2. DISCLAIMER
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
The presentation may contain forward-looking statements We undertake no obligation to publicly update or
about future events within the meaning of Section 27A of revise any forward-looking statements, whether as
the Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E a result of new information or future events or for
of the Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as amended, that any other reason. Figures for 2013 on are
are not based on historical facts and are not assurances of estimates or targets.
future results. Such forward-looking statements merely
reflect the Company’s current views and estimates of
future economic circumstances, i d t
f t i i t industry conditions,
diti All forward-looking statements are expressly
company performance and financial results. Such terms qualified in their entirety by this cautionary
as "anticipate", "believe", "expect", "forecast", "intend", statement, and you should not place reliance on
"plan", "project", "seek", "should", along with similar or any forward-looking statement contained in this
analogous expressions, are used to identify such forward- presentation.
looking statements. Readers are cautioned that these
statements are only projections and may differ materially
from actual future results or events. Readers are referred NON-SEC COMPLIANT OIL AND GAS RESERVES:
to the documents filed by the Company with the SEC,
specifically the Company’s most recent Annual Report on CAUTIONARY STATEMENT FOR US INVESTORS
Form 20-F, which identify important risk factors that could We present certain data in this presentation, such
cause actual results to differ from those contained in the as oil and gas resources that we are not permitted
resources,
forward-looking statements, including, among other to present in documents filed with the United
things, risks relating to general economic and business States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC)
conditions, including crude oil and other commodity under new Subpart 1200 to Regulation S-K because
prices, refining margins and prevailing exchange rates, such terms do not qualify as proved, probable or
uncertainties inherent in making estimates of our oil and possible reserves under Rule 4-10(a) of Regulation
g
gas reserves including recently discovered oil and gas
g y g S-X.
S X
reserves, international and Brazilian political, economic
and social developments, receipt of governmental
approvals and licenses and our ability to obtain financing.
2
3. Petrobras Today
Fully integrated across the hydrocarbon chain
Exploration and
p
Downstream
D t Distribution
i ib i Gas and Power
G dP International Biofuels
i f l
Production
• 12 refineries (Brazil) • 7,641 service stations • 9,190 km of gas pipelines in • 24 countries • 3 Biodiesel Plants
• 2.4 mm boed production Brazil
• 2.0 mm bpd refining capacity • 38,1% of market share • 0.7 Bn boe of 1P (SPE) • Ethanol: opening new markets
• 293 production fields • NG Supply: 74 9 million m³/d
74.9
• Oil products sales in Brazil: • 20% share of service stations • 243 th. boed production • Largest domestic producer of
• 96% of Brazilian production 2,285 Kbpd • 3 LNG Regasification biodiesel
terminals by 2013 with 41 • 231 th. bpd refining capacity
• 34% of global DW and UDW • Oil products output in Brazil: MMm³/d capacity • 3rd producer of ethanol in
production 1,997 Kbpd Brazil
• 7,028 MW of generation
capacity
Adjusted EBITDA per Segment (US$ bn) (1) 2012 Proven Reserves (SPE Criteria) ‐ Brazil
3.0
3,2
3.6 1 3
1.3 1.6 15.73 Billion boe
15 73 Billion boe
2.1 2,0
1.1 1.4 1.3
4.1 Shallow Water
0.9 1.1 (0-300m)
8%
11 Onshore
43.4 42,2 8%
30.6
19.3
Deep Water
(300-1,500m)
48%
‐6.9
‐15,0 Ultra-Deep Water
(> 1,500m)
1 500 )
36%
2009 (2) 2010 (3) 2011(3) 2012 (3)
E&P RTM G&P Distribution International
(1) Excludes Corporate and Elimination (2) Adjusted according to average exchange rate (3) IFRS USD 3
4. Ownership
Broad distribution: government, Brazilian and foreign shareholders
Foreign
Shareholders
Non-Voting
35% 19%
Voting
Brazilian
35%
47% Government
16% Non-Voting
Voting
12% 12%
6%
18%
Brazilian Non-Gov’t
Shareholders
Non-Voting
Voting
• Brazilian government, by law, must maintain control. Does so with 61% of voting shares.
• In BM&FBovespa Petrobras is most actively traded stock by shares and volume
BM&FBovespa, stock, volume.
