Electoral Consequences of Unemployment Experiences
1. Electoral Consequences of
Unemployment Experiences
Ithaca, April 6, 2009
Cornell Institute for European Studies
Thorsten Faas
University of Mannheim
Email: Thorsten.Faas@uni-mannheim.de
2. Schlozman/Verba 1979: Injury to Insult
1
General Objective Subjective Politiciza- Policy Level and
Model Condition Strain tion of the preferences direction of
strain and political
programs activity
Specific Unemploy- Sense of Perception Preference Issue voting;
Model ment and/or economic that for economic electoral
low socio- dissatis- government policies activity
economic faction and is respon- designed to
status deprivation sible ease problem
3. I Unemployment Experiences
II Perceptions of Economy
III Attributions of Responsibility
IV Electoral Consequences
4. Unemployment Experiences
3
Unemployment ...
• … as a discrete characteristic • … as a characteristic of
of individuals social/regional units
• … ranging from short-term • … ranging from individuals‘
to long-term experiences household to network to
regional contexts to the
• ... also fear of
national economy
unemployment as a relevant
experience • Concentric circles
5. Unemployment Experiences: Being Unemployed
4
1980
1982
1984
East G. West G.
1986
1988
1990
1991
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Percent
Unemployed at time of interview
Unemployed anytime during last 10 years
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ only
6. Unemployment Experiences: Staying Unemployed
5
1980
1982
1984
1986
East G. West G.
1988
1990
1991
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
260 208 156 104 52 0 52 104 156 208 260
Weeks
Completed Length (currently employed)
Completed Length (currently not employed)
Present Length (currently unemloyed)
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+, who
have been unemployed during the last 10 years only
7. Unemployment Experiences: Fear of Unemployment
6
1980
East G. West G.
1991
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2004
2006
50 40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40 50
Percent
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+, who
are currently employed
8. Unemployment Experiences: Household Perspective
7
1983
1984
1985
1986
East G. West G.
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
40 30 20 10 0 10 20 30 40
Percent
R unmployed (monthly basis)
HH member unemployed (monthly basis)
HH member unemloyed (yearly basis)
Source: German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP), German citizens aged 18+ only
9. Unemployment Experiences: Network Perspective
8
1994
1995
1996
1997
East G. West G.
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
75 50 25 0 25 50 75
Percent
Source: Politbarometer, German citizens aged 18+ only
10. Unemployment Experiences
9
• To fully understand the relevance of unemployment from a
political science perspective, but also a political
perspective, one should apply a differentiated view
• Simply focusing on the number of people currently
unemployed is too short-sighted
11. I Unemployment Experiences
II Perceptions of Economy
III Attributions of Responsibility
IV Electoral Consequences
12. Perceptions of the Economy
11
• ÊHow does the electorate internalize the objective economy and
transform it into a subjective economy?” (de Boef/Kellstedt 2004: 633)
– and what is the role of unemployment experiences?
• Concerning such perceptions, one should (in line with the literature)
distinguish ...
– by the time frame used (retrospective, present, prospective)
– by the object that is being evaluated (individual, regional, national
economy)
• Unemployment experiences should have a strong impact on
perceptions of the retrospective development and the present state of
the economy (pertaining to an individual‘s situation, but also the
national situation); fear of unemployment should have an impact on
prospective ones
13. Perceptions of Individuals’ Situation (East G.)
12
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
-1 -.5 0 .5 1
Perceptions of current situation
Unemployed
Not employed
Employed
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ only
14. Perceptions of Individuals’ Situation (West G.)
13
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
-1 -.5 0 .5 1
Perceptions of current situation
Unemployed
Not employed
Employed
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ only
15. Perceptions of Prospective Situation (East G.)
14
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2004
2006
-1 -.5 0 .5 1
Perceptions of prospective situation
Not worried
Worried
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ only
16. Perceptions of Prospective Situation (East G.)
15
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2004
2006
-1 -.5 0 .5 1
Perceptions of prospective situation
Not worried
Worried
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ only
17. Perceptions of National Economic Situation
16
• In relation to
national
1
1
unemployment
Average Perception of current situation
Inverse of unemployment rate
.75
.5
• Multilevel model
(using the temporal
.5
0
context as level 2)
.25
-.5
• Strong and
significant effect of
-1
0
national employment 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
Jahr
rate on perceptions Average Perceptions
of the national Inverse of unemployment rate (right axis)
economy
Source: German General Social Survey (Allbus), German citizens aged 18+ only
18. I Unemployment Experiences
II Perceptions of Economy
III Attributions of Responsibility
IV Electoral Consequences
19. Attributions of Responsibility
18
• Are individuals willing to and capable of linking
perceptions of economic situations to governmental action
• Do they attribute responsibility?
