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                                                                      Assessing Competitiveness
                                                                                                                                   9
                                                                                 Guide to Strategic Frameworks




                                                                                                                                                ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS
         In chapter 9, the focus is on four
         strategic frameworks widely used by
         LED practitioners and the 15 refer-
         ence cities discussed in this guide.
         These are:                                                These four frameworks are introduced in the following sections, with
                                                                   guidance on the analytical questions each framework helps cities
         Ⅲ SWOT analysis                                            address, along with practical information on how each framework can
         Ⅲ Problem analysis
                                                                    be used, the key inputs required, tips and best practice, and informa-
                                                                    tion on useful sources of additional information.
         Ⅲ Competitive advantage analysis                              A brief overview of other useful frameworks is presented in table 9.1.   111

         Ⅲ Scenario planning
                                                                   Although developed for use in various strategic planning contexts,
                                                                   including regional economic development and industry and firm-level
                                                                  strategies, these frameworks are less widely used than SWOT analysis,
                                                                  problem analysis, competitive advantage analysis, and scenario planning.


                                                                SWOT Analysis
                                                               What Issues Are Addressed by SWOT Analysis?
                                                              The following questions can be addressed by a SWOT analysis:

                                                           Ⅲ What are the overall strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats faced
                                                             by the city?
                                                        Ⅲ What are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats faced by the city
                                                          regarding a particular issue (such as employment) or in a particular area of eco-
                                                          nomic development (such as economic structure)?


                                                How Is the SWOT Analysis Framework Used?

                                         The SWOT is the most popular strategic framework used to assess the local economy. It
                                      requires limited quantitative/statistical data input, is relatively easy to understand and deploy, and
                                   lends itself well to participatory approaches.
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                        CASE STUDY
                                     SWOT Analysis—IVANO-FRANKIVSK (Ukraine)
                                     Ivano-Frankivsk used SWOT analysis as its principle strategy development
                                     framework in 2005. The SWOT analysis was conducted by subcommittees
                                     of a Strategy Development Committee representing the city’s political,
                                     business, and community interests. These stakeholders shared their per-
                                     spectives of the city’s economic environment and commented on the city’s
                                     strengths and weaknesses in a brainstorming session facilitated by LED
                                     experts with extensive experience in conducting participatory processes.

                                     The committee’s initial ideas were summarised and categorised, and then
                                     discussed at length in order to set priorities and agree on which issues
   LED RESOURCE GUIDE




                                     should feed into the strategic plan. Conducting the SWOT analysis in a par-
                                     ticipatory forum of this type is considered highly effective. It provided an
                                     opportunity for key stakeholders and community leaders to be directly




                                                                                                                                                                                                         Topham Picture Point/Top Foto
                                     engaged in the strategy development process and to contribute their own
                                     ideas. The SWOT framework was also seen as a good fit for the five- to six-
                                     month time schedule allotted for the strategic planning process.
                                                                                                                                                     Hydropower dam in Ukraine
   112

                        SWOT analysis involves analysing both internal and exter-
                        nal factors that affect the city, and identifies unique features                                        Tips
                        of the city that set it apart from other cities and could serve                                        Carefully analyse each factor To maximise the value of a SWOT exer-
                        as a major selling point. The SWOT approach involves                                                   cise, it is important to consider what each of the factors means and
                        organising key data and information about the city across                                              determine which are most likely to have the greatest impact on the
                        four categories: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and                                             local economy.
                        threats, as shown in figure 9.1.
                           Although SWOT is sometimes used for individual-level                                                Place the city in a dynamic context. The SWOT framework can be sup-
                        LED indicators (sectoral structure and specialisation, for                                             ported with other tools (such as PEST analysis). This helps city admin-
                                                                                                                               istrators to consider the factors that might erode or support identified
                                                                                                                               strengths and opportunities in the future.
                              F I G U R E 9 . 1 SWOT Analysis Framework
                                                                                                                               Place the city in a comparative context. Think about the strengths and
                                                        STRENGTHS                                WEAKNESSES
                                       •   Location near key ports                 • Lack of strong base of business service   weaknesses of the city when compared with other cities in the region,
                          INTERNAL




                                       •   Major universities and research centres   firms                                     or similar cities that might compete to attract investment. Identify
                                       •   High quality of life                    • Declining manufacturing base
                                       •   Highly educated population              • High cost of property
                                                                                                                               opportunities that exist to develop differentiated strategies based on
                                       •   Substantial foreign investment                                                      the city’s unique strengths.
                                                    OPPORTUNITIES                                    THREATS
                                       • Investments in new technology              • Continuing brain drain of recent         Involve a range of stakeholders. The SWOT framework is most useful
                          EXTERNAL




                                         incubators                                   graduates
                                       • Taking advantage of global                 • Impact of security concerns on port      when part of a participatory process where synergies among stake-
                                         outsourcing trends                           logistics sector and free trade zone     holders and opportunities can be maximized.
                                       • Establishment of free trade zone             plans
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             Further Information
             For templates for the use of SWOT in an LED context, see: http://www.worldbank.org/urban/local/frameworkkit/pages/module-2-
             index.htm.

             For an introduction to SWOT analysis and a checklist of topics included in a SWOT analysis of the local economy, see the International
             Labour Organisation’s toolkit: Local Economic Development Operational Guidelines in Post-Crisis Situations at: http://www.ilo.org/dyn/
             empent/empent.Portal?p_prog=L&p_subprog=&p_category=TOOLS.

             SWOT analysis is heavily used in a business context, and there are many useful guides on the use of this framework as well as templates.
             For example:




                                                                                                                                                          ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS
                  ● For a discussion of the use of SWOT analysis in a business context, see: http://www.themanager.org/Models/SWOT.htm.
                  ● For a brief discussion of (and free template for SWOT analysis in a business context), see: http://www.businessballs.com/swot-
                    analysisfreetemplate.htm or http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_05.htm.




                                                                                       example), it is most commonly used to summarise the posi-
           Tips                                                                        tion of the local economy overall. In particular, SWOT
                                                                                                                                                          113
           Involve an experienced facilitator. One of the challenges of problem        frameworks are commonly used to facilitate participatory
           structuring is that it often highlights different perspectives and raises   workshops aimed at agreeing on the status quo of the local
           issues of political conflict among stakeholders. Managing this process       economy. SWOT is a concept that can be understood by
           in a workshop or other participatory format can be a significant chal-       most stakeholders, therefore, it is a useful framework to build
           lenge—if possible, make use of an experienced facilitator                   consensus in the strategy development process. A SWOT
                                                                                       analysis is often a valuable input into identifying and priori-
           Conduct the analysis over several sessions. Effective use of the problem
                                                                                       tising strategic priorities, local economy development initia-
           analysis framework (mapping links in the problem tree, for example)
                                                                                       tives, and projects.
           requires time for contemplation and often additional research. A
           single-day workshop may not provide the time required to undertake
           problem analysis.
                                                                                       What Key Inputs Are Required for SWOT Analysis?
           Test with objective analysis. Test the issues raised by participants        An effective SWOT analysis can be completed with limited
           against quantitative and qualitative information obtained in surveys        quantitative/statistical data input. But when these data are
           by using other tools and analytical frameworks that can support those
                                                                                       not available, practitioners rely on qualitative input. This
           data. Together, the subjective and more objective data sets should
                                                                                       input is sometimes obtained by assembling a panel of experts
           inform the assessment and provide a more complete picture.
                                                                                       with specific knowledge of different sectors and aspects of the
           Combine with other frameworks. Although problem analysis frame-             economy. Alternatively, a SWOT analysis can be undertaken
           works are valuable for identifying strategic issues to be addressed,        in a larger participatory forum where individual input is
           they tend to overlook some critical aspects of the local economy            requested. It is recommended that such an event be limited
           assessment (areas of opportunity, identification of sources of competi-      to about 60 people to enable all to participate. In these cases,
           tive advantage, for example). Therefore, strategies based on problem        the SWOT analysis requires a trained facilitator.
           analysis frameworks alone risk being too narrow.                               Ideally, SWOT analysis includes comparative data from
                                                                                       other cities in the country or comparable international
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                        benchmarks. This can help confirm the accuracy of identi-                            problem trees, objective trees, and various forms of needs
                        fied strengths and weaknesses. Overall, SWOT analysis                                analysis.
                        requires low resource intensity.                                                       The framework usually involves four basic steps:

