This document summarizes a study on changing patterns of pulses trade. It finds that imports of peas have significantly increased, leapfrogging other pulses to become the largest imported commodity. There has been a congruent change between domestic production and imports. The import portfolio has become more dynamic over time in terms of variety and partners. While import penetration of pulses is still lower than edible oils, pulses imports can play an important role in cooling domestic pulse markets. The study utilizes detailed customs data to analyze pulses trade at a granular level. It finds that Canada and Myanmar are major trading partners and exporters of different pulses to India. There is potential to become a net exporter of value-added pulses like chickpeas, based on
IFPRI- changing pattern of trade and its implication on pulses
1. Changing Patterns of Pulses Trade
By
Raj Chandra
Sr. Research Assistant
International Food Policy Research Institute
&
Devesh Roy
Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research Institute
2. Why study pulses trade?
• Trade has significant implication on production,
consumption and resource allocation (land, water,
labor allocations)
• Fact- Biggest changes across commodities in terms of
these markers during trade spike period (beginning
around 2000)
• Several government program aimed at scaling up
production notwithstanding
• Yet pulses trade has not been studied in much detail
• Preemptive question- Are Pulses going to be next
edible oil?? Positive as opposed to a normative
question
3. Pulses-Next Edible Oil??
Portent Signs
Total Quantity Imported- Edible Oil & Pulses
9
Quantity in million tons
8
7
6
5
4
Edible Oil
3
Pulses
2
1
0
Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012
4. Pulses next Edible Oil?
• Import penetration in case of edible oil has reached 50 per
cent
• Import penetration for pulses has increased to 19.6% in 2010.
In odd years equal to quarter share
• India’s fight with high food prices – rely on trade (though not
systematically) to cool markets
• Imports can have a cooling effect on pulse markets – Which
commodity with what consistency
• Inconsistent trade policy
• Need to study trade systematically
4
5. About Data Set
• Study is based on a highly disaggregated 8 digit customs
data – Novel part of the study
• Several details- disaggregated commodity, landing ports,
trading partners, entry timing, volume, value and
retailers
• Apparently a simple task – Made arduous
– Volume not standardized in units of measurement.
– Commodities named differently
Ex: Urad, Udid, Urid, Orid, Black Matpe/Mapte, Black
Gram
– Several different units such as bags, containers,
cartons, boxes, numbers, kgs have been converted
into common denomination
6. Units are not uniform
Product Description
UNIT
E-36 CHANA ROASTED,25KGS,
(SION SR. NO K65) KABULI CHANA 1KG (1403,) 200 X 25 X
1KG
BAG
TOOR DAL (2 LBS) 910 G
PAC
30 CTNS URID DHALL WHOLE
E36 UDAD DAL WASHED (MATPE BEANS), (907 GMS X 20
PKTS),
PCS
600 BAGS TOOR DAL
TDM"" BESAN(CHICK PAES FLOUR) PACKE,D IN PLASTIC &
PAPER PACKIN
QTL
E-36 URAD DAL WHITE (MARSH DAL)
CAS
MOONG DAAL
CTN
BOX
PKG
NOS
7. Salient findings of the study
• Leapfrogging of peas imports
• Congruent changes between domestic production
and imports
• Varietal and partner mix in the import portfolio
dynamic
• The extensive and intensive margin domains vary by
commodity
• Fledgling exports evolving in value added items
8. Transition: 2001 – 2010 (the peas
leapfrog)
% Share in total quantity
imported-2001
Lentils
1%
Moong
13%
Beans
3%
% Share in total quantity
imported- 2010
other
2% Peas
18%
Pigeon
Pea
18%
Chick
Peas
24%
other
2%
Peas
49%
BM
18%
BM
21%
Source: Customs Data
Lentils
7%
Moong
7%
Chick
Peas
4%
Beans
5%
Pigeon
Pea
8%
8
9. Evolution of Trade across Commodity
over Time
Percentage share of different commodity in total import
60.00
Percentage
50.00
40.00
Peas
30.00
Pigeon Pea
20.00
Black Matpe
10.00
0.00
Source: Customs Data
Chick Peas
10. Yellow Peas-Palm Oil of Pulses Market
• “Yellow peas are the palm oil of the pulses market. The way world's cheapest
oil—palm —has set the cap on soya and mustard oils, yellow peas too are
setting the market trend in pulses. Their importance will continue to expand in
the coming years.”
