New Energy For New Weather

SOLAR ENERGY FOCUS CONFERENCE
December 4, 2009

NEW ENERGY FOR
NEW WEATHER

John Byrne

Center for Energy and Environmental Policy

Climbing Conventional Energy Prices:
U.S. Residential Prices (Nominal)
300%

275%
U.S. Energy Price Increases

NG

250% Gasoline
Heating Oil
225% Electricity

200%

175%

150%

125%

Yr 2000
Price
75%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020

Source: U.S. EIA database and Annual Energy Outlook (2009)


Energy Expenditures as % of US GDP
9.8% of GDP in 2008
Highest in 25 yrs

Source: Data used to prepare EIA Annual Energy Outlook,
March 2009


February 23, 2002

March 5, 2002
January 31, 2002

World GHG Emissions Reduction Scenario
60% Reduction from World 1990 Levels by 2050
1990 2025 2050
+37% 25.0 16.5 14.9
Ky
1990 Annex I Benchmark

+20% oto Annex I

World CO2e Per Capita
World CO2e Per Capita
20.0 13.2 11.9
1990 Non-Annex I
Non-Annex
-20%
-20% 15.0 10.0 8.9

-40%
-40% 10.0 6.7 6.0
-60%
-60%
5.0 3.3 2.2
-80%
-80% 3.3 2.2 2.0
-100%
-100% 0.0 0.0 0.0

1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100
Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.” In Urban Energy Transition:
Footprint.”
Source: Based on John Byrne et al (2008) Undoing Atmospheric Harm: Civil Action to Shrink the Carbon Footprint.” In Urban Energy Transition:
From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. Droege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27-54. See also Byrne et al (2004) “Reclaiming the atmospheric
27-
From Fossil Fuels to Renewable Power. P. Droege ed. Oxford, UK: Elsevier. Pp. 27-54. See also Byrne et al (2004) “Reclaiming the atmospheric
commons: Beyond Kyoto.” In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science
Kyoto.”
commons: Beyond Kyoto.” In V.I. Grover (ed.), Climate Change: Perspectives Five Years After Kyoto. Chapter 21. Plymouth, UK: Science
Publishers, Inc.
Publishers, Inc.


Estimates of the Technical Potential of
3,500
Renewable Energy Resources
Johansson et al (2004), WEC (2000)
3,000 de Vries (2007)

2,500 50

Exajoules
40
Exajoules

30
2,000 20
10
0
1,500
Hydropower Ocean

1,000

500

0
Solar Wind Geothermal Biomass
* Assumes current technology conversion efficiencies.


EXPERIENCE CURVES FOR SELECTED
RENEWABLE ELECTRIC POWER TECHNOLOGIES
100,000 $/kW

PV
-0.331
y = 5421.5x
LR=21%
10,000

CSP
-0.145
y = 4661.5x
LR=10%
1,000
Wind
y = 2330.3x-0.127
LR=8%

100
0.0 0.1 1.0 10.0 100.0
Cumulative Installation (GW)
Source: Byrne et al. [2009] A Review of Solar Energy Technology, Markets and Policy. Prepared
for the Climate Change & Clean Energy Development Research Group, World Bank


State Renewable Portfolio Standards in the U.S.
17
RE b y 20
new

31
WA: 15% MN: 25% by 2020 10%

20
ME:
by 2020 MT: 10%

by
NH: 23% by 2025

4%
OR: 25% by 2015 MA: 15% by 2020

:2
by 2025

NY
CT: 10% by 2010
NV: IL: PA: 18% by 2020
20% 25% NJ: 23% by 2021; 2% PV
CO:
by by Delaware: 20% by 2019; 2% PV
20% KS: 20%
0% 2015 2025 Wash DC: 11% by 2022
:2 0 by 2020 by 2020
CA 201 AZ: NC: 12.5% by 2021
by 15% NM:
by 10% by 34 states and Wash DC
2025 2011 have passed legislation
TX: 3%
by 2009
5 states with pending
legislation

HI: 20% by 2020 29 states have completed
Climate Change Action Plans
Sources: CEEP Survey, 2009;
http://yosemite.epa.gov/oar/globalwarming.nsf/
DSIRE, 2009
content/ActionsStateActionPlans.html

Renewables – Approaching Parity
LCOE with US Incentives LCOE w/o Incentives
Levelized Cost per kWh (US cents) 40
Utility Scale Distributed Energy
35 (competes in (competes in
Wholesale Market) Retail Market)
30
25
Mid-Atlantic Retail
20 Electricity Price
15
10
5
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So

So
Data Source: Lazard 2008-09; CEEP (forthcoming)


MUSH: Municipalities (state/local government facilities); Universities; Schools; Hospitals

POLICY OPTIONS TO SERVE 25% OF
1800 US ELECTRICITY DEMAND FROM PV

1600 25% in 2055
25% in 2050 @ 21¢ / kWh
1400 @ 19.5¢ / kWh (levelized)
25% in 2045
(levelized)
1200 @ 18¢ / kWh
(levelized)
1000
TWh

25% in 2035 ‘Green Premium’ of 25 cents/kWh
in 2010 & 15 cents/kWh in 2015
800 @ 15¢ / kWh
(levelized) Very Efficient PV Modules (42%)
600 More Efficient PV Modules (28%)
25% in 2025 CO2 price of $50/ton
400 @ 11¢ / kWh
CO2 price of $25/ton
(levelized)
200 BAU

0
2005 2015 2025 2035 2045 2055 2065
Source: John Byrne & Lado Kurdgelashvili, (forthcoming) “The Impact of Policy on PV Industry Growth”
In A. Luque & S. Hegedus (eds.) Handbook of Photovoltaic Science and Engineering 2nd ed. (NY: Wiley)


The Sustainable Energy Utility
http://www.seu-de.org/
The SEU is a new utility serving the interests of sustainability. It partners with existing utilities
while building and investing in a sustainable energy infrastructure.