• institutional as well as psychological contingency
dilemmas
• What are the determinants of attributed responsibility?
20. Determinants of Attributions of Responsibility
19
• ÊDefensive attributions“
• ÊMorselizing“
• ÊContextualization“
• Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and
cultural predispositions
• Campaigns
21. Data
20
• Rolling Cross-Section Survey covering the final 41 days of
the 2005 German Federal Election campaign (n=3,583)
• Items:
– “What do you think, to what extent is the ruling
government responsible for the development of this
economic situation: to a large extent, to some extent or
not at all?”
– Êthis economic situation“ refers to
• Individual’s own economic situation
• Situation of the national economy
22. Data
21
• ÊDefensive attributions“ Perceived State of
own and national economic
Situation
• ÊMorselizing“
• ÊContextualization“ Interaction term
• Political sophistication, partisan rationalizations and
cultural predispositions Interest in Politics,
Party Identification,
• Campaigns Left-Right-Placement
Time
23. Development of Level of Attributed Responsibility
22
1
Mean Level of Attribution
.5
0
13.8. 20.8. 27.8. 3.9. 10.9. 17.9.
date
Individual's economic situation Nation's economic situation
24. Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for …
23
… Individual Economic Situation … National Economic Situation
Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ.
Nat. Econ. Nat. Econ.
Interest Interest
Left-Right Left-Right
PI: SPD PI: SPD
PI: Union PI: Union
PI: other PI: other
day day
interaction interaction
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4 -4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
logit coefficients logit coefficients
25. Determinants of Attributed Responsibility for …
24
… Individual Economic Situation
Ind. Econ.
Nat. Econ.
Interest
Left-Right
PI: SPD
PI: Union
PI: other
day
interaction
-4 -3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 4
logit coefficients
26. Predicted Probabilities
25
1
.8
probability
.6
.4 .2
0
0 .2 .4 .6 .8 1
Individual economic situation
National economic situation ...
... very poor ... good
... poor ... very good
... average
27. I Unemployment Experiences
II Perceptions of Economy
III Attributions of Responsibility
IV Electoral Consequences
28. Consequences of Perceptions of Economic Situations
27
• Kinder/Kiewiet (1979): sociotropic vs. pocketbook voting
• Empirically, sociotropic voting prevails
• Additionally: policy-oriented voting according to which
certain parties “own” specific issues, e.g. left parties “own”
unemployment issue, tend to be supported by people
making unemployment experiences
53. But when including attributions of responsibility …
52
... feelings towards Social Democrats
Nat. Econ. Nat. Econ. Nat. Econ.
Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ. Ind. Econ.
Resp. Nat. Econ. Resp. Nat. Econ. Resp. Nat. Econ.
Resp. Ind. Econ. Resp. Ind. Econ. Resp. Ind. Econ.
Ind. Econ. X Resp. Ind. Econ. X Resp. Ind. Econ. X Resp.
-2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2 -2 -1 0 1 2
unstand. regression coefficients unstand. regression coefficients unstand. regression coefficients
54. Conclusions
53
• Unemployment experiences can take on several forms and should be
studied in a differentiated way
• Unemployment experiences leave their imprint on perceptions of
economic situations on different layers
• Attributions of responsibility:
• Should be studied as dependent variables to understand the
mechanisms that lead to attributions of responsibility
• Should be included in economic-voting models due to their nature
as intervening variables
• Policy-, but also incumbency-oriented effects of unemployment
depending on party and political context
55. Thank you!
54
• Contact:
Thorsten Faas
University of Mannheim
A5, 6
68131 Mannheim
Germany
Thorsten.Faas@uni-mannheim.de
www.thorsten-faas.de