                                                                                                            1. Identify a long list of problems and issues (in most cases,
                        Problem Analysis
                                                                                                               unsatisfactory situations are described, and a set of symp-
                        What Issues Are Addressed by Problem Analysis?                                         toms emerge).
                                                                                                            2. Identify one or more core problems that are at the root of
                        The following questions can be addressed by a problem
                                                                                                               the others (the idea is to attack the core problems rather
                        analysis:
                                                                                                               than the symptoms).
                                                                                                            3. Determine which problems are causes and which are
                        Ⅲ What are the main issues facing the local economy?
                                                                                                               effects.
                        Ⅲ How are these issues related to each other and to the
   LED RESOURCE GUIDE




                                                                                                            4. Arrange the issues in a hierarchy of causes and effects.
                          external environment?
                        Ⅲ Which issues are of higher or lower priority?
                                                                                                            A problem tree is often developed from this information,
                                                                                                            which enables practitioners to visually illustrate symptoms,
                        How Is the Problem Analysis Framework Used?                                         core problems, and interrelationships. An example is shown
                                                                                                            in figure 9.2.
                        Problem analysis is a framework used to identify core issues
   114                  to be addressed in the strategic planning process. Problem
                        in this context does not necessarily indicate weaknesses or                         What Key Inputs Are Required for Problem Analysis?
                        concerns but can equally refer to opportunities and chal-                           A problem analysis does not require any detailed, sophisti-
                        lenges—essentially it is about identifying issues that should                       cated assessment of quantitative data. Instead, this frame-
                        be addressed in the city strategy. Problem analysis is most                         work draws on qualitative information and perceptions from
                        commonly used to analyse qualitative information about the                          stakeholders. The main requirements for using this frame-
                        local economy that has been collected through participa-                            work are:
                        tory processes (see participatory issues analysis on page 71).
                        The various frameworks for problem analysis include                                 Ⅲ A trained and experienced facilitator to lead the process.




                        CASE STUDY
                            Problem Analysis—SAN FERNANDO (Philippines)
                            In 2001, San Fernando used the problem tree as one of two main strategic       Overall, the city found problem tree analysis somewhat difficult to use com-
                            frameworks (along with SWOT analysis) to assess its local economy and          pared to SWOT analysis. Stakeholders were generally able to identify prob-
                            develop a CDS. The problem tree framework was an analytical output of a        lems effectively, but separating symptoms from the core problems was
                            series of workshops that used participatory issues identification tools to      more difficult. Similarly, mapping the relationships between problems
                            capture perceived issues facing the local economy.                             often required substantial resources and effective facilitation. However, the
                                                                                                           framework was found to be highly valuable in showing linkages between
                            After all relevant issues were identified, the problem tree framework was       key issues and in defining the city’ strategic priorities.
                            used in participatory workshops in an effort to trace problems back to a set
                            of core issues and to map causes and effects.
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             F I G U R E 9 . 2 A Problem Tree Showing Challenges
             Facing a CDS in the Philippines                                                          Further Information
                                                                                                      For an introduction to problem tree analysis and related
                                  UNEMPLOYMENT                                                        documents from the United Nations Food and Agriculture
                                                                                                      Organisation, see: http://www.comminit.com/planning-
                                                                                                      models/pmodels/planningmodels-126.html.
            Lack of livelihood                         LACK OF INVESTORS
                                                                                                      For basic information and an example of a problem tree
                                                                                                      analysis derived from the context of urban upgrading from
             Lack of training            Lack of              Lack of             Lack of
                                      land resources     skilled workers      infrastructure          GTZ and NORAD, see: http://web.mit.edu/urbanupgrading/




                                                                                                                                                                      ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS
                                                                                                      upgrading/issues-tools/tools/problem-tree.html.
                                                        Lack of education
                                                                                                      For a discussion of and guidelines on the use of problem tree
                                                                                                      analysis, see the Strategy Survival Guide prepared by the
         (Source: Derived from the Philippines CDS toolkit, available online at: www.cdsea.org/
                                                                                                      Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit (U.K.) at: http://www.
         db/CDSContent.asp?ID=11.)
                                                                                                      cabinetoffice.gov.uk/strategy/survivalguide/index.asp.

                                                                                                      For an introduction to problem tree analysis and other
                                                                                                      materials from the Overseas Development Institute, see:
                                                                                                      http://www.odi.org.uk/Rapid/Tools/Toolkits/Policy_
                                                                                                      Impact/Index.html.
             Tips
                                                                                                                                                                      115
             Involve an experienced facilitator. One of the challenges of problem
             structuring is that it often highlights different perspectives and raises
             issues of political conflict among stakeholders. Managing this process
             in a workshop or other participatory format can be a significant chal-                Ⅲ Participants with a good knowledge of the local economy.
             lenge, though an experienced facilitator can help guide the process.                 Ⅲ Facilities to host participatory processes such as seminars

             Conduct the analysis over several sessions. Effective use of the problem                and workshops.
             analysis framework (mapping links in the problem tree, for example)
             requires time for contemplation and often additional research. A                     Problem analysis does not require econometric expertise or
             single-day workshop may not provide the time required to undertake                   in-depth experience using similar frameworks. Therefore,
             problem analysis.                                                                    the overall resource requirements of this tool are relatively
                                                                                                  low.
             Test with objective analysis. Test the issues raised by participants
             against quantitative and qualitative information obtained in surveys
             by using other tools and analytical frameworks that can support those                Competitive Advantage Analysis
             data. Together, the subjective and more objective data sets should
             inform the assessment and provide a more complete picture.                           What Issues Are Addressed by Competitive Advantage Analysis?
             Combine with other frameworks. Although problem analysis frame-                      The following questions can be addressed by competitive
             works are valuable for identifying strategic issues to be addressed,                 advantage analysis:
             they tend to overlook some critical aspects of the local economy
             assessment (areas of opportunity, identification of sources of competi-               Ⅲ How competitive is the local economy?
             tive advantage, for example). Therefore, strategies based on problem                 Ⅲ How well is the local economy performing relative to a
             analysis frameworks alone risk being reactionary.                                       competing economy (based on employment, exports, gov-
                                                                                                     ernment efficiency, GDP, innovation, and productivity)?
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                        CASE STUDIES
                         Competitive Advantage Analysis
                         ADEN (Yemen)                                                                                             DURBAN (South Africa)
                         The Aden Competitiveness Assessment, one of the foundation studies for the                               The city of Durban regularly used both the Porter’s Diamond framework and
                         Aden CDS, framed competitiveness around the Porter’s Diamond frame-                                      the related Five Forces as strategic frameworks in assessing competitive-
                         work. The primary data input to the analysis came from the results of the                                ness in Durban, especially in analysing specific sectors and clusters in the
                         city’s competitiveness survey, which was designed around the four main                                   city. Durban has found these frameworks to be valuable in engaging the
                         components of the Diamond framework, as were the discussions held in the                                 private sector on competitiveness issues, because they provide an accessi-
                         later competitiveness seminar. Aden officials found this framework easy to                                ble yet rigorous approach that is more in line with private sector thinking
                         use because it did not require complex analytical methods. The process was                               than some of the more static frameworks, such as SWOT analysis.
                         also easily understood by a range of stakeholders, so it was easily adapted
   LED RESOURCE GUIDE




                         in participatory exercises.




