Presentatie van 19-02-2014 over het hoofdstuk 'Decision-making models, decision support, and problem solving' uit het boek Human Factors Fundamentals van Lehto et al. uit 2012, en de paper 'Flightdeck and Air Traffic Control Collaboration and Evaluation' van Sharples et al. uit 2012.

1. Decision-making models, decision
support, and problem solving
Mark R. Lehto, Fiona Fui-Hoon Nah, Ji Soo Yi
in Human Factors Fundamentals (2012)
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken

2. Integrative model of decision making
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
Single DM
Time pressure
Multiple stages
Risk attitudes
Knowledge
Decision tools
Multiple DMs
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@MartinSpecken

3. Categories of decision making (1/5)
(Sometimes overlapping)
1. Group
2. Dynamic
3. Routine
4. Conflict
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4. Categories of decision making (2/5)
• Debate
• Bargain
• Vote
Group decision making
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5. Categories of decision making (3/5)
• Decision 1: Take medical test
• Decision 2: What to do with the result?
Dynamic decision making
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6. Categories of decision making (4/5)
Routine decision making
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7. Categories of decision making (5/5)
Various forms of conflict
must be resolved before
an alternative action can
be chosen.
Conflict-driven decision making
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@MartinSpecken

8. Decision making models (1/3)
1. Normative
2. Behavioral
3. Naturalistic
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@MartinSpecken

9. Normative decision models (1/6)
Classic decision theory with 4 elements:
• Potential actions to choose between [A]
• Events/world states [E]
• Probabilities [P] from combination [A] &[E]
• Consequences [C] from combination [A]&[E]
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@MartinSpecken

10. Normative decision models (2/6)
1. Dominance
2. Maximizing expected value
3. Subjective expected utility theory
4. Multiattribute utility theory
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11. Normative decision models (3/6)
Occurs between two alternative
actions, Aiand Aj, when:
Action Ai is at least as good as Aj
– for all events E
AND
– for at least one event Ek
then Ai is preferred to Aj
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Dominance
@MartinSpecken

12. Normative decision models (4/6)
Select the alternative with the greatest expected value.
• 3 kittens are stuck in trees
• Decision:
– Save 3 kittens is 3 times
as good as saving 1 kitten.
• Choises:
– 100% chance to save 1 kitten
Expected value = 1 * 1 = 1
– 50% chance to save all 3 kittens + 50% to save 0 kittens
Expected value = ( 3 * 0,5 + 0 * 0,5 ) = 1,5
Maximizing Expected Value
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13. Normative decision models (5/6)
Basic axioms (Dutch: grondstelling) of rational choise:
• If A > B and B > C , then A > C
• People’s preferences can conflict with the axioms.
• Movement toward less restrictive standards.
Subjective Expected Utility Theory
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@MartinSpecken

14. Normative decision models (6/6)
Consider attractiveness of
• Economic benifits
• Social benefits
• Environmental benefits
Multiattribute Utility Theory
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@MartinSpecken

15. Decision making models (2/3)
1. Normative
2. Behavioral
3. Naturalistic
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16. Behavioral decision models (1/5)
Normative decision models don’t always work
when compared to human behavior.
1. Statistical estimation and inference
2. Preference and choise
3. Adaptive decision behavior
4. Behavior economics
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17. Behavior decision models (2/5)
1960s: People behave as ’intuïtive statisticians’.
Many examples of findings in the paper. A selection:
• DMs tend to ignore the reliability of the evidence.
• DMs tend to seek out confirming evidence rather
than disconfirming evidence.
• DMs are overconfident in their predictions.
Statistical estimation and inference
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@MartinSpecken

18. Behavior decision models (3/5)
Research: observing human preference and
choise and comparing it with the SEU theory
People’s preferences change
when the outcomes are
framed in terms of costs,
as opposed to benifits.
Preference and choise
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@MartinSpecken

19. Behavior decision models (4/5)
Individual
DM uses
different
strategies
in different
situations.
Adaptive decision behavior
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@MartinSpecken