Gaurav Sekhri, MD Tinna Overseas
• Yellow Peas are the lowest priced pulse available in the
world market
• Import price for YP is just Rs15/kg compared to
Rs40/kg for Pigeon Pea
• Attractive for traders
• Used as both raw (dal) and processed (besan)
• Canada is the biggest supplier of yellow pea to India
10
11. List of Exporting Countries
Asia Pacific
Asia Pacific
Europe
Africa
North & South
America
China
Nepal
Russia
Ethiopia
United States
Indonesia
Myanmar
Turkey
Madagascar
Brazil
Iran
Uzbekistan
Ukraine
Tanzania
Peru
Iraq
Pakistan
France
Mozambique
Canada
Hong Kong
Malaysia
Belgium
Malawi
Australia
Sri Lanka
UAE
Great Britain
Uganda
UAE
Thailand
Italy
Kenya
12. Leading Exporters to India
Pulses
Countries
Peas
Canada
Pigeon Pea
Myanmar
Chick Pea
Australia
Black Matpe
Myanmar
Green Gram
Myanmar
Lentils
Canada
13. Evolution of Trading Partner's share
Year 2001
Others
20%
Singapore
5%
Year 2005
Australia
3%
Canada
21%
United
States
3%
Tanzania
4%
Iran
10%
Myanmar
41%
Source: Customs Data
Myanmar
36%
Others
14%
Australia
3%
Canada
40%
14. Evolution of Trading Partner’s share
year 2012
Others
23%
Australia
10%
Ukarine
1% France
3%
Tanzania
2%
United States
3%
Canada
28%
Russia
13%
Source: Customs data
Myanmar
17%
15. Why study Export?
• Around 2-3 per cent of total production is exported every year.
• Annual growth rate of 23 per cent for volume and 32 per cent for
value of export, between 2000-2012
• Prices could have increased at a higher rate than quantity exported
• Imports and Exports are linked through intermediary inputs-Scope
for Intra-industry trade
• Whether we have comparative advantage in exporting processed
pulses?
• Earning of 300 million US dollars in 2012
• Can India become a net exporter of pulses like happened in case of
cotton?
• Global exporter and second largest cotton producer in the world
16. Any lessons from Cotton Industry?
Cotton- From Net Importer to Net Exporter
Quantity in thousand tonnes
2500
2000
1500
Export
Import
1000
500
0
2001-03
2004-06
2007-09
Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012
2010-11
17. Trade Policy for Exports
• Initially export was prohibited for 6 months in
June’2006
• Prohibition was extended from time to time
• According to latest DGFT notification prohibition is
extended till 31st March,2014 with two exceptions:
Export of Kabuli Chana (allowed in March 2007)
10,000 MTs of organic pulses and lentils per annum
• Prohibition also exempts countries like Srilanka,
Bhutan, Maldives, Mauritius and Nepal for some fixed
quantity per annum .
18. Share of different Varieties in Total
Exports
Percentage Share in Total Exports (2012)
Moong
3%
Pigeon Peas
8%
Black Matpe
11%
Lentils
3%
Chick Peas
47%
Beans
28%
19. Chick Peas-From Net Import to Net
Export
• Chick peas exports constitutes 40-47% of total
pulses exports (since 2007)
• Around 2% of total production is exported
every year.
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0
Chick Pea Export
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
Chick Pea Import
2000
Quantity in Million Tons
Chick Pea- Export and Import
20. Export evolving in value added
pulse items
Year
Unit Value- Exports ($/ton) Unit Value-Imports ($/ton)
2000
468
428
2001
682
343
2002
842
260
2003
853
213
2004
269
288
2005
557
347
2006
741
370
2007
717
477
2008
846
522
2009
739
548
2010
696
474
21. Policy Implications
• Commodity wise detailed information
• Knowledge about the intensive and extensive
margins of trade
– Important for market power considerations
– Important for spreading out risk
• Trade crowding in or crowding out domestic
production
• Resource allocation
• Trade and availability of pulses across varieties
• Trade’s Proactive/Reactionary effect