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Changing Patterns of Pulses Trade

By
Raj Chandra
Sr. Research Assistant
International Food Policy Research Institute
&
Devesh Roy
Research Fellow
International Food Policy Research Institute
Why study pulses trade?
• Trade has significant implication on production,
consumption and resource allocation (land, water,
labor allocations)
• Fact- Biggest changes across commodities in terms of
these markers during trade spike period (beginning
around 2000)
• Several government program aimed at scaling up
production notwithstanding
• Yet pulses trade has not been studied in much detail
• Preemptive question- Are Pulses going to be next
edible oil?? Positive as opposed to a normative
question
Pulses-Next Edible Oil??
Portent Signs
Total Quantity Imported- Edible Oil & Pulses
9
Quantity in million tons

8
7
6

5
4

Edible Oil

3

Pulses

2
1
0

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012
Pulses next Edible Oil?
• Import penetration in case of edible oil has reached 50 per
cent
• Import penetration for pulses has increased to 19.6% in 2010.
In odd years equal to quarter share
• India’s fight with high food prices – rely on trade (though not
systematically) to cool markets
• Imports can have a cooling effect on pulse markets – Which
commodity with what consistency
• Inconsistent trade policy
• Need to study trade systematically

4
About Data Set
• Study is based on a highly disaggregated 8 digit customs
data – Novel part of the study
• Several details- disaggregated commodity, landing ports,
trading partners, entry timing, volume, value and
retailers
• Apparently a simple task – Made arduous
– Volume not standardized in units of measurement.
– Commodities named differently
Ex: Urad, Udid, Urid, Orid, Black Matpe/Mapte, Black
Gram
– Several different units such as bags, containers,
cartons, boxes, numbers, kgs have been converted
into common denomination
Units are not uniform
Product Description

UNIT

E-36 CHANA ROASTED,25KGS,
(SION SR. NO K65) KABULI CHANA 1KG (1403,) 200 X 25 X
1KG

BAG

TOOR DAL (2 LBS) 910 G

PAC

30 CTNS URID DHALL WHOLE
E36 UDAD DAL WASHED (MATPE BEANS), (907 GMS X 20
PKTS),

PCS

600 BAGS TOOR DAL
TDM"" BESAN(CHICK PAES FLOUR) PACKE,D IN PLASTIC &
PAPER PACKIN

QTL

E-36 URAD DAL WHITE (MARSH DAL)

CAS

MOONG DAAL

CTN

BOX

PKG

NOS
Salient findings of the study
• Leapfrogging of peas imports
• Congruent changes between domestic production
and imports
• Varietal and partner mix in the import portfolio
dynamic
• The extensive and intensive margin domains vary by
commodity
• Fledgling exports evolving in value added items
Transition: 2001 – 2010 (the peas
leapfrog)
% Share in total quantity
imported-2001
Lentils
1%
Moong
13%

Beans
3%

% Share in total quantity
imported- 2010

other
2% Peas
18%

Pigeon
Pea
18%
Chick
Peas
24%

other
2%

Peas
49%

BM
18%
BM
21%

Source: Customs Data

Lentils
7%
Moong
7%
Chick
Peas
4%

Beans
5%

Pigeon
Pea
8%
8
Evolution of Trade across Commodity
over Time
Percentage share of different commodity in total import
60.00

Percentage

50.00
40.00
Peas

30.00

Pigeon Pea

20.00

Black Matpe

10.00

0.00

Source: Customs Data

Chick Peas
Yellow Peas-Palm Oil of Pulses Market
• “Yellow peas are the palm oil of the pulses market. The way world's cheapest
oil—palm —has set the cap on soya and mustard oils, yellow peas too are
setting the market trend in pulses. Their importance will continue to expand in
the coming years.”
Gaurav Sekhri, MD Tinna Overseas

• Yellow Peas are the lowest priced pulse available in the
world market
• Import price for YP is just Rs15/kg compared to
Rs40/kg for Pigeon Pea
• Attractive for traders
• Used as both raw (dal) and processed (besan)
• Canada is the biggest supplier of yellow pea to India
10
List of Exporting Countries
Asia Pacific

