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Introduction to Technical Analysis Karel De Bie Market Strategist BNP Paribas Fortis Global Markets FI Research. Blanmont, May 18, 2011
Introduction to Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
TA vs FA Michigan Confidence Indicator New Home Sales Durable Goods Orders Jobless Claims ISM Manufacturng Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemplyment Rate Trade Balance CPI P(fa) P(fa)>P=> buy P(fa)<P=> sell … FA A fundamental analyst only analyzes a handful of stocks or currencies Geopolitical Situation TA Basics
[object Object],TA Basics PRICE CHART
[object Object],[object Object],TA Definition PRICE CHART
Loss of information : per period just the close (no OHL), the H&L are important when drawing resistance/support lines The chart: line chart
The chart: bar chart Bar = 1 period, 1 min to 1 year
The chart: candle stick chart Candle = 1 period, 1 min to 1 year Advantage: Jap candlestick clearly visible
TA basic assumptions ,[object Object]
TA can be applied on… ,[object Object],[object Object]
TA advantages ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
TA Basics: The Trend ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Higher bottom Higher top
EUR/USD
Bund
downtrend uptrend downtrend
 
Trend, reversal & continuation patterns Reversal pattern Reversal pattern Continuation pattern
Introduction to Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Basic Formations: Trend Line Simplest tool within TA Connects the  lows  in an  uptrend Below every 2 bottoms, it is possible to fine such a line, but it needs 3 points to be a valid one = support line
[object Object],[object Object],Basic Formations: Trend Line = resistance line
Uptrend Support Line 3 & 4: buying opportunities 5: selling opportunity pull-back possible: previous support line becomes resistance
Downtrend Resistance Line ,[object Object]
AEX 1 december 2010: long or short?
AEX : another buy signal
 AEX : and now?
 
20.90 13.70 24.25 28.50 25.50
 
EUR/PLZ, weekly bars
EUR/USD, weekly bars chart buy sell
EUR/GBP, monthly bars
Basic Formations: Channel ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
(analogous for downtrend channel) Basic Formations: Channel Target Target Break-out Break-out Uptrend channel, break-out and target
Bund 125.40 124.00 122.05 fibo target
 
 
Channel
71.50 67.00 63.00 58.00
Reversal Formation: Head & Shoulders
 
 
S&P 500, daily bars
 
 
Reversal Formation: Double & Triple Top Similar for a double (or triple) bottom  No previous top in the double top space
Brent Oil
 
Dollar index
Reversal Formation: Falling/Rising wedge ,[object Object],[object Object]
 
 
(Key) Reversal day & Island reversal
 
S&P 500 daily bars bearish key reversal bullish key reversal bullish key reversal
EUR/USD, daily candlesticks Bullish key reversal day Bearish reversal day
Gold, weekly bars Bullish reversal weeks Bearish reversal week
Continuation Pattern: Flags ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1.4144 1.4225 1.4122 25 tics risk for 80 tics potential profit
Example
EUR/USD, 30min bars, Oct 5th 2010 long stop loss target 20 tics ris vs 100 tics potential profit
 
 
EUR/USD
 
Triangle: Reversal or Continuation Pattern
Triangle Formation ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
 
EUR/GBP, 60min bars
Driehoek
 
 
Bund voorbeelden
Bund voorbeelden
Introduction to Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
The Candlestick
Hammer & Hanging Man
Japanese Candlestick Theory
Engulfing Pattern
Japanese Candlestick Theory
 
EUR/USD, 60 min bars
Introduction to Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Technical   Indicators ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Moving Average ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Moving Average ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Moving Averages are the building blocks of the MACD ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
How could a MA be used? ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Long if closing price is above MA (a 25 period simple MA), short if  closing price is below MA. Bel20, weekly bars Example of using the MA
Long if closing price is above MA (a 25 period simple MA), short if  closing price is below MA. Bel20, daily bars Example of using the MA
Criticism on the MA  ,[object Object],[object Object]
100 days MA MA: great results when the market is in a clear up- or downtrend  Sideways trading: you lose money when trading the MA signals
100 days MA 50 days MA 20 days MA Which MA to use? Afterwards, it is always clear…
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],MACD: calculation
12 periods 26 periods the “0” level MACD: comparing 2 moving averages MACD = Exp MA of 12 periods – Exp MA of 26 periods MACD: the white line Crossing below zero: sell signal Crossing above zero: buy signal
Problem ,[object Object]
Bel20, monthly bars
Solution ,[object Object]
Bel20, monthly bars
So, how is the MACD nowadays used? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Positive and negative divergence   ,[object Object],[object Object]
Positive divergence: a rise is very probable   Positive divergence: announces a rise
Positive divergence: a rise is very probable Positive divergence: announces a rise
 
Negative divergence: a decline is very probable   Negative divergence: announces a decline
Negative divergence: a decline is very probable Negative divergence: announces a decline
 
Combining timeframes ,[object Object],[object Object]
Daily MACD WEEKLY MACD EUR/USD, daily bars
Bel20, monthly bars
Donc, comment utiliser le MACD? ,[object Object],[object Object]
Mais, on peut encore faire mieux…  ,[object Object],[object Object]
Divergence positive: hausse très probable  Divergence positive: annonce une hausse
Divergence positive: hausse très probable  Divergence positive: annonce une hausse
Divergence negative: baisse très probable  Divergence negative: annonce une baisse
Divergence negative: baisse très probable  Divergence negative: annonce une baisse
 
Introduction to Technical Analysis ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
1170-1250 Fibonacci
Fibonacci
[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Fibonacci: 0.618 & 0.382
Fibonacci: 1 + 0.618 => golden spiral
Fibonacci: universal ratio
Fibonacci: universal ratio
Fibonacci in the finacial markets
Fibonacci retracements are calculated relative to a previous move. Fibonacci retracements
 
S&P 500
BEL 20
Fibonacci extensions A A*1.618 B B*1.618 C C*1.618
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 
 

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Introduction to Technical Analysis

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &amp;quot;Preneed&amp;quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis&apos; intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
  2. Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &amp;quot;Preneed&amp;quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis&apos; intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
  3. Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &amp;quot;Preneed&amp;quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis&apos; intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
  4. Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &amp;quot;Preneed&amp;quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis&apos; intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.
  5. Market capitalization has increased from EUR 2.6 billion in 1990 to EUR 20 billion at 30 June 2003. Fortis ranks among the 20 largest financial institutions in Europe. First bank in Belgium, fourth bank in the Netherlands. First insurer in the Benelux countries, second insurer via intermediaries in the Netherlands. In the United States Fortis has become number 2 in the field of &amp;quot;Preneed&amp;quot;, in other words funeral insurance. The acquisition of the voluntary dental insurance division of Protective Life in 2001 makes Fortis number one in the United States in this specific market. Fortis is very successful in the bancassurance market. Bancassurance is the sale of insurance products via the banking channel and banking products via the insurance channel. The joint venture of Maybank in 2001 underscores Fortis&apos; intention to further expand its expertise in the field of bancassurance in Asia.