• 2000: ADRs listing on NYSE (PBR and PBR/A)
*Includes: Federal Government, BNDES, BNDESPAR, Sov. Wealth Fund 4
5. Relative Position
Ranked among the leading integrated energy companies
2012 Oil and Gas Production (mm boe/d)
2012 Oil and Gas Production (mm boe/d) 2012 Proven Reserves SEC (bn
2012 Proven Reserves – SEC (bn boe)
25.2
4.2
3.3 3.2 16.8
2.6 2.6 13.3 12.3
2.3 11.3 10.8
1.7 1.6 8.6
6.8
5.2
0.6
Exxon BP Shell Chevron BR Total ENI Conoco BG
Exxon BP Shell BR Chevron Total Conoco ENI Statoil
Gás Oil Gas Oil
g p y( / )
2012 Refining Capacity (mm boe/d) Market Cap (US$ bn) – March 29th, 2013
p( $ ) ,
5.5 404
3.7
2.9 231
209
2.3 2.2
2.1
1.9 134 114 112
0.9 82 77
0.3 73
Exxon Shell BP BR Conoco Total Chevron ENI Statoil EXXON CHEVRON SHELL BP TOTAL BR ENI STATOIL CONOCO
Source: Evaluate Energy (barrels per calendar day, considering company % shareholding and including JVs) and Bloomberg
Note: Peer companies selected above have a majority of capital traded in the public market.
Note: Peer companies selected above have a majority of capital traded in the public market. 5
6. Competitive Advantages
Uniquely positioned to integrate upstream and downstream operations
Abundant reserves 300 km
away from the market
13
Exploration & Production Downstream Gas & Power/ Biofuels/Petrochemicals
• Dominant position in growing • Fully developed infrastructure
• Leader in deep‐water production,
market, far from other refining for processing and transfporting
with access to abundant oil reserves
centers g
gas
• New exploratory frontier, adjacent • Balance and integration between • Integration accross full energy
to existing operations production, refining and demand and hydrocarbon chain in Brazil
6
7. 2013-17 Business and Management Plan Fundamentals
PRIORITY
CAPITAL
PERFORMANCE DISCIPLINE
Financiability
Assumptions
• Management • Priority for
• Investment Grade rating • Guarantee the oil and
maintenance focused on
reaching expansion of natural gas
• No new equity issuance physical and the business exploration &
financial targets with solid production
• Convergence with
International Prices (Oil of each project financial projects in
Products) indicators Brazil
• Divestments in Brazil and,
mainly,
mainly abroad
2013 2017
7
8. 2013-2017 BMP Investments
Approved by Petrobras’ Board of Directors in 03/15/13
2013-2017 Period
US$ 236.7 Billion Financiability Assumptions
• Investment Grade Rating maintenance:
28%
27.4% − Leverage lower than 35%
(US$ 64.8 bi)
E&P − Net Debt/EBITDA lower than 2.5x
62.3% 4.2% • No new equity issuance
(US$ 9.9 bi)
(US$ 147.5 bi)
2.2%
2 2% • Convergence with International Prices (Oil
(US$ 5.1 bi) Products)
1.1% • Divestments in Brazil and, mainly, abroad
(US$ 2.9 bi)
0.4% 1.0% 1.4%
(US$ 1.0 bi) (US$ 2.3 bi) (US$ 3.2 bi)
E&P Downstream G&E International Pbio* Distribuition ETM* Other Areas*
* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel │ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials │Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate 8
9. 2013-2017 BMP Investments
Implementation x Evaluation
Under Implementation Under Evaluation
Total = All E&P projects in Brazil and projects of the
remaining segments in phase IV
+ Projects for the remaining segments,
excluding E&P, currently in phase I, II and III.
