30. Role of Portfolio Optimization Process & Tools
for Heavy Oil Technology
Like many organizations, we faced significant
challenges…
• Business needs for technology were not being met in a
timely fashion
• Corporate growth objectives demanding more for less
• Technologists keeping projects alive too long
• Inconsistent project evaluations
• Not enough project failures
• Difficulty comparing projects of different types
• Limitations of thumbs up / down approach to project
prioritization 30
31. The existing portfolio process was primarily a
―roll-up‖ of business cases to justify projects.
Project
Justifications
• Business Cases
Portfolio
Decisions
• Subjective
Factors
This was a competitive, adversarial process, with very little quality in
the data, which severely hampered decision-making.
31
32. CT Heavy Oil met the challenges by implementing a
value-based, portfolio management process.
Value-based, Portfolio Management Process
Project
Evaluations
• Specify & quantify
uncertainty
• Clear standards
• Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
• Transparency
• Credibility &
comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
• Value-based
• Solid information
• Strategic
alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
• Baseline
assessments
• Updates based
on evidence
32
33. A transparent process helped address the
―garbage-in, garbage-out‖ problem.
Commercial Value Given Technical Success
Range of Uncertainty ($million)
Improving Computational Capability
Shearing
LSTS
Performance Prediction
Dow nhole Steam Profile Control
2D NMR
Thin Sand Thermal
Dow nhole Steam Profile - New Wells
Catalyst
Remote Sensing
Steam Inj Well BP
Steam Distribution
Bio-Upgrading
Heat Management
Improve Hydrocoking Process
Well Gauging
High Mobility Ratio Waterflood
HOSGD
Reservoir Opportunity Identification
VAPEX
Cold Flow
Heavy Oil Chemistry
Sulfur & Metals Removal
CASH
-100 0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Project 7
Project 8
Project 9
Project 10
Project 11
Project 12
Project 13
Project 14
Project 15
Project 16
Project 17
Project 18
Project 19
Project 20
Project 21
Project 22
Project 23
Probability of Technical Success
Shearing
Heavy Oil Chemistry
Improving Computational Capability
Bio-Upgrading
Thin Sand Thermal
Sulfur & Metals Removal
VAPEX
Catalyst
High Mobility Ratio Waterflood
LSTS
Improve Hydrocoking Process
Performance Prediction
HOSGD
Steam Inj Well BP
Reservoir Opportunity Identification
Cold Flow
CASH
2D NMR
Dow nhole Steam Profile - New Wells
Heat Management
Remote Sensing
Steam Distribution
Well Gauging
Dow nhole Steam Profile Control
0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80
Project 1
Project 2
Project 3
Project 4
Project 5
Project 6
Project 7
Project 8
Project 9
Project 10
Project 11
Project 12
Project 13
Project 14
Project 15
Project 16
Project 17
Project 18
Project 19
Project 20
Project 21
Project 22
Project 23
Project 24
• Historically this was one of the most
challenging issues
• Process and tools key to overcoming
Project
Evaluations
• Specify & quantify
uncertainty
• Clear standards
• Give teams real
direction
Peer & Expert
Review
• Transparency
• Credibility and
Comparability
Portfolio
Decisions
• Value-based
• Solid information
• Strategic
Alignment
Uncertainty
Tracking
• Baseline
assessments
• Updates based
on evidence
After: a value-based management process
Project Comparison Tools
33
34. The result: acceleration of technology to
business opportunity.
2003 2004 Improvement
New ideas
screened
22 35 60%
Projects
initiated
6 9 50%
Projects
Deployed
1 2 100%
Projects
Terminated
3 6 100%
34