Cohort analysis the basics

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Presentation on cohort analysis as a better alternative to growth metrics for startups that are pre-market fit. Presented at Imperial College, London in Feb 2012.

Business Wirtschaft & Finanzen

Measuring success: Cohorts and
Product/Market Fit

a.k.a WTF are we doing and why!?

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

A bit about me
• Founder - Crashpadder.com (Sold to Airbnb)
• Organiser – Failboat London
http://www.meetup.com/Failboat-London/

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Summary
• What is a startup?
• What is your startup?
• How do most measure success?
• How should you measure success?
• Corhort analysis?

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

What is a startup?
• “Organisation trying to create value in an
environment of extreme uncertainty.”
• Eric Ries, The Lean Startup

If you’re a disruptive startup, uncertainty is x10:
– Product fit
– Model
– Value Hypothesis

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

What are you doing?
• Name?
• Model/elevator?
• Stage?
• Founders – Tech/Commercial/Other

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Measuring progress
What is usual?
• Users
• Revenue
• Basket value
• Dwell/stickiness

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

What are you measuring?
Who’s feeling brave?

Be honest – NOT what should you be measuring.

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Measuring progress
Revenue
140
What does this actually
tell us about the
120 company’s growth?
100

80
What might better
60 metrics be?
40

20

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Product/market fit
“Being in a good market with a product that
satisfies the needs of that market.”
- Marc Andreessen

Users
3500

3000

2500

2000

1500 Users Aka ‘The Hockey Stick’
1000

500

0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Problem/solution hypothesis
• Who is this for?
• What pain are you solving?
• What is their current solution?
• Why is yours better?
• Do they care?

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

What should you be measuring?
• Lifetime value of new users
• How has that changed since new features
were added?
• Is our problem/solution hypothesis holding
true?

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

What is the user’s value chain?
Track the lifetime journey of one of your users.

• Register?
• Transact?
• Review?
• Share on social networks?
• Refer/Resell?

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Cohorts
Segmenting your users as a means to assess
whether you are getting better rather than
simply bigger.
- Dan Hill, Technical Ninja @ Crashpadder.com

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

E.g. Cohort Analysis
250

200

150

Jan
Feb

100 Mar

50

0
Visit Register Purchase Recommend

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Summary
Get BETTER, then get BIGGER

(whilst still getting better…..)

@stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

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Cohort analysis the basics

1. Measuring success: Cohorts and Product/Market Fit a.k.a WTF are we doing and why!? @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

2. A bit about me • Founder - Crashpadder.com (Sold to Airbnb) • Organiser – Failboat London http://www.meetup.com/Failboat-London/ @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

3. Summary • What is a startup? • What is your startup? • How do most measure success? • How should you measure success? • Corhort analysis? @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

4. What is a startup? • “Organisation trying to create value in an environment of extreme uncertainty.” • Eric Ries, The Lean Startup If you’re a disruptive startup, uncertainty is x10: – Product fit – Model – Value Hypothesis @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

5. What are you doing? • Name? • Model/elevator? • Stage? • Founders – Tech/Commercial/Other @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

6. Measuring progress What is usual? • Users • Revenue • Basket value • Dwell/stickiness @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

7. What are you measuring? Who’s feeling brave? Be honest – NOT what should you be measuring. @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

8. Measuring progress Revenue 140 What does this actually tell us about the 120 company’s growth? 100 80 What might better 60 metrics be? 40 20 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

9. Product/market fit “Being in a good market with a product that satisfies the needs of that market.” - Marc Andreessen Users 3500 3000 2500 2000 1500 Users Aka ‘The Hockey Stick’ 1000 500 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

10. Problem/solution hypothesis • Who is this for? • What pain are you solving? • What is their current solution? • Why is yours better? • Do they care? @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

11. What should you be measuring? • Lifetime value of new users • How has that changed since new features were added? • Is our problem/solution hypothesis holding true? @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

12. What is the user’s value chain? Track the lifetime journey of one of your users. • Register? • Transact? • Review? • Share on social networks? • Refer/Resell? @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

13. Cohorts Segmenting your users as a means to assess whether you are getting better rather than simply bigger. - Dan Hill, Technical Ninja @ Crashpadder.com @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

14. E.g. Cohort Analysis 250 200 150 Jan Feb 100 Mar 50 0 Visit Register Purchase Recommend @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

15. Summary Get BETTER, then get BIGGER (whilst still getting better…..) @stephenrapoport | Crashpadder.com | @londonFAIL

Cohort analysis the basics

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