                                                                          Workers in the port of
                                                                                  Aden, Yemen
   116
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                                                                                                                          rar
                                                                                                                    Lib




                                                                                                                    oto                                                                                                    rk




                                                                                                                                                                                                                          s
                                                                                                               Ph                                                                                                        Wo
                                                                                                         ank                                                                                                       age
                                                                                                 rld
                                                                                                     B
                                                                                                                                                         Outdoor market in South Africa                     e Im
                                                                                             /Wo                                                                                                    h   s/Th
                                                                                         nett                                                                                                    oug
                                                                                   s Sen                                                                                                    . Bor
                                                                           Tom   a                                                                                                  Don L




                        Tips
                        Mix data and participatory inputs. Understanding competitiveness requires                                the future. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the local-level analysis
                        objective data and qualitative inputs from local stakeholders. When data are                             focuses on external trends (general and sector specific) that drive competi-
                        not available, cities risk making assessments based on perceptions only. And                             tiveness. It is also important to identify the fundamental sources of competi-
                        without qualitative input from local stakeholders, they risk not understanding                           tiveness that will enable the city to become and remain dynamic by
                        the specific issues (often intangible) that can influence competitiveness—and                              changing to meet future demands.
                        will not be prepared to make effective strategic implications. When identifying
                        competitive strengths or weaknesses of the local economy through a participa-                            Assess against the existing vision. The competitive advantage framework can
                        tive process, look for objective evidence (data and information) to support it.                          provide a powerful assessment of the city’s sources of competitive advan-
                                                                                                                                 tage and disadvantage. Therefore, it is important to look at these sources of
                        Assess future trends. A status quo assessment of competitiveness is useful                               advantage in reference to the city’s existing vision and strategic direction.
                        but lacks predictive power. Remember that a city’s sources of competitive                                Does the vision still fit local strengths? Does the city’s direction need to
                        advantage today will not necessarily remain competitive in                                               change in order to reflect its core sources of competitive advantage?
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             Further Information
             For an explanation of the theoretical basis of the competitive advantage framework, see: Competitive Advantage of Nations, by Michael
             Porter (New York: The Free Press,1990).

             For numerous documents on competitive advantage, see: http://www.isc.hbs.edu/index.html.

             For an introductory review of the Porter’s Diamond framework, see the review of Competitive Advantage of Nations, at: http://www.
             rbda.gov.au/literature_review/literature_review.pdf.

             For an example of the Porter’s Diamond framework applied to the LED strategy for a small island in the Philippines, as part of a GTZ-




                                                                                                                                                     ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS
             funded development programme, see: http://www.weitzenegger.de/sirmap/3.html.




         Ⅲ How well are firms in the local economy performing with                 4. Related and supporting industries: the availability and
           regard to the firms in a competing economy (based on                       degree of linkages between core and supporting activities.
           employment, exports, innovation, and productivity)?
         Ⅲ How does the business environment of the local economy                    There is no standardised methodology for analysis con-
           perform relative to that of a competing economy (based                 ducted using the diamond framework, but the process typi-          117
           on financial infrastructure, location, nature of local mar-             cally involves combining descriptive statistics and qualitative
           ket, physical infrastructure, and size)?                               assessment for each of the components shown in figure 9.3.
                                                                                  Many cities follow more generic, informal, competitive
         How Is the Competitive Advantage Analysis Framework Used?                advantage models that consider elements of the diamond
                                                                                  framework and other factors.
         Competitive advantage is an umbrella term for a range of                    The diamond framework and other competitive advan-
         frameworks that assess a local economy based on its poten-               tage models can be useful in structuring a participatory
         tial to create sources of advantage (low cost, high innovation,
                                                                                  workshop to get a snapshot of the local economy. Using this
         or differentiation) for area firms. The most popular compet-
                                                                                  approach, the participants comment on strengths and weak-
         itive advantage analysis frameworks are those developed by
                                                                                  nesses of the local economy and provide other observations
         management theorist Michael Porter, especially his diamond
         framework of national competitiveness and the related five
         forces of firm rivalry, bargaining power of suppliers and cus-
         tomers, threat of new entrants, and substitute products. The                 F I G U R E 9 . 3 Porter’s Diamond Framework
         diamond framework examines four factors that determine                       for Competitive Advantage
         the competitiveness of a city and can be influenced by gov-
                                                                                                               FIRM STRUCTURE,
         ernment:                                                                                           STRATEGY, AND RIVALRY

         1. Factor conditions: the availability of inputs such as
                                                                                           DEMAND                                        FACTOR
            skilled labour, infrastructure, and capital.                                  CONDITIONS                                   CONDITIONS
         2. Demand conditions: the level and sophistication of local
            demand.
                                                                                                                RELATED AND
         3. Business/sector structure, strategy, and rivalry: the                                           SUPPORTING INDUSTRIES
            degree of competition.
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                        on each of the defined factors of competitiveness. A benefit                     Ⅲ What factors could influence the city’s future economic
                        of this approach is that it encourages local actors to see their                 development, and how?
                        current situation and economic potential in a different way;                   Ⅲ What is the desired future for the city? What needs to
                        considering economic development possibilities from a de-                        change to get there?
                        mand side can be especially helpful for both local organisa-
                        tions and surveyors.
                           The competitive advantage analysis framework tends to make                  How Is Scenario Planning Used?
                        extensive use of benchmarking analysis, as competitiveness is                  Scenario planning is a strategic planning framework used to
                        almost always defined with regard to reference economies. This                  predict potential changes and understand the implications of
                        framework also has close links with cluster strategies and thus                those changes to identify strategies that might be used to
                        makes extensive use of cluster mapping tools.                                  adapt to these changes. This approach can be an effective
                                                                                                       framework for testing the existing assessment of the local
   LED RESOURCE GUIDE




                        Note: In addition to assessing the competitiveness of a city’s overall econ-
                        omy, competitive advantage models are also more commonly used to               economy and for challenging the LED strategy from the
                        analyse the competitiveness of individual sectors in a local economy.
                                                                                                       standpoint of uncertain future environments.
                                                                                                          Scenario planning highlights major forces that may shape
                        What Key Inputs Are Required                                                   the future and provides insight on how these forces may
                        for Competitive Advantage Analysis?                                            interact; it does not attempt to predict one specific outlook.
                        Using the competitive advantage analysis framework effec-                      The sources of changes considered can be relatively pre-
   118                                                                                                 dictable (trends in local demographics) or unpredictable
                        tively requires quantitative and/or qualitative data on the main
                                                                                                       (global economic conditions, for example). In scenario plan-
                        components of the Porter’s Diamond framework, including
                                                                                                       ning, a scenario describes a plausible future that can incor-
                        employment data, inter-firm linkages, size and nature of the
                                                                                                       porate a range of qualitative and quantitative information.
                        local market, financial infrastructure, and the skill and educa-
                                                                                                       There is no set number of scenarios to be developed, but sce-
                        tional levels of the local labour force. It is also valuable to
                                                                                                       nario planning exercises typically develop at least two or
                        obtain similar data from at least one of several other cities con-
                                                                                                       three contrasting future scenarios.
                        sidered to be the city’s main competitors or peers.                               Three broad scenario planning frameworks are used,
                           Competitive analysis requires an understanding of com-                      sometimes in combination, in cities:
                        petitiveness theory and how it is applied in urban and
                        regional economies. But an understanding of complex                            1. Qualitative scenario planning. In this setting, a facili-
                        econometrics is not required, and there are no requirements                       tated group-based process typically involves policymak-
                        for specific software or other analytical resources. When data                     ers, planners, and internal and external experts. The main
                        availability is not a problem, this framework has moderate                        steps include determining which macroeconomic forces
                        resource intensity.                                                               exist and how they might interact to change the external
                                                                                                          environment. Scenarios are then created and analysed for
                                                                                                          their implications on the local economy.
                        Scenario Planning
                                                                                                       2. Quantitative scenario planning (scenario forecasting).
                        What Issues Are Addressed by Scenario Planning?                                   A technique traditionally used mainly for spatial plan-
                        The following questions can be addressed by scenario                              ning, quantitative scenario plans use economic forecast-
                                                                                                          ing techniques to analyse how different macroeconomic
                        planning:
                                                                                                          scenarios might shape the structure and performance of
                        Ⅲ How might my local economy look in the future, and                              the local economy. This typically is an analytical exercise,
                           how could this change the assessment of the city’s com-                        but it is often conducted in combination with qualitative
                           petitiveness?                                                                  scenario planning.
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         CASE STUDIES
             Scenario Planning
             Qualitative Scenario Planning: COPENHAGEN (Denmark)                               considered two scenarios: a status quo scenario (which assumed that no
             Since 2003, Wonderful Copenhagen, the tourism organisation of Greater             new major infrastructure developments occur and no specific strategies are
             Copenhagen, has used scenario planning as a framework to communicate              implemented to change the historical growth pattern) and a target scenario
             with policymakers. Two or three scenarios, typically one with no political        (based on an ambitious but achievable goal of increased GRP per capita).
             initiative or investment versus one with great political initiative, are devel-   The analysis then calculated the investment levels needed to meet this
             oped each year. These scenarios are then quantified by the tourism organ-          target.
             isation’s analysts using a basic model to estimate the impact of tourism on