US$ 236.7 Billion US$ 207.1 Billion US$ 29.6 Billion
947 projects 770 projects 177 projects
1.0%
6.1% (US$ 0.3 Billion)
62.3%
62 3% 71.2%
71 2% (US$ 1 8 Billion)
1.8
(US$ 147.5 Billion) 27.4% (US$ 147.5 Billion) 20.9% 6.4%
(US$ 64.8 Billion) (US$ 43.2 Billion) (US$ 1.9 Billion)
13.5%
2.9% (US$ 4.0 Billion)
(US$ 5.9 Billion)
1.5%
4.2%
(US$ 3.2 Billion)
(US$ 9.9 Billion)
2.2% 0.5%
(US$ 5.1 Billion) (US$ 1.1 Billion)
1.1%
1 1% 1.4%
(US$ 2.9 Billion) (US$ 2.9 Billion) 73.0%
(US$ 21.6 Billion)
0.4% 1.4% 1.1%
(US$ 3.2 Billion) 0.5% (US$ 2.3 Billion)
(US$ 1.0 Billion) 1.0%
(US$ 1.0 Bililon)
(US$ 2.3 Billion)
E&P Downstream G&E International Pbio* Distribuition ETM* Other Areas*
* Pbio = Petrobras Biofuel │ETM = Engineering, Technology and Materials │Other Areas = Financial, Strategy and Corporate
Phase I: Opportunity Identification; Phase II: Conceptual Project; Phase III: Basic Project ; Phase IV: Execution 9
10. 2013-2017 Business and Management Plan :
Project Portfolio Management
INVESTMENTS UNDER IMPLEMENTATION
US$ 147.5 Billion US$ 43.2 Billion
$ $ US$ 5.9 Billion
$ US$ 3.2 Billion
$ US$ 2.9 Billion
$ US$ 1.1 Billion
$
E&P Downstream Gas & Energy International Distribution Biofuels
Implementation of
Projects under
US$ Evaluations contingent
207.1
207 1 bi*
on:
Results of Technical-
Economical Feasibility
studies;
Availability of Resources
US$
29.6 bi* (financiability);
Competition for available
- US$ 21.6 Billion US$ 4.0 Billion US$ 1.9 Billion US$ 0.3 Billion US$ 1.8 Billion
resources.
E&P Downstream Gas & Energy International Distribution Biofuels
INVESTMENTS UNDER EVALUATION
* US$ 207.1 Billion include ETM (US$ 2,3 bi) and Other Areas (US$ 1,0 bi) investments 10
11. Programs to Support the 2013-2017 BMP
2013-2017 BMP
US$ 236.7 Billion
PROEF
Program to
Increase PROCOP
PRC-Poço
Operational Operating Costs
Program to
Efficiency Optimization
Reduce Well Costs
Program
UO-BC
UO-RIO
INFRALOG – Logistic Infrastructure Optimization Program
PRODESIN – Divestment Program
Petrobras Local Content Management – Take advantage of the industry´s capacity to maximize gains to Petrobras
PROCOP: Focus on OPEX, operating costs of the Company activities – Manageable Operating Costs.
PRC-Poço: Focus on CAPEX dedicated to Wells construction – Investments in Drilling and Completion.
11
12. PROCOP: Optimization of the Operational Activities Increasing
Productivity and Reducing Unit Costs
Benefits ill
B fi will come gradually and will llead to a totall economy of R$ 32 Billi b 2016
d ll d ill d f Billion by 2016.
Initiatives Example
Economy of R$ 32 Billion in 4 years Exploration & Production: Consumption of
chemicals and fuels; Productive drilling rig days;
Maritime and air transportation; Onshore well
Annual Reduction Targets interventions;
Downstream: C
Consumption of chemicals and
ti f h i l d
12 catalyzers; Residual production; Scheduled
9 Stoppages routine; excessive lay day at ports; Fleet
4 7
use; Delivery Schedule;
Manageable Costs
T
Transpetro: Intervention in vessels, terminals, oil
t
C
R$ Billion
and gas pipelines, and tanks;
Gas & Energy: NG consumption to produce
ammonia; Operating cost for the gas pipeline
; p g g pp
network;
Engineering, Technology and Materials:
Supply and inventories of materials; IT costs per
2013 2014 2015 2016 user;
Annual Reduction provided by PROCOP Corporate e Services: Expenditures with
Evolution of Manageable Costs buildings, trips and transportation; HSE
* Expenditures for industrial, administrative and support installations
management.
12
13. PRC-Poço: Program to Reduce Well Costs
Well Construction is a Relevant Portion in Investments
236.7
Other Areas 89.2
147.5
16.3 Infra-structure and Support
24.3 Exploration
Exploratory and Production
E&P 147.5 Development Well Investments
106.9 Production Development
total US$ 75 billion
2013-2017 BMP Brazil E&P
Investments Investments
Increase of drilling rigs fleet and logistic resources
• Petrobras currently has 69 floating drilling rigs for well construction and maintenance in Brazil
Well construction represents:
• 32% of Petrobras investments in 2013-2017 BMP
• 51% of Brazil E&P Investments
13
14. Exploration & Production
2013-2017 Period
US$ 147.5 Billion
16%
(24.3)
73%
(106.9)
11%
(16.3)
Production Development
Exploration
Infrastructure and Support
14 4
1
15. E&P Investments
2013-2017 Period
Exploration Production D l
P d ti Development
t
US$ 24.3 Billion US$ 106.9 Billion
6% 25%
(1.4) (26.2)
24% 43%
(5.8) 70% (46.4)
(17.1)
Post-Salt
32%
Pre-Salt
(34.3)
Transfer of Rights
a s e o g ts
Aside from Exploration and Production Development, E&P infrastructure investments total US$ 16.3 Billion.
