Objective Capital's Africa Resources Investment Congress 2011 Ironmongers' Hall, City of London 14-15 June 2011 Day 2: Focus on Zimbabwe Speaker: Ritesh Anand, Invictus asset management

1. AFRICA RESOURCES
INVESTMENT CONGRESS
The Zimbabwe investment opportunity
Ritesh Anand –Invictus Asset Management
IRONMONGERS’ HALL, CITY OF LONDON ● TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY, 14-15 JUN
2011
www.ObjectiveCapitalConferences.com 1

2. Investment Landscape in Zimbabwe
“A Fund Managers Perspective”
25 March 2011 Ritesh Anand

3. OVERVIEW
Strong The Lost A New
Fundamentals Decade Beginning
• Highly educated and • GDP fell from $9.5bn • Formation of
skilled population in 1997 to $3.5bn in Government of
• Good Basic 2008. National Unity in Feb
Infrastructure • Hyper-inflation - 2009.
• Diversified economy peaked at over 500bn • Dollarisation
percent • 2009: First Real GDP
• Strong macro
economic • Political chaos and growth since 1997
fundamentals economic • Underleveraged (due
mismangement to the effects of hyper-
inflation)
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4. STRONG FUNDAMENTALS
Zimbabwe: Historical and Forecast Nominal GDP
10.0
Broadly diversified 9.0
economy
8.0
2009: Real GDP 7.0
growth for the first 6.0
time in over 10 years
5.0
4.0
Good infrastructure
3.0
Highly educated 2.0
population – amongst
the highest literacy 1.0
GDP forecast to double within a decade to >$9bn
rates in Africa* 0
97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
7% GDP growth 10% GDP growth 15% GDP growth
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5. THE LOST DECADE
Zimbabwe YoY GDP growth 1996 to 2008
15%
Significant fall in 10%
GDP from US$9.5bn 5%
The Lost Decade
to $3.5bn in 2008 0%
-5%
-10%
Hyper Inflation
-15%
– over 500bn%
-20%
1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008
Zimbabwe vs. Zambia GDP 1995-2009E
Political Chaos 16
14
12
10
8
Land acquisition 6
program 4
2
0
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Zambia Zimbabwe
Zimbabwe’s GDP was historically 2x that of Zambia. This relationship reversed in 2002
and today Zambia’s GDP is approximately 3x that of Zimbabwe Source: IMF
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6. A NEW BEGINNING
2008 2009 2010 2011
Risks
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7. PROGRESS MADE SINCE 2009
Bank deposits Government revenues
20x
7.3x
Beverage consumption Mobile subscribers
2.7x
3.3x
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8. MACRO ECONOMIC INDICATORS
KEY DATA AND FORECASTS
Real economy 2008 2009 2010E 2011E 2012E
Nominal GDP $bn 4.96 5.62 6.72 8.08 9.32
Real GDP Growth YoY, % -14.8 5.6 8.1 9.3 9.5
GDP per capita $ 423 479 573 689 794
External sector
Trade balance % of GDP -19.6 -28.8 -15.2 -14.7 -12.9
Current account balance % of GDP -15.7 -16.5 -15.5 -10.6 -9.6
Fiscal sector
Government revenue % of GDP 3.3 22 32.1 33.4 33.5
Government expenditure % of GDP 6.4 25 29 31 32.1
Government balance % of GDP -3.1 -2.8 -3.1 -2.4 -1.4
Government gross debt % of GDP 108 110 95 83 76
Monetary policy
Inflation %YoY, YE n/a -7.7 3.5 5.4 6.1
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9. GDP GROWTH
GDP Growth by Sector 2008 – 2011E Contribution to GDP, 2010
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10. CAPACITY UTILISATION IN MANUFACTURING SECTOR
Significant improvement in capacity utilisation since 2008...
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11. BANKING SECTOR
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12. ZIMBABWE INVESTMENT FLOWS
Investment flows still low due to political and regulatory uncertainty
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13. THE INVESTMENT CASE FOR ZIMBABWE