                                                                                                                                                                                                                      ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS
                                                                                               Brisbane officials found this analysis to be highly useful for directing the
             economic growth. For example, in developing the organisation’s tourism            city’s economic strategy, because it provided substantial insight on the local
             strategy for 2007–9, Wonderful Copenhagen developed two scenarios. In             economy and helped to mobilise decision makers by showing them more
             one scenario, the sub-national government does nothing to promote                 clearly the potential impacts of specific strategic and investment decisions.
             tourism, and the short-term growth rates continue at the level of the past
             decade. However, in the medium-term, the city experiences declining
                                                                                               Futures Framework: GLASGOW (Scotland)
             growth due to capacity problems and international competition. In the
             alternative scenario, the sub-national government invests in facilities,          Glasgow first used a futures framework as part of the process of developing
             infrastructure, and city marketing, which results in a doubling of the city’s     a vision and strategic direction for the Clyde-Valley city-region. The process
             projected long-term growth.                                                       combined foresighted research and intense stakeholder facilitation (with
                                                                                               workshops and one-to-one interviews), where four generic city scenarios                                                119
             Scenario Forecasting: BRISBANE (Australia)                                        were developed: Stepping Out; Fusion; Growing Our Own; and Getting Ahead
             Brisbane used scenario planning to forecast its 1999 and 2006 strategy            of the Joneses. Current strategies and perceptions of the city’s competitive-
             development cycles and map out the city’s medium- to long-term growth             ness were then tested against these scenarios. The city of Glasgow found the
             path. The key economic indicators that were forecasted included popula-           process to be particularly valuable for establishing a realistic vision, and now
             tion, employment, and output. For example, the 1999 forecasting exercise          uses the framework to develop its new economic policy strategy.




                                                                                                                                                                                  Courtesy if Brisbane City Council




                  Brisbane by night



         3. Futures. The futures approach can be seen as scenario                                   to reach the desired future. This framework tends to be
            planning in reverse. In these scenarios, futures are first                               both qualitative and participatory.
            defined, and stakeholders agree to a short list of possible
            futures for the city. With these futures as the goal, the                               Cities can also use scenario planning as an ongoing ana-
            strategy process then works in reverse (back to the status                          lytical process to monitor specific indicators. Then, as time
            quo analysis) in order to clarify the strategic path needed                         passes, actual events and developments can be assessed
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                                                                                                 against the selected scenarios, new scenarios can be devel-
                        Tips                                                                     oped, and new decisions or policies can be made to address
                                                                                                 changing conditions.
                        Keep it simple. It is generally advisable to limit the number of
                        scenarios developed for a city. Ideally there should be no more than
                                                                                                 What Key Inputs Are Required In Scenario Planning?
                        about four. This makes it easier for the participants to separate the
                        scenarios and makes the framework more potent for political              A scenario planning exercise can range from an informal
                        communication.                                                           planning activity based on a qualitative discussion of ”what
                                                                                                 if” scenarios to a highly analytical exercise in which econo-
                        Choose a dynamic and creative team. Including participants who           metric methods and computer simulation programs are used
                        are creative thinkers in the exercise may lead to surprising scenarios   to quantify the outcomes of different scenarios. The follow-
                        and provide the participating policymakers, experts, and planners        ing are the minimum needed to conduct a scenario planning
   LED RESOURCE GUIDE




                        with unusual but good ideas not brought to the table by participants     exercise:
                        with a more traditional point of view.
                                                                                                 Ⅲ A trained and experienced facilitator to lead the process.
                                                                                                 Ⅲ Participants with a good knowledge of the theme for the
                        Combine qualitative and quantitative approaches. As always in               exercise.
                        economic analysis, it is best to mix objective, quantitative analysis
                        (scenario forecasting) with qualitative and participative approaches     More complex scenario planning exercises are generally
  120                                                                                            advisable only for cities and city-regions with considerable
                        that can broaden understanding of the underlying mechanics of how
                        different scenarios might affect the local economy.                      experience. To quantify city scenarios, considerable data and
                                                                                                 expertise may be required.




                         Further Information

                         For a discussion of scenario planning and practical advice, see: Plotting Your Scenarios, by Jay Ogilvy and Peter
                         Schwartz (December 2004, Global Business Network Web site) at: http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv?
                         aid=34550.

                         For step-by-step guidelines and advice on scenario planning, see: http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/
                         Main_Page.

                         For an accessible guide to scenario planning, see Foresight Futures Scenarios: Developing and Applying a Participative
                         Strategic Planning Tool, by Frans Berkhout and Julia Hertin (March 2002, Greener Management International);
                         article available for purchase from Greenleaf Publishing at: http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/page21/Journals/
                         GmiHome.

                         For discussion of a number of regional economic forecasting techniques, see Regional Economic Modeling: A System-
                         atic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis, by George I. Treyz (1993, Kluwer Academic Publishers).
10304-09_CH09.qxd     6/20/07     3:25 PM             Page 121




         What Other Strategic Frameworks Are There?                                                    nomic development, industry and firm-level strategies, can
                                                                                                       also be useful. Please note that the frameworks listed in table
         This Resource Guide has focused on the most widely used                                       9.1 have not been used by the 15-city reference group pre-
         strategic frameworks. But other frameworks developed for                                      sented in this Guide.
         use in strategic planning contexts, including regional eco-


           T A B L E 9 . 1 Overview of Other Strategic Frameworks
              Strategic
             framework                                               Description                                                               Further Information




                                                                                                                                                                                                  ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS
          Importance-           A derivation of the locational comparative advantage framework that involves a                For detailed discussion of the framework, see: Local Economic
          strength analysis     matrix assessment of the relative importance of individual location factors for each          Development: Analysis and Practice, by J. P. Blair (1995, Sage
          (locational compar-   sector against the relative competitiveness of the local economy in those factors             Publications).
          ative advantage)      (Blair, 1995, p. 157).

                                Most useful for analysing the competitiveness of individual sectors; especially to
                                identify and prioritise sectors and understand the competitiveness in target sectors.

          Systemic              Examines a range of factors that determine the evolution of economic systems at               For more information see: Systemic Competitiveness Revisited:
          competitiveness       various territorial levels. It uses four levels of analysis to measure the current state of   Conclusions from Technical Assistance in Private Sector Devel-
                                the local economy and develop a strategic plan (GTZ):                                         opment at: http://www.mesopartner.com/englisch/e-                   121
                                                                                                                              publ.html.
                                   ● Meta-level: Local actors’ capacity to cooperate and trust / degree to which
                                       they can agree upon shared objectives                                                  For an explanation of the theory and application of systemic
                                   ● Macro-level: Financial (budgetary) capacity and management                               competitiveness, see: Systemic Competitiveness. New Gover-
                                   ● Meso-level: Existence of local economic support (incubators, business assis-             nance Patterns for Industrial Development, by K. Esser, W.
                                       tance, etc.)                                                                           Hildebrand, & J. Meyer-Stamer (German Development Insti-
                                   ● Micro-level: Linkages between firms/stakeholders in the local economy                     tute)
                                       (clusters)

          Multisector quanti-   Framework which combines qualitative (expert opinion surveys) and quantitative                The analytical framework is explained in full in Regional Eco-
          tative analysis       techniques to identify opportunities for growth in the local/regional economy.                nomic Development—Analysis and Planning Strategy, by R. J.
          (MSQA)                                                                                                              Stimson, R. R. Stough, &. B. H. Roberts ( 2002, Springer)
                                Most relevant for identifying sectoral or cluster opportunities in a local/regional
                                economy; involves expert surveys and then categorical scoring of regional sectors             For a discussion and practical application of MSQA, see:
                                according to a set of performance criteria. Each sector is ranked as strong, average,         Regional Risk and Economic Development at:
                                or weak in each criterion, based in part on input-output tables, expert interviews,           http://hds.canberra.edu.au/cities/research.html
                                and other data sources. Criteria are then weighted to derive overall results.

