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Minería y exploración en Perú:
situación y perspectivas
M. Cardozo
Febrero 05, 2015
Jueves Minero
Instituto de Ingenieros de Minas del Perú
• Metal prices
• Cost and margin
• Production
• Exploration
• Mineral discoveries
• Junior financing
Content
Metal Prices
$1238 $1379 $1238 $1142 $1265
Since November
2014, oil price drops
offsetting US Dollar
influence
military and political
concerns about Russia
and Ukraine in the first
half of 2014.
US economic
recovery leds to US
Dollar strenghtening
$16.24
$15.71
Precios del Oro y la Plata
$18.25
$17.25
Copper
Spot Price
Copper
Storage60 days
6 months
1 year
5 years
Zinc
Spot Price
Zinc
LME
Storage
60 days
6 months
1 year
5 years
Recent and Forecast Commodity Prices
Cash Price (26-Dec-
14)
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E
Aluminum ($0.93 / lb) $0.99 $1.09 $0.92 $0.84 $0.87 $0.93 $0.98 $1.03 $1.13
Copper ($2.89 / lb) $3.43 $4.00 $3.61 $3.33 $3.13 $3.12 $3.18 $3.25 $3.28
Lead ($0.84 / lb) $0.97 $1.09 $0.94 $0.97 $0.98 $1.00 $1.01 $1.00 $0.99
Nickel ($6.93 / lb) $9.91 $10.38 $7.95 $6.81 $7.93 $8.83 $9.08 $9.18 $9.36
Zinc ($0.98 / lb) $0.98 $1.00 $0.88 $0.87 $0.98 $1.07 $1.14 $1.17 $1.16
Gold ($1196 / oz) $1,226 $1,571 $1,668 $1,411 $1,279 $1,275 $1,296 $1,275 $1,282
Palladium ($815 / oz) $528 $733 $643 $725 $825 $864 $879 $878 $919
Platinum ($1212 / oz) $1,611 $1,719 $1,549 $1,485 $1,460 $1,450 $1,509 $1,528 $1,526
Silver ($16.09 / oz) $20.24 $35.29 $31.13 $23.82 $19.91 $19.70 $20.26 $20.34 $20.24
Uranium ($36.25 / lb) $45.97 $56.32 $48.97 $40.42 $34.51 $44.39 $51.20 $59.51 $64.71
Base metal prices are LME cash prices quoted in US$ per lb. Precious metal prices are London spot prices quoted in US$ per oz.
William Matlack
Scarsdale Equities LLC
Kitco, Dec 29th, 2014
Metal prices
• ¿Se terminó el ciclo de los altos precios de los
metales?
• ¿Quién maneja los precios…oferta vs. demanda o
percepción/especulación?
Volatile metal prices
Cost and margin
En 2013, de acuerdo con datos de la Comisión Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco), producir
una libra de cobre en el país (Chile) costó US$2,50, por sobre el promedio mundial
(US$2,38). Las cifras están medidas en dólares de cada año y corresponden al costo C3,
que incluye costo directo de caja más depreciación más intereses y costos indirectos y
deduce el crédito por venta de subproductos.
La tendencia al alza en costos en la minería chilena, no ha logrado detenerse del todo,
según grafica un reciente informe internacional sobre esta industria en Latinoamérica,
preparado por Scotiabank GBM. En su última estimación del cash cost C1 para el
segundo trimestre –sobre costos de producción, que incluye remuneraciones,
materiales, energía, servicios de terceros, gastos de refinación y ventas y créditos por
subproductos–, el conjunto de mineras del país (Chile) aumentaron en 12% este
indicador, pasando de US$ 1,68 la libra de cobre el tercer trimestre del año pasado, a
US$ 1,88.
Este nivel es mayor al que tienen en general los yacimientos de cobre en el mundo, que
se estiman estarán ubicadas en US$ 1,73 la libra para el segundo trimestre. Pero deja a
las operaciones nacionales (chilenas) muy lejanas al promedio en Perú, que llega a US$
1,27, según el documento. De todos modos, Peru no ha estado exento de esta
tendencia alcista. Entre los dos periodos analizados por el banco de inversión, su cash
cost creció 23%, mientras a nivel mundial fue de sólo un 7%.
Notas tomadas de artículos diversos de Mining Press de Junio 2014
Las compañías mineras de oro siguen vigilando muy de cerca el aumento de los costes de producción,
más concretamente en aquellas minas que llevan años de explotación y cuyas reservas más cercanas a la
superficie se van agotando. En el Informe de SNL Metals & Mining denominado “Estrategias para el
Cambio de las Reservas de Oro”, se hace notar como el principal de los problemas el aumento de los
costes medios de producción desde 560 dólares por onza en los 2000 hasta 2.300 dólares por onza en la
actualidad.
Las expectativas de crecimiento de los costes son aún mayores para 2014. El análisis se basa en una
muestra de 192 minas de oro con una capacidad de producción de 50.000 onzas anuales.
De forma sistemática, la media de tres años de los costes de capital de las minas está por encima de los
precios internacionales del oro. Desde 2006, los mineros se embarcaron en proyectos que en muchos
casos eran faraónicos y que, al final, han tenido que abandonar por falta de rentabilidad. Al calor de la
subida de los precios, las mineras diversificaron sus negocios afrontando subidas importantes en los
costes de extracción.
Para 2014, se espera un incremento del coste medio hasta 2.400 dólares por onza mientras que para
2015, este coste bajaría hasta los 1.900 dólares por onza. Con respecto a los costes operativos
directamente relacionados con la producción, desde 2004 se han incrementado en términos reales un
190% pasando a ser de 702 dólares por onza en 2013.
• ¿Estamos manejando adecuadamente los costos?
• ¿Hay un problema de productividad?
• ¿Cut-off y ley promedio apropiados?
