Scenario Planning to Achieve UNDP's MDG for Honduras

Exploring International Business Environment

TABLE OF CONTENTS PAGE

1. Record of Investigation: Diary of thought, discussion and decision
Diary 02 - 09
2. Honduras: An Overview
verview 10 - 12
3. Identification of Uncertainties 13 - 16
4. Plausible Alternative Outcomes 17 - 25
5. Clustering of Uncertainties 26 - 28
6. Validating Clusters 29 - 39
7. Remarkable Person 40 - 41
8. Impact/ Predictability Analysis 42
9. Framing and Scoping Scenario End States 43
10. Stakeholder Analysis 44
11. Iceberg Analysis 45
12. Scenarios vs. achievement of Millennium Development Goals 46
13. Scenario Stories 47 - 61
14. Identification of Key Indicators (for each of the scenarios)
ndicators 62
15. Bibliography 63 - 64

Scenario Investigation & Analysis – Iteration 2 2


1. Record of Investigation: Diary of thought, discussion and decision (Sheet 1)
iary
Day/ Date EIBE Subject – What actions do we take to address? Action by?
What do we
not know?
Friday, 2nd Getting In evening we meet to discuss what should be the plan By All
October started for iteration 2. We questioned with each other to about
2009 which country to choose. We came to a conclusion
that none of us has any knowledge about country in
central America. So we opted for Honduras as country
for iteration 2 by our rando choice.
random

Then we discussed what should be the approach to do
the research. We divided the whole research into 7
different topic which are as follows:
follows:-

⇒ Cultural
⇒ Economic
⇒ Environmental
⇒ Ethical
⇒ Legal
⇒ Political
⇒ Technological

We discussed within the members that we should have
holistic view of all the topics that we are doing for
Honduras. To get that holistic view we decided that
same topic should be studied and researched by more
than one person to get a multi dimensional view of the
subject mentioned abov in context of Honduras.
above

We divide the topics as follows in the team:
team:-
⇒ Mr. James Mckenna, Mr. Narayanan
Vishwanathan and Mr. Shashwat Sood are
doing research on Economic, Environmental
and Ethical aspects of Honduras.
⇒ Mr. Chandra Shekhar, Mr. Vaibhav Mehta and ta
Mr. Sanil Subhash Chandra Bose are doing
research on Legal, Political and Technological
aspects of Honduras.

We decided that Cultural part will be studied by all
members to get better insight of the country.

Simultaneously, we decided that we will complete our
research within next two days i.e. 3rd and 4th October
2009.

We also decided that we will do our research from
home and we will meet on Monday 5th, 2009 at 9.30
a.m. with our individual presentations to be discussed
presentations,
within the group.
Over the weekend the group e mailed each other with
e-mailed
salient research points to ensure we did not go down
the same dead ends. This was useful and constructive.



Monday, Analysis of We met in the morning and started our presentation to
5th the research the group.
October
2009 Our first hurdle was that the presentation requirement
had been interpreted differently by different members
of the group this was discussed and put down to
experience.

The presentation were given by following sequence:
⇒ Mr. James Mckenna
⇒ Mr. Shashwat Sood
⇒ Mr. Chandra Shekhar
⇒ Mr. Vaibhav Mehta
⇒ Mr. Sanil Subhash Chandra Bose
⇒ Mr. Narayanan Viswanathan

The group noted down the points to be challenged and
those that required more data to support them, while
each member of the team presented.

After completion of the presentation we all discussed
the various factors and analyzed with our individual
knowledge of the subject.

This took long time up until the afternoon when we
finally had a very clear picture of the past and pre
present
situation of the Honduras.

We noted down some questions that needs to be
answered through more research to get a clearer
picture of the country.

Simultaneously, we checked our questions with regard
to Millennium Development Goal (MDG) of UNDP to
align our research in right direction.
ign
We continued to research till 4.30 PM and then started
to write our uncertainties. At 6.30 we had almost
completed the uncertainties.
We discussed how we should validate the uncertainties
so that we would have no ambiguambiguous ones.
It took close to one hour to recheck the uncertainties
individually. After this self checking that we thought we
self-checking
should refine our uncertainties tomorrow.

Simultaneously, we searched for remarkable people
(RP). Everybody was doing individual eff
effort for RP.

1. Mr. James Mckenna contacted following
organizations for RP:
⇒ Amnesty International
⇒ Save the Children
⇒ Medicine Sans Frontier
⇒ Jesiut Mission in London
⇒ Jesiut Mission in Minnesota
⇒ Overseas Development Institute



2. Mr. Shashwat Sood contacted following person
lowing
and organization:
⇒ Mrs. Margret English
⇒ Mr. Jim Wilson-International Office, University
fice,
of Strathclyde
⇒ Mr. Francisco Galeano-Country direct
Country director,
FINCA-small loans, Honduras
⇒ Mr. Miguel Giron-The Children’s rescue
The
Mission, 3 Papp Street, Norwalk CT 06854
T

3. Mr. Narayanan Viswanathan contacted
following person and organization for RP:
⇒ The Ford Foundation, New York
⇒ Dr. Anne Stafford, University of Glasgow.
Director University of Edinburgh, Deputy
dinburgh,
Director CREID

4. Mr. Vaibhav Mehta contacted Honduras
student group alumni Ms. Melissa Sabillon. She
responded by emails, providing deeper insights
on the current socio-economic situation in
economic
Honduras and about the the education system
in country.

5. Mr. Thomas Brian from University of Baylor who
was involved with
th the Village Green
Incorporation in Honduran rural areas. He had
established small hydroelectric power
generators so that village houses could have
electricity for daily use.
Tuesday, Defining and The group met at 9:30 AM and started defining all
6th, validating uncertainties. We decided to do self assessment for our
October uncertainties uncertainties and it should not be ambiguous and must
2009 be uncertain. By the afternoon we made uncertainties
and their outcomes. Post lunch we started with making
clusters.

While making clusters, we realized something is going
wrong in our clusters. We stepped back for a moment
and saw that our uncertainties were ambiguous. The
self-checking on ambiguity of uncertainties had not
checking
been successful. We started validating our uncertainties
as a group and considered whether they were actually
uncertain and were driving forces for change.
We rewrote the ambiguous uncertainties and made
new blue post it’s for the same.



Validating As soon as we completed validating uncertainties, we
and naming started making clusters. Based on 1st iteration
of clusters experience, we decided that each member of the
team would work on separate clusters and will present
on the connections to the group. Each member
contributed in making cluster and validating them.
making
Every member presented his cluster and storyline to the
team and, based on team decision, cluster was
finalized.
Wednesd Are we right We met up at 8:45 to built Impact and Predictability
ay, 7th in naming the Matrix. In the mean time we realized to call Dr. Burt for
October clusters? his comments on cluster names as this is critical for next
2009 stage. The team asked Dr. Burt for his views on the new
clusters and their names. Dr. Burt reviewed the clusters
and asked the team what are the driving forces in each
the
clusters. He asked the team to rework on names and
get it rechecked by him in the afternoon.