          Regional competi-     Measures regional competitiveness in a dynamic way by looking at three                        For a brief overview of the framework, see:
          tiveness perform-     dimensions:                                                                                   http://www.ersa.org/ersaconfs/ersa04/PDF/697.pdf.
          ance cube
                                    1. Leadership (strong vs. weak)                                                           For more detailed discussion of the framework, see:. Stim-
                                    2. Institutions (effective vs. ineffective)                                               son,R. J., R. R. Stough, & M. Salazar. (2005). “Leadership and
                                    3. Resource endowments and market fit (good versus poor).                                  Institutional Factors in Endogenous Regional Development.”
                                                                                                                              Investigationes Regionales. 7: 23–52.
                                New technique that has not been used yet as part of a city strategy process; provides
                                a broad framework for assessing territorial (rather than sectoral) competitiveness.

                                                                                                                                                                                    (continued)
10304-09_CH09.qxd               6/20/07      3:25 PM        Page 122




                         T A B L E 9 . 1 Overview of Other Strategic Frameworks (continued)
                           Strategic
                          framework                                             Description                                                             Further Information
                        Balanced business     Business planning and monitoring framework that focuses on ensuring that strate-         For an introductory discussion of balanced scorecard, see:
                        scorecard (Norton     gies are balanced around four perspectives: 1) financial performance; 2) customers        http://www.balancedscorecard.biz/Introduction_BSC.html
                        and Kaplan)           (service); 3) business processes (efficiency); and 4) learning and growth.
                                                                                                                                       For a step-by-step guide on assessing the suitability of this
                                              Monitors performance across a balanced set of indicators (the specific categories can     approach for an organisation and its purpose, see:
                                              be redefined to meet the specific needs of LED); Currently used in San Fernando for        http://www.centre-for-egovernment.com/balscore.htm.
                                              assessing governance and institutional quality as part of the International Solidarity
                                              for Asia’s (ISA) Public Governance Scorecard (PGS) programme.                            For an accessible set of guidelines, see: http://www.audit-
                                                                                                                                       scotland.gov.uk/index/99ms_01.asp.
   LED RESOURCE GUIDE




                        Core competencies/    A framework that involves identifying the core competitive strengths of the region,      For an accessible step-by-step guide, see:http://www.cipher-
                        white spaces          and identifying “white spaces” (or unexploited areas of potential) for the region.       sys.com/hofhelp/Hamel%20Prahalt/hamel-prahaladhelp
                        (Hamel and                                                                                                     file.htm.
                        Prahalad model)       Designed originally for firm-level strategy, but can be adapted for sector or regional
                                              strategies; most appropriate for identifying and prioritising sectoral opportunities.    For a detailed explanation of the framework. see: Competing
                                                                                                                                       for the Future by G. Hamal and D. K. Prahalad (1994, Harvard
                                                                                                                                       Business School Press)

  122

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Assessing City Competitiveness Frameworks

