Norway 2016 OECD Economic Survey rebalancing the economy Oslo 18 January

1. http://www.oecd.org/norway/economic-survey-norway.htm
2016 OECD Economic
Survey of Norway
Rebalancing the economy
Oslo, 18 January 2016
@OECD
@OECDeconomy

2. • Continue prudent macroeconomic policies,
including managing petroleum wealth equitably
and sustainably
• Use structural policies to boost living standards -
- this Survey includes in-depth examination of
higher education (Chapter 1) and rural
economies (Chapter 2)
Key messages of the Survey

3. GDP per capita is high
Source: OECD (2015), "Aggregate National Accounts, SNA 2008 (or SNA 1993): Gross domestic product", OECD National Accounts
Statistics (database); OECD (2015), Analytical Database.
Even accounting for cost-of-
living differences, Norway’s
GDP per capita is now about
67% greater than that of the
Euro Area

4. Well-being is impressive
Source: Calculations based on OECD (2015), "Better Life Index 2015", OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database); OECD (2015),
"Income distribution", OECD Social and Welfare Statistics (database).

5. Norway’s oil fund has become very
large - helping finance the budget
Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance.
All petroleum-sector revenues
are channelled into the fund—
this helps protect the economy
from some of the problems
created by uncertain and
fluctuating oil prices

6. BUT THERE ARE
CHALLENGES

7. The recent oil-price fall illustrates the
vulnerabilities of petroleum dependence
Source: OECD, Analytical Database.
Between Q2 2014 and Q4 2o15 the oil price
fell by 59%, prompting exchange-rate
depreciation

8. Cost competitiveness has been falling
Source: OECD, Analytical Database.
Unit labour costs in Norway are about
60% higher than they were in 2000. In
the Euro Area they are less than 30%
higher

9. Public spending is high
Source: OECD, National Accounts at a Glance.

10. House prices are booming
Source: OECD, Analytical House Price database; Norges Bank (2015), "Monetary Policy Report with financial stability assessment 4/15".

11. PAVING THE WAY FOR
ECONOMIC TRANSITION

12. Containing fiscal expansion
Source: Norwegian Ministry of Finance.
1. Rising oil-fund wealth has
meant allowable fiscal deficits
under Norway’s fiscal rule have
grown rapidly
2. Budgets have been pitched
well below the allowable level

13. Source: OECD (2015), "Revenue Statistics: Comparative tables", OECD Tax Statistics (database); Norwegian Ministry of Finance.
The overall tax burden is high
Norway’s high tax burden makes it
harder the economy to rebalance in
the wake of oil-price shocks

14. Business regulation is in reasonable
shape
Norway scores well in the OECD’s product-market regulation
index, though it is losing its lead as other countries catch up
Source: OECD (2015), "Economy-wide regulation", OECD Product Market Regulation Statistics (database).

15. • Past Surveys have identified several areas
where there is room for efficiency
improvements:
– Primary and secondary education (2008 Survey)
– Health care (2010 Survey)
– Sickness and Disability Benefit (2010 Survey)
• This Survey identifies issues in higher
education (Chapter 1) and in agricultural
support (Chapter 2)
Improving public-spending efficiency

16. GREATER EFFICIENCY
AND QUALITY IN HIGHER
EDUCATION WOULD
HELP REBALANCING

17. In primary and secondary education
high spending has led to only average
performance…
Source: OECD (2014), PISA 2012 Database; OECD (2015), "Education at a Glance 2015", Table B1.1a.

18. …and the same applies to higher
education
Source: OECD (2015), "Education at a Glance 2015", Table B1.2; Author's calculations based on Times Higher Education (THE), "World
University Rankings 2015-2016“.
According to this measure,
Norway’s best university ranks
lower than those in other Nordic
countries

19. Many small providers
Source: Norwegian Social Science Data Services (2015), Database for Statistics on Higher Education.
Many small institutions are
providing tertiary education in
remote areas…
… they often face challenges in
cost-efficiency and quality
• Mergers underway will reduce the number of institutions from 53
to 42, further mergers should be promoted

20. Relatively low degree completion and long
study times are also problematic
Source: OECD (2013), "Education at a Glance 2013", Table A4.1; Statistics Norway.

21. • more targeted incentives for students to
complete their courses on time
• steering student choices for instance, via loan
discounts for subjects with high demand
• making institutions’ funding more contingent on
getting students to complete degrees
Student choices and provider incentives
could be improved by:

22. SHIFTING RURAL
SUPPORT

23. Agricultural subsidy is high
Source: OECD (2015), "Agricultural Support Estimates (Edition 2015)", OECD Agriculture Statistics (database).
Norwegian agricultural
support comprises
around 100 schemes
providing financial
support plus numerous
import tariffs
• Reduce agricultural import tariffs and subsidies
• Encourage economic diversification by broadening support for
rural areas

24. Many small municipalities
Source: Statistics Norway; Statistics Finland; Statistics Sweden; Statistics Denmark.
• Improve the efficiency of Norway’s many small rural
municipalities, including through mergers

25. More Information…
http://www.oecd.org/norway/economic-survey-norway.htm
OECD
OECD Economics
Disclaimers:
The statistical data for Israel are supplied by and under the responsibility of the relevant Israeli authorities. The use of such data by the OECD is without
prejudice to the status of the Golan Heights, East Jerusalem and Israeli settlements in the West Bank under the terms of international law.
This document and any map included herein are without prejudice to the status of or sovereignty over any territory, to the delimitation of international frontiers
and boundaries and to the name of any territory, city or area.
25