Based on Dr. Burt’s feedback, the team decided to
rework on the cluster names. There was long discussion
among the team members about the name for each
team
and every cluster.
Impact and Post naming of the clusters, we started making the
Predictability impact and predictability matrix
Matrix- The team used voting method to reach on the
Ranking the consensus for the rankings of each of the clusters
clusters
After completing impact and predictability matrix, we
decided to call Dr. Burt for his feedback on final cluster
names & how we had used our impact and
Predictability Matrix.

Dr. Burt encouraged us to use all our blue post-its when
its
we had framed our scenarios to ensure a rich storyline.
Remarkable Concurrent with the impact and predictability matrix
Person work, James McKenna contacted the Remarkable
person.

He interviewed Professor Sally Humphries discussing
where we had reached in our research and our view of
Honduran society with regard to the Millennium
Development Goal’s, consolidated her feedback and
discussed with the team.



Scenario For the Scenario Matrix we considered following
Matrix clusters:

Influence of US Policy on International trade of
Honduras
Role of judiciary in dealing with corruption and gang
culture

Reviewing both the clusters, each member of the team
contributed at least 2 future outcomes for each
scenario to start as a base for fr
framing the scenarios
scenarios.

While making Scenario Matrix, Dr. Burt came to see our
progress. He told us that the Scenario Matrix we built
did not frame the information we have adequately. He
told us to include the driving forces which lead to
change in framing our scenario matrix.

After this feedback we reviewed and changed our
framing statements to ensure they covered the driving
forces we had identified.
Naming the The team came together and based on consensus
Scenario naming was decided for all four scenarios
Matrix
The name of four scenarios are as follows:
⇒ Brown Field Development
⇒ Level Playing Field
⇒ Recipe for Revolution
⇒ Green Shoot in Shades
Making The next task was to develop storyline for 4 scenarios. In
Storylines order to do so team picked the outcomes resembling
the statements of the scenario and included them in
scenario. The team divided itself in making 4 storylines
keeping the MDG goals of UNDP as a fixed point of
reference.

The team focused on making connections in the
storyline and included Virtuous and vicious circles at the
same time.
Stakeholder The team appointed Chandra Shekhar and Sanil Narayanan
Analysis Subash to carry out Stakeholder Analysis. Post his Viswanathan,
analysis Narayanan, Viswanathan reviewed and Chandra
included few missing links in the s
same – which the team Shekhar and
subsequently ratified
ratified. Sanil Subash



Impact of The team created a matrix to give an overview to all
Scenario’s on four scenarios and their impact in MDG goals. The
MDG Goals matrix included 3 coding which are as follows:
of UNDP
Red- MDG goal not achieved
Yellow-
Yellow Probably Achieved
Green-
Green Achieved MDG goal

In this matrix we showcased current scenario of the
country and impact of MDG goals on of the country
and impact of all scenarios on MD goals.
MDG

Thanks to the Venezuelan team for their idea.
(All Rights Reserved)
Presentation The Soft copy of every process was recorded by Narayanan
Narayanan Viswanathan (NV). After discussing the Viswanathan
impact of each scenario on MDG goals, NV started with
final presentation.

Audio-Visual The team contributed their views on building the Sanil &
representatio presentation and formatting of the same. Vaibhav
n of Sanil Subhash Chandra Bose and Vaibhav Mehta were
Honduras involved in making Audio visual for the current scenario
Audio-visual
current of Honduras. The teams gave their feedback on the
scenario audio-visual
audio visual and were included in final presentation.

Wednesd Final The team collated final Audio Video and final
Audio-Video All
ay, Presentation presentation and received feedback from all team
7th members
October
2009
Thursday, The team appointed Narayanan Viswanathan and Narayanan,
8th James McKenna to present on Thursday 8th Oct’09. Viswanathan &
October James
2009 McKenna



Day/ Date EIBE Subject - What What actions do we take to address? Action by?
do we not know?
Points of General Reflection After the iteration-1 we decide to have an open
1
critical feedback session among the members of the group.
reflection on Lesson from This feedback is for each member by other members
EIBE Process Iteration-1: from the group. This shown a new picture of our self.
Because there was big difference of what we think
of our self and how we are perceived in the group.
Each of us noted down our feedback and kept in
mind to change our self for second iteration.
The beautiful thing was each of us has accepted the
feedback without giving any explanation o “if’s or
of
but’s”. We accepted it as a gift and promised to
.
bring necessary changes so that we can really value
add in second iteration.
Lessons from Group management of learning styles was a key
Iteration-2: factor.
Having an open feedback session after iteration 1
helped us to come together as a group
All members of group being assertive are necessary
for a healthy discussion.
It’s more important to judge when to step back than
to step ahead.
Taking timely breaks for refreshing the thought
process is important for new idea generation as well
as for letting off some steam.
Listening to others is the key for introspection.
Self management is more important than time
management.
No idea is good or bad
It’s important at times to challenge your assumptions
from your research.

It is better to include a person who has better
experience may be like 10 or more years the way
they approach the problem is entirely different.

If the team contain more than 2 activist try to be a
reflector or pragmatist even if you are activist.
u
Have we utilized Frankly speaking No. From the day 1 onwards we
with our time had timetable for each & every process that we had
effectively? to do. But unfortunately we were not able to meet
e
the deadlines time-and-again. Consequently, we
.
extended our working time – of working from 9 a.m.
till late at night. We have 2 people who had to leave
by 10 p.m. since they are staying far away from
Glasgow. We used technology to overcome this issue
by getting in touch with each other and enable
virtual group working by using Skype.



2. Honduras – An Overview
verview
Data Source(s)
http://www.unsiap.or.jp
http://www.ifad.org
http://www.wri.org
http://www.hondurastips.honduras.com

History
Honduras was originally inhabited by indigenous tribes, the most powerful of which were the
Mayans. The western-central part of Honduras was inhabited by the Lencas. These autonomous
central
groups had their conflicts but maintained their commercial relationships with each other and with
other populations as distant as Panama and Mexico. On July 30, 1502, Christopher Columbus first
saw Honduran soil and he claimed the territory in the name of his sovereigns, Ferdinand of Aragon
and Isabella of Castile. He named the area "Honduras" (meaning "depths") for the deep water off
the coast. Honduras, which was colonized by Spain, gained independence in 1821. The country was
then briefly annexed to the Mexican Empire. In 1823, Honduras joined the newly formed United
n
Provinces of Central America federation, which collapsed in 1838. The country has been in and out
of Democratic and Military rule in succession, and not necessarily iin any particular order.
n

Political Scenario
Organized labor represents approximately 8% of the work force and its economic and political
influence continues to decline. Honduras held its seventh consecutive democratic general elections
in 2005 to elect a new president, unicameral Congress, and mayors. For the first time, as a result of
ew
the newly reformed Electoral Law, voters were able to vote for individual members of Congress, with
photos of each candidate on the ballot, rather than party lists.

