1. Prepared by:
Team 1
Michele, Lofton , Misty,
and Liana

2. The current condition of the
economy, in our Option:
 Possibly critical
 America has an huge deficit. [http://zfacts.com/p/461.html
]National Debt Clock
 Our team believes the economy is coming back slowly.
 As a result some our teams family situations are changing in
positive ways. While others are seeking wealth elsewhere.
 Lofton’s dad is in real-estate and seems to have more work these days.
 Michele’s family who lost her government job several years ago has been
looking the last four years is now getting calls from recruiters for good
paying jobs instead of small businesses who were not able to pay her much.
 Another part of Michele’s family made 1 million last year as Sub-Contractors
but are leaving to morocco for Contracts in the desert of North Africa, they
are not getting rich here even handling that type of money.

3. WHAT THE ECONOMY IS DOING
TODAY
 The Economy is trying to recover, as they analysts say it is
turning around slowly.
 HEADLINES:
 When the president entered office on Jan. 20, 2009,
the economy was issue No. 1. It still is today. Here's a
look at where the economy stood then and what's
changed since.
[http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2012/news/economy/1206
/gallery.Obama-economy/index.html?iid=SF_E_Highlight]
 Consumer Confidence Climbing. Growth up. Expansion up.
No inflation pressures in the Feds eyes.
[http://economistsview.typepad.com/timduy/ ]

4. What is an economic indicator:
"Business Indicators“
 statistic about the economy.
 Covers selected quarterly data and offers a One
application of economic indicators is the study of
business cycles.
 used to compare to past quarters and years in in the
economy.

5. Why are Economic Indicators Important?
 major shift and trends
 understanding outcomes of problematic events, seeing the unknown.
 Put ting numerical meaningful values. The only way to see for a fact documented
proof of: What is going on, what is gong tot happen, this shows our expectations,
makes order out of chaos. We know exactly how many, the probability of events.
 To try to describe the operations in the role of the aggregate,. Whether to bet on this
or that outcome, Measure frequencies, challenge our intuitions, View information
historically, to put into context and subtext, ect. See [www.pedictwise.com ] .
 To Speculate, more accurate than the polls or the news.[ www.makingsence.com] Paul
Solomon.
 Every week there are dozens of economic surveys and indicators released. In the past,
only professionals and economists had the advantage in receiving this type of data
in a timely fashion. Fortunately, the internet has changed this giving everyone access.
Economic indicators can have a huge impact on the market; therefore, knowing how
to interpret and analyze them is important for all investors.
 Markets use information to set prices. Investors use all the information at their
disposal to make decisions. If a set of economic indicators suggest that the economy is
going to do better or worse in the future than they had previously expected, they may
decide to change their investing strategy. Read more:
[http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/#ixzz29Eq9FEtl]

6. How do indicators help policy makers make
decisions?
 All four indices are aggregated to a “Policy Performance Index”, PPI, and presented as a line
chart organized in concentric graphs. • the size of each segment of the graphs reflect the
importance (the “weight”) of the issues for politics or business; each segment reflects the
judgment of current policy performance on a scale, to see the good and the bad. Read more:
[http://esl.jrc.it/envind/idm/idm_e_09.htm]
 Certainly, the decision of the voter will not be taken on the basis of indicators alone. Many
other factors play a role. As they reveal the success or failure of policy makers decisions.
 There is no causal link between policy decisions or company will take.
 Indicators instead punish bad decisions, and reward good ones. Decisions come that come
along with the indicators.
 Pitfalls:
 If the media misuses GDP as a measure of success; then it is possible any decision that
increases GDP is viewed as “good”, even if it could decrease real welfare.
 We can look at our four indicators in business and compare their similarities and differences.