• ¿Capex excesivos?
Costs increasing…margins reducing
Production
-
2
4
6
8
1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014
Gold Ounces
(millions)
Copper Tons
(millions)
Moving from the “gold rush” into a “copper boom”
1st PRODUCER OF GOLD IN LATIN AMERICA
AND 6th IN THE WORLD
3rd LARGEST WORLD’s PRODUCER OF COPPER
WILL SOON RECOVER ITS 2nd POSITION
WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE DIFFERENCE WITH CHILE
0
1
2
3
4
5
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019
Millionsoftonsofcopper
Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Moz
Alluvial Gold Other IOCG Skarn
Porphyry Mesothermal veins LS Epithermal HS Epithermal
6.7
7.3
6.6
3.7
actual forecast
MillionOuncesofGold
Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
Moz
Alluvial Gold Other IOCG
Skarn Porphyry Mesothermal veins
LS Epithermal HS Epithermal
6.7 6.5
4.1
5.5
actual forecast
-
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020
MillionsOzGold
Alluvial Gold Other Mesothermal veins
Skarn Porphyry LS Epithermal
HS Epithermal
6.7
5.9
5.3
5.5
5.2
forecast
(Estimated in May 2012)
actual
Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types
(Estimated in May 2014)
M. Cardozo et al, 2006
M. Cardozo et al, 2012 J. Acosta et al, 2014
M. Cardozo et al, 2008
Producción de Oro en el Perú
From: Acosta et al, May 2014
Estimate by May 2014
Improbable drop, traditional mines can
sustain up to 160-170 MM oz/year
Copper Mines and Projects in Peru
La Granja
El Galeno
Minas Conga
Río Blanco
Toromocho
Los Chancas
Las Bambas
QuechuaMina Justa
Quellaveco
Tía María
Antamina
Cerro Verde
Toquepala
Cuajone
Tintaya
Zafranal
Projects
1-10
10-50
50-200
200-500
Actual and Planned
Annual Production
Metric Tons of
Fine Copper X 1000
Mines
Cerro Corona
Michiquillay
Actual/PlannedAnnualProduction
MetricTonsofFineCopper
X1000
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
Magistral
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
Peruvian Copper Production 1998-2025MetricTonsofFineCopper(Millions)
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0 Río Blanco
Cañariaco
Michiquillay
Haquira
Zafranal
Los
Calatos
+Cuajone
MetricTonsofFineCopper(Millions)
actual forecast
Miocene Porphyry Belt
Eocene-Oligogocene Porphyry Belt
Paleocene-Eocene Porphyry Belt
Other type of deposits
Tía María
Mina Justa
Constancia
La Granja
Minas Conga
Los Chancas
El Galeno
Magistral
Quellaveco
+Cerro Verde
2.5
4.9
4.1
3.4
4.2
1.5
Toromocho
Las Bambas
Quechua
+Toquepala
2.2
Estimate by July 2014
Peru Copper Production and Yearly Growth Rates
(actual until 2013 + forecast until 2021)
Estimate by July 2015
Gold and Silver Content of Porphyry Deposits
PORPHYRY BELT PROJECT Au g/t Ag g/t Mo %
Cerro Corona 1.00
Minas Conga 0.71 2.05
Galeno 0.12 2.50 0.014
Michiquillay 0.05-0.10 2.00-4.00 0.01-0.02
La Granja 0.04 3.70
Magistral 0.060
Cañariaco 0.06 1.6
La Arena 0.27 0.70 0.004
Toromocho 6.90
Antamina 10.3 0.021
Las Bambas 0.08 4.74 0.018
Cotabambas 0.23 2.74 0.001
Antapaccay 0.13 1.51 0.010
Los Chancas 0.04 0.040
Antilla 0.009
Haquira 0.04 1.79 0.001
Constancia 0.05 3.60 0.011
Los Calatos 0.021
Cuajone 0.03 3.10 0.020
Toquepala 0.03 2.30 0.020
Quellaveco 2.19 0.023
Cerro Verde 1.46 0.010
Miocene N-Peru
Eocene-Oligocene Apurimac
Miocene Central Peru
Paleocene SW-Peru
Projected yearly production from
pophyries/skarns of the 3 main copper
porphyry belts by 2021 ?
Gold
(millions of
ounces)
Silver
(millions of
ounces)
Molybdenum
(thousands of
tons)
1.6 40 40 -50
% of total gold and silver by 2021 ? 30% 25% 100%
Historic Cumulative Copper
Production in Peru
Metallogenic belts
5 MMT
18%
2 MMT
7%
16 MMT
57%
Antamina
4.1 MMT
Toquepala
6.7 MMT
Tintaya
2.0 MMTMiocene porphyry belt
Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt
Paleocene porphyry belt
Total Production in Peru
28 MMT (100%)
Production from main porphyry belts
23 MMT (82%)
Other Cu belts: 2 MMT (7%)
Other non-Cu belts: 3 MMT (11%)
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
Copper Resources and Reserves
in the Main Porphyry Belts
in Peru
85 MMT
39%
44 MMT
20%
63 MMT
29%
Total reported resources in Peru
218 MMT (100%)
Resources from porphyry belts
192 MMT (88%)
Other Cu belts: 11 MMT (5%)
Other non-Cu belts: 15 MMT (7%)
Metallogenic belts
Miocene porphyry belt
Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt
Paleocene porphyry belt
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
• Gold production decreasing. Extracted resources are not being replace.
Very few significant discoveries lately
• Silver will increase production levels if copper porphyries are developed
• Zinc and lead will continue increasing moderately. New projects
required to accelerate development
• Porphyry copper producers contribute significantly to Au, Ag and Mo
production
• Copper potential is one of the largest in the world
• Copper developments are being delayed due to social and political
issues
• Uncertainty increasing, can we really get up to 5 million tonnes of Cu
production in the next 8-10 years?