15
16. Exploratory Success and Increase in Reserves
More than 3 Discoveries per month between January/2012 and February/2013
53 discoveries in the last 14 months (Jan/12 – Feb/13), from which 25 were offshore (15 in Pre-salt)
Brazil
Discoveries: 53
• Offshore: 25
• Onshore: 28
Exploratory Success Ratio: 64%
Reserves: 15.7 Billion boe
RRR¹: 103% for the 21st consecutive year
R/P²: 19.3 years
Pre-Salt
Discoveries: 15, of which 8 pioneers
Exploratory Success Ratio: 82%
¹ RRI: Reserves Replacement Ratio
² R/P: Reserve / Production
Reserves: 300 km in the SE region, 55% of GDP16
16
17. Reserves and Recoverable Volumes
Rapid growth in reserves from discoveries in deep waters
Proved Reserves – SPE criteria
Onshore Phase Shallow Water Phase Deep/Ultra‐Deep Water Phase
30000
25000 Pre Salt: Sapinhoá
15.73 bi boe
Pre Salt: Lula & Cernambi
Million Boe
20000
Park of Whales, Mexilhão
Roncador
15000
Marlim
Garoupa
10000
Guaricema
Namorado
5000 Carmópolis
0
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Onshore 0‐300m 300‐1500m > 1500m Pre‐salt’s Recovery Volume* Transfer of Rights
* Lula/Cernambi, Iara, Sapinhoá and Whales Park, ranging from 6.7 to 7.9 Billion boe 17
18. Production Curve in Brazil – Oil and LNG
Post-Salt, Pre-Salt and Transfer of Rights
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
NE de Tupi
Baleia Azul Sapinhoá Pilot Roncador IV Iracema Norte Lula Alto Lula Ext. Sul Júpiter Espadarte III
(Cid. Anchieta) (Cid. São Paulo) (P-62) (Cid. Itaguaí) Lula Central
(P-68)
(P-72)
Bonito Florim
Iara NW
Baúna Sapinhoá Norte Lula Sul
Lula Oeste (P-71) Franco Leste
(Cid.
(Cid Itajaí) (Cid.
(Cid Ilhabela) (P-69)
(P 69)
(P-66) Deep Waters
Lula NE Pilot Iracema Sul Franco Sul Sergipe
Franco 1
(Cid. Paraty) (Cid. (P-76)
(P-74) Sul Pq. Baleias
Papa-Terra Mangaratiba) Tartaruga Verde
Carioca Maromba
(P-63) e Mestiça
Thousands bpd
Lula Norte Espadarte I 4,200
Roncador III Iara Horst
(P-67)
(P 67)
s
(P-55) (P-70) Carcará 6%
Franco SW
Norte Pq. Parque dos Entorno de Iara
(P-75)
Baleias (P-58) Doces (P-73) 19%
Papa-Terra Franco NW
(P-61) (P-77)
2,500 2,750
2 750
7%
31%
1%
2,022 1,980 2,022
30% 35%
5% 7% (± 2%)
95%
4-6% p.y. Growth 44%
93% 69% 58%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Post-salt Pre-salt (Concession) Transfer of Rights New Discoveries*
(*) Includes new opportunities in blocks where discoveries have already been found 18
19. NEW PRODUCTION UNITS ‐ 2013‐2014
New platforms built domestically and abroad will contribute to production
Local C t t
L l Content
Top Side /
Project Capacity 1st Oil Hull Bid
Integration Commit. Target
Round
Sapinhoá Pilot Cosco Shipyard Schahin/Modec
120 kbpd 01/05/2013 2 30% 65%
FPSO Cid. São Paulo China Brasfels
Baúna and Piracaba Jurong Odebrecht and Teekay
80 kbpd 02/16/2013 5 60% 81%
FPSO Cid. Itajaí Cingapura Cingapura
Lula NE Pilot Keppel Shipyard QGOG/SBM
120 kbpd 05/28/2013 2 30% 65%
FPSO Cid. Paraty
y Cingapura
g p Brasfels
Papa-Terra Cosco Shipyard Quip
140 kbpd 07/15/2013 0 0% 65%
P-63 China Rio Grande
Roncador Module III EAS Quip
180 kbpd 09/30/2013 0 0% 65%
P-55 Brasil Rio Grande
Parque das Baleias Queiróz Galvão Queiróz Galvão
180 kbpd 11/30/2013 0 0% 63%
P-58 Rio Grande Rio Grande
Papa-Terra TLWP load Floatec Floatec
12/31/2013 0 0% 65%
P-61 out to P-63 Brasfels Brasfels
Roncador Module IV Camargo Corrêa/IESA Camargo Corrêa/IESA
180 kbpd Mar/2014 0 0% 63%
P-62 EAS EAS
Sapinhoá Norte QGOG/SBM QGOG/SBM
150 kbpd Sep/2014 2 30% 65%
FPSO Cid. Ilhabela China SBM/BRASA
Lula - Iracema Sul Cosco Shipyard
150 kbpd Nov/2014 Not define 2 30% 65%
FPSO Cid. Mangaratiba China
* Note: “FPSO Cid. XX” = Leased / “P‐XX” = Owned 19
20. PROJECT INSTALLATION
Petrobras has a strong track record of platforms installation per year
2006-2012 2013-2016
• Petrobras has installed, on average, 5 platforms per year • Between 2013 and 2016 we expect to install an average of 4
from 2006 to 2011. units per year.
