Fatih birol's presentation slides from the 2010 World National Oil Companies Congress that took place in June in London.

1. © OECD/IEA - 2010
Seven Remarks on Global Oil
Outlook
Dr. Fatih Birol
IEA Chief Economist

2. © OECD/IEA - 2010
Drivers of global oil demandDrivers of global oil demand
OECD oil demand peaked
Since 2004, all the growth in oil demand came from transportation
sector
Since 2004, China (2.1 mb/d) & Middle East (1.3 mb/d) were key
drivers of global oil demand growth, while OECD demand fell by
4.5 mb/d
Economy is by far the most important driver

3. © OECD/IEA - 2010
What could affect the global oil demand outlook?What could affect the global oil demand outlook?
Pace and strength of economic recovery
A hike in prices?
Subsidy phase out in key consuming countries
Greater fuel economy – advanced car technologies

4. © OECD/IEA - 2010
Decline rates are of critical importance toDecline rates are of critical importance to
future upstream oil investment needsfuture upstream oil investment needs
Even if oil demand was to remain flat to 2030, 45 mb/d of capacity – roughly four times
the capacity of Saudi Arabia – would ne needed just to offset decline from existing fields.
World oil production
NGLs
Unconventional oil
Crude oil – fields yet to be developed
or found (including new EOR)
Crude oil – currently producing fields
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2000 2008 2030
mb/d

5. © OECD/IEA - 2010
A sea change: world oil productionA sea change: world oil production
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2008 2015 2030
mb/d
NOCs
Private companies
Almost 80% of the projected increase in output of oil comes from
national companies – with significant implications on oil markets

6. © OECD/IEA - 2010
Worldwide upstream oil & gas Worldwide upstream oil & gas
investment is to rebound slightlyinvestment is to rebound slightly
Global upstream spending fell in 2009, for the first time in a decade, by over $90 billion
in 2009, but is set to bounce back by around 10% in 2010 on current plans
* Planned spending (preliminary estimate)
0
100
200
300
400
500
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010*
Billiondollars
19%
c.10%

7. © OECD/IEA - 2010
What future for Iraqi oil?What future for Iraqi oil?
Iraq: a decisive driver of global oil markets in the coming decade?
Iraqi oilfields are mostly technically straightforward and relatively
cheap to develop
The very rapid expansion claimed by politicians is overly optimistic
but even e.g. a doubling of current production would have significant
impact on oil markets
For most IOCs large‐scale investment opportunities elsewhere are
very limited
Main challenges: security, infrastructure, water and personnel

8. © OECD/IEA - 2010
Macondo oil spill and beyondMacondo oil spill and beyond……
Huge uncertainties about the real impact on oil industry
New regulations ‐ cost implications – delays?
Over ¾ of non‐OPEC supply additions expected to come from
off‐ shore
Accelerating the dominance on (on‐shore) NOCs?