7. How do they work with the Circular
Flow Model?
 A visual model of the economy that illustrates how households and
businesses interact through markets for products and markets for
resources. The top half, represents product markets: Households interact
with business firms to supply labor, for income, and use their incomes to
buy their goods and services. The first interaction occurs in markets for
resources, second occurs in markets for products.
[http://econperspectives.blogspot.com/2008/04/circular-flow-
diagram.html http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Circular_flow_of_income[
 Households allow Financial sector “Businesses” to hold savings. Pay tax
(direct & indirect) to the Government.
[http://wiki.answers.com/Q/In_the_circular_flow_of_the_economy_what
_do_households_do [
 http://books.google.com/books?id=TllDu7ibouwC&pg=PA105&lpg=PA105
&dq=capacity+utilization+and+circular+flow+model.&source=bl&ots=cOz
ferUWoX&sig=Y9nmbURZgTfwhZHZFb8vfJAj88k&hl=en&sa=X&ei=1lF8U
J7qIIPo9ASfyIDwDg&ved=0CB0Q6AEwAA#v=onepage&q=capacity%20uti
lization%20and%20circular%20flow%20model.&f=false

8. How do they work with Aggregate Supply and
Aggregate Demand Models?
 Aggregate demand and supply measure the total demand and supply of goods and services across an
entire economy.
 Aggregate demand simply means spending — spending by households, businesses and governments
for consumption goods and services or investments in structures, machinery and equipment. finding
some way to create jobs and stimulate growth. But the truth is that there really isn’t much we can do.
The only policy that will really help is an increase in aggregate demand. At the moment, businesses
don’t need to invest because their biggest problem is a lack of consumer demand.
 Nonfinancial businesses are now sitting on close to $2 trillion in liquid assets that could be invested
immediately if there was an increase in sales, and banks have $1.5 trillion of excess reserves that could
be lent as well.
 Fiscal policy could raise velocity and growth by getting money moving throughout the economy. But
since that is not feasible, the Fed is the only game in town. Joseph Gagnon, a former Fed
economist, says that it should immediately increase the money supply by $2 trillion and promise to
keep increasing it until the economy has turned around. The right policy can be debated, but the
important thing is for policy makers to stop obsessing about debt and focus instead on raising
aggregate demand.
 Read More: [http://economix.blogs.nytimes.com/2011/08/16/its-the-aggregate-demand-stupid/ ]
 Under aggregate analysis, when aggregate demand rises faster than aggregate supply, inflation rises.
Lagging aggregate demand, meanwhile, may be a sign of an economic recession.
[http://www.ehow.com/facts_5312128_aggregate-economic-analysis.html]

9. Discussing Business Indicators
 Capacity use %
 Manufacturing Orders $
 (PMI) Composite Index of Conditions %
 Wholesale Sales $

10. Explain in detail Capacity Utilization indicator:
Capicity Utilization:
Nations produceive capacity
3 bullets
Otput:
The extent to which an enterprise or a nation
actually uses its installed productive capacity.
Thus, it refers to the relationship between actual
output that 'is' produced with the installed
equipment and the potential output which 'could'

12. *DEMAND* *SUPPLY*
Consumers willing and able to buy … Producers willing and able to
produce and
make available for sale …
Law of Demand: … at each of a series of possible prices during a specific period.
As Price increases,
Demand decreases
DETERMINANTS: Law of Supply:
•Taste or Preference 5 As Price increases,
P quantity supplied increases
•Number of Buyers Surplus
R 4 DETERMINANTS:
NOT •Resource Prices
•Income I
•Normal 3 Equilibrium •Technology
•Inferior C Price & Quantity
•Taxes/Subsidies
•Price of Related Goods E 2
•Substitute Shortage •Prices of Other Goods/Services
•Complementary
1
NOT •Producer Expectations
•Independent ($)
•Number of Suppliers – in pool
•Consumer Expectations 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
•Price QUANTITY
•Income (in thousands)

13. The monthly 5 year GDP including the recession
[http://ycharts.com/indicators/us_monthly_real_gdp/chart#series=type%3Aindic
ator%2Cid%3Aus_monthly_real_gdp%2Ccalc%3A&format=real&recessions=false&
zoom=5&startDate=&endDate= ]