• Ramp up of these units was delayed due to limited • Petrobras will have around 40 drilling rigs² available during the
availability of drilling rigs2: (2006: 2, 2011: 26) next 5 years.
7 Track Record of Project
Manati
8MMm³/d Installation1’
P‐54
180mbpd
5 5 5 5
FPSO Cid São
SO Cid Sã
FPSO Cidade de
PPER‐Phase 1 P‐52 Mateus Cid. Paraty
Angra dos Reis
2.7MMm³/d 180mbpd Camarupim 120mbpd
4 10MMm³/d
100bpd
FPSO‐ FPSO‐CIDADE FPSO E.S. PQ FPSO Capixaba
PPER‐Phase 2 P‐61 & P‐63
CAPIXABA DE VITÓRIA DAS CONCHAS (reallocation)
Δ5.3MMm³/d 140mbpd
100mbpd 100mbpd 100mbpd 100bpd
SEILLEAN FPSO‐ FPSO Cid.
FPSO Cid FPSO Cidade de
FPSO Cidade de
P‐55
GOLFINHO PIRANEMA PRA‐1 Niteroi MLL Santos
180mbpd
30mbpd 30mbpd 100mbpd 10MMm³/d 2
FPSO Cid. Rio
P‐34 JUBARTE FSO Cid. De Frade P‐57 Mexilhao Cid. São Paulo
Das Ostras
60mbpd Macaé
30mbpd
100bpd 180mbpd 15MMm³/d
1 120mbpd
SS‐11
P‐50 FPSO‐Cid. RJ P‐53 – MLL P‐51 – MLS P‐56 Cid. Anchieta Cid. Itajaí
j
TIRO/SIDON
180mbpd 100mbpd 180mbpd Mód. 2180bpd 100mbpd 100mbpd 80mbpd
20mbpd
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
1 - Does not include installation of Extended Well Tests / 2 – Over 2,000 meters waterdepth
20
21. OPERATIONAL EFFICIENCY
PROEF ‐ Program to recover and maintain operational efficiency in Campos Basin
Improve Operational Unit Improve production
UO-BC
Efficiency Levels systems integrity
PROEF Increase the reliability to deliver
GOALS production targets of BP 2012 16
production targets of BP 2012‐16
Reach Sustainable Levels of Reduce Risk of Loss of
UO-RIO
Operational Efficiency Operational Efficiency
E&P Recent Operational Efficiency (%)
Operational Efficiency - E&P Operational Efficiency - UO-BC Operational Efficiency - Without UO-BC Operational Efficiency - UO-RIO
100 PROEF Targets
96
96 94 93 93 94 94 94
95 94
95
90 92 93
92
90 90
85 88 88
87
85
80
81
80
75
76
70 72
71
65
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
22. E&P Distribution of Revenues
Stable concession terms have led to higher income per barrel
Breakdown of realization price per boe produced in Brazil
p p p
US$/boe realization price US$/boe realization price
% share of realization price
120 111 112
100%
100
25%
31% 33% 31%
79 80%
80 $31 $30
$
62 60%
23%
21% 21% 21%
60 $22
$20 $20
13%
$13 40% 16%
17% 16%
40 $15
$16 $15
$12 22%
$11 18% 17%
$7 20% 16%
20 $14 $16
$11 $12
17% 14% 13% 15%
$10 $13 $14
$
$9
0 0%
2009 2010 2011 2012 2009 2010 2011 2012
Lifting Cost Exploratory costs + DD&A + Others Income Tax Production Tax Net Income
Brent
*Others include tax expenses, R&D, SG&A 22
22
23. E&P PROFITABILITY
Production of oil, not gas, generates high realization price
Net Production Income (US$/boe)
35
30
25
20
15
5
10
5
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012*
Peers Petrobras
• Production in Brazil highly concentrated in oil: 86% oil and 14% gas
• Higher net profit per barrel yields better return than its peers
Higher net profit per barrel yields better return than its peers
• Stable regulatory environment allows for capturing the benefits of the increase in oil prices