  • 1. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 111 Assessing Competitiveness 9 Guide to Strategic Frameworks ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS In chapter 9, the focus is on four strategic frameworks widely used by LED practitioners and the 15 refer- ence cities discussed in this guide. These are: These four frameworks are introduced in the following sections, with guidance on the analytical questions each framework helps cities Ⅲ SWOT analysis address, along with practical information on how each framework can Ⅲ Problem analysis be used, the key inputs required, tips and best practice, and informa- tion on useful sources of additional information. Ⅲ Competitive advantage analysis A brief overview of other useful frameworks is presented in table 9.1. 111 Ⅲ Scenario planning Although developed for use in various strategic planning contexts, including regional economic development and industry and firm-level strategies, these frameworks are less widely used than SWOT analysis, problem analysis, competitive advantage analysis, and scenario planning. SWOT Analysis What Issues Are Addressed by SWOT Analysis? The following questions can be addressed by a SWOT analysis: Ⅲ What are the overall strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats faced by the city? Ⅲ What are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats faced by the city regarding a particular issue (such as employment) or in a particular area of eco- nomic development (such as economic structure)? How Is the SWOT Analysis Framework Used? The SWOT is the most popular strategic framework used to assess the local economy. It requires limited quantitative/statistical data input, is relatively easy to understand and deploy, and lends itself well to participatory approaches.
  • 2. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 112 CASE STUDY SWOT Analysis—IVANO-FRANKIVSK (Ukraine) Ivano-Frankivsk used SWOT analysis as its principle strategy development framework in 2005. The SWOT analysis was conducted by subcommittees of a Strategy Development Committee representing the city’s political, business, and community interests. These stakeholders shared their per- spectives of the city’s economic environment and commented on the city’s strengths and weaknesses in a brainstorming session facilitated by LED experts with extensive experience in conducting participatory processes. The committee’s initial ideas were summarised and categorised, and then discussed at length in order to set priorities and agree on which issues LED RESOURCE GUIDE should feed into the strategic plan. Conducting the SWOT analysis in a par- ticipatory forum of this type is considered highly effective. It provided an opportunity for key stakeholders and community leaders to be directly Topham Picture Point/Top Foto engaged in the strategy development process and to contribute their own ideas. The SWOT framework was also seen as a good fit for the five- to six- month time schedule allotted for the strategic planning process. Hydropower dam in Ukraine 112 SWOT analysis involves analysing both internal and exter- nal factors that affect the city, and identifies unique features Tips of the city that set it apart from other cities and could serve Carefully analyse each factor To maximise the value of a SWOT exer- as a major selling point. The SWOT approach involves cise, it is important to consider what each of the factors means and organising key data and information about the city across determine which are most likely to have the greatest impact on the four categories: strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and local economy. threats, as shown in figure 9.1. Although SWOT is sometimes used for individual-level Place the city in a dynamic context. The SWOT framework can be sup- LED indicators (sectoral structure and specialisation, for ported with other tools (such as PEST analysis). This helps city admin- istrators to consider the factors that might erode or support identified strengths and opportunities in the future. F I G U R E 9 . 1 SWOT Analysis Framework Place the city in a comparative context. Think about the strengths and STRENGTHS WEAKNESSES • Location near key ports • Lack of strong base of business service weaknesses of the city when compared with other cities in the region, INTERNAL • Major universities and research centres firms or similar cities that might compete to attract investment. Identify • High quality of life • Declining manufacturing base • Highly educated population • High cost of property opportunities that exist to develop differentiated strategies based on • Substantial foreign investment the city’s unique strengths. OPPORTUNITIES THREATS • Investments in new technology • Continuing brain drain of recent Involve a range of stakeholders. The SWOT framework is most useful EXTERNAL incubators graduates • Taking advantage of global • Impact of security concerns on port when part of a participatory process where synergies among stake- outsourcing trends logistics sector and free trade zone holders and opportunities can be maximized. • Establishment of free trade zone plans
  • 3. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 113 Further Information For templates for the use of SWOT in an LED context, see: http://www.worldbank.org/urban/local/frameworkkit/pages/module-2- index.htm. For an introduction to SWOT analysis and a checklist of topics included in a SWOT analysis of the local economy, see the International Labour Organisation’s toolkit: Local Economic Development Operational Guidelines in Post-Crisis Situations at: http://www.ilo.org/dyn/ empent/empent.Portal?p_prog=L&p_subprog=&p_category=TOOLS. SWOT analysis is heavily used in a business context, and there are many useful guides on the use of this framework as well as templates. For example: ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS ● For a discussion of the use of SWOT analysis in a business context, see: http://www.themanager.org/Models/SWOT.htm. ● For a brief discussion of (and free template for SWOT analysis in a business context), see: http://www.businessballs.com/swot- analysisfreetemplate.htm or http://www.mindtools.com/pages/article/newTMC_05.htm. example), it is most commonly used to summarise the posi- Tips tion of the local economy overall. In particular, SWOT 113 Involve an experienced facilitator. One of the challenges of problem frameworks are commonly used to facilitate participatory structuring is that it often highlights different perspectives and raises workshops aimed at agreeing on the status quo of the local issues of political conflict among stakeholders. Managing this process economy. SWOT is a concept that can be understood by in a workshop or other participatory format can be a significant chal- most stakeholders, therefore, it is a useful framework to build lenge—if possible, make use of an experienced facilitator consensus in the strategy development process. A SWOT analysis is often a valuable input into identifying and priori- Conduct the analysis over several sessions. Effective use of the problem tising strategic priorities, local economy development initia- analysis framework (mapping links in the problem tree, for example) tives, and projects. requires time for contemplation and often additional research. A single-day workshop may not provide the time required to undertake problem analysis. What Key Inputs Are Required for SWOT Analysis? Test with objective analysis. Test the issues raised by participants An effective SWOT analysis can be completed with limited against quantitative and qualitative information obtained in surveys quantitative/statistical data input. But when these data are by using other tools and analytical frameworks that can support those not available, practitioners rely on qualitative input. This data. Together, the subjective and more objective data sets should input is sometimes obtained by assembling a panel of experts inform the assessment and provide a more complete picture. with specific knowledge of different sectors and aspects of the Combine with other frameworks. Although problem analysis frame- economy. Alternatively, a SWOT analysis can be undertaken works are valuable for identifying strategic issues to be addressed, in a larger participatory forum where individual input is they tend to overlook some critical aspects of the local economy requested. It is recommended that such an event be limited assessment (areas of opportunity, identification of sources of competi- to about 60 people to enable all to participate. In these cases, tive advantage, for example). Therefore, strategies based on problem the SWOT analysis requires a trained facilitator. analysis frameworks alone risk being too narrow. Ideally, SWOT analysis includes comparative data from other cities in the country or comparable international
  • 4. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 114 benchmarks. This can help confirm the accuracy of identi- problem trees, objective trees, and various forms of needs fied strengths and weaknesses. Overall, SWOT analysis analysis. requires low resource intensity. The framework usually involves four basic steps: 1. Identify a long list of problems and issues (in most cases, Problem Analysis unsatisfactory situations are described, and a set of symp- What Issues Are Addressed by Problem Analysis? toms emerge). 2. Identify one or more core problems that are at the root of The following questions can be addressed by a problem the others (the idea is to attack the core problems rather analysis: than the symptoms). 3. Determine which problems are causes and which are Ⅲ What are the main issues facing the local economy? effects. Ⅲ How are these issues related to each other and to the LED RESOURCE GUIDE 4. Arrange the issues in a hierarchy of causes and effects. external environment? Ⅲ Which issues are of higher or lower priority? A problem tree is often developed from this information, which enables practitioners to visually illustrate symptoms, How Is the Problem Analysis Framework Used? core problems, and interrelationships. An example is shown in figure 9.2. Problem analysis is a framework used to identify core issues 114 to be addressed in the strategic planning process. Problem in this context does not necessarily indicate weaknesses or What Key Inputs Are Required for Problem Analysis? concerns but can equally refer to opportunities and chal- A problem analysis does not require any detailed, sophisti- lenges—essentially it is about identifying issues that should cated assessment of quantitative data. Instead, this frame- be addressed in the city strategy. Problem analysis is most work draws on qualitative information and perceptions from commonly used to analyse qualitative information about the stakeholders. The main requirements for using this frame- local economy that has been collected through participa- work are: tory processes (see participatory issues analysis on page 71). The various frameworks for problem analysis include Ⅲ A trained and experienced facilitator to lead the process. CASE STUDY Problem Analysis—SAN FERNANDO (Philippines) In 2001, San Fernando used the problem tree as one of two main strategic Overall, the city found problem tree analysis somewhat difficult to use com- frameworks (along with SWOT analysis) to assess its local economy and pared to SWOT analysis. Stakeholders were generally able to identify prob- develop a CDS. The problem tree framework was an analytical output of a lems effectively, but separating symptoms from the core problems was series of workshops that used participatory issues identification tools to more difficult. Similarly, mapping the relationships between problems capture perceived issues facing the local economy. often required substantial resources and effective facilitation. However, the framework was found to be highly valuable in showing linkages between After all relevant issues were identified, the problem tree framework was key issues and in defining the city’ strategic priorities. used in participatory workshops in an effort to trace problems back to a set of core issues and to map causes and effects.