• The SEU was fist established by the State of Delaware on June 28, 2007 to:
- Promote, provide and invest in energy efficiency services – Legislated Target: 30% Reduction in energy use by 2020
- Promote, provide and invest in increased deployment of Distributed Renewable Generation – Legislated Target: 10-20%
of Electricity Sales from Distributed Renewables by 2020

• The SEU exists as a public/private partnership combining the best of both worlds
- SEU is organized as a non-profit tax-exempt 501(c)(3) organization
- Day to day operations are conducted by for-profit companies, non-profits & others specializing in the energy sector
- Eliminates silos and provides solutions throughout the energy spectrum
Old Model New Model
Affordable
Energy
Distributed
Renewables
Less Electricity
Natural
Natural Gasoline/
Gasoline/
Electricity
Electricity Transport
Transport Water
Water Education
Education
Gas
Gas Diesel
Diesel

Green
Less
Buildings/
Green
SEU Transportation
Energy
Neighborhoods

Less Heating Fuel
Water/
Materials
Conservation
14 Education

• ARRA FUNDS

• RGGI AUCTION PROCEEDS

• TAX BENEFITS/ASSESSMENTS

• GREEN BOND AUTHORITY

• PUBLIC BENEFITS CHARGES

• REC & SREC AGGREGATOR

SEU Solar Share Program
By creating a Solar Share program, the SEU can efficiently maximize federal tax benefits,
providing participants with lower cost renewable power on a platform that can include
distributed & central location formats

Equity
Investors
(recruited by SEU)

100% Ownership
of Systems

Incentives &
SOLAR SHARE CO
SEU SREC Floor Pricing (Special Purpose Entity)

$$ Energy & SREC Payments

Wires
Solar MWH
Utility
$$ Utility Bill

Participants
16

Sustainable Communities Program

Tax / Equity
$$ to Investors
Revolving Fund
Investment
Capital Return

Sustainable
Incentives &
SEU Communities Co
Taxable (Special Purpose Entity)
Bond
Financing
$$ Payment

ESCO /
Green
RESCO / NegaWH
MWH
Wires Utility

$$ Fees

Participants
(tax-exempt & taxable)

17

U
D
US Department of Energy

CENTER OF EXCELLENCE

SOLAR ELECTRIC POWER

The City of Dover, Delmarva Power and Delaware’s
Sustainable Energy Utility are finalizing an agreement to
construct a 10MW solar power plant on the city’s Garrison
Oak Technology Park, to be called the Dover SUN Park.

Top ten states by
Per capita installed PV capacity

Cumulative Installed PV
TOP TEN Capacity per person
(WDC/person in 2008)
1. DELAWARE*
California 14.6
22.2
2. Nevada
California 14.6
14.2
3. Hawaii
Nevada 14.2
10.6
4. New Jersey
Hawaii 10.6
8.1
5. Colorado
New Jersey 8.1
7.7
6. Arizona
Colorado 7.7
4.3
7. Arizona
Connecticut 4.3
2.5
8. Delaware
Connecticut 2.5
2.2
9. Oregon 2.1
10. Vermont 1.8
US Average 2.7

Data Source: Interstate Renewable Energy Council (IREC)
2008. U.S. Solar Market Trends.
*Will be 22 WDC/person after 10 MW of PV are installed by the
City of Dover and 6 MW of PV by the University of Delaware

Green Jobs: The Sustainable Energy Advantage
Permanent Jobs Created per Million US$ Invested
COAL PLANTS 4
ENERGY EFFICIENCY & CONSERVATION 12-15

Smart/Green Buildings 14.7

Air Sealing/Insulation 12.0

RENEWABLE ENERGY 10-19
Solar Thermal 19.0

Solar Electric (PV) 15.7

Wind 11.9

Geothermal 10.5
Sources: Erhardt-Martinez & Laitner, The Size of the U.S. Energy Efficiency Market. ACEEE. 2008. American Solar Energy Society (ASES).
Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency: Economic Drivers for the 21st Century. 2007.Singh & Fehrs, The Work that Goes into Renewable
Energy. REPP. 2001.

PV Potential in Seoul
197 MW
67 MW 296 GWh (2%)
101 GWh (1%) Total Available
Rooftop Real Estate: 130.8 million m2
134 MW
201 GWh (2%) 885 MW
1,330 GWh 2005 City
(13%) Electricity Use: 40.5 TWh

900 MW 2005 City
1,354 GWh Peak Demand: 18.8 GW
(14%)
4,494 MW
6,759 GWh Solar Potential
(68%) Electricity Supply: 10.0 TWh (25%)

Solar Potential
Peak Shaving: 6.7 GW (36%)

Residential Educational
Assumptions: 40% of rooftop area can be used to collect solar Commercial Industrial
energy; PV module efficiency = 14%; Inverter efficiency: 95%
Sources: Columbia University, 2006; SEIA website. Public Other

Delaware’s SEU Cited as a National Model

Testimony of John D. Podesta before
Vice President Biden's Middle Class Task Force

Philadelphia February 27, 2009

What can we do today

In Delaware, a “Sustainable Energy Utility” can
meet energy needs, not by building new power
plants but by weatherizing homes [and installing
solar panels]…creating a market…for the
verifiable energy savings they produce.
http://www.seu-de.org/

http://ceep.udel.edu/

Retreating Sea Ice

2003
1973

1992 2002 2005

Source: ACIA, 2004 and CIRES, 2005

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