For the electoral period 2006-2010, 31 women were elected to Congress. Additionally, 27 of these 31
2010,
congresswomen chose women as their alternates. In November 2008, successful primaries were held
to select the candidates from the Liberal and National parties who will compete for the presidency
in November 2009.

The two major parties are the slightly left
left-of-centre Liberal Party and the slightly
centre slightly-right-of-center
National Party. The three much smaller registered parties the Christian Democratic Party, the
parties--the
Innovation and National Unity Party, and the Democratic Unification Party hold a few seats each in
n Party--hold
the Congress, but have never come close to winning the presidency.

Government
⇒ Type: Democratic constitutional republic Independence: September 15, 1821
ocratic
⇒ Head of State: President, directly elected to 4
resident, 4-year term
⇒ Political parties: Partido Nacional Partido Liberal, Innovation and National Unity Party,
Nacional, ,
Christian Democratic Party, and the Democratic Unification Party.

The following is the list of Head of the State of Honduras from 1933 to date.
⇒ Chairman of the Military Junta PN: National Party PLH: Honduran Liberal Party
⇒ Tiburcio Carías Andino 1933
1933-1949 (+1969) PN
⇒ Juan Manuel Gálvez Durón 1949
1949-1954 (+1955) PN
⇒ Juan Lozano Díaz 1954-1956 (+1957) PN
1956
⇒ Roque Jacinto Rodríguez Herrera 1956
ríguez 1956-1957 C.MJ, military (1)
⇒ Ramón Villeda Morales 1957
1957-1963 (+1971) PLH
⇒ Oswaldo López Arellano 1963
1963-1965 C.MJ, military



1965-1971 PN
⇒ Ramón Ernesto Cruz Uclés 1971
1971-1972 (+1985) PN
1972-1975 military
⇒ Juan Alberto Melgar Castro 1975
1975-1978 (+1987) military
⇒ Policarpo Paz García 1978
1978-1980 C.MJ, military (2)
⇒ Policarpo Paz García 1980
1980-1982 civilian (caretaker)
⇒ Roberto Suazo Córdova 1982
1982-1986 PLH
⇒ José Azcona Hoyo 1986-1990 PLH
1990
⇒ Rafael Leonardo Callejas Romero 1990
1990-1994 PN
⇒ Carlos Roberto Reina Idiáquez 1994
1994-1998 PLH
⇒ Carlos Roberto Flores Facussé 1998
1998-2002 PLH
⇒ Ricardo Maduro Joest 2002
2002-2006 PN
⇒ José Manuel Zelaya Rosales of the PL 2006-2009
o Has been ousted in a coup supported by Military

1956-1957 Military Junta members: Roberto Gálvez, Roque Jacinto Rodríguez Herrera, Héctor Carraccioli
1957
1978-1980 Military Junta members: Policarpo Paz García, Amílcar Zelaya Rodríguez, Domingo Álvarez Cruz
1980

Economy
Honduras, with a per capita gross national income of $1,635, is one of the poorest countries in the
Western Hemisphere. Historically dependent on exports of agricultural goods, the Honduran
economy has diversified in recent decades and now has a strong export export-processing (maquila)
industry, primarily focused on assembling textile and apparel goods for re re-export to the United
States, as well as automobile wiring harnesses and similar products. These industries employ about
130,000 Hondurans, out of an economically active population of 2.8 million. Despite the recent
population
economic diversification, there continues to be a large subsistence farmer population with few
economic opportunities. Honduras also has extensive forest, marine, and mineral resources,
although widespread slash-and-burn agricultural methods and illegal logging continue to destroy
burn
Honduran forests.

Remittances from Hondurans living abroad, record for more than one-fifth of GDP
fifth GDP--but the annual
rate of growth of remittances has been slowing down consistently from 2006 and is expected to turn
negative in 2009. Meanwhile, Honduras's fuel import bill rose sharply with the surge in world oil prices
(Honduras produces no petroleum), and foreign reserves of the Central Bank fell by nearly $98
million--about 4%. Reserves continued to decline during 2008 and by November equalled just over
about
three months worth of imports.

Since 2005, Honduras has received nearly $4 billion in debt relief from bilateral and multilateral
donors. The Government of Honduras has committed to apply these funds to poverty alleviation, as
rnment
laid out in the existing Poverty Reduction Strategy. However, much of the ensuing rise in government
spending has gone to public sector salaries and fuel subsidies. Fuel subsidies were phased out and
subsidies
electricity subsidies reduced and targeted more tightly to the poor in 2008. But salaries, especially for
teachers, continue to claim an increasing share of public spending.

Economy (2007 estimate)
⇒ GDP: $12.3 billion
o Manufacturing (19.7% of GDP)
o Services (54.2% of GDP)
o Agriculture (13.8% of GDP)



⇒ Growth rate: 6.3%
⇒ Per capita GDP: $1,635 (official exchange rate) $3,130 (PPP, IMF)
⇒ Trade – Exports: $5.59 billion
o Major market--U.S. (70%)
U.S.
⇒ Trade Imports: $8.56 billion
o Major source--U.S. (52%)
U.S.

Geography & Topography
⇒ Area: 112,090 sq. km. (43,278 sq. mi.); slightly larger than Virginia.
⇒ Cities: Capital--Tegucigalpa (
Tegucigalpa (population 1,150,000); San Pedro Sula (population 900,000)
an
⇒ Climate: Tropical to subtropical, depending on elevation
ropical,
⇒ Population: 2006 est.: 7.3 million Growth rate (2006 est.): 2.16%.
⇒ Ethnic groups: 90% Mestizo (mixed Indian and European)
estizo
⇒ Religions: Roman Catholic, Protestant minority – Language: Spanish
n
⇒ Education: Attendance-88% overall, 31% at junior high level. Literacy--76.2%
88% 76.2%
⇒ Health: Infant mortality rate
rate--29.64/ 1,000.
⇒ Life expectancy: 66.2 years
⇒ Work force:
o Services - 42.2%
o Natural resources/agriculture - 35.9%
atural
o Manufacturing - 16.3%
o Construction/ Housing - 5.6%
ousing

Population living with under $1 a day (%) 23.8
Population living with under $2 a day (%) 44.4
Undernourished people (% or population) 21.0
Children under 5, underweight for their age (%) 25.0
Children under 5, under height for their age (%) 39.0
Probability of not surviving to age 40 (% of cohort) 13.8
Population without sustainable access to an improved water source (%) 12.0

Foreign Relations
Honduras is a member of the United Nations, the World Trade Organization (WTO), the Organization
of American States (OAS), the Central American Parliament (PARLACEN), the Central American
Integration System (SICA), the Conference of Central American Armed Forces (CFAC), and the
Central American Security Commission (CASC). Honduras is also a signatory to the Rio Pact and a
member of the Central American Defence Council (CONDECA).