Asia Pacific

Europe

Africa

North & South
America

China

Nepal

Russia

Ethiopia

United States

Indonesia

Myanmar

Turkey

Madagascar

Brazil

Iran

Uzbekistan

Ukraine

Tanzania

Peru

Iraq

Pakistan

France

Mozambique

Canada

Hong Kong

Malaysia

Belgium

Malawi

Australia

Sri Lanka

UAE

Great Britain

Uganda

UAE

Thailand

Italy

Kenya
Leading Exporters to India
Pulses

Countries

Peas

Canada

Pigeon Pea

Myanmar

Chick Pea

Australia

Black Matpe

Myanmar

Green Gram

Myanmar

Lentils

Canada
Evolution of Trading Partner's share
Year 2001
Others
20%
Singapore
5%

Year 2005
Australia
3%
Canada
21%

United
States
3%
Tanzania
4%

Iran
10%
Myanmar
41%

Source: Customs Data

Myanmar
36%

Others
14%

Australia
3%

Canada
40%
Evolution of Trading Partner’s share
year 2012
Others
23%

Australia
10%

Ukarine
1% France
3%
Tanzania
2%
United States
3%

Canada
28%

Russia
13%

Source: Customs data

Myanmar
17%
Why study Export?
• Around 2-3 per cent of total production is exported every year.
• Annual growth rate of 23 per cent for volume and 32 per cent for
value of export, between 2000-2012
• Prices could have increased at a higher rate than quantity exported
• Imports and Exports are linked through intermediary inputs-Scope
for Intra-industry trade
• Whether we have comparative advantage in exporting processed
pulses?
• Earning of 300 million US dollars in 2012
• Can India become a net exporter of pulses like happened in case of
cotton?
• Global exporter and second largest cotton producer in the world
Any lessons from Cotton Industry?
Cotton- From Net Importer to Net Exporter

Quantity in thousand tonnes

2500
2000
1500
Export
Import

1000
500
0
2001-03

2004-06

2007-09

Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012

2010-11
Trade Policy for Exports
• Initially export was prohibited for 6 months in
June’2006
• Prohibition was extended from time to time
• According to latest DGFT notification prohibition is
extended till 31st March,2014 with two exceptions:
Export of Kabuli Chana (allowed in March 2007)
10,000 MTs of organic pulses and lentils per annum
• Prohibition also exempts countries like Srilanka,
Bhutan, Maldives, Mauritius and Nepal for some fixed
quantity per annum .
Share of different Varieties in Total
Exports
Percentage Share in Total Exports (2012)
Moong
3%

Pigeon Peas
8%

Black Matpe
11%
Lentils
3%

Chick Peas
47%

Beans
28%
Chick Peas-From Net Import to Net
Export
• Chick peas exports constitutes 40-47% of total
pulses exports (since 2007)
• Around 2% of total production is exported
every year.
0.5
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.1
0

Chick Pea Export

2012

2011

2010

2009

2008

2007

2006

2005

2004

2003

2002

2001

Chick Pea Import
2000

Quantity in Million Tons

Chick Pea- Export and Import
Export evolving in value added
pulse items
Year

Unit Value- Exports ($/ton) Unit Value-Imports ($/ton)

2000

468

428

2001

682

343

2002

842

260

2003

853

213

2004

269

288

2005

557

347

2006

741

370

2007

717

477

2008

846

522

2009

739

548

2010

696

474
Policy Implications
• Commodity wise detailed information
• Knowledge about the intensive and extensive
margins of trade
– Important for market power considerations
– Important for spreading out risk

• Trade crowding in or crowding out domestic
production
• Resource allocation
• Trade and availability of pulses across varieties
• Trade’s Proactive/Reactionary effect
Thank you

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IFPRI- changing pattern of trade and its implication on pulses