14. ZIMBABWE’S INVESTMENT CASE IS UNDERPINNED BY AN IRREVERSIBLE
PROCESS OF POLITICAL REFORM AND MATURITY …
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15. …. AND AN UNDERLYING POTENTIALLY DIVERSE ECONOMIC VALUE WITH A
STRONG HUMAN CAPITAL BASE…
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16. ….MAKING THE COUNTRY, A FRONTIER MARKET FOR SIGNIFICANT VALUE
UPLIFT ESPECIALLY FOR “FIRST-MOVER INVESTORS”
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17. ZIMBABWE IS WELL ENDOWED WITH RESOURCES
Over 40 different minerals have been extracted to date
with the country boasting significant quantities of key
resources including:
• The second largest platinum reserves in the world
• Kimberlite diamonds in southern Zimbabwe and alluvial
gems in the east believed to be among the largest find in
recent times
• Sizeable gold deposits scattered around the country, with a
total of ~13Mt of estimated resources
• ~502 million tonnes of recoverable coal reserves, and 500
million cubic metres of coal-bed methane suitable for
electricity generation
At its best, mining has been a strong contributor to the
Zimbabwean economy
• Contributed ~7% to Zimbabwe’s GDP in 1986
• Directly employed up to 60,000 people with numerous others
in support industries
• Accounted for over 50% of Zimbabwe’s foreign currency
earnings
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18. ZIMBABWE STOCK EXCHANGE
The ZSE is a relatively well established, tradable,
well regulated exchange by regional standards
ZSE Market Cap U$ Billion
Market Cap $4.41bln USD (June 2011)
Average Daily
$2.8mln (5 months of 2011)
Trade
Settlement Settlement risk exists because of the
Risk use of physical scrip and the lack of a
meaningful guarantee fund. The
leading custodians, Stanbic,
however, is internationally reputable.
Top Ten Companies by Market Cap ( Aug 10)
Exploration Despite a perceived lack of
Risk ownership rights within Zimbabwe
this has primarily been limited to
farmland, and mineral rights to a
lesser degree. Indigenization
legislation will eventually be mitigated
through a compromise agreement.
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19. ZIMBABWE STOCK EXCHANGE (ZSE)
SSA 2009 data
Turnover Market cap GDP Market cap Turnover %
Country ($mn) ($mn) ($bn) to GDP of market
Botswana-DCI 4,278 11 40% n/a
Kenya 477 10,503 30 35% 5%
Malawi 20 1,477 5 30% 1%
Mauritius 347 5,028 9 55% 7%
Namibia 940 9 10% n/a
Nigeria 4,091 32,739 165 20% 12%
SA 331,289 799,065 277 288% 41%
Tanzania 37 3,830 22 17% 1%
Uganda 9 3,751 15 24% 0%
Zambia 44 5,273 14 38% 1%
Zimbabwe* 571 4,186 3.556 118% 14%
Zimbabwe: 3rd Largest Market in SSA by market volumes in 2009
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20. KEY CONCERNS
 Political Uncertainty
 Early elections – without a clear roadmap for elections
 External Debt
 Wage Pressures
 Supply side constraints – mainly power
 Insufficient foreign investment
 Concerns around Indigenisation
 Skills drain
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21. CONCLUSION
 Zimbabwe is gradually recovering from more than a decade of
economic decline
 GDP growth driven by strong recovery in the mining and
agricultural sectors
 Strong Macro economic fundamentals although external debt
remains a concern
 Undervalued assets due to lack of liquidity
 Zimbabwe is well endowed with natural resources
 Highly educated and skilled population
 Good basic infrastructure
 Lack of foreign investment continues to hamper growth
Zimbabwe is on the cusp of a strong and sustained
recovery underpinned by mining and agriculture.
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22. BACKGROUND TO INVICTUS INVESTMENT
MANAGEMENT
Invictus Investment Management Group (IIMG) was established
in 2010 by Ritesh Anand, with a goal of building a world class,
enduring investment advisory and management business focussed
on sub-Saharan Africa. Invictus Capital will initially focus
corporate advisory and capital raising in Zimbabwe, primarily in
the mining sector. Invictus Investments will focus on both listed
and unlisted investment opportunities in Zimbabwe. Ritesh Anand
has over 12 years international investment experience including 7
years at the world’s leading medical research endowment, the
Wellcome Trust. Invictus Investments’ investment philosophy is to
create long-term value through rigorous analysis and thorough due
diligence. Our investment process will incorporate risk
management into every investment decision, using both qualitative
and quantitative approaches. IIM has a successful track record of
investing in Zimbabwe and has built a strong team of investment
partners who will be based on the ground in Zimbabwe.
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23. THANK YOU
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