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Estimating demand for aflatoxin risk reducing strategies in kenya (2)
1. Estimating Demand for Aflatoxin Risk Reducing
Strategies in Kenya
Marites Tiongco, IFPRI
on behalf of the team
International Food Policy Research Institute University of Pittsburgh
International Center for the Improvement of Maize ACDI/VOCA/Kenya Maize Development Program
and Wheat Kenya Agricultural Research Institute
International Crops Research Institute for the Semi- Institut d’Economie Rurale
Arid Tropics
Uniformed Services University of the Health Sciences
3. Attitude towards
aflatoxin
contamination
Individual and
Household
characteristics (age,
Knowledge about education, gender,
health effects of income, etc.)
consuming Willingness to pay Demand to adopt
aflatoxin control measures
contaminated
food
Characteristics of
risk mitigation
Perceptions of techonologies
health risks due
to aflatoxin
contamination
4. Is WTP greater for technologies that are more
cost effective in reducing risk aflatoxin
contamination?
Are farmer’s demand for risk reducing
technologies influenced by their educational
attainment, experience on high levels of
aflatoxin, health cost, or by their income and
wealth?
5. Objective: To measure producers’ WTP for methods to reduce
alfatoxins in their maize; and to demonstrate how our findings can
be used to analyze policy interventions
Data collection procedures
Technologies that reduces risk of
aflatoxin contamination
Improved seeds less prone to aflatoxin
Drying maize off the ground using
tarpaulin (introduced)
Plastic silos (not yet used for storing
grains)
Metal silos (introduced to few
farmers)
Bio controls (introduced to few
farmers)
6. Aflatoxins are poisonous byproducts of fungi or
moulds commonly found in the soil. These moulds
also grow on the maize plant and later, when the
grain has been stored, they continue to grow.
These moulds particularly infest plants that are
stressed from drought or pest attacks. The mould
grows especially well in poor storage conditions,
producing high levels of Aflatoxin.
7. Severe aflatoxicosis (the illness caused by
Aflatoxins) led to sickness in 317 people in Kenya in
2004, and resulted in 125 deaths from liver failure.
Chronic, lower‐level exposures to aflatoxins can
lead to liver cancer, particularly in people who
constantly suffer from hepatitis B virus (HBV)
infection.
Aflatoxin exposure has also been linked to
disorders of the immune system, stunted growth in
children, and abortion in livestock.
8. Eliminate losses of grain due
to mold more grain of
better quality to eat or sell;
Prevent family from
exposure to risk of aflatoxin
poisoning
9. Description of technology 2:
The metal silo is an improved maize storage
container made of metal sheets by trained
local artisans. After the maize is put inside the
metal silo, it is closed and sealed. No fresh air
can get inside. So after the oxygen is used up,
storage insects like weevil and LGB die. Maize
stored in metal silos is not attacked by pests
and is less infested by moulds. Aflatoxin levels
would therefore be reduced by 60% on
average compared to the conventional
storage in standard bags. A metal silo that
can contain up to 2.5 bags of maize grain at
one time and lasts more than 10 years.
10. Description of technology 3:
Tarpaulins are often used for sun
drying of maize on cobs or grain and
effectively avoid contamination of
maize with dirt or other pollutants.
They prevent maize from coming
into contact with soil, where the
fungi that produce Aflatoxins come
from. Using tarpaulin for sun drying
may reduce Aflatoxin contamination
of maize cobs or grain by 50% on
average compared to drying on
the ground.
11. Description of technology 5:
Some fungi produce Aflatoxin, but others
do not. Scientists have found that by using
biocontrols we can increase the growth of
the fungus that doesn’t produce poison in
order to prevent the poisonous fungus
from growing. This kind of control –
spreading “good” fungus to stop the “bad”
fungus, is called biocontrol. It takes about
4 hours to apply biocontrols to 2.5 acres of
land. They estimate that this can reduce
Aflatoxin contamination by 60% on
average which will last for 2 years on
average
14. 100% 88% of respondents would adopt at
90% the estimated market price
80%
Percent of Respondents
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
60 120 180 215 240 300 360 420 480
Discount or Premium Price Ksh/2kg)
Decreasing demand as price increases
15. 100%
90%
80%
Percent of Respondents
70%
60% 44% of respondents would adopt at
the estimated market price
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
1600 3200 5000 5800 6500 8000 9800 11000 13000
Discount or Premium Price ( per 2.5 bags--90kg/bag)
Decreasing demand as price increases
16. 100%
90%
67% of respondents would
Percent of Respondents
80% adopt at the estimated
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
500 1000 1500 1800 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000
Discount or Premium Price (Ksh/4x4m for 8-10 bags)
Decreasing demand as price increases
17. 100%
90%
80%
Percent of Respondents
70%
60% 50% of respondents would
adopt at the estimated
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
700 1400 2100 2500 2800 3500 4200 4900 5600
Discount or Premium Price (Ksh/2.5bags at 90kg/bag)
Decreasing demand as price increases
18. 100%
90%
80% 70% of respondents would adopt at
Percent of Respondents
the estimated market price
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
300 500 800 900 1000 1300 1500 1800 2000
Discount or Premium Price Ksh/2.5acre of biocontrol)
Decreasing demand as price increases
19. Premium/
Initial price Mean price discount
Improved seed (Ksh/2kg) 240 425 77
Metal silo (Ksh/2.5 bags--
90kg/bag) 6500 5734 -12
Drying on tarpaulin
(Ksh/4x4m for 8bags 2000 2591 30
Plastic silo (Ksh/2.5bags--
90kg/bag) 2800 2800 0
Biocontrol (Ksh/2.5acre of
biocontrol 1000 1575 58
20.
21. Aflatoxin-reduction Factors that significantly influence demand
Technology
Land Assets, age of HHH(-),HHs with children below 5
Improved seed years old, HH heads primary occupation is non-agric,
(Ksh/2kg) and knowledge and perception of risk of aflatoxin
Metal silo Land owned, age of HHH(-),HHs with children below 5
(Ksh/2.5 bags--90kg/bag)years old, and perception of risk of aflatoxin
Land owned and assets, and perception of risk of
Drying on tarpaulin aflatoxin
(Ksh/4x4m for 8bags
Biocontrol
(Ksh/2.5acre of
biocontrol) Land owned and assets
22. Those producers who accepted the market price have
higher willingness to pay for more cost-effective
aflatoxin-reduction technologies
Younger farmers demand more for aflatoxin-reduction
technologies
Liquidity constraint is binding in all technologies; those
with more assets or income are more willing to pay for
aflatoxin-reduction technologies
Perception on risk of aflatoxin contamination affects
demand for improved seeds, metal silos, and tarpaulins
Knowledge on attributes associated with moulds affects
demand of improved seeds