  • 1. Changing Patterns of Pulses Trade By Raj Chandra Sr. Research Assistant International Food Policy Research Institute & Devesh Roy Research Fellow International Food Policy Research Institute
  • 2. Why study pulses trade? • Trade has significant implication on production, consumption and resource allocation (land, water, labor allocations) • Fact- Biggest changes across commodities in terms of these markers during trade spike period (beginning around 2000) • Several government program aimed at scaling up production notwithstanding • Yet pulses trade has not been studied in much detail • Preemptive question- Are Pulses going to be next edible oil?? Positive as opposed to a normative question
  • 3. Pulses-Next Edible Oil?? Portent Signs Total Quantity Imported- Edible Oil & Pulses 9 Quantity in million tons 8 7 6 5 4 Edible Oil 3 Pulses 2 1 0 Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012
  • 4. Pulses next Edible Oil? • Import penetration in case of edible oil has reached 50 per cent • Import penetration for pulses has increased to 19.6% in 2010. In odd years equal to quarter share • India’s fight with high food prices – rely on trade (though not systematically) to cool markets • Imports can have a cooling effect on pulse markets – Which commodity with what consistency • Inconsistent trade policy • Need to study trade systematically 4
  • 5. About Data Set • Study is based on a highly disaggregated 8 digit customs data – Novel part of the study • Several details- disaggregated commodity, landing ports, trading partners, entry timing, volume, value and retailers • Apparently a simple task – Made arduous – Volume not standardized in units of measurement. – Commodities named differently Ex: Urad, Udid, Urid, Orid, Black Matpe/Mapte, Black Gram – Several different units such as bags, containers, cartons, boxes, numbers, kgs have been converted into common denomination
  • 6. Units are not uniform Product Description UNIT E-36 CHANA ROASTED,25KGS, (SION SR. NO K65) KABULI CHANA 1KG (1403,) 200 X 25 X 1KG BAG TOOR DAL (2 LBS) 910 G PAC 30 CTNS URID DHALL WHOLE E36 UDAD DAL WASHED (MATPE BEANS), (907 GMS X 20 PKTS), PCS 600 BAGS TOOR DAL TDM"" BESAN(CHICK PAES FLOUR) PACKE,D IN PLASTIC & PAPER PACKIN QTL E-36 URAD DAL WHITE (MARSH DAL) CAS MOONG DAAL CTN BOX PKG NOS
  • 7. Salient findings of the study • Leapfrogging of peas imports • Congruent changes between domestic production and imports • Varietal and partner mix in the import portfolio dynamic • The extensive and intensive margin domains vary by commodity • Fledgling exports evolving in value added items
  • 8. Transition: 2001 – 2010 (the peas leapfrog) % Share in total quantity imported-2001 Lentils 1% Moong 13% Beans 3% % Share in total quantity imported- 2010 other 2% Peas 18% Pigeon Pea 18% Chick Peas 24% other 2% Peas 49% BM 18% BM 21% Source: Customs Data Lentils 7% Moong 7% Chick Peas 4% Beans 5% Pigeon Pea 8% 8
  • 9. Evolution of Trade across Commodity over Time Percentage share of different commodity in total import 60.00 Percentage 50.00 40.00 Peas 30.00 Pigeon Pea 20.00 Black Matpe 10.00 0.00 Source: Customs Data Chick Peas
  • 10. Yellow Peas-Palm Oil of Pulses Market • “Yellow peas are the palm oil of the pulses market. The way world's cheapest oil—palm —has set the cap on soya and mustard oils, yellow peas too are setting the market trend in pulses. Their importance will continue to expand in the coming years.” Gaurav Sekhri, MD Tinna Overseas • Yellow Peas are the lowest priced pulse available in the world market • Import price for YP is just Rs15/kg compared to Rs40/kg for Pigeon Pea • Attractive for traders • Used as both raw (dal) and processed (besan) • Canada is the biggest supplier of yellow pea to India 10
  • 11. List of Exporting Countries Asia Pacific Asia Pacific Europe Africa North & South America China Nepal Russia Ethiopia United States Indonesia Myanmar Turkey Madagascar Brazil Iran Uzbekistan Ukraine Tanzania Peru Iraq Pakistan France Mozambique Canada Hong Kong Malaysia Belgium Malawi Australia Sri Lanka UAE Great Britain Uganda UAE Thailand Italy Kenya
  • 12. Leading Exporters to India Pulses Countries Peas Canada Pigeon Pea Myanmar Chick Pea Australia Black Matpe Myanmar Green Gram Myanmar Lentils Canada
  • 13. Evolution of Trading Partner's share Year 2001 Others 20% Singapore 5% Year 2005 Australia 3% Canada 21% United States 3% Tanzania 4% Iran 10% Myanmar 41% Source: Customs Data Myanmar 36% Others 14% Australia 3% Canada 40%
  • 14. Evolution of Trading Partner’s share year 2012 Others 23% Australia 10% Ukarine 1% France 3% Tanzania 2% United States 3% Canada 28% Russia 13% Source: Customs data Myanmar 17%
  • 15. Why study Export? • Around 2-3 per cent of total production is exported every year. • Annual growth rate of 23 per cent for volume and 32 per cent for value of export, between 2000-2012 • Prices could have increased at a higher rate than quantity exported • Imports and Exports are linked through intermediary inputs-Scope for Intra-industry trade • Whether we have comparative advantage in exporting processed pulses? • Earning of 300 million US dollars in 2012 • Can India become a net exporter of pulses like happened in case of cotton? • Global exporter and second largest cotton producer in the world
  • 16. Any lessons from Cotton Industry? Cotton- From Net Importer to Net Exporter Quantity in thousand tonnes 2500 2000 1500 Export Import 1000 500 0 2001-03 2004-06 2007-09 Source: Agricultural Statistics at a Glance, 2012 2010-11
  • 17. Trade Policy for Exports • Initially export was prohibited for 6 months in June’2006 • Prohibition was extended from time to time • According to latest DGFT notification prohibition is extended till 31st March,2014 with two exceptions: Export of Kabuli Chana (allowed in March 2007) 10,000 MTs of organic pulses and lentils per annum • Prohibition also exempts countries like Srilanka, Bhutan, Maldives, Mauritius and Nepal for some fixed quantity per annum .
  • 18. Share of different Varieties in Total Exports Percentage Share in Total Exports (2012) Moong 3% Pigeon Peas 8% Black Matpe 11% Lentils 3% Chick Peas 47% Beans 28%
  • 19. Chick Peas-From Net Import to Net Export • Chick peas exports constitutes 40-47% of total pulses exports (since 2007) • Around 2% of total production is exported every year. 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0 Chick Pea Export 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 Chick Pea Import 2000 Quantity in Million Tons Chick Pea- Export and Import
  • 20. Export evolving in value added pulse items Year Unit Value- Exports ($/ton) Unit Value-Imports ($/ton) 2000 468 428 2001 682 343 2002 842 260 2003 853 213 2004 269 288 2005 557 347 2006 741 370 2007 717 477 2008 846 522 2009 739 548 2010 696 474
  • 21. Policy Implications • Commodity wise detailed information • Knowledge about the intensive and extensive margins of trade – Important for market power considerations – Important for spreading out risk • Trade crowding in or crowding out domestic production • Resource allocation • Trade and availability of pulses across varieties • Trade’s Proactive/Reactionary effect