Honduras is a strong proponent of Central American cooperation and integratio and continues to
integration,
work towards the implementation of a regional customs union and Central American passport,
which would ease border controls and tariffs among Honduras, Guatemala, Nicaragua and El
Salvador.



3. Identification of Uncertainties (Sheet 2)

Areas of investigation & the corresponding Uncertainties
Cultural
⇒ Access of hospitals in rural areas
areas.
⇒ Change in Garifuna culture by tourism
tourism.
⇒ Effects of Cultural value system on Education
Education.
⇒ How does the Catholic Church change the Human Rights record of Honduras?
⇒ Impact of awareness of condoms on male prostitutes
prostitutes.
⇒ Impact of awareness on conservation of treestrees.
⇒ Impact of cultural attitudes on women’s employment and empowerment
empowerment.
⇒ Impact of free health check up’s of pregnant woman on infant mortality rate
rate.
⇒ Impact of legalized prostitution on HIV
HIV.
⇒ Influence of women for decision making regarding the use of condoms
condoms.
⇒ Is working environment equal for men and women in private sector
sector.
⇒ Role of catholic churches in politics
politics.
⇒ Role of rural society towards modern maternity centre
ural centre.
⇒ Women employability in private sector
sector.

Ecological
⇒ Ability of Honduras to develop eco
eco-friendly tourism.
⇒ Efficiency of the Honduran government in chalking out an ecological policy on mining
mining.
⇒ Impact of forest conservative law on new crop sustainability
sustainability.
⇒ Impact of growing rate of urbanization on the eco system and natural resources
eco-system resources.
⇒ Impact of new ecological act on Shrimp farming
farming.
⇒ Role of wheat and rice farming on malnutrition of children in rural area.
area.

Economic
⇒ Competition of Maquila products with Asian products in USA USA.
⇒ Creation of special economic zones and providing short term Tax rebates
short-term rebates.
⇒ Does corruption lead to decline in GDPGDP?
⇒ Does microfinance contribute to the economy?
⇒ High interest rate on loans, affecting child education.
⇒ Impact of tourism on child education
education.
⇒ Increase in tourism affecting real estate price
price.
⇒ Role of microfinance on entrepreneurs in urban population
population.
⇒ Strategic alliance with gold companies to dig gold in Honduras
Honduras.
⇒ What will Honduras do if oil is found in territorial waters
waters.
⇒ Will the fishing Industry on the East Coast of Honduras continue to be a net exporter?

Environmental
⇒ Effectiveness in the flood management between Honduras & Nicaragua
Nicaragua.
⇒ Government’s stance on environmental conservation.
⇒ If Hydro electric dams are not built, how will rural community’s energy needs be met?
⇒ What effects would a renewed mining industry have on the environment?
⇒ Will focus on preventative health campaigns have an impact on Changes disease?



Ethics
⇒ Does increase in tourism leads to increase in prostitution
prostitution.
⇒ If judicial system not influenced by executive body what impact would there be on
corruption.
⇒ Impact of Censorship on the Honduran TV and News papers.
⇒ Impact of impunity before the legal system for the social elites on the human rights index
index.
⇒ What will the Catholic Church do to affect the lives of under nourished children?

Geo-Politics
⇒ Does World Bank project for energy alleviate energy crisis in Honduras?
⇒ Feasibility of strategic alliance with foreign universities to create skilled manpower
⇒ Impact of development of trade relations with countries outside US and Latin America
⇒ Impact on Honduran government with removal of US army from Solvano airbase
⇒ Nature and impact of the decrease in military forces
⇒ Political impact of Honduras joining ALBA
⇒ Political instability can lead to loss of investment by US companies
⇒ The rigid rule by US for Illegal immigrants from Honduras
⇒ What effect will Central American Free Trade talks have on Honduras?
⇒ What will be the consequences on oil supply due to Honduras’s political stance?
⇒ What will be the impact of the oil oil-deal with Venezuela
⇒ What will be the USA policy on convicted Hondurans in the USA illegally?
⇒ What will Honduras Governments foreign policy be towards its nearest neighbours?
be
⇒ What would be the effect of the re re-formation of the “Coffee Cartel”?
⇒ Will the UN intervene in the current political unrest?

Law
⇒ Does government labelling of trees reduce illegal timber production?
⇒ Does minimum wages of children curb child labour?
⇒ Effectiveness of the enforcement of judicial systems and the rule of law
law.
⇒ Implementation of anti-gang law on freedom of youth
gang youth.
⇒ Is judiciary influenced by politics?
⇒ Will the Judiciary continue to be linked t the Political systems?
to

Macro-Economical
⇒ Exploration of minerals to increase GDP
GDP.
⇒ Feasibility of having separate quota for women in public sector jobs who complete primary
education.
⇒ How could the EU trade Negotiations affect Honduras agricultural policy?
⇒ Impact of change in USA free trade policy on Honduras export
export.
⇒ Impact of EU trade agreement on Honduras export
export.
⇒ Impact of global credit crunch on the Tourism industry
industry.
⇒ Impact of implementation and adaptation of CAFTA DR on foreign direct investments
CAFTA-DR investments.
⇒ Impact of industrialist buying property on beaches
beaches.
⇒ Impact of promotion of inland railways for transportation of goods and people, by improving
the current infrastructure.
⇒ Impact of strategic alliances and partnerships between dependent industries on dom
domestic
market scenario.
⇒ Impact of transmission of Maquila sector to manufacturing sector on economy
economy.
⇒ Impact on unskilled labours due to minimum wage standard
standard.



Macro-Economic
⇒ Is increase in child mortality an impact of de centralized hospital system?
de-centralized
⇒ Opening up Puerto Corte’s port for handling merchandize beyond El Salvador and
Nicaragua.
⇒ PL regaining power in General elections
elections.
⇒ Role of gangs in slowdown of economy
economy.
⇒ What effects will textile import policy of the USA have on the Honduran economy?
⇒ What will be the impact of credit crunch in US on Honduran economy?
ill credit-crunch
⇒ What will happen to Power supplies if State companies are sold to the private sector?
⇒ Will the Maquila business model develop to cope with recession in the USA?