14. What makes up the capacity utilization indicator?
 The capacity utilization rate measures the proportion of plant and
equipment used in production by the manufacturing, mining, electric and
gas utilizes industries.
 Used as an indicator of inflation, especially when it consistently climbs
above the 84% level. When factories operate this close to full
capacity, companies are more likely to raise prices.
 Capacity utilization also reveals employment trends. Factories tend to
hire more people or to have employees work more overtime hours
when production is at peak levels.
 A businesses plant and equipment do effect short run
fluctuations in demand and they can be used at different capacity
utilizations. For maximum profits.
 Read more here:
[http://info.wsj.com/classroom/Indicators/def.data.html]

15. Where and when is the capacity utilization indicator published?
 released monthly
 Revised and is periodically revised
 come out 16 days after the month ends .
 directly from the Federal Reserve.

16. released monthly
Revised and is
periodically revised
come out 16 days after
the month ends .
directly from the
Federal Reserve.

17. Revision of Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization
 The Federal Reserve Board plans to issue its annual revision to the index of
industrial production (IP) and the related measures of capacity utilization
at the end of March 2013.
 The revised IP indexes will incorporate detailed data from the 2011 Annual
Survey of Manufactures, by the U.S. Census.
 Annual data from the U.S. Geological Survey regarding metallic and
nonmetallic minerals (except fuels) for 2011 will also be incorporated.
 The update will include revisions to the monthly indicator (either product
data or input data) and to seasonal factors for each industry. In addition,
the estimation methods for some series may be changed. Any
modifications to the methods for estimating the output of an industry will
affect the index from 1972 to the present.

18. How reliable is the capacity utilization indicator?
 A reliable indicator of Inflation.
 Depends on the extent of the variation of the system.
 I is A Time Cost Trade off.

19. What is the significance of the capacity utilization indicator concerning the
economy's position?
 define current approaches in an ever changing world
market. (TALKING POINTS)
 compare to alternative methods
 of utilization and to different countries. (TALKING POINTS)
 resource is Exploited or over-exploited.
 Need to know if a business / For Example: Our fishing industry.
 Leading indicator
 : meaning it usually changes before the economy as a whole
changes.[1] They are therefore useful as short-term predictors
of the economy.

20.  By itself, what does the capacity utilization indicator tell your
team about what the economy is doing? Growing, stagnating, or
declining in the long term.
 DECLININGRECESSION Like Flocculating,
 lack of demand.
 Plenty of supply.
 Why war decrease our business – sends our resources away.
 Measuring domestic output.
 Know economic pulse- measure and explain production is at present level
(short term). And measuring GDP. Slope of a line how quickly something
changes. Independent variable cause or source. Dependant variable outcome
or effect. Calc slop of the line y= mx+ b. Or measure productivity.
 CAUSES: Transportation, War, Politics, Money
Supply.

21. Describe the activity, according to the data your team gathered, of this capacity
utilization indicator.
 Example: Industrial production fell 1.2 percent in August after having
risen 0.5 percent in July. Hurricane Isaac IN 2011
 restrained output in the Gulf Coast region at the end of August, reducing the rate
of change in total industrial production by an estimated 0.3 percentage point.
Manufacturing output decreased 0.7 percent in August after having risen 0.4
percent in both June and July.
 Precautionary shutdowns of oil and gas rigs in the Gulf of Mexico in advance of the
hurricane contributed to a drop of 1.8 percent in the output of mines for August.
 WHICH Led r:The output of utilities declined 3.6 percent. At 96.8 percent of its
2007 average, total industrial production in August was 2.8 percent above its
year-earlier level.
 Therfore Capacity utilization for total industry moved down 1.0 percentage
point to 78.2 percent, a rate 2.1 percentage points below its long-run (1972--
2011) average. [http://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/current/ ]