• Chile taking advantage: Long-term view and policy, sustained technical
and commercial/market research
• Peru + Chile could produce 57% (>13 tons) of world’s copper
Mineral Production
Peru and Chile Copper Production to 2021
(actual + forecast)
Peru + Chile
13m
57%
Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
Exploration
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Worldwide Exploration
vs. Relative Metals Price
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Worldwide Exploration Budgets by Target
(as percent of annual total)
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Worldwide Base Metals Exploration by Target
(as percent of annual total)
© SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012
Worldwide Exploration by Stage
(as percent of annual total) Own projection
(dashed lines)
Not quantitative,
rough tendencies
Exploration expenditures: World
by Commodity : 1975-2013 Major increase in
spend on Bulk
Minerals
Percentage of total spend Other - Bulk 1%
100%
Coal
Iron Ore80%
Other – Non Bulk
60%
40% Gold continues
to be the main
target20%
0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based on
data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 5
11%
14%
Diamonds
12%
2%
Base Metals 4%
(Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb)
24%
Gold
33%
Inversión en exploración a nivel mundial
Exploration expenditures:
by Region : 1975-2013
World China spends more
on exploration than
any other country in
the World
Percentage of total spend
100% 2%
7%
17%
2%
15%
80%
60%
6%
22%40%
6%
11%20%
12%
0% Can+USA+Aust
market share has
halved in the last 2
decades
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based
on data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG
Note: Includes spend on Bulk Minerals
“Rest of World” refers to, Mongolia, Middle East and
South West Asia (including India and Pakistan)
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 6
Rest of World
FSU + E Europe
China
Western Europe
Africa
Pacific / SE Asia
Latin America
USA
Canada
Australia
120
293 257
357
570
720
588 591
757
1,025
683
559
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
6
6
53
5
6
6
54
6
7
7
4.9% 7.7% 4.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 4.9% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.9%
Peru
Exploration Investment
Worldwide
% of Worldwide
Investment
Peru WW Ranking
Investment US$ Million
2,440
3,790
5,290
7,930
11,330
14,474
8,400
12,100
18,158
21,500
15,200
11,400
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Investment US$ Million
Annual Exploration Budgets by Target 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Copper 211.7 316.2 351.5 303.7 252.4
Gold 196.8 238.2 445.3 205.5 147.3
Other 87.3 115.7 146.1 115.5 109.2
Zinc-Lead 95.3 87.1 82.4 58.2 50
Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Grassroots 214.9 216.8 237.1 234.7 188.4
Late Stage & Feasibility 263.2 411.2 567.8 285.4 186
Minesite 113 129.2 220.4 162.8 184.5
Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Major 226.3 399.3 628.1 303.7 370.7
Intermediate 130.7 83.9 105.3 205.5 55.6
Junior 234.1 274 291.9 173.7 132.6
Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Target 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Copper 35.8% 53.5% 59.5% 51.4% 42.7%
Gold 33.3% 40.3% 75.3% 34.8% 24.9%
Other 14.8% 19.6% 24.7% 19.5% 18.5%
Zinc-Lead 16.1% 14.7% 13.9% 9.8% 8.5%
Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Grassroots 36.4% 36.7% 40.1% 39.7% 31.9%
Late Stage & Feasibility 44.5% 69.6% 96.1% 48.3% 31.5%
Minesite 19.1% 21.9% 37.3% 27.5% 31.2%
Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9
Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Major 38.3% 67.6% 106.3% 51.4% 62.7%
Intermediate 22.1% 14.2% 17.8% 34.8% 9.4%
Junior 39.6% 46.4% 49.4% 29.4% 22.4%
Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9
Inversión en exploración en el Perú
Isac Burstein, Top Mining Junior, Nov 2004, Basado en cifras de SNL Metals Economics Group
Peru enjoys a very dynamic exploration
community and efficient mining cadastre
Mineral Discoveries
Number of significant discoveries
Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013
made
Number of
Discoveries
150
100
50
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
Giant >6 Moz Au, >125 kt U3O8, >1 Mt Ni, >5 Mt Cu equiv
Major >1 Moz Au, >25 kt U3O8, > 100 kt Ni, >1 Mt Cu equiv
Moderate >0.1 Moz Au, >5 kt U3O8, >10 kt Ni, >0.1 Mt Cu-equiv Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 8
Moderate Discoveries
Major Discoveries
Giant Discoveries
Number of significant discoveries made
Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries On average 60-70
150
made each year in
Need to adjust for the
fact that it takes time to
report a discovery and100
drill it out
50
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 9
discoveries are
the World
Estimated Unreported Discoveries
Moderate Discoveries
Major Discoveries
Giant Discoveries
Number of discoveries made by Commodity
Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
150 288
130
701
1366
12%
5%
28%
55%
100
2485 100%
50
Over half of the
discoveries were
GOLD
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 10
Estimated
Other
Uranium
Base Metals
Gold
Number of discoveries made by Company Type
Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
150
100
50
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries
Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in FSU, Eastern Europe and China
Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 11
Estimated
Unknown
Other
State Owned Co
Prospectors
Junior Companies
Moderate Producers
Major Companies
Percentage of discoveries made by Company Type
Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013
Number of
Discoveries
100%
Junior Companies now
account for 50-60% of all
discoveries in the
Western World
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries
Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in the FSU, Eastern Europe and China
Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 12
Other
State Owned Co
Prospectors
Junior Companies
Moderate Producers
Major Companies
Until recently discovery rate moved in-line
with exploration expenditures
Non-Bulk exploration spend and discoveries World: 1975-2013
Huge increase in spend,
but no corresponding
Number 2013 US$ Billion
$30150
ation
100 $20
Number of
Discovery performance
has been affected by
higher input costs
(labour, drilling and
admin).
