What is Scenario Planning, and how do you do it? Check out futurist Anders Sorman-Nilsson's slide deck for a structured yet imaginative process for Scenario Planning. For more information, visit www.thinquetank.com

1. Scenario Planning by Anders Sorman-Nilsson of Thinque

3. Scenario Planning - 2020 Vision
Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is
the founder of Thinque - a strategy
think tank that helps executives and
leaders convert disruptive questions
into proactive, future strategies.
As an Australian-Swedish futurist
and innovation strategist he has
helped executives and leaders on 4
continents map, prepare for, and
strategise for foreseeable and
unpredictable futures.
www.thinquetank.com

4. What are the certainties for the future?
What are the uncertainties for the future?
How confident are we?
Certainties v Uncertainties

5. Certainties v Uncertainties

6. Define the Question
What is the
of
in the next years?

7. List the Driving Forces
What are the key uncertainties and forces that will shape the
future in predictable and unpredictable ways? Look at variables,
trends and events that impact it.
Think about your question from STEEP perspectives:
Socio-Cultural
Technological
Environmental
Economic
Political

8. List the Driving Forces
1
2
List Driving Forces
3
4
5 eg.
6 • pace of change
7 • new entrants
8 • state of the economy
• digitisation
9
• industry consolidation
10

9. List the Driving Forces
Highest 1
2
List Driving Forces
3
Importance
4
5
6
7
Prioritise
8 the Top 2
9
Lowest 10

10. Top 2
Uncertainty High
Dimensions
Narrow Wide
Low

11. Top 2
Uncertainty
Dimensions

12. High
Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Narrow
Wide
Scenario 4 Scenario 3
Low

13. Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Name
Newsflash
Dynamics
Recommendations
Scenario 4 Scenario 3

14. Our Scenario
1. Create imaginary, but believable news
stories
2. Newsflash 2018
3. Title
4. Story
5. Dynamics
6. Themes
7. Recommendations

15. Our Scenario
Questions:
• What events led to this scenario?
• Looking back from the future, how did this scenario
come to be?
• Are you stories relevant, surprising, divergent, yet
plausible?
• What could happen over the next 5 years?

16. Our Scenario Implications

17. Our Scenario Themes

18. Our Scenario Actions

19. Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Implications
Themes
Actions
Scenario 4 Scenario 3

20. Scenario 1 Scenario 2
Track
Research
Rank
Scenario 4 Scenario 3

21. Emergent Themes

22. Who is Anders?
Anders Sorman-Nilsson (LLB MBA) is the founder of Thinque - a strategy think tank that helps
executives and leaders convert disruptive questions into proactive, future strategies.
As an Australian-Swedish futurist and innovation strategist he has helped executives and
leaders on 4 continents map, prepare for, and strategise for both foreseeable and unpredictable
futures. Since founding Thinque in 2005, he has worked with and spoken to clients like Xerox,
Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Cisco, Eli Lilly, SAP, IBM, ABN Amro Bank, Commonwealth Bank,
McCann Erickson and BAE Systems, across diverse cultural and geographic contexts.
Anders is an active member of TEDGlobal (Oxford 2009 / Edinburgh 2011), has keynoted at
TEDx, guest lectured at University of Technology Sydney Business School, and Anders is on the
prestigious 2013 Million Dollar Roundtable roster. He is a member of the University of Sydney
Global Executive MBA cohort, and has completed executive education at Stanford University and
the Indian Institute of Management, Bangalore.

23. Enquire now www.anderssorman-nilsson.com

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