Political
⇒ Ability of the government to procure more drugs for HIV through negotiation with
pharmaceutical companies
companies.
⇒ Ability of the Honduran government to improve the road infrastructure
infrastructure.
⇒ Ability to generate adequate professionals dedicated to manage HIV HIV.
⇒ Effect of the coup on the democratic set set-up of the country.
⇒ How effective is water sanitation project in rural areas?
⇒ If unemployment rates stay at historical levels, what effects will this have on primary
education?
⇒ Impact of labour unions in providing quality education
education.
⇒ Partido Nacional party coming to power, in the next general election
ido election.
⇒ Prioritizing the allocation of funds towards infrastructural development
development.
⇒ Utilization of health care budget in research and technology of new medicines
medicines.
⇒ Impact of introduction of monitoring of HIV status of Legal sex workers on HIV prevention
⇒ Impact of trade union on domestic politics
politics.
⇒ Role of small parties in general election in November 9 9.
⇒ Will the government provide free primary health care in the rural areas?
health-care

Social
⇒ Ability of existing education system in producing skilled labour.
⇒ Ability of the local News paper and TV to impact Political Change
Change.
⇒ Ability of the UN AIDS to collaborate with NGOs working on HIV prevention.
⇒ Change in Attitude of religious groups to providing sex education in schools
providing schools.
⇒ Feasibility of giving free mosquito net by government to prevent malaria
malaria.
⇒ How effective is role of NGO’s in spreading the message “Feed a child in Honduras”?
⇒ Impact of cooperation between regional municipalities on Health resources / learning
resources learning.
⇒ Impact of cultural diversity on acceptance health care delivery
delivery.
⇒ Impact of literacy on women empowerment
empowerment.
⇒ Impact of NGO in creating awareness regarding HIV prevention
prevention.
⇒ Impact of training Nursing Auxiliaries on infant mortality
mortality.
⇒ Role of NGO’s in improving standard of living in rural areas
O’s areas.
⇒ Stance of the Poor towards government providing free education.
⇒ What will happen to remittance incomes?
⇒ Will Changes in agricultural policy be influenced by companies like Wal Wal-Mart?
⇒ Will Gangs (MARAS) impact national Security?
⇒ Will population demographics continue to move to an urban setting?
⇒ Will the level of Maternal Care stay at current levels?
⇒ Women headed business sustain
sustaining family!?



Technological
⇒ Ability of government to curb loss of energy in transmission and distribution
distribution.
⇒ Ability of Honduras to develop BioBio-fuel.
⇒ Adaptation of latest techniques and technologies for agricultural development across the
country.
⇒ Change in agricultural crop type – diversifying/ growing new crops.
⇒ Exploration of alternative sources of energy
energy.
⇒ Possibility of exploring highly precious metal like zinc, silver in Honduras
Honduras.
⇒ Internet connection facility impact on child education in rural area area.
⇒ Role of female condom on HIV/AIDS spread spread.



4. Plausible Alternative Outcomes (Sheet 3)

Uncertainties Plausible Outcome A Plausible Outcome B
Effect of the coup on the Lack of public faith on There will be an increased
democratic set-up of the democratically elected national and international focus
country. government decrease their on free and fairness of the next
confidence on democracy as a general election in the country
whole
Effectiveness of the Ineffective enforcement may Unchecked authority for law
enforcement of judicial result in devolution of law & order enforcement may result in
systems and the rule of law. situation in the country human rights violation committed
by police and other inland
security agencies
Adaptation of latest Improved agricultural Excessive usage may result in
techniques and productivity resulting in reduction infertile land or contamination of
technologies for agricultural in food scarcity and promotion of agricultural produce
development across the rural development
country.
Prioritizing the allocation of Allocation of funds towards Higher % of fund allocation on
funds towards infrastructural domestic infrastructure infrastructure development
development. development promotes trade, means less fund available for
resulting in economic providing education and p public
development health
Creation of special Promotes entrepreneurship and Adversely impacts the inflow of
economic zones and reduces brain drain revenue in the form of direct
providing short-term Tax taxes for a short term
rebates.
Government’s stance on Effective environment policy will Stringent environmental policies
environmental positively impact growth and may stunt the growth of tourism
conservation. sustenance of economic and other similar sectors or will
development increase their operational cost
costs
Change in agricultural crop Growing staple crops (such as Farmers currently growing cash
type – diversifying/ growing Rice/ Wheat), will result in self
self- crops such as Coffee, will need
new crops sufficiency and reduce imports help and training to help th
them
diversify in staple crops
Role of NGO’s in improving Disproportionate development Effective utilization of funds for
standard of living in rural due to limitation of scale and development of rural areas
areas. resources
Impact of strategic Fosters symbiotic growth and May result in a paradigm shift
alliances and partnerships development of the industries from Consumerism to
between dependent and promotes healthy Producerism
industries on domestic competition between them
market scenario.
Impact of implementation Eliminates the need of foreign Promotes fairness and
and adaptation of CAFTA- firms to act through local agents transparency in government
DR on foreign direct to participate in public tenders procurement procedures
ent
investments. resulting in increased FDI resulting in reduced corruption
Impact of global credit There may be a lower inflow of An opportunity to consolidate the
crunch on the Tourism tourists adversely impacting the tourism industry and formulating
industry. tourism industry policies regulating eco
cies eco-tourism



