1. TV Gets Social: A Look at the Data Behind the Screens Nina Stratt Lerner@nmincite August 20, 2011

3. Is buzz a leading indicator of TV ratings?

4. Does the relationship change during the season?

5. Where does impactful buzz take place?

7. Blogs & boards dominate the conversation Premiere Mid-Season Finale Buzz Volume

8. Buzz and ratings more correlated for younger demos Persons Females Males Correlation (r) High Low

9. A strong relationship exists for buzz & broadcast ratings TV Ratings Buzz Volume

10. Model Overview Buzz Data Source: 150 million+ social media sites N= 250 TV shows TV Ratings

11. When is buzz a leading indicator of TV ratings? Buzz is significant at p<=0.05. R2 ranges between 0.5 and 0.9

12. What influences premiere ratings? Positive Negative Variables are significant at p<=0.05 R2 =0.6

13. Four weeks prior to a show premiere… A16% increaseIN BUZZ VOLUME YIELDS A 1% increaseIN RATINGS

14. Ratings exponentially increase with buzz

15. Stronger relationship for P18-34 than P2+

16. How does genre change buzz’s relationship with premiere ratings? Buzz impact on Ratings Buzz is significant at p<=0.05 for all models. R2=0.4

17. Facebook adds explanatory power

18. What influences midseason ratings? After controlling for prior ratings, buzz is a significant explanatory variable of future ratings. Positive Negative Variables are significant at p<=0.05 R2 =0.98

19. Two weeks prior to a midseason episode… A22% increaseIN BUZZ VOLUME YIELDS A 1% increaseIN RATINGS

20. Remember…

21. Midseason relationship weaker

22. How does the impact of buzz vary throughout midseason? Buzz impact on Ratings month 1 month 2 month 3 month 4 month 5 month 6+ Time

23. What influences finale ratings? Across 220 shows analyzed, an 850 message increase in buzz has 40% more influence on determining finale ratings than a $1M dollar increase in ad spend. Positive Negative Variables are significant at p<=0.05 R2 =0.96

24. Two weeks prior to a show finale… A12% increaseIN BUZZ VOLUME YIELDS A 1% increaseIN RATINGS

25. Finale relationship the strongest

26. Where does impactful buzz take place?

27. Buzz impact remains consistent, regardless of ad spend Buzz Impact on Ratings

28. Looking Forward… Who could have the next big hit on TV? Where might the ratings soar? Online buzz can provide meaningful insight into future TV success.

29. Thank You! Nina Stratt Lerner Research Manager, Measurement Science nina.lerner@nielsen.com