Source: Evaluate Energy Peers: BP, CVX, XOM,RDS, TOT * Petrobras Preliminary
24. PROFITABILITY
New E&P projects will continue to generate attractive returns
45.00%
40.00%
Key Assumptions:
35.00% • 150 000 bpd FPSOs
150,000 bpd FPSOs
30.00% • Production of 500 MM barrels
25.00%
• Ramp‐up in line with industry
• Historic decline rate
Historic decline rate
20.00%
• Oil value = 95% Brent
15.00%
• Does not include exploration and
10.00% acquisition costs
5.00%
.00%
60 70 80 90 100 110 US$/ bbl
Case 1 US$12/boe Capex / US$5/boe Opex
Case 1 – US$12/boe Capex / US$5/boe Opex (expected scenario)
(expected scenario)
Case 2 – US$15/boe Capex / US$7/boe Opex
Case 3 – US$12/boe Capex / US$5/boe Opex without Special Interest (such as Transfer of Rights)
• The graph illustrates the cost‐benefit ratio of a standard production development in Brazil, using
assumptions based on previous experiences
24
25. Pre-Salt Production is a Reality
Production reached 300 thousand barrels of oil per day in Feb/20/2013
Pre-Salt Production Data Technological Challenges Surmounted
Oil Production reached 300 kbpd (of which 249 kbpd High Resolution Seismic: higher exploratory
is Petrobras’ stake), 43% in Santos Basin and 57% in
Campos Basin;
p success
This level was reached with only 17 producing wells, 6 Geological and numerical modelling: better
in Santos Basin and 11 in Campos Basin;
Level reached only 7 years after discovery: production behaviour forecast
• C Campos B i 11 years
Basin: R d ti
Reduction of well construction ti
f ll t ti time f
from 134
• US Gulf of Mexico: 17 years days in 2006 to 70 day in 2012: lower costs
• North Sea: 9 years
Production of 1 million bpd operated by Petrobras will Selection of new materials: lower costs
be reached by 2017 and the 2.1 million bpd threshold Qualification of new systems for production
will be reached by 2020.
Petrobras Pre-salt production’s share: from 5% in gathering: higher competitiveness
2011 (100 3 kbpd) to 6 9% in 2012 (136 4 kbpd)
(100.3 6.9% (136.4 kbpd). Separation of CO2 from natural gas in deep
waters and reinjection: lower emissions and
increase in recovery factor
25
26. Drilling Rigs Availability
Necessity met with imported and domestic units
Drilling Rigs: Imported vs. Domestic
42 42 42 42 42
000m)
g Rigs
2
8 9 6 8
Water Depth > 2.0
Number of Drilling
8 17
31
42 42 23
40 41
34
26 25
19
(W
16
N
8 11 9
5 7
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Imported Rigs Brazilian Rigs (Existing) Brazilian Rigs (New)
28 new domestic drilling rigs from 2016 on: Local Content between 55% and 65%
• Mid‐term needs for drilling rigs are now largely satisfied. Future intermediate demand will be
limited to specific situations and needs.
• Starting in 2016, Brazilian built rigs expected to begin replacing internationally built fleet as
their contracts expire (and subject to total fleet needs).
• If for any reason the domestic rigs are not completed as scheduled, Petrobras has the possibilty
of renewing some or all of expiring leases.