Impact of trade union on Government policies favoured Good representation of
domestic politics. and biased towards specific businesses and industries in
lobbyists only government will facilitate
industrial reforms
What will be the impact of Lower inflow of aids and Strained relationship with US
the oil-deal with development funds from US resulting in impact on Maquila
Venezuela?
Nature and impact of the Decrease in military/ armed Decrease in armed forces result
decrease in military forces. forces can pose a threat to in reduced spending on military,
national security which can then be used for
development projects
What will be the impact of Slow down in US will adversely Weakness of US economy will
credit-crunch in US on impact both demand for exports impede investment slowing down
Honduran economy? and flows of remittance which economic growth
account for 1/5 of Honduran
GDP
Impact of promotion of Reduced freight charges resulting Possibility of incurring more loss for
inland railways for in increased profit margin for the government due to
transportation of goods and business entities - Promotes trade increased pospossibilities of theft of
people, by improving the railway tracks
current infrastructure.
Opening up Puerto Corte’s Improvement in political & Increased revenue and ability to
port for handling economic relationship with reach capacity utilization of the
merchandize beyond El neighbouring countries Puerto Corte port
Salvador and Nicaragua.
Partido Nacional party PN leaders will focus on getting PN government will adopt harder
coming to power, in the tough on crime and in creating stance on wages and spending
next general election. hospitable climate for business cuts in response to pressure from
will benefit Honduras in the long IMF, rather than revenue
run enhancement policies to reduce
fiscal deficit
Exploration of alternative Reduces dependencies on fossil Higher cost of initial capital
sources of energy. fuel and import of crude oil investment resulting in less funds
available to address other
pressing needs
Impact of growing rate of Encroachment of agricultural Increase in pollution resulting in
urbanization on the eco- lands for townships resulting in deterioration of health
system and natural food shortage in the long run
resources.
Impact of impunity before Increase in social unrest, resulting Oppression of economically and
the legal system for the in higher crime rate and human politically weaker communities in
social elites on the human rights violation the society resulting in social
rights index. imbalance and Plutocracy
Will the government provide Higher cost of initial investment of Reduces per capital expenditure
free primary health-care in infrastructure with no immediate and mortality rates in the
the rural areas? returns medium-long terms
long
Impact of cultural attitudes Women being isolated and Social imbalance created due to
on women’s employment increase in likelihood for them lower percentage of women
and empowerment. becoming easy targets for sexual employed in high
high-skilled jobs
harassment at work



Impact of change in USA Relationship of Honduras Honduras focuses on other
free trade policy on increases with Venezuela. countries for export.
Honduras export.
Competition of Maquila Change in Maquila products to Maquila products focused in
products with Asian establish identity in USA market. other markets.
products in USA.
Implementation of anti Youth frustration leads to rejoin in Strict implementation of law
gang law on freedom of gang. curbs the gangs.
youth.
Impact on Honduran High funding by USA to Honduran Longer US--Honduran relation to
government with removal government for maintenance of sustain growth.
of US army from Solvano army.
airbase.
Role of microfinance on Increase in employment in both Increase in investment for
entrepreneurs in urban urban and rural population. business infrastructure.
population.
Role of rural society towards Proximity of Maternity centre will Less response to maternity centre
modern maternity centre. help women health. by women due to conservative
nature of women.
Role of small parties in Influence gangs to increase their Gangs will combine with PN to
general election in vote banks in election. overpower PL in general election.
November.
High interest rate on loans, Parents send child to work Increase in child labour.
affecting child education. instead of school to repay the
loan.
Impact of EU trade More revenues coming from EU More employment opportunities
agreement on Honduras market as exports. helping in eradicating poverty.
export.
Role of female condom on Decrease in HIV/AIDS numbers in Increase in HIV/AIDS number in
HIV/AIDS spread. Lesbian and heterosexual male to male sex partners.
partners.
Impact on unskilled labours Secure bread basket for the local Improvement in financial
due to minimum wage labours every day. conditions of the unskilled
standard. workers.
Role of wheat and rice Less dependency on government Less impact of diseases as
farming on malnutrition of aid leading to continuous food children are healthy with
children in rural area. supply to children. sufficient food supply.
Impact of literacy on Higher role in family affairs Better self-
-awareness leading to
women empowerment. leading to gender equality. better maternal health.
If judicial System not Though Judicial system Judicial System takes action
Influenced by executive separated from the executive against corruption severe
body what impact would body Corruption not affected. decrease in corruption seen
there be on corruption.
Impact of labour unions in Labour union work towards better Labour union keeps on calling
providing quality education. working condition for teacher strikes for teachers school
which results in better quality of intermittently closed for long
education periods of time.
iods
Ability of existing education Existing education system Though 95% literacy achieved
system in producing skilled produced high quantity of the degree has no value in the
labour. professionals / Skilled labour. job market.



Stance of the Poor towards The poverty prevailing in The poor are not concerned
Government Providing free Honduras sees free primary about education they see it as a
Education. education as the first step in factor that would decrease
Alleviating Poverty house hold income
Effects of Cultural value Overall high level of acceptability Although high level of
system on Education. of need for education acceptability of need for
education rejection of Organized
schooling.
Ability of the local News Media makes govt more Political control on media makes
paper and TV to impact accountable for their actions them tools for party
Political Change. propaganda.8
Ability of Honduras to Honduran Govt was able to Honduras spends 20 M US$ on
develop Bio Fuel. develop bio fuel from Sugarcane research however no new bio
and African Palm to meet the fuel developed
33% requirement budgeted by
them
Impact of Censorship on The Govt censor board weak Government censors any Anti
the Honduran TV and News media speaks its mind on political government material on the local
papers. action TV and News.
Efficiency of the Honduran The Government of Honduras in Eco friendly mining laws (
Govt in chalking out an deadlock over coup Eco-friendly formulated) though delayed
ecological policy on mining act is shelved
mining.
Will Gangs (MARAS) impact Gangs grow in size high impact Cultural rejection of MARAS
national Security? on national security decreasing impact on MARAS
Impact of new ecological Decreased production and The new law does not impact
act on Shrimp farming. export of shrimp shrimp farming practices
practices.
Ability of Honduras to The Honduran Govt in support Tourism Industry booms however
develop eco friendly with IADP develops a plan fo
for the ecological laws are not
tourism. eco-friendly tourism
eco adhered to.
Ability of the Honduran Honduras develops and repairs The road infrastructure remains
Govt to improve the road existing road structure decrease the way it is, status quo on oil
infrastructure. in transit times and improved consumption from transport.
efficiency on oil consumption
Ability of Government to Energy losses continue as poor Private sector kicks in on energy
curb loss of energy in infrastructure. well managed plants with
transmission and distribution. minimal losses of energy in
transmission.
Change in Attitude of Though religious leaders against Religious Institution remains
religious groups to providing introduction of sex education conservative towards introducing
sex education in schools. Government Introduces it in sex education in primary school.
Primary School
Impact of NGO in creating NGOs work in HIV prevention in a NGOs actively piece meal and
awareness regarding HIV major way reaching out to the there is no follow
follow-up
prevention. highly Susceptible population
Ability of the UN AIDS to UN AIDS work in collaboration NGOS feel threatened by UNAIDS
collaborate with the NGOs with all NGOs working on a work in terms of loosing
working on HIV prevention. systematic national plan to independence.
control HIV.



