L’effet du vieillissement de la population sur le prix du logement
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Ce projet vis à examiner l’incidence du vieillissement de la population sur les marchés du logement canadiens et provinciaux. Mario Fortion, professeur Université de Sherbrooke
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Ähnlich wie L’effet du vieillissement de la population sur le prix du logement
Ähnlich wie L’effet du vieillissement de la population sur le prix du logement (11)
Mehr von National Housing Research Committee - Comité national du recherche sur le logement
Mehr von National Housing Research Committee - Comité national du recherche sur le logement (20)
L’effet du vieillissement de la population sur le prix du logement
- 1. L’incidence du vieillissement de la population sur les marchés de l’habitation des provinces du Canada Présentation à la SCHL Mario Fortin, Ph. D. Professeur Département d’économique 1 er avril 2009
- 5. Ratio entre les 25 à 44 ans et les 65 ans et + Est et centre du Canada 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Terre-Neuve Provinces de l’Atlantique Québec Ontario
- 6. Ratio entre les 25 à 44 ans et les 65 ans et + Canada et provinces de l’Ouest 1,5 2,0 2,5 3,0 3,5 4,0 4,5 5,0 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Canada Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta Colombie-Britannique
- 9. Dynamique du prix de l’habitation Stock Courbe variable de l’offre à long terme Prix Courbe à court terme (fixe) de l’offre (dépend du stock de logements existants) Courbe de la demande initiale Courbe de la demande finale A C B La pente de la courbe varie en fonction des coûts à long terme (présence de facteurs de production non reproductibles)
- 11. Évolution du stock Est et centre du Canada 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Terre-Neuve Atlantique Québec Ontario
- 12. Évolution du stock Canada et provinces de l’Ouest 0,00 0,01 0,02 0,03 0,04 0,05 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Canada Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta Colombie-Britannique
- 13. Prix réel de l’habitation Est et centre du Canada 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 80 85 90 95 00 05 Terre-Neuve Atlantique Québec Ontario
- 14. Prix réel de l’habitation Canada et provinces de l’Ouest 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 80 85 90 95 00 05 Canada Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta Colombie-Britannique
- 16. 15-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75+ 1981 2001 0 % 10 % 20 % 30 % 40 % 50 % 60 % 70 % Taux de chef de ménage par groupe d’âge au Canada 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006
- 18. 15-19 25-29 35-39 45-49 55-59 65-69 75+ T.-N. Qc Man. Alb. Can. 0,0 % 10,0 % 20,0 % 30,0 % 40,0 % 50,0 % 60,0 % 70,0 % Taux de chef de ménage par groupe d’âge et par province en 2007 T.-N. Atl. Qc Ont. Man. Sask. Alb. C.-B. Can.
- 20. Taux de chef de ménage centre et Est du Canada 20 % 22 % 24 % 26 % 28 % 30 % 32 % 34 % 36 % 38 % 40 % 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Can. T.-N. Atl. Qc Ont.
- 21. Taux de chef de ménage Ouest du Canada 20 % 22 % 24 % 26 % 28 % 30 % 32 % 34 % 36 % 38 % 40 % 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 Man. Sask. Alb. C.-B.