  • 5. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 115 F I G U R E 9 . 2 A Problem Tree Showing Challenges Facing a CDS in the Philippines Further Information For an introduction to problem tree analysis and related UNEMPLOYMENT documents from the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organisation, see: http://www.comminit.com/planning- models/pmodels/planningmodels-126.html. Lack of livelihood LACK OF INVESTORS For basic information and an example of a problem tree analysis derived from the context of urban upgrading from Lack of training Lack of Lack of Lack of land resources skilled workers infrastructure GTZ and NORAD, see: http://web.mit.edu/urbanupgrading/ ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS upgrading/issues-tools/tools/problem-tree.html. Lack of education For a discussion of and guidelines on the use of problem tree analysis, see the Strategy Survival Guide prepared by the (Source: Derived from the Philippines CDS toolkit, available online at: www.cdsea.org/ Prime Minister’s Strategy Unit (U.K.) at: http://www. db/CDSContent.asp?ID=11.) cabinetoffice.gov.uk/strategy/survivalguide/index.asp. For an introduction to problem tree analysis and other materials from the Overseas Development Institute, see: http://www.odi.org.uk/Rapid/Tools/Toolkits/Policy_ Impact/Index.html. Tips 115 Involve an experienced facilitator. One of the challenges of problem structuring is that it often highlights different perspectives and raises issues of political conflict among stakeholders. Managing this process in a workshop or other participatory format can be a significant chal- Ⅲ Participants with a good knowledge of the local economy. lenge, though an experienced facilitator can help guide the process. Ⅲ Facilities to host participatory processes such as seminars Conduct the analysis over several sessions. Effective use of the problem and workshops. analysis framework (mapping links in the problem tree, for example) requires time for contemplation and often additional research. A Problem analysis does not require econometric expertise or single-day workshop may not provide the time required to undertake in-depth experience using similar frameworks. Therefore, problem analysis. the overall resource requirements of this tool are relatively low. Test with objective analysis. Test the issues raised by participants against quantitative and qualitative information obtained in surveys by using other tools and analytical frameworks that can support those Competitive Advantage Analysis data. Together, the subjective and more objective data sets should inform the assessment and provide a more complete picture. What Issues Are Addressed by Competitive Advantage Analysis? Combine with other frameworks. Although problem analysis frame- The following questions can be addressed by competitive works are valuable for identifying strategic issues to be addressed, advantage analysis: they tend to overlook some critical aspects of the local economy assessment (areas of opportunity, identification of sources of competi- Ⅲ How competitive is the local economy? tive advantage, for example). Therefore, strategies based on problem Ⅲ How well is the local economy performing relative to a analysis frameworks alone risk being reactionary. competing economy (based on employment, exports, gov- ernment efficiency, GDP, innovation, and productivity)?
  • 6. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 116 CASE STUDIES Competitive Advantage Analysis ADEN (Yemen) DURBAN (South Africa) The Aden Competitiveness Assessment, one of the foundation studies for the The city of Durban regularly used both the Porter’s Diamond framework and Aden CDS, framed competitiveness around the Porter’s Diamond frame- the related Five Forces as strategic frameworks in assessing competitive- work. The primary data input to the analysis came from the results of the ness in Durban, especially in analysing specific sectors and clusters in the city’s competitiveness survey, which was designed around the four main city. Durban has found these frameworks to be valuable in engaging the components of the Diamond framework, as were the discussions held in the private sector on competitiveness issues, because they provide an accessi- later competitiveness seminar. Aden officials found this framework easy to ble yet rigorous approach that is more in line with private sector thinking use because it did not require complex analytical methods. The process was than some of the more static frameworks, such as SWOT analysis. also easily understood by a range of stakeholders, so it was easily adapted LED RESOURCE GUIDE in participatory exercises. Workers in the port of Aden, Yemen 116 y rar Lib oto rk s Ph Wo ank age rld B Outdoor market in South Africa e Im /Wo h s/Th nett oug s Sen . Bor Tom a Don L Tips Mix data and participatory inputs. Understanding competitiveness requires the future. Therefore, it is important to ensure that the local-level analysis objective data and qualitative inputs from local stakeholders. When data are focuses on external trends (general and sector specific) that drive competi- not available, cities risk making assessments based on perceptions only. And tiveness. It is also important to identify the fundamental sources of competi- without qualitative input from local stakeholders, they risk not understanding tiveness that will enable the city to become and remain dynamic by the specific issues (often intangible) that can influence competitiveness—and changing to meet future demands. will not be prepared to make effective strategic implications. When identifying competitive strengths or weaknesses of the local economy through a participa- Assess against the existing vision. The competitive advantage framework can tive process, look for objective evidence (data and information) to support it. provide a powerful assessment of the city’s sources of competitive advan- tage and disadvantage. Therefore, it is important to look at these sources of Assess future trends. A status quo assessment of competitiveness is useful advantage in reference to the city’s existing vision and strategic direction. but lacks predictive power. Remember that a city’s sources of competitive Does the vision still fit local strengths? Does the city’s direction need to advantage today will not necessarily remain competitive in change in order to reflect its core sources of competitive advantage?
  • 7. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 117 Further Information For an explanation of the theoretical basis of the competitive advantage framework, see: Competitive Advantage of Nations, by Michael Porter (New York: The Free Press,1990). For numerous documents on competitive advantage, see: http://www.isc.hbs.edu/index.html. For an introductory review of the Porter’s Diamond framework, see the review of Competitive Advantage of Nations, at: http://www. rbda.gov.au/literature_review/literature_review.pdf. For an example of the Porter’s Diamond framework applied to the LED strategy for a small island in the Philippines, as part of a GTZ- ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS funded development programme, see: http://www.weitzenegger.de/sirmap/3.html. Ⅲ How well are firms in the local economy performing with 4. Related and supporting industries: the availability and regard to the firms in a competing economy (based on degree of linkages between core and supporting activities. employment, exports, innovation, and productivity)? Ⅲ How does the business environment of the local economy There is no standardised methodology for analysis con- perform relative to that of a competing economy (based ducted using the diamond framework, but the process typi- 117 on financial infrastructure, location, nature of local mar- cally involves combining descriptive statistics and qualitative ket, physical infrastructure, and size)? assessment for each of the components shown in figure 9.3. Many cities follow more generic, informal, competitive How Is the Competitive Advantage Analysis Framework Used? advantage models that consider elements of the diamond framework and other factors. Competitive advantage is an umbrella term for a range of The diamond framework and other competitive advan- frameworks that assess a local economy based on its poten- tage models can be useful in structuring a participatory tial to create sources of advantage (low cost, high innovation, workshop to get a snapshot of the local economy. Using this or differentiation) for area firms. The most popular compet- approach, the participants comment on strengths and weak- itive advantage analysis frameworks are those developed by nesses of the local economy and provide other observations management theorist Michael Porter, especially his diamond framework of national competitiveness and the related five forces of firm rivalry, bargaining power of suppliers and cus- tomers, threat of new entrants, and substitute products. The F I G U R E 9 . 3 Porter’s Diamond Framework diamond framework examines four factors that determine for Competitive Advantage the competitiveness of a city and can be influenced by gov- FIRM STRUCTURE, ernment: STRATEGY, AND RIVALRY 1. Factor conditions: the availability of inputs such as DEMAND FACTOR skilled labour, infrastructure, and capital. CONDITIONS CONDITIONS 2. Demand conditions: the level and sophistication of local demand. RELATED AND 3. Business/sector structure, strategy, and rivalry: the SUPPORTING INDUSTRIES degree of competition.
  • 8. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 118 on each of the defined factors of competitiveness. A benefit Ⅲ What factors could influence the city’s future economic of this approach is that it encourages local actors to see their development, and how? current situation and economic potential in a different way; Ⅲ What is the desired future for the city? What needs to considering economic development possibilities from a de- change to get there? mand side can be especially helpful for both local organisa- tions and surveyors. The competitive advantage analysis framework tends to make How Is Scenario Planning Used? extensive use of benchmarking analysis, as competitiveness is Scenario planning is a strategic planning framework used to almost always defined with regard to reference economies. This predict potential changes and understand the implications of framework also has close links with cluster strategies and thus those changes to identify strategies that might be used to makes extensive use of cluster mapping tools. adapt to these changes. This approach can be an effective framework for testing the existing assessment of the local LED RESOURCE GUIDE Note: In addition to assessing the competitiveness of a city’s overall econ- omy, competitive advantage models are also more commonly used to economy and for challenging the LED strategy from the analyse the competitiveness of individual sectors in a local economy. standpoint of uncertain future environments. Scenario planning highlights major forces that may shape What Key Inputs Are Required the future and provides insight on how these forces may for Competitive Advantage Analysis? interact; it does not attempt to predict one specific outlook. Using the competitive advantage analysis framework effec- The sources of changes considered can be relatively pre- 118 dictable (trends in local demographics) or unpredictable tively requires quantitative and/or qualitative data on the main (global economic conditions, for example). In scenario plan- components of the Porter’s Diamond framework, including ning, a scenario describes a plausible future that can incor- employment data, inter-firm linkages, size and nature of the porate a range of qualitative and quantitative information. local market, financial infrastructure, and the skill and educa- There is no set number of scenarios to be developed, but sce- tional levels of the local labour force. It is also valuable to nario planning exercises typically develop at least two or obtain similar data from at least one of several other cities con- three contrasting future scenarios. sidered to be the city’s main competitors or peers. Three broad scenario planning frameworks are used, Competitive analysis requires an understanding of com- sometimes in combination, in cities: petitiveness theory and how it is applied in urban and regional economies. But an understanding of complex 1. Qualitative scenario planning. In this setting, a facili- econometrics is not required, and there are no requirements tated group-based process typically involves policymak- for specific software or other analytical resources. When data ers, planners, and internal and external experts. The main availability is not a problem, this framework has moderate steps include determining which macroeconomic forces resource intensity. exist and how they might interact to change the external environment. Scenarios are then created and analysed for their implications on the local economy. Scenario Planning 2. Quantitative scenario planning (scenario forecasting). What Issues Are Addressed by Scenario Planning? A technique traditionally used mainly for spatial plan- The following questions can be addressed by scenario ning, quantitative scenario plans use economic forecast- ing techniques to analyse how different macroeconomic planning: scenarios might shape the structure and performance of Ⅲ How might my local economy look in the future, and the local economy. This typically is an analytical exercise, how could this change the assessment of the city’s com- but it is often conducted in combination with qualitative petitiveness? scenario planning.
