have a 500 megawatt (MW) generating capacity….It is expected to
supply electricity to 1.1 million Moroccans, increase Morocco's installed capacity
of renewable energy from 22 MW in 2013 to 522 MW, a 2,272.7% increase, and cut
carbon emissions by 760,000 tons per year.

29. IRES in Morocco
Considering the context of rapid globalization and the
several transitions of the national environment, Morocco has
decided to contend with this complexity as a whole and to
develop anticipation-based expertise. It is within this
framework that the Royal Institute for Strategic Studies
(IRES) was established in November 2007.

30. Key points about the future agenda of the region
• Security and Political Stability (Nationally)
• Balance of Power (Regionally)
• Science and Technology Leadership (Regionally to Globally)
• Post Oil Economy, move to Renewable Energies (Glonacally)
• Climate Change, mitigation and adaptation (Globally)

31. Why USA disengagement?
A Conjecture
• Less dependence on the Middle East oil
• Avoid imperial overstretch
• Prepare a hostile strategy to contain China's rise

32. Iran Focus
(40 min)

33. A note on the calendar
The official calendar of Iran: Solar Hijri calendar
To convert the Solar Hijri year into the equivalent
Gregorian year add
621
Example:
1395 = 2016 - 2017

34. A quick review of some indicators
GDP per capita MENA and IRAN
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

35. GDP per capita MENA and IRAN
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
‫ایران‬
‫سعودی‬ ‫عربستان‬
‫مصر‬
‫ترکیه‬

36. Inflation in Iran

37. Growth Rate of Iran
-30.00%
-20.00%
-10.00%
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
1338
1339
1340
1341
1342
1343
1344
1345
1346
1347
1348
1349
1350
1351
1352
1353
1354
1355
1356
1357
1358
1359
1360
1361
1362
1363
1364
1365
1366
1367
1368
1369
1370
1371
1372
1373
1374
1375
1376
1377
1378
1379
1380
1381
1382
1383
1384
1385
1386
1387
1388
1389
1390
1391
1392

38. Planning for the near future
In addition to its vision 2025, Iran’s administration uses a “central” five-year planning system,
the sixth five year plan aims at a 8% growth rate for (1395-1399)( 2016-2020)
Key areas of needs for help: Water shortage, growth, regional security, smuggle, technology
transfer, health cover and insurance, environmental degradation, family and aging
population, pension funds
Population 79M to 84M
Target: 900,000 jobs in five years (unemployment rate is double among the educated)
One digit inflation rate is an ideal (latest 12.8%, was more than 30% recently)
More tax collection is also ideal (from 6.5% to 10% Tax/GDP)
Less dependence on oil sale (31.5% to 22%)
Fertility rate (1.7-1.8 to 1.9-2.1)
Unemployment rate target: 7%
Investment/GDP is high, or low productivity (need for help)

39. And sense making of the longer term future
Timeline of Iran 1943-2036 based on Sorokin's Dynamics
In his Social and Cultural Dynamics, his magnum opus,
Sorokin classified societies according to their 'cultural
mentality', which can be "ideational" (reality is spiritual),
"sensate" (reality is material), or "idealistic" (a synthesis of the
two). He suggested that major civilizations evolve from an
ideational to an idealistic, and eventually to a sensate
mentality.
In my case study of Iran apparently there is an almost "decade
long periodicity" in the timeline oscillating between the drive
of ideas and abstracts and drive of material and tangibles.
https://cdn.knightlab.com/libs/timeline3/latest/embed/index.ht
ml?source=18xaZ4DMiX3jJuIfQ2m2IwL5PBZqtFVZ3Oj4DWh
xx6L8&font=Default&lang=en&initial_zoom=2&height=650

40. Closer relationships between Iran and Italy
«Abbiamo un rapporto millenario, che ha visto anche
momenti di difficoltà e tensione... Roma ne è stata un
esempio», ha notato Renzi. Ma lo sguardo è al futuro. Alla
cena (senza vino) era atteso l’amministratore delegato di
Eni. Il presidente iraniano è desideroso di mostrare un
nuovo volto del suo Paese non solo come mercato
appetibile, ma anche come modello di stabilità nel caos
del Medio Oriente e come perno fondamentale per gli
equilibri regionali e la lotta al terrorismo.
Corriere Della Sera di Viviana Mazza, 25 Gennaio 2016

41. A select list of Iranian groups ready to join Italian groups
1.University of Tehran’s International Campus - Kish Island (is
open to joint degrees, exchange programs)
2.MahMag World Literature. Magazine of culture, arts and
humanities (Italian Iranians network of professionals)
3.Kian Sharif Group (helps knowledge-based firms via business
consulting and valuation)
4.Mavara Group (provides investment insight reports, business
intelligence, economic, social, cultural, technological forecasts)
5.Tadvin Niroo (industrial construction contractor company)
6.Science & Technology Think Thank of the Contemporary World
(offers services in e-learning, futures studies, general and
specialized courses for professional development)

42. Section Three
Q&A and Discussion
( 60 min)
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43. Biography
Victor Vahidi Motti, also known as Vahid Vahidi Motlagh, trained as a civil engineer at Sharif University of Technology, is the
founder and editor of the website Vahid Think Tank, a member of the Executive Board of the World Futures Studies Federation
(WFSF), instructor of the WFSF-endorsed course Applied Introductory to The Art and Science of Futures Studies, member of the
Editorial Board of the World Future Review scholarly journal by Sage publication, a member of the Judge Committee of the
Association of Professional Futurists Student Recognition Award, co-author of the book The Future of Business, and in 2013, he
received the World Futures Studies Federation’s President’s Outstanding Young Futurist Award. He is quadrilingual and reads
English, Arabic, Farsi, and Italian. Was also Editor-in-Chief of The Persian Encyclopedia of Future with over 150 entries.
He was an invited scholar to speak at International Conferences: a) 2011, April: Italy, Reconciling Babel: Education for
Cosmopolitanism, b) 2010, November: Taiwan, Global Transitions and Asia 2060: Climate, Political-Economy, and Identity. He
has translated a dozen of key foresight texts into Farsi and published widely on a huge range of different topics, from the study
of the brain and consciousness, to diverse areas of technology, global issues, environmental and ecological challenges, methods
of strategic foresight, and ethical concerns as they pertain to contemporary affairs and future possibilities.
Main works
The Future of Business, Fast Future Publising, 2015
An Operational Process for Organizational Foresight and Anticipation, World Future Review, 2016
Evolving Cultural Identities in a Planetary Era, World Future Review, Vol 7, 2015, pp 224-229
"The futures meme: A new generation perspective", Futures, Vol. 45, January, 2013, pp 62-72
• "Shaping the futures of global nonkilling society", Nonkilling Futures-Visions, 2012, p 99
• "Global and placeless brains: a third culture perspective", RICOMPORRE BABELE, 2011, p 173
• "Ta'wil Al-Ahaadith: A philological perspective to semantic roots of strategic foresight in ancient Arabic", Journal of Futures
Studies, Vol. 17 Nr. 2, December 2012, pp 101-110
• "Which global prospect to bet on: rosy or gloomy", Journal of Futures Studies, Vol. 16 Nr. 2, December, 2011, pp 149-154
• "Asia's Exotic Futures in the Far beyond the Present", Journal of Futures Studies,Vol. 15 Nr. 2, November, 2010, pp 1-16.