22. Notes: Capacity Utilization is up for a second month, pushing past analysts' expectations to stand at
the highest level in more than five years, according to the UMich/Reuters sentiment index; the gauge
rose to 83.1, the highest level since September 2007. [http://www.marketwatch.com/economy-
politics [
(Market Watch) — Producer prices climbed sharply in September for the second month as gasoline
prices jumped, Producer prices rose 1.1% in September after an increase of 1.7% in August, the Labor
Department said. The core wholesale price index, which excludes food and energy prices, was flat in
September after a 0.2% gain in the prior month. Economists surveyed by Market Watch had expected
a 1.0% rise in the headline PPI and a 0.2% increase in the core rate. [See Market Watch's
comprehensive economic calendar. ]
The gain in producer prices, tracking the level of inflation at the wholesale level, was due to
continued higher energy costs — particularly gasoline. Energy prices advanced 4.7% in September
after having risen 6.4% in August. A 9.8% gain in gasoline prices accounted for more than 80% of the
September gain, the Labor Department said.
Food prices rose 0.2% in September, for the fourth consecutive increase. Analysts said the impact of
the severe drought in the Midwest is slowly filtering up the production chain. [Read the full
government report. ]
Treasury prices [/quotes/zigman/4868283/delayed 10_YEAR 0.00% ]turned up modestly and the
dollar [/quotes/zigman/1652083 DXY -0.14% ]edged lower after the report was released. In the core
price index, higher prices for light motor trucks were offset by declining prices for communications
equipment.
Compared with a year ago, the producer price index is up 2.1%, the highest level since March. Core
prices are up 2.3% over the past 12 months.
[http://www.marketwatch.com/economy-politics ]The economy AT A
GLANCE

23. What is the significance of the indicator concerning
the economy's position? Lead, Lag or coincident?
Leading indicators are indicators that usually change before the economy as a whole changes.[1]
They are therefore useful as short-term predictors of the economy. Stock market returns are a
leading indicator: the stock market usually begins to decline before the economy as a whole
declines and usually begins to improve before the general economy begins to recover from a
slump. Other leading indicators include the index of consumer expectations, building
permits, and the money supply.[citation needed] The Conference Board publishes a composite
Leading Economic Index consisting of ten indicators designed to predict activity in the U. S.
economy six to nine months in future. Lagging indicators are indicators that usually change
after the economy as a whole does.
 Coincident indicators change at approximately the same time as the whole economy, thereby
providing information about the current state of the economy. There are many coincident economic
indicators, such as Gross Domestic Product, industrial production, personal income and retail sales. A
coincident index may be used to identify, after the fact, the dates of peaks and troughs in the business
cycle.[2]There are four economic statistics comprising the Index of Coincident Economic
Indicators:[citation needed] Number of employees on non-agricultural payrolls Personal income less transfer
payments Industrial production Manufacturing and trade sale
See following for details http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator

24. By itself, what does the indicator tell your team about what
the economy is doing?
 The economy started crashing about 2004 it started noticeably getting in trouble numbers became
available. About 2010 it started to slowly climb out – America eliminate the middle class. Middle
class keeps balance. France they got real poor or real rich no middle class. Socialism makes poor
poorer like a 3rd world country. We must learn to embrace the middle class it is going to be to deep
of a dive. Crime goes up more. Haves and have not's hungry now. Steve jobs home was unlocked
when alive they robed him. They walked right in you think he would understand because when our
parents were young you cant leave now economy this way. Money not going to far. 3 dollar bead
loaf. If people had notice food up salaries not keeping up with groceries. Go back 2 weeks later up
1 dollar but no raise at work. I have to buy and not prosper now. Product up and decreasing
volume now. Now 123 pack now 8 pack still charging for 12. they getting richer we getting poorer.
You must have a plan you must have a plan you will spend it all up. Pay into 401k wait to receive
money. 10 20 yrs ago is not prospering now. Sam's fill up car loaded down. Now a few bags. People
of power will get richer. Leaders stop bickering power struggle dangerous. Highways falling apart.
Put them to work. Political games suffer. Meet everyday. Put people to work. Drain systems in
Jacksonville all stopped up floods. 3 day rain we flooded now. No workers gutting grass, clearing
pipes ect. People do need help. Wal-Mart will keep you poor to not give benefits no full time work.
Work at Wal-Mart be on Medicaid now. They control temp in store from Arkansas in all store,
inefficient cant turn on air self's keeping control. Millions earned low pay. Wal-Mart tried to hide
the no insurance no benefits jobs. They will hold those 2hrs back. N reason to lack in this world
plenty of resources. Share one hand wash another, give up some of the power. President 1 million
dollars paid salary or so; but spent millions to get job because it is for the power. Commercial to
get a job for 1 mill. Spent it is a mess, mess, mess.