50 $10
Is partly offset by shift to
Brownfield Exploration
(but this delivers smaller-
sized discoveries)
0 $0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Note: Based on Moderate, Major and Giant discoveries.
Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries and expenditures.
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 14
increase in the number of
discoveries Explor
Spend
Discoveri es
Est
Average Cost per discovery (2013 US$m)
GOLD UnUniitt didiscscoovvereryy
ccoosststs
WeightedAverage for ~$150m hahavvee dodoubublleded iinn
thethe
2000-2009 = $77m
WeightedAverage for llasastt dedeccadeade
1980-89 = $44m Estimated
IfIf yyoourur eexplxploorraatiotionn
~$180m bubudgdgeett iiss $5$5mm thenthen
BASE METALS thethe ooddddss ooff mmakiakingng
aa ((mmoodedesst)t) didiscscoovvereryy
WeightedAverage for
WeightedAverage for 2000-2009= $64m iinn aa ggiivvenen yyeaearr
araree
1980-89 = $23m
llessess thanthan
11 iinn 3030
Estimated
Exploration is a high-
activity
Discovery costs are rising
Unit cost per for a moderate-sized Gold or Base Metal discovery in the World
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
Note: Discoveries are for deposits >0.1 Moz Au or >0.1 Mt Cu-eq
Data from 2005 onwards have been adjusted for unreported deposits
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 15
Significant
Saskatchewan
(Uranium)
discoveries in the World: 2004-2013
Carparthian Belt
Alaska/Yukon Northern
Ontario
China & Far
East Russia
SW USA/ Mexico
West Africa Central AfricaLatin America
Base
Au Metal U O
Australia
Other3 8
Giant
Major
Moderate
Ten current
“Hot Spots”
N = 605
605 deposits
found in the last
decade
Note: Excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries.
Note: “Moderate” >100koz Au, >10kt Ni, >100Kt Cu equiv, 250kt Zn+Pb, >5kt U3O8
“Major” >1Moz Au, >100kt Ni, >1Mt Cu equiv, 2.5Mt Zn+Pb, >25kt U3O8
“Giant” >6Moz Au, >1Mt Ni, >5Mt Cu equiv, 12Mt Zn+Pb, >125kt U3O8 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 21
Junior Financing
Cash Reserves and Expenditures have dropped dramatically
MEDIAN Australian Junior Exploration Company : 1998-June 2014
During a downturn,
“in-field” exploration &
development
expenditures are cut the
most
2013 A$ Million pa
Cash Reserves
Cash
Reserves
are at an
all-time low
Exploration
& Development
Admin
costs tend
to be
“fixed”
Administration
Net Other
Note: Survey based on a sample of 125 junior exploration companies listed on the ASX between1998-2014
“Net Other” includes productionand other costs less interest income, mine revenue,
GovernmentAssistance and R&D tax credits
Quarterly spend data has been multiplied by 4x to produce an annualisedspend rate
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
based on Quarterly Reports to the ASX
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 23
The lack of cash is of main concern to those
junior companies with low market caps
Compnaies can always raise cash by
issuing new shares ….. but
that’sCash Reserves (A$ Million) difficult if the market cap
is
low
There are some
companies where
Mkt Cap < Cash !!
Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014
Note: Cash reserves (as at March-June 2014) for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers.
Excludes companies with annual revenues >A$1m.
Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 25
Junior Explorers with very small market-caps
are at most risk of failing
Cumulative Number
100%
Other Exchanges
TSX/TSE
ASX
80%
60%
Mkt Cap ASX TSX Other
40%
Depending on
the
20%
0%
$0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20
Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014
Note: Based on an analysis for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers - 1258 on the TSE/TSX, 589 on the ASX
and 133 on other exchanges(such as the CSE, NYSE, AIM, NEC, NZE,OTC and NEC and Pink Sheets).
Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90
Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014
MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 26
Other Exchange
Mkt
<A$0.5m 1% 12% 20%
jurisdiction 5-30% of
Juniors are at risk of
<A$1m 5% 26% 30%
<$A$2m 17% 42% 48%
going under
Mining & Exploration Challenges
• Urgently adopt a long-term approach to the mining industry
• Mining will still be for several decades a solid base for the economic
development of the country
• Guarantee the implementation of future copper producers in Peru
• Increase investment in mineral exploration to expand reserves and resources
and discovery of new deposits.
• Promoting mineral exploration is essential to increase both metal production
and long-term resources
• Ensure that initial exploration projects can become mining operations
• Both financial and technical incentives are required
• Excessive social-environmental barriers have to be removed to allow the
development of a modern, competitive, responsible and sustainable mining
industry
• Despite of the effort of the government and the MINEM to reduce
unnecessary environmental bureaucracy, other environmental instances
have not changed their anti-mining attitude
• Companies, INGEMMET and academia urgently need to joint efforts for a
sound scientific and technical development of the mining industry
• Technical improvements are needed to promote exploration:
– INGEMMET offers 1:100,000 and 1:50,000 scale regional maps covering the
whole of the country and most of the territory is also covered by drainage
geochemical sampling.
– Regional geophysical surveys (magnetic and radiometric) are insufficient.
– As exploration matures, the need to improve, innovate and implement new
geophysical exploration methods will increase.
– Radiometric age data is extensive, but still needs to be expanded.
– Isotopic studies useful to distinguish most productive mineralized systems and
to identify mineralization sources are still very limited.
– Studies of magmatic arcs related to mineralized systems are insufficient.