26
27. Downstream Investments
Projects Under Implementation
US$ 43.2 billion 2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS
21%
(9.2)
Refining capacity expansion on the Under
45% 11%
(19.4) (4.9) Implementation Portfolio: RNEST (Pernambuco)
9%
(3.7) and COMPERJ 1st Phase (Rio de Janeiro)
6% 6%
(2.4) (2 8)
(2.8)
1% 6% Refining capacity expansion in design phase:
(0.3) 1% (2,8)
(0.4) Premium I (Maranhão), Premium II (Ceará) and
Projects Under Evaluation
j COMPERJ 2nd Phase (Rio de Janeiro)
( )
US$ 21.6 billion
2%
(0.5)
Diesel and Gasoline Quality Portfolio: REPLAN,
RPBC, REGAP, REFAP and RLAM
16%
(3.5)
64% Fleet expansion: PROMEF – 45
(13.8) 8% Oil and Oil Products transportation vessels
(1.7)
7% 3%
(1.5)
( ) (0.5)
Refining Capacity Expansion Operational Improvement Quality and Conversion Logistics for Oil
Fleet Expansion Petrochemical Ethanol Logistics Corporate
28. Downstream
2012-2016 Investments
2012-2016 Investment Profile Refining Capacity Expansion Fleet Expansion
Operational Improvement Petrochemical
Quality and Conversion Biofuels
Logistics for Oil Projects Under Evaluation
on
US$ billio
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
2012-2016 INVESTMENT HIGHLIGHTS Projects Under Evaluation
High utilization factor on the current assets, combining Implementation of projects depends mainly on:
flexibility to increase margins a.
a Alignment of new refineries costs to
international standards;
End of the first investment cycle in Quality b. Regulatory requirements;
RNEST and 1st Phase of COMPERJ coming online c.
c Resources Availability (Financiability);
d. Competition for financial capacity;
New refineries under evaluation (Phase I)
28
29. Integration and Balance
Construction of new refineries intended to meet Brazilian demand
INTEGRATION BETWEEN OIL PRODUCTION, REFINING CAPACITY AND DOMESTIC MARKET
Thous bpd
PREMIUM I
(2nd phase)
300,000 bpd 4,200
Oct/2020
3,472 3,380
COMPERJ
(2nd phase)
300,000
300 000 bpd
2,788
Jan/2018
2,500
2,255 Abreu e Lima 2,320
Refinery 2,320
2,004 2,147 1,980 (RNE) PREMIUM II
1,814 1,798 1,944 230kbpd 300,000 bpd
1,641
1) Nov/2014 Dec/2017
1,393 2) May/2015
1 323
1,323
1,036
COMPERJ PREMIUM I
(1st phase) (1st phase)
165,000 bpd 300,000 bpd
181
Apr/2015 Oct/2017
... ... ... ...
1980 2000 2010 2012 2016 2020*
Oil and NGL Production ‐ Brazil Total crude oil processed – Brazil Oil Products Market (2 scenarios)
Projects Under Implementation Projects Under Evaluation
* 2020 Total Crude Oil Processed may vary depending on Projects Under Evaluation 29
29
30. Parity: Seeking convergence with International Prices
9 months: +21.9% in Diesel and +14.9% in Gasoline
Seeking convergence with international prices
prices.
In the last 9 months: 4 Diesel price readjustments, totaling +21.9%, and 2 Gasoline readjustments (+14.9%).
Average Brazil Price* x Average USGC Price**
260 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 900
240
800
Impo
220
700
orted Volumes (Thousand bbl / d)
200
180 Losses
600
Prices (R$/bbl)
160
140 Gains 500
120 400
100
300
80
60 200
40
100
20
0 0
an/09
an/10
an/11
an/12
an/13
ar/13
ov/08
Ma
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
Ja
No
ARP USGC (w/ volumes sold in Brazil) Gasoline Imports
ARP Brazil Diesel Imports
(*) considers Diesel, Gasoline, LPG, Jet Fuel and Fuel Oil. (**) USGC price with domestic market prices. 30
31. EBITDA
Growing and stable cash flow generation
Adjusted EBITDA Breakdown per Segment (US$ bn)***
j p g ( $ ) Net Income (US$ bn)
Net Income (US$ bn)*
19.2 20.1
3.0
1.3 3.2
3.6 1.6
2.0 15.5
2.2
1.3
1.1 1.7
4.2 **
1.1 0.9
09 11.0
11
43.4 42.0
30.5
19.3
‐6.9 2009 2010 2011 2012
‐15.6
2009 2010 2011 2012
E&P RTM G&P Distribution International
(*) US GAAP (**) IFRS (***) Adjusted according average exchange rate. Excludes Corporate and Elimination.
31
32. Trade Balance
The image part with relationship ID rId7 was not found in the file.