25. Manufacturing Orders
$70
$60
$50
$40
$30
$20
$10
$-
2013
2009
2010
2010
2012

26. Manufacturing Orders
$60
$55
$50 2008
2009
$45
2010
$40 2011
2012
$35
$30
1st Qtr 2nd Qtr 3rd Qtr 4th Qtr

27. Explain in detail the indicator here:
 W
 To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes .

28. What makes up the indicaor?
 W
 To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes .

29. Is the indicator revised later or does it stand as it is reported?
 W
 To away with Highlights key words), but it makes .

30. What is the significance of the indicator concerning the economy's position?
Lead, Lag or coincident?
 Leading Indicator - Manufacturers' new orders for consumer
goods/materials .

31. How reliable is the indicator?
 W
 To away with Highlights key words), but it makes .

32. Where and when is the indicator published?
 W
 To away with key words), but it makes .

33. Describe the activity, according to the data your team gathered, of this
indicator.
 W
 To away with Highlights key words), but it makes .

34. By itself, what does the indicator tell your team about what the economy is
doing?
 W
 To away with Highlights key words), but it makes .

35. Composite Index Industrial Conditions %
 W
 To away with Highlights key words), but it makes .

36. Explain in detail the indicator here:
 To away with key words), but it makes .

37. What makes up the indicator?
 To away with Hightlights key words), but it makes .

38. Is the indicator revised later or does it stand
as it is reported?
 To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes.

39. How reliable is the indicator?
 To away with Highlights key words, but it makes.

40. Where and when is the indicator
published?
 To away with key words, but it makes.

41. Describe the activity, according to the data
your team gathered, of this indicator.
 To away with key words, but it makes.

42. By itself, what does the indicator tell your
team about what the economy is doing?
 To away with key words, but it makes.

43. What is the significance of the indicator concerning the
economy's position? Lead, Lag or coincident?
 To away with Hightlights key words), but
it makes.
 Leading Lagging or Coincident
 Which one: See following for details
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator]

44. WHOLE SALE SALES $
 [http://www2.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/awts/2010_awts_salesinv_table1.pdf ]
 Release Date: On or around the 9th of the month
 Release Time:10am Eastern Standard Time
 Coverage: Two months prior (report released six weeks after period end)
 Released By: U.S. [Census Bureau]
 Latest Release: [http://www.census.gov/mwts/www/currentwhl.html]
 Strengths:
 There is an Annual Benchmark Report for Wholesale Trade released every spring that includes more detailed information such as annual sales
estimates and gross margins for the industries that are sampled in the monthly report
 Provides a good snapshot of the "middle" of the supply chain for many industries - up the channel from manufacturing, but not yet retail.
 A good indicator of supply/demand imbalances
 Long time series (since 1946) available
 Data provided "raw" and with seasonal adjustment
 Weaknesses:
 Longer time lag than most
 Industry breakdowns not too specific
 The previously-released Durable Goods report will have already shed some light on wholesale results
 The Closing Line : Monthly Wholesale Trade Report is not potent enough to move the markets, but it is very useful when taken in context
with other industry-specific indicators to gauge sales and demand; it is also helpful in predicting quarterly [gross domestic product] (GDP)
figures.
Read more: [http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/wholesaletrade.asp#ixzz29GFzqXT7]
Read more:[ http://www.investopedia.com/university/releases/wholesaletrade.asp#ixzz29GFhuzBp]