Mining & Exploration Challenges

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Minería peruana: situación actual y perspectivas de producción de cobre y oro

  • 1. Minería y exploración en Perú: situación y perspectivas M. Cardozo Febrero 05, 2015 Jueves Minero Instituto de Ingenieros de Minas del Perú
  • 2. • Metal prices • Cost and margin • Production • Exploration • Mineral discoveries • Junior financing Content
  • 4. $1238 $1379 $1238 $1142 $1265 Since November 2014, oil price drops offsetting US Dollar influence military and political concerns about Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2014. US economic recovery leds to US Dollar strenghtening $16.24 $15.71 Precios del Oro y la Plata $18.25 $17.25
  • 7. Recent and Forecast Commodity Prices Cash Price (26-Dec- 14) 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E 2017E 2018E Aluminum ($0.93 / lb) $0.99 $1.09 $0.92 $0.84 $0.87 $0.93 $0.98 $1.03 $1.13 Copper ($2.89 / lb) $3.43 $4.00 $3.61 $3.33 $3.13 $3.12 $3.18 $3.25 $3.28 Lead ($0.84 / lb) $0.97 $1.09 $0.94 $0.97 $0.98 $1.00 $1.01 $1.00 $0.99 Nickel ($6.93 / lb) $9.91 $10.38 $7.95 $6.81 $7.93 $8.83 $9.08 $9.18 $9.36 Zinc ($0.98 / lb) $0.98 $1.00 $0.88 $0.87 $0.98 $1.07 $1.14 $1.17 $1.16 Gold ($1196 / oz) $1,226 $1,571 $1,668 $1,411 $1,279 $1,275 $1,296 $1,275 $1,282 Palladium ($815 / oz) $528 $733 $643 $725 $825 $864 $879 $878 $919 Platinum ($1212 / oz) $1,611 $1,719 $1,549 $1,485 $1,460 $1,450 $1,509 $1,528 $1,526 Silver ($16.09 / oz) $20.24 $35.29 $31.13 $23.82 $19.91 $19.70 $20.26 $20.34 $20.24 Uranium ($36.25 / lb) $45.97 $56.32 $48.97 $40.42 $34.51 $44.39 $51.20 $59.51 $64.71 Base metal prices are LME cash prices quoted in US$ per lb. Precious metal prices are London spot prices quoted in US$ per oz. William Matlack Scarsdale Equities LLC Kitco, Dec 29th, 2014 Metal prices
  • 8. • ¿Se terminó el ciclo de los altos precios de los metales? • ¿Quién maneja los precios…oferta vs. demanda o percepción/especulación? Volatile metal prices
  • 10.
  • 11. En 2013, de acuerdo con datos de la Comisión Chilena del Cobre (Cochilco), producir una libra de cobre en el país (Chile) costó US$2,50, por sobre el promedio mundial (US$2,38). Las cifras están medidas en dólares de cada año y corresponden al costo C3, que incluye costo directo de caja más depreciación más intereses y costos indirectos y deduce el crédito por venta de subproductos. La tendencia al alza en costos en la minería chilena, no ha logrado detenerse del todo, según grafica un reciente informe internacional sobre esta industria en Latinoamérica, preparado por Scotiabank GBM. En su última estimación del cash cost C1 para el segundo trimestre –sobre costos de producción, que incluye remuneraciones, materiales, energía, servicios de terceros, gastos de refinación y ventas y créditos por subproductos–, el conjunto de mineras del país (Chile) aumentaron en 12% este indicador, pasando de US$ 1,68 la libra de cobre el tercer trimestre del año pasado, a US$ 1,88. Este nivel es mayor al que tienen en general los yacimientos de cobre en el mundo, que se estiman estarán ubicadas en US$ 1,73 la libra para el segundo trimestre. Pero deja a las operaciones nacionales (chilenas) muy lejanas al promedio en Perú, que llega a US$ 1,27, según el documento. De todos modos, Peru no ha estado exento de esta tendencia alcista. Entre los dos periodos analizados por el banco de inversión, su cash cost creció 23%, mientras a nivel mundial fue de sólo un 7%. Notas tomadas de artículos diversos de Mining Press de Junio 2014
  • 12. Las compañías mineras de oro siguen vigilando muy de cerca el aumento de los costes de producción, más concretamente en aquellas minas que llevan años de explotación y cuyas reservas más cercanas a la superficie se van agotando. En el Informe de SNL Metals & Mining denominado “Estrategias para el Cambio de las Reservas de Oro”, se hace notar como el principal de los problemas el aumento de los costes medios de producción desde 560 dólares por onza en los 2000 hasta 2.300 dólares por onza en la actualidad. Las expectativas de crecimiento de los costes son aún mayores para 2014. El análisis se basa en una muestra de 192 minas de oro con una capacidad de producción de 50.000 onzas anuales.
  • 13. De forma sistemática, la media de tres años de los costes de capital de las minas está por encima de los precios internacionales del oro. Desde 2006, los mineros se embarcaron en proyectos que en muchos casos eran faraónicos y que, al final, han tenido que abandonar por falta de rentabilidad. Al calor de la subida de los precios, las mineras diversificaron sus negocios afrontando subidas importantes en los costes de extracción. Para 2014, se espera un incremento del coste medio hasta 2.400 dólares por onza mientras que para 2015, este coste bajaría hasta los 1.900 dólares por onza. Con respecto a los costes operativos directamente relacionados con la producción, desde 2004 se han incrementado en términos reales un 190% pasando a ser de 702 dólares por onza en 2013.