- 24. Excédent des logements par rapport au nombre de ménages 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Terre-Neuve Atlantique Québec Ontario
- 25. Excédent des logements par rapport au nombre de ménages 0,00 0,05 0,10 0,15 0,20 0,25 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 98 00 02 04 06 Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta Colombie-Britannique
- 28. Hausse continue de 1 % du taux d'intérêt -8,00 % -7,00 % -6,00 % -5,00 % -4,00 % -3,00 % -2,00 % -1,00 % 0,00 % 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Pt ΔSt
- 29. Hausse continue de 1 % du revenu des ménages 0,00 % 0,50 % 1,00 % 1,50 % 2,00 % 2,50 % 3,00 % 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Pt ΔSt
- 31. Hausse continue de 1 % du nombre de ménages 0,00 % 0,50 % 1,00 % 1,50 % 2,00 % 2,50 % 3,00 % 3,50 % 4,00 % 4,50 % 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Pt St
- 34. Croissance projetée du nombre de ménages -0.010 -0.005 0.000 0.005 0.010 0.015 0.020 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Terre-Neuve Maritimes Québec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta Colombie-Britannique
- 35. Nombre de ménages et d’unités de logement 11 000 000 12 000 000 13 000 000 14 000 000 15 000 000 16 000 000 17 000 000 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Stock (croiss. faible) Stock (croiss. moyenne) Stock (croiss. forte) Ménages (croiss. faible) Ménages (croiss. moyenne) Ménages (croiss. forte)
- 36. Projection du prix moyen des habitations au Canada 200 000 250 000 300 000 350 000 400 000 450 000 500 000 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Croissance faible Croissance moyenne Croissance forte
- 37. Projections du prix des habitations dans les provinces (scénario 2) 100 000 200 000 300 000 400 000 500 000 600 000 700 000 08 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 Terre-Neuve Maritimes Québec Ontario Manitoba Saskatchewan Alberta Colombie-Britannique
Hinweis der Redaktion
- Real price peaked in BC in 1994. After slowly receding for 7 years, is exploded after 2001 to reach the top value of 400 000$ in 2007. Alberta’s prices steadily declined after 1981 and took a serious upward momentum only in 2005 to pass beyond the Canadian average in 2006. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have since lowest and most stable prices. In 2007, prices in Saskatchewan have been growing very fastly. The Canadian average mimics the price behaviour of Ontario: peaks in 1988, virtually stable real prices until 2000, then a steady growth to reach the recent peak of almost 280 000$.
- Newfoundland = Terre-Neuve Atlantic provinces = Provinces de l’Atlantique Quebec = Québec Ontario = Ontario - To proxy the demand/supply imbalance caused by aging, I calculated the ratio between population size in the age group 25-44 (prime age) and population size in the 65+ age group. In all regions the ratio was almost stable in the 80s but has started to decline between 1986 (Quebec) and 1990. - New Foundland had the youngest population in the 80s but is becoming the oldest place : the ratio falls rapidly. In Quebec, the ratio if falling almost as rapidly. It is now Ontario that has the youngest population in eastern and central Canada.
- Canada = Canada Manitoba = Manitoba Saskatchewan = Saskatchewan Alberta = Alberta British Columbia = Colombie-Britannique Alberta has by far the most favourable demographic ratio of all Canadian provinces. The oldest province is Saskatchewan.
- To adapt the formula to housing it is necessary to add, uncluding depreciation f such that the formula becomes (1+ )/(i + + f - )
- Price = Prix Short run (inelastic)… = Courbe à court terme (fixe) de l’offre (dépend du stock de logements existants) Long run… = Courbe variable de l’offre à long terme The slope… = La pente de la courbe varie en fonction des coûts à long terme (présence de facteurs de production non reproductibles) Final… = Courbe de la demande finale Initial… = Courbe de la demande initiale Stock = Stock Point A is the initial long-run equilibrium. Following an increase in housing demand, caused by (for example) a rise in Y or a fall in r, the price jumps to B in the short run. High price increases the profit in home building and the supply starts moving to the right. The final equilibrium is at point C where price equals cost. There is a final short run vertical supply curve (not shown on the graph) that intersects the final demand curve a point C.
- Terre Neuve = Terre-Neuve Altantic = Atlantique Quebec = Québec Ontario = Ontario Not surprisingly, the lowest addition to housing stock is in New Foundland and the faster is in Ontario.
- Canada = Canada Manitoba = Manitoba Saskatchewan = Saskatchewan Alberta = Alberta British Columbia = Colombie-Britannique Addition to the housing stock has been much faster in western provinces, particularly in Alberta and British Columbia. Annual variations in BC were extremely wide between 1990 and 1998. Starting in 1998 and for 5 years, the annual growth was lower in BC than the Canadian average, but construction has since picked up. At the opposite, Manitoba and particularly Saskatchewan has had very low construction.
- New Foundland = Terre-Neuve Altantic = Atlantique Quebec = Québec Ontario = Ontario The lowest price are observed in the Atlantic provinces and New Foundland and the highest is in Ontario Real price peaked in 1988 in Ontario and Quebec. It picked up again significantly only after 2000 in both provinces and have now exceeded the previous peak.