Rapid demand growth in the last 4 years has led to a shift in the trade balance
Diesel Sales 2009 2012
5,000
+24% (thous. bpd) (thous. bpd)
4,700
4,400
+24%
24%
Thousand m³
m
4,100
4 100
3,800 779
3,500
3,200
705
2,900
2,600
227 548
2,300 549 433
2,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
152 184
2,800
Gasoline Sales
Gasoline Sales +65% 478
397 156 364
2,500 346
Thousand m³
2,200 75
1,900 +3% 81 18
1,600 Exports Imports Balance Exports Imports
1,300 ‐249
1,000
1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
‐231
Balance
Oil Oil Products
32
33. Gasoline and Diesel International Prices The image part with relationship ID rId7 was not found in the file.
Taxes account for significant share of pump price in Brazil
Gasoline Retail Prices Diesel Retail Prices
2012 Average 2012 Average
Brazil USA Chile China Japan Germany Brazil USA Chile China Japan Germany
Refinery Gate Price Anhydrous Alcohol Taxation Disttribution Margin
The refinery gate price for gasoline is currently 37% of the retail price while for
diesel it is 61%
33
34. Gas & Energy Investments
Projects Under Implementation + Under Evaluation Projects Under Implementation
US$ 9.9 billlion US$ 5.9 billion
32%
20% (1.9)
(2.0) 8%
6%
(0.8) (0.3)
(0 3)
19%
(1.1)
25%
(2.5)
43%
(2.6)
(2 6)
46%
(4.6)
Projects Under Evaluation
US$ 4.0 billion
2013-2017 HIGHLIGHTS 3%
(0.1)
12%
(0.5)
Conversion of Natural Gas into fertilizers and other gas chemical products:
UFN III at Três Lagoas (Mato Grosso do Sul)
34%
Natural gas processing and transportation: NGPU Cabiúnas (Rio de Janeiro) (1.4)
51%
Electric energy generation: Thermal Power Plant Baixada Fluminense (Rio de (2.0)
Janeiro)
LNG Regasification: Bahia Terminal (Bahia) Electric Energy LNG
Network Gas-chemical plants
Units in Design Phase: UFN IV (Espírito Santo) and UFN V (Minas Gerais) 34
37. Financial Planning Assumptions
Financing analysis only incorporates projects under implementation
No equity issuance Investment grade maintenance
Main assumptions for cash flow generation and investment levels
2013-17 BMP is based on constant currencies from 2013.
Brent prices (US$/bbl) US$ 107 in 2013, declining to US$ 100 in the long term
Average exchange rate (R$/US$) R$ 2.00 in 2013, strengthening to R$ 1.85 in the long term
Leverage Limit: < 35% │ Maximum leverage in 2013 and 2014 (34%), declining after 2015
Net debt / EBITDA Limit : < 2.5x │ Limit will be surpassed in 2013 and will fall below 2.0x after 2015
Oil product prices in Brazil Convergence to international prices
Divestments US$ 9.9 billion
Pre-salt projects breakeven between US$ 40-45/barrel
Returns on new E&P projects
Big post-salt projects have returns similar to pre-salt’s
37
38. Operating Cash Flow and Funding Needs
246.9 246.9
9.9
10.7 Additional financing needs will be funded exclusively through
39.8
new debt. No equity issuance is envisaged.
61.3 Free cash flow, before dividends, after 2015.
US$ Billion
Annual borrowing needs (2013-2017)
g ( )
$
207.1 Gross – US$ 12.3 billion │Net – US$ 4.3 billion
165.0
Net borrowing needs 50% below previous Plan due to:
• 2017 production, versus 2012, leading to higher
operating cash flows
Fontes Usos
Divestments and restructurings • Declining downstream investments
Cash utilization
Third party
Third-party resources (Debt) • Long-term Brent prices (
g p (US$ 100 vs US$ 90 in the
Operating cash flow (after dividends) previous Plan) and long-term F/X rate (R$ 1.85 vs R$
Investments 1.73)
Amortization
38
39. Leverage
Leverage Net Debt/EBITDA
BMP Target (< 35%)
BMP Target (< 2,5x)
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
• Declining leverage, within the Company’s self-imposed limits
• Net Debt/EBITDA surpasses limit at some points in time, during the Plan period
39
40. Capex and Cash Flow
Free cash flow turns positive with completion of downstream projects
Capex vs. Operating Cash Flow
US$ MM
50000 45,078 Approx.
43,164 42,949
,
40000 $39 billion
$39 billi
30000 27,888
20000
10000
0
OCF 2012 Capex 2010 Capex 2011 Capex 2012 Capex 2017
E&P Downstream Gas & Energy Others
h
• 2013 ‐2017 Business and Management Plan Assumptions:
• Capex‐ Downstream projects not currently under implementation only proceed
supported by cash flows and balance sheet strength
• Operating Cash Flow: Oil production increases by 750 TBPD, generating additional
operating cash flow. Import parity would eliminate downstream losses