  • 14. • ¿Estamos manejando adecuadamente los costos? • ¿Hay un problema de productividad? • ¿Cut-off y ley promedio apropiados? • ¿Capex excesivos? Costs increasing…margins reducing
  • 16. - 2 4 6 8 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010 2014 Gold Ounces (millions) Copper Tons (millions) Moving from the “gold rush” into a “copper boom” 1st PRODUCER OF GOLD IN LATIN AMERICA AND 6th IN THE WORLD 3rd LARGEST WORLD’s PRODUCER OF COPPER WILL SOON RECOVER ITS 2nd POSITION WILL DRASTICALLY REDUCE DIFFERENCE WITH CHILE 0 1 2 3 4 5 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 Millionsoftonsofcopper
  • 17. Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Moz Alluvial Gold Other IOCG Skarn Porphyry Mesothermal veins LS Epithermal HS Epithermal 6.7 7.3 6.6 3.7 actual forecast MillionOuncesofGold Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 Moz Alluvial Gold Other IOCG Skarn Porphyry Mesothermal veins LS Epithermal HS Epithermal 6.7 6.5 4.1 5.5 actual forecast - 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 MillionsOzGold Alluvial Gold Other Mesothermal veins Skarn Porphyry LS Epithermal HS Epithermal 6.7 5.9 5.3 5.5 5.2 forecast (Estimated in May 2012) actual Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types Peruvian Gold Production by Deposit Types (Estimated in May 2014) M. Cardozo et al, 2006 M. Cardozo et al, 2012 J. Acosta et al, 2014 M. Cardozo et al, 2008 Producción de Oro en el Perú
  • 18. From: Acosta et al, May 2014 Estimate by May 2014 Improbable drop, traditional mines can sustain up to 160-170 MM oz/year
  • 19. Copper Mines and Projects in Peru La Granja El Galeno Minas Conga Río Blanco Toromocho Los Chancas Las Bambas QuechuaMina Justa Quellaveco Tía María Antamina Cerro Verde Toquepala Cuajone Tintaya Zafranal Projects 1-10 10-50 50-200 200-500 Actual and Planned Annual Production Metric Tons of Fine Copper X 1000 Mines Cerro Corona Michiquillay Actual/PlannedAnnualProduction MetricTonsofFineCopper X1000 0 100 200 300 400 500 600 Magistral Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
  • 20. Peruvian Copper Production 1998-2025MetricTonsofFineCopper(Millions) 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0 6.0 Río Blanco Cañariaco Michiquillay Haquira Zafranal Los Calatos +Cuajone MetricTonsofFineCopper(Millions) actual forecast Miocene Porphyry Belt Eocene-Oligogocene Porphyry Belt Paleocene-Eocene Porphyry Belt Other type of deposits Tía María Mina Justa Constancia La Granja Minas Conga Los Chancas El Galeno Magistral Quellaveco +Cerro Verde 2.5 4.9 4.1 3.4 4.2 1.5 Toromocho Las Bambas Quechua +Toquepala 2.2 Estimate by July 2014
  • 21. Peru Copper Production and Yearly Growth Rates (actual until 2013 + forecast until 2021) Estimate by July 2015
  • 22. Gold and Silver Content of Porphyry Deposits PORPHYRY BELT PROJECT Au g/t Ag g/t Mo % Cerro Corona 1.00 Minas Conga 0.71 2.05 Galeno 0.12 2.50 0.014 Michiquillay 0.05-0.10 2.00-4.00 0.01-0.02 La Granja 0.04 3.70 Magistral 0.060 Cañariaco 0.06 1.6 La Arena 0.27 0.70 0.004 Toromocho 6.90 Antamina 10.3 0.021 Las Bambas 0.08 4.74 0.018 Cotabambas 0.23 2.74 0.001 Antapaccay 0.13 1.51 0.010 Los Chancas 0.04 0.040 Antilla 0.009 Haquira 0.04 1.79 0.001 Constancia 0.05 3.60 0.011 Los Calatos 0.021 Cuajone 0.03 3.10 0.020 Toquepala 0.03 2.30 0.020 Quellaveco 2.19 0.023 Cerro Verde 1.46 0.010 Miocene N-Peru Eocene-Oligocene Apurimac Miocene Central Peru Paleocene SW-Peru Projected yearly production from pophyries/skarns of the 3 main copper porphyry belts by 2021 ? Gold (millions of ounces) Silver (millions of ounces) Molybdenum (thousands of tons) 1.6 40 40 -50 % of total gold and silver by 2021 ? 30% 25% 100%
  • 23. Historic Cumulative Copper Production in Peru Metallogenic belts 5 MMT 18% 2 MMT 7% 16 MMT 57% Antamina 4.1 MMT Toquepala 6.7 MMT Tintaya 2.0 MMTMiocene porphyry belt Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt Paleocene porphyry belt Total Production in Peru 28 MMT (100%) Production from main porphyry belts 23 MMT (82%) Other Cu belts: 2 MMT (7%) Other non-Cu belts: 3 MMT (11%) Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
  • 24. Copper Resources and Reserves in the Main Porphyry Belts in Peru 85 MMT 39% 44 MMT 20% 63 MMT 29% Total reported resources in Peru 218 MMT (100%) Resources from porphyry belts 192 MMT (88%) Other Cu belts: 11 MMT (5%) Other non-Cu belts: 15 MMT (7%) Metallogenic belts Miocene porphyry belt Eocene-oligocene porphyry belt Paleocene porphyry belt Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
  • 25. • Gold production decreasing. Extracted resources are not being replace. Very few significant discoveries lately • Silver will increase production levels if copper porphyries are developed • Zinc and lead will continue increasing moderately. New projects required to accelerate development • Porphyry copper producers contribute significantly to Au, Ag and Mo production • Copper potential is one of the largest in the world • Copper developments are being delayed due to social and political issues • Uncertainty increasing, can we really get up to 5 million tonnes of Cu production in the next 8-10 years? • Chile taking advantage: Long-term view and policy, sustained technical and commercial/market research • Peru + Chile could produce 57% (>13 tons) of world’s copper Mineral Production
  • 26. Peru and Chile Copper Production to 2021 (actual + forecast) Peru + Chile 13m 57% Source: Copper in Peru: Facts and challenges, J. Acosta, A. Bustamante & Miguel Cardozo, Perumin 2013
  • 28. © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Worldwide Exploration vs. Relative Metals Price
  • 29. © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Worldwide Exploration Budgets by Target (as percent of annual total)
  • 30. © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Worldwide Base Metals Exploration by Target (as percent of annual total)
