Fluorspar Trade and Prices in 2013 - Simon Moores
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A look at major trade route for fluorspar (acidspar and metspar) and the price trends that have dominated 2013. Includes a focus on Mongolia, China, Europe, and Vietnam
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Fluorspar Trade and Prices in 2013 - Simon Moores
- 1. indmin.com/FluorsparAnalysis Fluorspar in 2013 Changing global trade routes and price trends Simon Moores, Manager, Industrial Minerals Data, Fluorspar 2013, London Simon Moores, Manager, Industrial Minerals Data – smoores@indmin.com
- 3. 1. Overview – Fluorspar in 2013 The world in 2013 The storm is over but the gloom fails to clear… Acidspar • Demand continues to deteriorate across the board • As bad if not worse than 2009 • Prices have collapsed from 2011 highs • Prices down 25% on average Metspar • Global demand sluggish • Demand from China’s steel industry props up industry & prices • Prices more robust than acidspar US government shutdown Storm in Europe Smog in China
- 5. 2. Existing trade routes and price trends Trade route 1: China to the rest of the world Transport method: Sea freight Delivery terms: FOB Product traded: Acidspar, Metspar Situation: A Chinese realignment • Chinese exports have fallen • China’s export prices = collapsed for both acidspar and metspar • …but metspar imports have increased (Mongolia) 2012: 25% H1 2013: 18%
- 8. 2. Existing trade routes and price trends Trade route 2: Mongolia to Russia / China Transport method: Rail Delivery terms: DAP Product traded: Metspar, Acidspar Situation: Supplier to China and • • • • H1 stronger performance than most countries Propped up by metspar demand from Chinese steel = up 9% y‐o‐y (June 2013) H2 slowdown, some fluorspar plants closed 2013 slower than 2012 (420,000 tpa) • International prices now the lowest in the market • Mining costs on average lower than China • China happy to increase reliance on Mongolia to preserve its domestic resources
- 16. 3. The fluorspar highways of the future Future trade route 2: Mongolia to China expansion Expected transport method: Rail Expected delivery terms: DAP Product traded: Metspar Situation: Mongolia rising • China’s reliance on Mongolia as a low‐cost metspar source will increase • Developing new resources will be key • Transport infrastructure investment critical – roads, rail lines • Low cost production will cement long term position Right: Rio Tinto starts to ship copper concentrated from Gobi Desert, Mongolia, June 2013
- 17. 3. The fluorspar highways of the future Future trade route 3: Internal trade routes Expected transport method: Rail, Truck, Barge Expected delivery terms: DAP Product traded: Acidspar, Metspar Situation: Raw material self‐sufficiency • Developing captive supplies for countries / consumers • UK & Germany have opened/developing new mines • UK – re‐opened in Derbyshire • Germany – 2 new acidspar operations in 2014 • 100% reliance on China can no longer be guaranteed • Security in diversity of supply = major issue
- 18. 4. Other defining factors of 2013 • Raw material self sufficiency • Germany • Increase Acidspar output by 55% • New 30,000 tpa Acidspar operation by 2014 • UK • Re‐opening of British Fluorspar mining operation (formerly Glebe Mines/Ineos) • Global trade slows, imports increase into China • A switch? • Europe suffering, US only slightly better, China opportunity • China metspar imports up 25% y‐o‐y in 2012, H1 2013 up again up 18%
- 19. 4. Other defining factors of 2013 • Metspar neglected? • Supply replacement needed in China • Most new projects focus on value‐ added Acidspar • Gap in the market for metspar into China – Mongolia • Acidspar and metspar price convergence • Price declines across‐the‐board outlined • Acidspar’s more rapid decline than metspar, especially in H1 2013 • Gap closes between acidspar and metspar price ($80‐100/tonne)