20. Behavior decision models (5/5)
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Behavior economics
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21. Decision making models (3/3)
1. Normative
2. Behavioral
3. Naturalistic
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22. Naturalistic decision models (1/5)
In dynamic and realistic environment, actions by
decision maker are made sequentially in time.
1. Levels of task performance
2. Recognition-primed decision making
3. Dominance structuring
4. Explanation-based decision making
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23. Naturalistic decision models (2/5)
Most decisions are made on a routine basis.
The levels of performance tasks are based on:
•
•
•
•
Skills
Rules
Knowledge
Judgement
Levels of task performance
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24. Naturalistic decision models (3/5)
80% of firefighters make
decisions based on some
sort of situation
recognition
Recognition-primed decision making
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25. Naturalistic decision models (4/5)
Nonroutine decisions
involve sequence of:
1. Screen alternatives.
2. Select alternative.
3. Check dominance of selection to
other alternatives.
4. No dominance? Restructure info
to force dominance.
Dominance structuring
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@MartinSpecken

26. Naturalistic decision models (5/5)
Jurors seem to organize massive amount of data
in terms of stories describing cause and intent.
Explanation-based decision making
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@MartinSpecken

27. Group decision making (1/5)
1. Ethics and social norms
2. Group processes
3. Group performance and biasses
4. Prescriptive approaches
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@MartinSpecken

28. Group decision making (2/5)
Four dilemma’s of right versus right (Kidder, 1995)
1. Truth versus Loyalty
2. Individual versus Community
3. Short term versus Long term
4. Justice versus Mercy
Ethics and social norms
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@MartinSpecken

29. Group decision making (3/5)
Tuckman (1965):
1. Forming (initial orientation)
2. Storming (conflict)
3. Norming (develop cohesion, express opinions)
4. Performing (obtain solutions)
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Group processes
@MartinSpecken

30. Group decision making (4/5)
Strong opposition
to usefull products
Group performance and biasses
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@MartinSpecken

31. Group decision making (5/5)
Prescriptive approaches
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@MartinSpecken

32. Decision support and problem solving (1/5)
1. Decision analysis
2. Individual decision support
3. Group and organizational decision support
4. Problem solving
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@MartinSpecken

33. Decision support and problem solving (2/5)
A = Action
E = Event
P = Probability
C = Consequenses
P1
E1
A1
E2
1 - P1
P2
A2
E1
E2
1 – P2
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Decision analysis
C11
C12
C21
C22
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34. Decision support and problem solving (3/5)
Individual decision support
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35. Decision support and problem solving (4/5)
Negotiation Support Systems assist people in activities
that are competitive of involve conflicts of interest.
Group and organizational decision
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36. Decision support and problem solving (5/5)
Psychologist work together
with computer scientist to
understand the human mind
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Problem solving
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37. Book Malcolm Cook et al. (2007)
http://tinyurl.com/boekdecisionmaking
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38. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (1/5)
http://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/17499573
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@MartinSpecken

39. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (2/5)
Key components in airspace systems:
• Air traffic controllers
• Airline management
• Aircraft pilots
• Aircraft systems
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@MartinSpecken

40. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (3/5)
Different goals:
• Air traffic controllers
safety of all the aircrafts in the system
• Airline management
expediency &efficiency (profit)
• Aircraft pilots
safety &expediency of aircraft (local)
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@MartinSpecken

41. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (4/5)
Different available information:
• Air traffic controllers
more: global traffic patterns
less: global weather
• Airline management
less: traffic patterns
more: current weather
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@MartinSpecken

42. Paper Sarah Sharples et al. (2007) (5/5)
Increase of air traffic: How can extra aircrafts
operate economically, efficiently and safe?
• Freeflight
some transfer of responsibility from air traffic
controller to pilot for determining flight paths
• Datalink
provide electronic exchange of information between
pilots and air traffic controllers
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@MartinSpecken

43. Finally
The integrative model of
decision making shows
how the various approaches
fit together as a whole.
#CognitiveEngineering
@MartinSpecken