  • 31. © SNL Metals Economics Group, 2012 Worldwide Exploration by Stage (as percent of annual total) Own projection (dashed lines) Not quantitative, rough tendencies
  • 32. Exploration expenditures: World by Commodity : 1975-2013 Major increase in spend on Bulk Minerals Percentage of total spend Other - Bulk 1% 100% Coal Iron Ore80% Other – Non Bulk 60% 40% Gold continues to be the main target20% 0% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based on data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 5 11% 14% Diamonds 12% 2% Base Metals 4% (Cu, Ni, Zn, Pb) 24% Gold 33%
  • 33. Inversión en exploración a nivel mundial
  • 34. Exploration expenditures: by Region : 1975-2013 World China spends more on exploration than any other country in the World Percentage of total spend 100% 2% 7% 17% 2% 15% 80% 60% 6% 22%40% 6% 11%20% 12% 0% Can+USA+Aust market share has halved in the last 2 decades 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Sources: MinEx Consulting estimates © September 2014, based on data from ABS, NRCan, MLR (China), OECD and SNL MEG Note: Includes spend on Bulk Minerals “Rest of World” refers to, Mongolia, Middle East and South West Asia (including India and Pakistan) MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 6 Rest of World FSU + E Europe China Western Europe Africa Pacific / SE Asia Latin America USA Canada Australia
  • 35. 120 293 257 357 570 720 588 591 757 1,025 683 559 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 6 6 53 5 6 6 54 6 7 7 4.9% 7.7% 4.9% 4.5% 5.0% 5.0% 7.0% 4.9% 4.2% 4.8% 4.5% 4.9% Peru Exploration Investment Worldwide % of Worldwide Investment Peru WW Ranking Investment US$ Million 2,440 3,790 5,290 7,930 11,330 14,474 8,400 12,100 18,158 21,500 15,200 11,400 - 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Investment US$ Million
  • 36. Annual Exploration Budgets by Target 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Copper 211.7 316.2 351.5 303.7 252.4 Gold 196.8 238.2 445.3 205.5 147.3 Other 87.3 115.7 146.1 115.5 109.2 Zinc-Lead 95.3 87.1 82.4 58.2 50 Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Grassroots 214.9 216.8 237.1 234.7 188.4 Late Stage & Feasibility 263.2 411.2 567.8 285.4 186 Minesite 113 129.2 220.4 162.8 184.5 Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Major 226.3 399.3 628.1 303.7 370.7 Intermediate 130.7 83.9 105.3 205.5 55.6 Junior 234.1 274 291.9 173.7 132.6 Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Target 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Copper 35.8% 53.5% 59.5% 51.4% 42.7% Gold 33.3% 40.3% 75.3% 34.8% 24.9% Other 14.8% 19.6% 24.7% 19.5% 18.5% Zinc-Lead 16.1% 14.7% 13.9% 9.8% 8.5% Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Stage 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Grassroots 36.4% 36.7% 40.1% 39.7% 31.9% Late Stage & Feasibility 44.5% 69.6% 96.1% 48.3% 31.5% Minesite 19.1% 21.9% 37.3% 27.5% 31.2% Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9 Annual Exploration Budgets by Company Type 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Major 38.3% 67.6% 106.3% 51.4% 62.7% Intermediate 22.1% 14.2% 17.8% 34.8% 9.4% Junior 39.6% 46.4% 49.4% 29.4% 22.4% Total 591.1 757.2 1,025.30 682.9 558.9 Inversión en exploración en el Perú Isac Burstein, Top Mining Junior, Nov 2004, Basado en cifras de SNL Metals Economics Group
  • 37. Peru enjoys a very dynamic exploration community and efficient mining cadastre
  • 39. Number of significant discoveries Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013 made Number of Discoveries 150 100 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Giant >6 Moz Au, >125 kt U3O8, >1 Mt Ni, >5 Mt Cu equiv Major >1 Moz Au, >25 kt U3O8, > 100 kt Ni, >1 Mt Cu equiv Moderate >0.1 Moz Au, >5 kt U3O8, >10 kt Ni, >0.1 Mt Cu-equiv Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 8 Moderate Discoveries Major Discoveries Giant Discoveries
  • 40. Number of significant discoveries made Non-Bulk discoveries World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries On average 60-70 150 made each year in Need to adjust for the fact that it takes time to report a discovery and100 drill it out 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 9 discoveries are the World Estimated Unreported Discoveries Moderate Discoveries Major Discoveries Giant Discoveries
  • 41. Number of discoveries made by Commodity Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries 150 288 130 701 1366 12% 5% 28% 55% 100 2485 100% 50 Over half of the discoveries were GOLD 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 10 Estimated Other Uranium Base Metals Gold
  • 42. Number of discoveries made by Company Type Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries 150 100 50 0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in FSU, Eastern Europe and China Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 11 Estimated Unknown Other State Owned Co Prospectors Junior Companies Moderate Producers Major Companies
  • 43. Percentage of discoveries made by Company Type Moderate+Major+Giant discoveries in the Western World: 1975-2013 Number of Discoveries 100% Junior Companies now account for 50-60% of all discoveries in the Western World 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Figures are adjusted for shared discoveries Western World only. Excludes discoveries made in the FSU, Eastern Europe and China Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 12 Other State Owned Co Prospectors Junior Companies Moderate Producers Major Companies
