Presentation given at MRO Americas 2013 in Atlanta (April 16th). Discusses the impact of red-eye flight operations, quick gate turns and utilization targets on airline on-time performance. The presentation illustrates the strong negative correlation between additional aircraft utilization and propagating system delays, with an average seven minute delay penalty for flights after a red-eye versus those after overnight maintenance activity. Provides metrics for application in airline schedule planning.

1. Unlocking the Power of Aviation Operations Data
MRO 2013 Presentation
Quantifying utilization, turn time,
and RON impact on departure reliability
Joshua Marks
josh@masflight.com
Mobile. +1 (703) 994-0000
4833 Rugby Avenue, Suite 301
Bethesda, Maryland 20814
www.masflight.com
April 16, 2013

2. OVERVIEW
Today’s Discussion
Reliability, schedules, and turn times have an
impact on departure reliability and maintenance.
• Daily Utilization vs. On-Time Departures
• Differences in narrowbodies and widebodies
• Scheduling patterns
• Impact of red-eye flying
• Scheduled and actual turn times
Do the significant differences among U.S.
carriers explain the differences in reliability?
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 2

3. C O M PA R I N G O T P A N D U T I L I Z AT I O N
On-Time Departure Performance Daily Aircraft Utilization (hrs)
(within 15 minutes of schedule) (Based on total fleet sizes)
January 2013 – System Ops January 2013 – System Ops
94.1% 12.1
93.1% 12.0
89.9% 10.3
87.0% 10.1
85.8% 10.1
83.5% 10.0
81.9% 9.5
81.0% 9.4
78.0% 9.3
76.3% 9.1
72.7% 9.0
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 3

4. U T I L I Z AT I O N V S . O T P
Utilization correlates to on-time performance
Daily Utilization vs. On-time Departures Narrowbodies
January 2013 System Operations By Day of Week
100.0%
Correlation Coefficient -0.53
90.0%
ONTIME DEPARTURE PERFORMANCE
100% Includes AA, AC, AS,
B6, 80.0%
F9, FL, NK, UA, US,
95% VX and WN
70.0%
90%
60.0%
85% 7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0
80% Widebodies
100.0% by Day of Week
75%
70% 90.0%
65% 80.0%
60% 70.0%
7 9 11 13
HOURS OF DAILY UTILIZATION 60.0%
7.0 9.0 11.0 13.0
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 4

5. D A I LY S C H E D U L I N G PAT T E R N S
Prevalence of red-eyes
AA, UA, DL and US have similar exposure to red-eye operations
NORMALIZED DEPARTURES PER HOUR (LOCAL TIME) BY AIRLINE (JAN 2013)
80.0 100.0
80.0
60.0
60.0
40.0
40.0
20.0 20.0
- -
11p-5a
10a
11a
12p
10p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
11p-5a
10a
11a
12p
10p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
100.0 120.0
80.0 100.0
80.0
60.0
60.0
40.0
40.0
20.0 20.0
- -
11p-5a
11p-5a
10a
11a
12p
10p
10a
11a
12p
10p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 5

6. D A I LY S C H E D U L I N G PAT T E R N S
Prevalence of red-eyes
Spirit and JetBlue have significant exposure to red-eye impact!
NORMALIZED DEPARTURES PER HOUR (LOCAL TIME) BY AIRLINE (JAN 2013)
80.0 100.0
80.0
60.0
60.0
40.0
40.0
20.0 20.0
- -
11p-5a
10a
11a
12p
10p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
11p-5a
10a
11a
12p
10p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
120.0 80.0
100.0 70.0
80.0 60.0
50.0
60.0 40.0
40.0 30.0
20.0 20.0
10.0
- -
11p-5a
10a
11a
12p
10p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
11p-5a
10a
11a
12p
10p
5a
6a
7a
8a
9a
1p
2p
3p
4p
5p
6p
7p
8p
9p
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 6

7. I M PA C T O F R E D - E Y E F LY I N G
Red-Eyes Hurt OTD Performance
Average departure delay minutes are significantly higher for red-eyes
18.0
Redeye or Quick 2nd Turn 15.7
16.0
14.0 Remain Overnight 13.2
DEPARTURE DELAY MINUTES
12.0
10.0 9.1
8.0
6.3 6.7
6.0
4.1
4.0
2.7
1.6 1.5 1.8 1.4
2.0 0.9 1.2
0.4 0.5
0.0
-0.4 -0.5
-2.0
-1.8 Minutes of delay
-4.0
Alaska US Air Virgin Delta American JetBlue United Frontier Spirit
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 7

8. PLANNING FOR RECOVERY
Airlines Build Recovery into Gate Turn Times
Scheduled Turn Time (Blue) vs. Average Actual Turn Time (Red)
by Airline and Fleet, January 2013
100
90 Scheduled Time on Gate Additional Time Spent on Gate
80
70
Minutes on Gate
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
WN B6 F9 AA DL FL NK DL DL B6 DL US AS AA VX FL DL US UA DL UA
737 190 320 M80 DC9 717 320 M90 M80 320 320 737 737 737 320 737 737 320 320 757 737
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 8

9. CONCLUSIONS
Utilization, turns and on-time metrics
What are the key points observed?
UTILIZATION VS. OTP SCHEDULING PRACTICES
There is a quantifiable link Carriers that schedule aggressive
between daily utilization of a fleet night flying operations leave little
type and on-time performance time to “catch up”
RED-EYES HURT! GATE TURNS
An aggressive red-eye schedule Airline turn times vary, but most
creates morning delays that carriers buffer additional gate time
create extended disruption into block plans to recover
CONFIDENTIAL AND PROPRIETARY – Slide 9