This is a copy of the GoNorth Festival keynote presentation I gave, with added notes to explain the slides to anyone who wasn't there

1. GoNorth
June 4th
Neil Cartwright
www.MillionMedia.com

2. Where Next?
The Future Of Digital…
This is a summary of the presentation Neil
Cartwright gave at the GoNorth festival
opening keynote. The blue panels are notes
added to assist the understanding if viewing
the the presentation remotely. Some panels
have been edited for better viewing.

3. The Generation Gap
• “People couldn’t stream so had
to wait for music to be played on
the radio”
• “The iPod has made music
portable, which means you can
listen to it anywhere”
• “People stopped listening to CD’s
whenYouTube was invented”
• “Before Napster people had to
pay for music”
Students at a college I lectured
at were asks to write an
assignment at the end of term.
Some of their comments
highlight how a ‘younger
generation’ view change within
the music industry

4. We constantly
overestimate the impact
technology will have in
one year but
underestimate the
impact it will have in ten.
- Bill Gates
“

5. It all started for
me with the
ZX81. This PC
had 1k of
memory,
enough to hold
0.2 seconds of
music.

6. August 7th 1991
The world’s first web page was
made live.

7. Facebook, Google, Amazon,
Twitter etc - can all be traced
back to this one page.

8. http
www
HTML
URL’s
Web browser
Web server
Sir Tim Berners Lee
In 1991 the ‘world wide web’ was
launched. We are now all familiar with the
strange terms used in the web’s early days

9. Sony Music, 1997
!
No email
One internet PC
No iPods
“Pidgeon Holes”
Business was very different back in
1997. Even communication tools
such as email were in their infancy.
And yet only 16 years later over half
of Sony’s global revenue is now
generated by ‘digital’ formats.

10. Difference in Perception
How I See Me
How Anyone Under 20
Sees Me

11. We constantly
overestimate the impact
technology will have in
one year but
underestimate the
impact it will have in ten.
- Bill Gates
“
So, let’s remind ourselves of Bill
Gates’ quote and see what has
changed in 10 years

12. Change in 10 years
2007
2008
2006
2006
2006
2013

13. We can see that although change is constant
it can be almost imperceptible at the time.
Therefore, how do we predict what is going to
change and why do companies find it so
difficult?

14. The graph shows the dramatic
drop in US album sales over a 10
year period. The failure to predict
change was catastrophic to the
people working for the high street
retailers who closed as a result.

15. !
Companies are quick to adopt
technologies that support their
business model but are slow to
adopt technologies that disrupt it.
- Clayton M. Christensen,The Innovators
Dilemma
“

16. This is Steve Sasson who in 1975
invented the world’s first digital
camera. It was 0.01 mega pixels and
took 23 seconds to take a photo. But
which company did he work for?

17. • 1975, Invented digital camera
• 1976, 90% of photographic US film sales and 80%
of cameras
• 1990’s, “Kodak Moment”
• 1996, $15.7bn revenues
• 2012, filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy

18. It was filmless photography,
so management’s reaction
was, ‘that’s cute - but don’t
tell anyone about it’.
Steve Sasson, Inventor of the
digital camera
“

19. iTunes
The “traditional” music
industry gave us the choice
of buying singles, albums or
compilations. The digital
service most favoured by
the music industry gives us
the choice of buying….
singles, albums or
compilations. In other
words, the music industry
has offered consumers a
‘solution’ that is most like the
one that went before.

20. iTunes has dominated the
paid music market since its
launch. This is often cited as
proof that the music industry
“gets” digital and has offered
consumers an alternative to
piracy.

21. However, as a percentage of all
the music traded, shared and
streamed, iTunes represents a
tiny fraction. It’s clear that
consumers have rejected the
download model favoured by
the industry and want a more
convenient and cost effective
way of accessing music with
their multitude of devices.

22. The drop in global music
sales has been huge, yet
people’s appetite for
music is higher than ever.
Clearly the market
demand for music is not
being fulfilled due to the
industry’s general
reluctance to embrace a
‘disruptive’ model such
as streaming or P2P

23. If something is going
to happen in the end,
you may as well do it
in the beginning.
- Henry Kissinger
“
Consumer trends, such as streaming and
mobile phones should be seen and acted
upon. Too often companies look to the past and
say, “Well, that has worked well for us” rather
than in to the future and make the changes that
may be necessary to their business.

24. The total number of streams (UK) in 2013 (3.7bn) is
more than the total number of singles sold in 60
years.

25. 26% of all entertainment revenue is now access to
content
Millions of consumers are showing
entertainment industries the way they want to
consume their products by signing up with
‘on-demand’ services.

26. 90% of all the world’s data was created in the last 2
years The staggering amount of data created is
growing exponentially each year and is an
indication of how important our browsing,
purchasing, sharing and social media habits
will become to companies.

27. NFC
Biggest revolution is yet to come…..?
50% of all
marketing will
be spent on
SoMoLo
Gerd
Leonard
I believe NFC will have
as great an impact on
our lives as any
previous technology.
The ability to tap on
virtually any object with
our phones, allied with
the ability to purchase
through an app or use
our mobiles to pay will
profoundly alter the way
companies do business.

28. Feeling overloaded?
Our constant need to feel
connected is a cause of
anxiety, stress & sleep
disorders. Furthermore, could
children be affected by the
constant stimulus? Many
people can feel overwhelmed
by new technology.

29. We look far less to the mainstream for our
influences. Online communities, niches, tribes,
personal networks, social media, digital natives.
Fashion, music, films and television will change
dramatically but content worth less and less.
!
!
PewDiePie is the most subscribed YouTuber in the
world (27m subscribers) and so probably has more
influence over his audience than any mainstream
media. And yet the photo of him was only
recognised by a handful of the younger members in
the audience at GoNorth.

30. Are we becoming more disconnected
as we become more connected?
We are feeling a growing disconnect with politicians, corporations,
banks, media, security services and ‘those in power’, resulting in
seismic, life changing events such as Scottish independence vote,
Arab Spring, Ukraine, UKIP, etc. And yet simultaneously we are
more connected to our friends, family, communities and personal
networks. The impact of the Internet is huge and will affect
enormous social change and upheaval that is very difficult to
predict.

31. Bladerunner
An illustration of how difficult to future can
be to predict. In 1984 Ridley Scott’s
masterpiece, “Bladerunner”, featured hover
cars, space travel and androids so
humanlike they didn’t even know they were
androids. And yet, which future year was
Bladrunner set in?