45. 7000000
6000000
5000000
4000000
Series1
3000000
2000000
1000000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

46. Explain in detail the indicator here:
 To away with key words, but it makes.

47. What makes up the indicator?
 To away with key words, but it makes.

48. Is the indicator revised later or does it stand as it is
reported?
 To away with key words), but it makes.

49. What is the significance of the indicator concerning the
economy's position? Lead, Lag or coincident?
 To away with Hightlights key words), but
it makes.
 Leading Lagging or Coincident
 Which one: See following for details
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator]

50. How reliable is the indicaor?
 To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes.

51. Where and when is the indicaor published?
 To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes.

52. Describe the activity, according to the data your team
gathered, of this indicaor.
 To away with Hightlights key words, but it makes.

53. PROVE OR DISPROVE

54. Suggest how to make the economy grow HERE

55. Definition of Business Indicator can be seen here
[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Economic_indicator]

56. APA STYLE CITING RQUIRED
What did you use to gather info?
Which info or organizations did Info come form?
Include entire sight if on the web so we can find it.
Sight not used but read about the economy here:
[http://www.aicpa.org/InterestAreas/BusinessIndustryAndGovernment/NewsA
ndPublications/DownloadableDocuments/3Q_2012_EOS_Slides.pdf]
Helpful sights not used yet
[www.bea.gov ] [www.uscensus.gov]

57. Indicators
Paste these to the appropriate graphs
ISM Manufacturing Report on Business® PMI History 1948-2012
http://www.ism.ws/ISMReport/content.cfm?ItemNumber=10752&navItemNumber=129
61
U.S. Manufacturing Corporations
Seasonally Adjusted Quarterly After-Tax Profits (Billions of dollars)
2001-2012
http://www2.census.gov/econ/qfr/current/qfr_mg.pdf
Estimated Sales and Inventories of U.S. Merchant Wholesalers:
2002-2010
http://www2.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/awts/2010_awts_salesinv_table1.pdf
http://www2.census.gov/wholesale/pdf/awts/2010_awts_salesinv_nomsbo_ta
ble2.pdf

58. Paper Grade Sheet Paper: _________________ Student
___________________
Our graphs in Excel:
[https://skydrive.live.com/?id=C594EF5BE4ECE7A7!1443&cid=c5
94ef5be4ece7a7&#!/edit.aspx?cid=C594EF5BE4ECE7A7&resid=C5
94EF5BE4ECE7A7%211458&app=Excel ]

59. Capacity Use
[www.whitehouse.gov ]
2007
[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2007-12/pdf/ECONI-2007-12-Pg17.pdf]
2008
[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2008-12/pdf/ECONI-2008-12-Pg17.pdf]
2009
[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2009-12/pdf/ECONI-2009-12-Pg17.pdf]
2010
[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2010-12/pdf/ECONI-2010-12-Pg17.pdf]
2011
[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2011-12/pdf/ECONI-2011-12-Pg17.pdf]
2012
[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-2012-08/pdf/ECONI-2012-08-Pg17.pdf]
[http://www.gpo.gov/fdsys/pkg/ECONI-
2012-07/pdf/ECONI-2012-07-Pg17.pdf]

60. Comment Sheet

61. Michele Kirchaine kircml1@students.fscj.edu 300-5175
Liana greatdane836@yahoo.com 253-0014,
Lofton loftonm28@yahoo.com 210 6339,
Misty Mzoerner2011@yahoo.com 832 477 8507
http://www.usdebtclock.org/