Impact of introduction of Legal sex work not monitored Recognition and monitoring of
monitoring of HIV status of resulting in no change on health this group leads to tab on HIV
Legal sex workers on HIV status of Sex Workers. status amongst sex workers and
prevention. improved awareness levels.
Impact of training Nursing Trained Auxiliary staff goes back Trained Auxiliary staff though
Auxiliaries on infant to the community advocating assist in deliveries but have no
mortality. and assisting in studded impact on changing mindset
deliveries. towards institutionalized deliveries
Impact of cooperation Cooperation between Though there is a sharing of
between regional municipalities learning from each managerial processes no sharing
municipalities on Health other shared resource base of resources as they are limit
limited.
resources / learning. specially effects smaller
municipalities
Impact of cultural diversity Culturally diverse groups not Culturally diverse groups more
on acceptance health care receptive of modern day acceptable of taking assistance
delivery. medicine in Health from trained members
of their own community
Ability of the Government Government manages to Failure / Delay in payment lead
to procure more drugs for continue and further subsidize to spoilt relationship with
HIV through negotiation procurement of drugs from pharmacy companies and in
with pharmaceutical pharmaceutical companies procurement of new drugs.
companies.
Ability to generate The municipal Government calls Govt looks at buil
building training
adequate professionals on local resources training others facilities for provision of skilled
dedicated to control HIV. within the community manpower to deal with HIV care
Does increase in tourism More sexual transmitted disease Sex tourism reason for more
leads to increase in among people tourist to coming in
prostitution.
Increase in tourism affecting Real estate price goes up More infrastructure development
real estate price.
Does corruption leads to Corruption may sometimes leads Country GDP will decline
decline in GDP. to consumerism
Effectiveness in the flood Information generated was rarely Dispute between Nicaragua &
management between translated into early flood Honduras leads to falsification of
Honduras & Nicaragua. warning data in the case of disaster
Feasibility of giving free Because of centralized health Since majority of population are
mosquito net by care system (Hospitals) in urban areas distribution
government to prevent distributing mosquito net though feasibility is high which can
malaria. hospitals in not a good idea prevent malaria spreading
Does microfinance More women in business More business start up thereby
contribute to the economy. better GDP
Does minimum wages of Primary education rate increase Rise of gangsters among young
children curb child labour. age people decrease
Strategic alliance with gold Increase in gold export add more Lack of skilled labour in Honduras
companies to dig gold in value to the economy may be problem to maintain
Honduras. mining plant
Is judiciary influenced by Legal system fails increase in Increase in number of crimes
politics. corruption



Feasibility of strategic Foreign university education Due to poverty people might not
alliance with foreign might be expensive be interested in higher education
universities to create skilled
manpower.
Is increase in child mortality Lack of doctors is a problem More life span among children
an impact of de-centralized
hospital system?
Feasibility of having Government of Honduras unable Women empowerment their by
separate quota for women to give salaries to employees family stability
in public sector jobs who
complete primary
education.
Women headed business Better gender equality Improved women education
sustains family.
Does world bank project for Energy exploitation may happen Rural areas getting electrified
energy alleviate energy
crisis in Honduras.
How effective is water Decrease in death rate due to Better health for people in rural
sanitation project in Rural impure water areas
areas?
How much possible is Youth contributing more to the Increase in primary education
inculcating agriculture economy resulting in less crime and poverty
education in primary
education?
How effective is role of Educational & social uplift NGO’s are not able to convey
NGO’s in spreading the increase among children message to the world “Feed a
message “Feed a child in decrease in poverty child in Honduras”
Honduras”?
Does government labelling Tagging or labelling of all trees De-forestation can be reduced
forestation
of trees reduce illegal are not feasible which iin-turn up to an extent
timber production? illegal cutting of trees
Possibility of exploiting highly Maintenance of mining plant will Lead & zinc export will add better
precious metal like zinc, be harder because lack of skilled value to country
silver in Honduras. man power
The rigid rule by US for Illegal Illegal immigrants of Honduras Increase in unemployment due
immigrants from Honduras. sent back to their countries to more eligible people for one
job
Impact of awareness of Usage of condoms increases in Population control is done with
condoms on male males sex with male workers high usage of condoms
prostitutes. leading to decrease in HIV
Influence of women for Use of condoms increases due to Reduction in chances of HIV due
decision making regarding more influence of woman in to increase in use of condoms
the use of condoms. purchasing process
Impact of free health check Better health of children when Backward society opposing
up’s of pregnant woman on born health check up due to social
h
infant mortality rate. norms
PL regaining power in Amendments in judiciary laws Quality of education enhanced
General elections. by involving professional teachers
from abroad



Is working environment More employment opportunities Disparity in income for women in
equal for men and women for women in private sector private sector despite same
in private sector. qualification
Utilization of health care Special budget assigned for More advance techniques/
budget in research and research in health care vaccination been used to cure
technology of new current diseases
medicines.
Impact of industrialist People with less income selling off Growth of hospitality industry in
buying property on their lands with less value of their Honduras near beaches
beaches. lands
Exploration of minerals to Export of minerals leading to Burden on few minerals will be
increase GDP. increase in GDP reduced as there will be market
for more minerals
Impact of transmission of Manufacturing of products will Foreign trade will increase due to
Maquila sector to less production of goods which to be
manufacturing sector on sold in different countries
economy.
Impact of development of Dominance of US will be reduced US will take action against
trade relations with Honduras because of trade
countries outside US and relation with their countries
Latin America.
Role of gangs in slowdown Involvement of gangs in robbery Gangs involvement in politics
of economy. and murder leading to de growth leading making laws in favour of
of econ
economy them
Impact of awareness on Deforestation reduces with Conservation of trees leading to
conservation of trees. increase in awareness healthier environment for future
Women employability in Low wages given to women Woman faces sexual harassment
private sector. compared to men of same in office
calibre
Access of hospitals in rural Limited access of hospitals in rural Accessibility of hospitals to rich
areas. areas people
Impact of legalized Growth of tourism leading to high People moving out of poverty
prostitution on HIV. GDP
Political instability can lead US companies removing their Increase in unemployment due
to loss of investment by US business from Honduras to US companies removing their
companies business
Political impact of Honduras Strong alliance among members Strong alliance leading to
joining ALBA. leads to more trade reduction in US decision making
in Latin America
Role of catholic churches in Influence of catholic churches
fluence Influence of catholic church
politics. increases as its followers increases leads to amendment to
constituency laws
What will be the Venezuela supply of oil and Venezuela continues to supply oil
consequences on oil supply political links are strengthened but does not require A.L.B.A.
due to Honduras’s political within A.L.B.A. membership as a political pre
pre-
stance? requisite.