  • 9. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 119 CASE STUDIES Scenario Planning Qualitative Scenario Planning: COPENHAGEN (Denmark) considered two scenarios: a status quo scenario (which assumed that no Since 2003, Wonderful Copenhagen, the tourism organisation of Greater new major infrastructure developments occur and no specific strategies are Copenhagen, has used scenario planning as a framework to communicate implemented to change the historical growth pattern) and a target scenario with policymakers. Two or three scenarios, typically one with no political (based on an ambitious but achievable goal of increased GRP per capita). initiative or investment versus one with great political initiative, are devel- The analysis then calculated the investment levels needed to meet this oped each year. These scenarios are then quantified by the tourism organ- target. isation’s analysts using a basic model to estimate the impact of tourism on ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS Brisbane officials found this analysis to be highly useful for directing the economic growth. For example, in developing the organisation’s tourism city’s economic strategy, because it provided substantial insight on the local strategy for 2007–9, Wonderful Copenhagen developed two scenarios. In economy and helped to mobilise decision makers by showing them more one scenario, the sub-national government does nothing to promote clearly the potential impacts of specific strategic and investment decisions. tourism, and the short-term growth rates continue at the level of the past decade. However, in the medium-term, the city experiences declining Futures Framework: GLASGOW (Scotland) growth due to capacity problems and international competition. In the alternative scenario, the sub-national government invests in facilities, Glasgow first used a futures framework as part of the process of developing infrastructure, and city marketing, which results in a doubling of the city’s a vision and strategic direction for the Clyde-Valley city-region. The process projected long-term growth. combined foresighted research and intense stakeholder facilitation (with workshops and one-to-one interviews), where four generic city scenarios 119 Scenario Forecasting: BRISBANE (Australia) were developed: Stepping Out; Fusion; Growing Our Own; and Getting Ahead Brisbane used scenario planning to forecast its 1999 and 2006 strategy of the Joneses. Current strategies and perceptions of the city’s competitive- development cycles and map out the city’s medium- to long-term growth ness were then tested against these scenarios. The city of Glasgow found the path. The key economic indicators that were forecasted included popula- process to be particularly valuable for establishing a realistic vision, and now tion, employment, and output. For example, the 1999 forecasting exercise uses the framework to develop its new economic policy strategy. Courtesy if Brisbane City Council Brisbane by night 3. Futures. The futures approach can be seen as scenario to reach the desired future. This framework tends to be planning in reverse. In these scenarios, futures are first both qualitative and participatory. defined, and stakeholders agree to a short list of possible futures for the city. With these futures as the goal, the Cities can also use scenario planning as an ongoing ana- strategy process then works in reverse (back to the status lytical process to monitor specific indicators. Then, as time quo analysis) in order to clarify the strategic path needed passes, actual events and developments can be assessed
  • 10. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 120 against the selected scenarios, new scenarios can be devel- Tips oped, and new decisions or policies can be made to address changing conditions. Keep it simple. It is generally advisable to limit the number of scenarios developed for a city. Ideally there should be no more than What Key Inputs Are Required In Scenario Planning? about four. This makes it easier for the participants to separate the scenarios and makes the framework more potent for political A scenario planning exercise can range from an informal communication. planning activity based on a qualitative discussion of ”what if” scenarios to a highly analytical exercise in which econo- Choose a dynamic and creative team. Including participants who metric methods and computer simulation programs are used are creative thinkers in the exercise may lead to surprising scenarios to quantify the outcomes of different scenarios. The follow- and provide the participating policymakers, experts, and planners ing are the minimum needed to conduct a scenario planning LED RESOURCE GUIDE with unusual but good ideas not brought to the table by participants exercise: with a more traditional point of view. Ⅲ A trained and experienced facilitator to lead the process. Ⅲ Participants with a good knowledge of the theme for the Combine qualitative and quantitative approaches. As always in exercise. economic analysis, it is best to mix objective, quantitative analysis (scenario forecasting) with qualitative and participative approaches More complex scenario planning exercises are generally 120 advisable only for cities and city-regions with considerable that can broaden understanding of the underlying mechanics of how different scenarios might affect the local economy. experience. To quantify city scenarios, considerable data and expertise may be required. Further Information For a discussion of scenario planning and practical advice, see: Plotting Your Scenarios, by Jay Ogilvy and Peter Schwartz (December 2004, Global Business Network Web site) at: http://www.gbn.com/ArticleDisplayServlet.srv? aid=34550. For step-by-step guidelines and advice on scenario planning, see: http://scenariothinking.org/wiki/index.php/ Main_Page. For an accessible guide to scenario planning, see Foresight Futures Scenarios: Developing and Applying a Participative Strategic Planning Tool, by Frans Berkhout and Julia Hertin (March 2002, Greener Management International); article available for purchase from Greenleaf Publishing at: http://www.greenleaf-publishing.com/page21/Journals/ GmiHome. For discussion of a number of regional economic forecasting techniques, see Regional Economic Modeling: A System- atic Approach to Economic Forecasting and Policy Analysis, by George I. Treyz (1993, Kluwer Academic Publishers).
  • 11. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 121 What Other Strategic Frameworks Are There? nomic development, industry and firm-level strategies, can also be useful. Please note that the frameworks listed in table This Resource Guide has focused on the most widely used 9.1 have not been used by the 15-city reference group pre- strategic frameworks. But other frameworks developed for sented in this Guide. use in strategic planning contexts, including regional eco- T A B L E 9 . 1 Overview of Other Strategic Frameworks Strategic framework Description Further Information ASSESSING COMPETITIVENESS Importance- A derivation of the locational comparative advantage framework that involves a For detailed discussion of the framework, see: Local Economic strength analysis matrix assessment of the relative importance of individual location factors for each Development: Analysis and Practice, by J. P. Blair (1995, Sage (locational compar- sector against the relative competitiveness of the local economy in those factors Publications). ative advantage) (Blair, 1995, p. 157). Most useful for analysing the competitiveness of individual sectors; especially to identify and prioritise sectors and understand the competitiveness in target sectors. Systemic Examines a range of factors that determine the evolution of economic systems at For more information see: Systemic Competitiveness Revisited: competitiveness various territorial levels. It uses four levels of analysis to measure the current state of Conclusions from Technical Assistance in Private Sector Devel- the local economy and develop a strategic plan (GTZ): opment at: http://www.mesopartner.com/englisch/e- 121 publ.html. ● Meta-level: Local actors’ capacity to cooperate and trust / degree to which they can agree upon shared objectives For an explanation of the theory and application of systemic ● Macro-level: Financial (budgetary) capacity and management competitiveness, see: Systemic Competitiveness. New Gover- ● Meso-level: Existence of local economic support (incubators, business assis- nance Patterns for Industrial Development, by K. Esser, W. tance, etc.) Hildebrand, & J. Meyer-Stamer (German Development Insti- ● Micro-level: Linkages between firms/stakeholders in the local economy tute) (clusters) Multisector quanti- Framework which combines qualitative (expert opinion surveys) and quantitative The analytical framework is explained in full in Regional Eco- tative analysis techniques to identify opportunities for growth in the local/regional economy. nomic Development—Analysis and Planning Strategy, by R. J. (MSQA) Stimson, R. R. Stough, &. B. H. Roberts ( 2002, Springer) Most relevant for identifying sectoral or cluster opportunities in a local/regional economy; involves expert surveys and then categorical scoring of regional sectors For a discussion and practical application of MSQA, see: according to a set of performance criteria. Each sector is ranked as strong, average, Regional Risk and Economic Development at: or weak in each criterion, based in part on input-output tables, expert interviews, http://hds.canberra.edu.au/cities/research.html and other data sources. Criteria are then weighted to derive overall results. Regional competi- Measures regional competitiveness in a dynamic way by looking at three For a brief overview of the framework, see: tiveness perform- dimensions: http://www.ersa.org/ersaconfs/ersa04/PDF/697.pdf. ance cube 1. Leadership (strong vs. weak) For more detailed discussion of the framework, see:. Stim- 2. Institutions (effective vs. ineffective) son,R. J., R. R. Stough, & M. Salazar. (2005). “Leadership and 3. Resource endowments and market fit (good versus poor). Institutional Factors in Endogenous Regional Development.” Investigationes Regionales. 7: 23–52. New technique that has not been used yet as part of a city strategy process; provides a broad framework for assessing territorial (rather than sectoral) competitiveness. (continued)
  • 12. 10304-09_CH09.qxd 6/20/07 3:25 PM Page 122 T A B L E 9 . 1 Overview of Other Strategic Frameworks (continued) Strategic framework Description Further Information Balanced business Business planning and monitoring framework that focuses on ensuring that strate- For an introductory discussion of balanced scorecard, see: scorecard (Norton gies are balanced around four perspectives: 1) financial performance; 2) customers http://www.balancedscorecard.biz/Introduction_BSC.html and Kaplan) (service); 3) business processes (efficiency); and 4) learning and growth. For a step-by-step guide on assessing the suitability of this Monitors performance across a balanced set of indicators (the specific categories can approach for an organisation and its purpose, see: be redefined to meet the specific needs of LED); Currently used in San Fernando for http://www.centre-for-egovernment.com/balscore.htm. assessing governance and institutional quality as part of the International Solidarity for Asia’s (ISA) Public Governance Scorecard (PGS) programme. For an accessible set of guidelines, see: http://www.audit- scotland.gov.uk/index/99ms_01.asp. LED RESOURCE GUIDE Core competencies/ A framework that involves identifying the core competitive strengths of the region, For an accessible step-by-step guide, see:http://www.cipher- white spaces and identifying “white spaces” (or unexploited areas of potential) for the region. sys.com/hofhelp/Hamel%20Prahalt/hamel-prahaladhelp (Hamel and file.htm. Prahalad model) Designed originally for firm-level strategy, but can be adapted for sector or regional strategies; most appropriate for identifying and prioritising sectoral opportunities. For a detailed explanation of the framework. see: Competing for the Future by G. Hamal and D. K. Prahalad (1994, Harvard Business School Press) 122