- Canada = Canada Manitoba = Manitoba Saskatchewan = Saskatchewan Alberta = Alberta British Columbia = Colombie-Britannique Real price peaked in BC in 1994. After slowly receding for 7 years, is exploded after 2001 to reach the top value of 400 000$ in 2007. Alberta’s prices steadily declined after 1981 and took a serious upward momentum only in 2005 to pass beyond the Canadian average in 2006. Manitoba and Saskatchewan have since lowest and most stable prices. In 2007, prices in Saskatchewan have been growing very fastly. The Canadian average mimics the price behaviour of Ontario: peaks in 1988, virtually stable real prices until 2000, then a steady growth to reach the recent peak of almost 280 000$.
- Title = Taux de chef de ménage par groupe d’âge au Canada
- Title = Taux de chef de ménage par groupe d’âge et par province en 2007 T.-N. ATL QUÉ ONT MAN SAS ALB C.-B. CAN
- Taux de chef de ménage : centre et est du Canada CAN T.-N. ATL QUÉ ONT
- Taux de chef de ménage : ouest du Canada MAN SAS ALB C.-B.
- New Foundland = Terre-Neuve Atlantic = Atlantique Quebec = Québec Ontario = Ontario Alberta has by far the most favourable demographic ratio of all Canadian provinces. The oldest province is Saskatchewan.
- Manitoba = Manitoba Saskatchewan = Saskatchewan Alberta = Alberta British Columbia = Colombie-Britannique Alberta has by far the most favourable demographic ratio of all Canadian provinces. The oldest province is Saskatchewan.
- In the price equation : Change in real income has a positive impact (7%) while change in the interest rate a strong and highly significant impact on housing price : a one percentage point rise decreases housing price by 4.7%. Lag price is not significant but lagged real income, interest rate and stock are significant. In the stock equation : a 1% increase in real price increases by 0.0245% the change in the stock while the lagged stock has a coefficient of -0.045. In the Canadian system, population change has a positive but not significant impact on price.
- In the price equation : Change in real income has a positive impact (7%) while change in the interest rate a strong and highly significant impact on housing price : a one percentage point rise decreases housing price by 4.7%. Lag price is not significant but lagged real income, interest rate and stock are significant. In the stock equation : a 1% increase in real price increases by 0.0245% the change in the stock while the lagged stock has a coefficient of -0.045. In the Canadian system, population change has a positive but not significant impact on price.
- In the price equation : Change in real income has a positive impact (7%) while change in the interest rate a strong and highly significant impact on housing price : a one percentage point rise decreases housing price by 4.7%. Lag price is not significant but lagged real income, interest rate and stock are significant. In the stock equation : a 1% increase in real price increases by 0.0245% the change in the stock while the lagged stock has a coefficient of -0.045. In the Canadian system, population change has a positive but not significant impact on price.
- In the price equation : Change in real income has a positive impact (7%) while change in the interest rate a strong and highly significant impact on housing price : a one percentage point rise decreases housing price by 4.7%. Lag price is not significant but lagged real income, interest rate and stock are significant. In the stock equation : a 1% increase in real price increases by 0.0245% the change in the stock while the lagged stock has a coefficient of -0.045. In the Canadian system, population change has a positive but not significant impact on price.
- In the price equation : Change in real income has a positive impact (7%) while change in the interest rate a strong and highly significant impact on housing price : a one percentage point rise decreases housing price by 4.7%. Lag price is not significant but lagged real income, interest rate and stock are significant. In the stock equation : a 1% increase in real price increases by 0.0245% the change in the stock while the lagged stock has a coefficient of -0.045. In the Canadian system, population change has a positive but not significant impact on price.
- In the price equation : Change in real income has a positive impact (7%) while change in the interest rate a strong and highly significant impact on housing price : a one percentage point rise decreases housing price by 4.7%. Lag price is not significant but lagged real income, interest rate and stock are significant. In the stock equation : a 1% increase in real price increases by 0.0245% the change in the stock while the lagged stock has a coefficient of -0.045. In the Canadian system, population change has a positive but not significant impact on price.
- Alberta has by far the most favourable demographic ratio of all Canadian provinces. The oldest province is Saskatchewan.
- Alberta has by far the most favourable demographic ratio of all Canadian provinces. The oldest province is Saskatchewan.
- Alberta has by far the most favourable demographic ratio of all Canadian provinces. The oldest province is Saskatchewan.
- New Foundland = Terre-Neuve Maritimes = Maritimes Quebec = Québec Ontario = Ontario Manitoba = Manitoba Saskatchewan = Saskatchewan Alberta = Alberta British Columbia = Colombie-Britannique