How could the EU trade E.U. Trade negotiations result in E.U. trade negotiations result in
Negotiations affect new markets for all agricultural new markets for Agricultural
Honduras agricultural output and nothing more. output & foreign direct
policy? investment in sustainable
manufacturing.
What will be the USA policy USA Continues with repatriation USA agrees to keep Honduran
on convicted Hondurans in of Honduran convicts. convicts in American penal
the USA illegally? system until end of sentence.
If Hydro electric dams are Rural communities continue to Rural communities are helped by
not built, how will rural rely on Kerosene for electricity NGO's to utilize small scale local
community’s energy needs generation. hydro-electrical systems.
electrical
be met?
What Will happen to Power The selloff of Public Power The selloff of Public Power
supplies if State companies Generation companies creates a Generation companies does not
are sold to the private more competitive energy market create a competitive market for
sector? for consumers. consumers but revenue made
from the sale is re
om re-invested in
electrical infrastructure.
What will Honduras do if oil A National Oil Company is A National Oil Company is
is found in territorial waters? formed which works in formed with links to Venezuela
partnership with International Oil and other A.L.B.A. Countries.
Companies.
What will Honduras Work with Geographic Work with A.L.B.A. as a primary
Governments' foreign policy neighbours in O.A.S. & CAFTA group member including military
be towards its nearest with no Military agreements. consequences.
neighbours?
Will the UN intervene in the U.N. intervenes and helps return U.N. Intervenes & advocates
current political unrest? Honduras to the current state of constitutional change on the way
political stability. to returning state to democratic
control, helping separate Judicial
from political.
Will the Judiciary continue The Judiciary are not appointed The Judiciary continue to be
to be linked to the Political by political parties but are linked to political parties
systems? accountable to the people
Will the Maquila business Maquila production becomes Maquila production diversifies
model develop to cope uneconomic - leading top a into a different model, and
with recession in the USA? reduction in working women. creates more job opportunities
for Women.
What effects will textile USA Policy will no longer support Textile manufacture continues to
import policy of the USA textile manufacture. Selling to be supported from the US.
have on the Honduran E.U. covers shortfall.
economy?
Will changes in Agricultural Honduras Agriculture becomes a Agricultural policy is aimed at
Policy be influenced by more integrated part of domestic staples with cash crops
companies like Wal-Mart? American food supply chain and as a secondary objective.
is supported by agricultural policy
Will population Agricultural, Mining & Tourism People continue to move to
demographics continue to encourage higher wages in rural urban areas .Development of
move to an urban setting? areas, toping labour movement industrial centres around the 4
to the cities. Special economic main urban areas’ due to
zones drive this. infrastructure and power
demands.



How does the catholic The Catholic church does not The Catholic Church Actively
church change the Human intervene at a country level protests at a country level for
Rights record of Honduras? regarding political systems but human rights to be respected.
concentrates at local level to
address injustices.
Will the fishing Industry on The Fishing industry maintains its Fishing Industry maintains catch
the East Coast of Honduras catch sustainably. Cash Crop for at sustainable levels 7 resource is
continue to be a net Export to USA. used to keep Honduran poor fed.
exporter?
What effect will Central The CAFTA Agreement increases The CAFTA Member increases
American Free Trade talks cash crop production towards prices to USA & Europe, some
have on Honduras? USA & Europe. land reclaimed for domestic food
supply security.
What effects would a Increased mining activity resulting Increased mining activity resulting
renewed mining industry in increased employment but in increased employment and
have on the environment? conflicting with Nature reserves export revenue.
for tourist/ecological revenues.
What will happen to If Remittance incomes increase If the remittance incomes
remittance incomes then families will be able to be increase then there are more
better nourished & Educated drivers to leave family and move
leading to less gang to the US illegally - results in more
membership. gang memmembership.
What will the catholic Catholic church focuses on Catholic Church Focus on
church do to affect the lives education of the poor to break feeding the poor via charity and
of under nourished the poverty cycle. working with N.G.O.'s.
children?
Will the level of Maternal Maternal Care stays at these Maternal Care is prioritized again;
Care stay at current levels? relatively high levels. Benefits additional resources added
continue to grow. leading to further reductions in
mortality rates and education
which in turn leads to a
population boom.
Will focus on preventative Chaga's Disease continues to be Chaga's disease raised as an
health campaigns have an seen as a low priority. area of concern.
impact on Chagas disease?
If unemployment rates stay Unemployment rates are Unemployment rates are high
at historical levels, what continually high so parents see which lead to poverty which
effects will this have on primary education as the only results in lower attendance in
primary education? way to give children a chance. primary education.
What would be the effect A new "Coffee Cartel" could A new "Coffee Cartel” could
of the re-formation of the create a market that would help create a mono
mono-culture similar to
“Coffee Cartel”? Honduras rise out of poverty. the Banana plantations of the
early 20th century.



5. Clustering of Uncertainties (Sheet 4)

Cluster Heading Uncertainties
Cluster # 1 ⇒ PL party regaining power in general election
⇒ PN party coming to power in next general election
Immediate political ⇒ Role of small parties in general election in 2009
repercussions and ⇒ Will election happen in 2009?
consequences of the Coup ⇒ Nature & impact of the decrease in military forces
⇒ Impact of Honduran government with removal of US army
from El Salvador airbase
Cluster # 2 ⇒ Impact of industrialists buying property on beaches
⇒ Ability of Honduras to develop eco-friendly tourism
friendly
Impact of tourism on rural ⇒ Change in Garifuna culture by tourism
socio-economic conditions ⇒ Does increase in tourism lead to child prostitution
⇒ Impact of tourism on child education
⇒ Will population demographic continue to move to urban
setting?
Cluster # 3 ⇒ Impact of reducing dependencies of trade in coffee &
banana
Ability of Honduras to carry ⇒ Change in agriculture crop type – Diversifying / Growing new
through industrial and crops on self sufficiency on staple crop
agricultural diversification ⇒ Exploration of minerals to increase GDP
⇒ What effects will Central American free trade have on
agriculture?
⇒ Possibility of exploiting highly precious metal like zinc silver in
Honduras feasible
⇒ What effects will Central American free trade have on
agriculture?
⇒ What effect would a renewed mining industry have on the
environment?
⇒ Efficiency of the Honduran government in chalking out an
ecological policy on mining
⇒ Ability of Honduras to develop bio-fuel from sugar cane &
fuel
African palm
Cluster # 4 ⇒ Will Changes in agricultural policy be influenced by
companies like Wall-mart
Government agricultural ⇒ How much possible is inculcating Agricultural education in
policies and their effect on Primary education?
child nutrition ⇒ Availability of Children hospitals in rural areas.
⇒ Adaptation of latest Techniques and Technologies for
Agricultural development across the country
s
⇒ What will Catholic Church do to affect the lives of under
nourished children?
⇒ Role of wheat and Rice farming on Malnutrition of children in
rural areas.
⇒ How effective is role of NGO’s in spreading the message
“Feed a child in Honduras”?


Scenario Planning to Achieve UNDP's MDG for Honduras

Scenario Planning to Achieve UNDP's MDG for Honduras

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