  • 44. Until recently discovery rate moved in-line with exploration expenditures Non-Bulk exploration spend and discoveries World: 1975-2013 Huge increase in spend, but no corresponding Number 2013 US$ Billion $30150 ation 100 $20 Number of Discovery performance has been affected by higher input costs (labour, drilling and admin). 50 $10 Is partly offset by shift to Brownfield Exploration (but this delivers smaller- sized discoveries) 0 $0 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Note: Based on Moderate, Major and Giant discoveries. Excludes satellite deposits within existing Camps. Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014Also excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries and expenditures. MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 14 increase in the number of discoveries Explor Spend Discoveri es Est
  • 45. Average Cost per discovery (2013 US$m) GOLD UnUniitt didiscscoovvereryy ccoosststs WeightedAverage for ~$150m hahavvee dodoubublleded iinn thethe 2000-2009 = $77m WeightedAverage for llasastt dedeccadeade 1980-89 = $44m Estimated IfIf yyoourur eexplxploorraatiotionn ~$180m bubudgdgeett iiss $5$5mm thenthen BASE METALS thethe ooddddss ooff mmakiakingng aa ((mmoodedesst)t) didiscscoovvereryy WeightedAverage for WeightedAverage for 2000-2009= $64m iinn aa ggiivvenen yyeaearr araree 1980-89 = $23m llessess thanthan 11 iinn 3030 Estimated Exploration is a high- activity Discovery costs are rising Unit cost per for a moderate-sized Gold or Base Metal discovery in the World Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 Note: Discoveries are for deposits >0.1 Moz Au or >0.1 Mt Cu-eq Data from 2005 onwards have been adjusted for unreported deposits MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 15
  • 46. Significant Saskatchewan (Uranium) discoveries in the World: 2004-2013 Carparthian Belt Alaska/Yukon Northern Ontario China & Far East Russia SW USA/ Mexico West Africa Central AfricaLatin America Base Au Metal U O Australia Other3 8 Giant Major Moderate Ten current “Hot Spots” N = 605 605 deposits found in the last decade Note: Excludes Bulk Mineral discoveries. Note: “Moderate” >100koz Au, >10kt Ni, >100Kt Cu equiv, 250kt Zn+Pb, >5kt U3O8 “Major” >1Moz Au, >100kt Ni, >1Mt Cu equiv, 2.5Mt Zn+Pb, >25kt U3O8 “Giant” >6Moz Au, >1Mt Ni, >5Mt Cu equiv, 12Mt Zn+Pb, >125kt U3O8 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 21
  • 48. Cash Reserves and Expenditures have dropped dramatically MEDIAN Australian Junior Exploration Company : 1998-June 2014 During a downturn, “in-field” exploration & development expenditures are cut the most 2013 A$ Million pa Cash Reserves Cash Reserves are at an all-time low Exploration & Development Admin costs tend to be “fixed” Administration Net Other Note: Survey based on a sample of 125 junior exploration companies listed on the ASX between1998-2014 “Net Other” includes productionand other costs less interest income, mine revenue, GovernmentAssistance and R&D tax credits Quarterly spend data has been multiplied by 4x to produce an annualisedspend rate Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 based on Quarterly Reports to the ASX MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 23
  • 49. The lack of cash is of main concern to those junior companies with low market caps Compnaies can always raise cash by issuing new shares ….. but that’sCash Reserves (A$ Million) difficult if the market cap is low There are some companies where Mkt Cap < Cash !! Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014 Note: Cash reserves (as at March-June 2014) for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers. Excludes companies with annual revenues >A$1m. Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 25
  • 50. Junior Explorers with very small market-caps are at most risk of failing Cumulative Number 100% Other Exchanges TSX/TSE ASX 80% 60% Mkt Cap ASX TSX Other 40% Depending on the 20% 0% $0 $2 $4 $6 $8 $10 $12 $14 $16 $18 $20 Market Cap (A$ Million) as at 14 Sept 2014 Note: Based on an analysis for 1980 publicly listed Junior Explorers - 1258 on the TSE/TSX, 589 on the ASX and 133 on other exchanges(such as the CSE, NYSE, AIM, NEC, NZE,OTC and NEC and Pink Sheets). Based on ExRate of A$1.00 = C$1.00 = US$0.90 Source: MinEx Consulting © September 2014 MinEx Consulting Strategic advice on mineral economics & exploration 26 Other Exchange Mkt <A$0.5m 1% 12% 20% jurisdiction 5-30% of Juniors are at risk of <A$1m 5% 26% 30% <$A$2m 17% 42% 48% going under
  • 51. Mining & Exploration Challenges • Urgently adopt a long-term approach to the mining industry • Mining will still be for several decades a solid base for the economic development of the country • Guarantee the implementation of future copper producers in Peru • Increase investment in mineral exploration to expand reserves and resources and discovery of new deposits. • Promoting mineral exploration is essential to increase both metal production and long-term resources • Ensure that initial exploration projects can become mining operations • Both financial and technical incentives are required • Excessive social-environmental barriers have to be removed to allow the development of a modern, competitive, responsible and sustainable mining industry
  • 52. • Despite of the effort of the government and the MINEM to reduce unnecessary environmental bureaucracy, other environmental instances have not changed their anti-mining attitude • Companies, INGEMMET and academia urgently need to joint efforts for a sound scientific and technical development of the mining industry • Technical improvements are needed to promote exploration: – INGEMMET offers 1:100,000 and 1:50,000 scale regional maps covering the whole of the country and most of the territory is also covered by drainage geochemical sampling. – Regional geophysical surveys (magnetic and radiometric) are insufficient. – As exploration matures, the need to improve, innovate and implement new geophysical exploration methods will increase. – Radiometric age data is extensive, but still needs to be expanded. – Isotopic studies useful to distinguish most productive mineralized systems and to identify mineralization sources are still very limited. – Studies of magmatic arcs related to mineralized systems are insufficient. Mining & Exploration Challenges