presentation given at VNO-HCSS conference on Raw Materials in an era of Geopolitics.

1. Raw Materials and (food) security: a need for
information and analysis (intelligence) ?
The Hague, January 2015Krijn J. Poppe
with thanks to Thom Achterbosch and Koen Boone

2. Wageningen UR - For the quality of life
Plant
Sciences
Group
Animal
Sciences
Group
Agro-
technology
and Food
Sciences
Group
Environ-
mental
Sciences
Group
Social
Sciences
Group
Wageningen University Department of Social Sciences
Research Institutes (DLO) LEI
Experimental Research and consultancy CDI

3. National States
Many actors
Coope-
rative
Non
coope-
rative
Multipolair
• Power blocks
• Economic and politcal
competition
• Protectionism
Fragmentation
•Stagnating globalisation
•Insecure society
•Identity first
Multilateral
• Strong west and upcoming BRICs
• Global governance reformed
• Globalisation continues
Network
• Non-polair world order
• Global market economy and civil
society
• Unpredictable
Four scenarios on Scarcity and Transition
3© De Ruijter Strategie
Food
• Every block (EU. VS, China etc.) handles
scarcity differently
• Management of transitions
• No food scarcity in Europe, water scarcity
in Southern Europe only
• No real change in food system in Europe,
but crises management : active control
policy like food stocks, water buffers for
periods of disruption and drought
• Water transport in Europe from North to
South (depending on costs and benefits)
• European policies are needed, steering
with Common Agricultural Policy – the
return of Mansholt to increase production
to self sufficiency levels
• Consumption of meat will be discouraged

4. The Global Resource Nexus
Food /
Biomass
Land Water
EnergyMinerals

5. Lessons from political science
 European thinking is based on multilateralism with global
governance systems to facilitate trade, access to
resources and spread western values (soft power).
 “Emerging markets view access to raw materials as an
object of power politics. Europe sees it as trade policy”
 “Europe and Japan are in a transition from nation state
to market state: in response to globalisation they make
the citizen responsible for prosperity (by privatizing)”
 “Geo-economics becomes more important as emerging
markets see that their prosperity is linked to unhindered
access to scarce resources”.
 “Mechanisms for conflict resolution should be taken
seriously” >> should we develop something on food in The Hague ??
Quotes: Rob de Wijk – Machtspolitiek, 2014

6. Export Dutch agricultural / food products
6
Neigh-
bours:
56 %
EU:
80%
€ 62,4
mld
Extra-
EU:
20%
€ 16,1
mld

7. Exports food EU countries (based on value)
7

8. 12,5% NL exports outside EU are inputs:
support local production to reduce tension
 Export seeds: € 1,1 billion
intra EU extra EU
 Export means of production (machinery etc.): € 3,1 bln.
intra EU extra EU
 Glasshouses built outside the EU from Dutch origin
80 %
8
50
%
50
%
55
%
45

9. Imports
 Phosphate (and potassium)
● Dependent on a few sources, mainly Morocco
 Protein-rich animal feed (soy beans)
● EU uncompetitive in cost price (but home-grown
would not be not a big effect on consumer price ?)
● Meat consumption slows down – a good thing
● In supply disruption the stock is a big buffer
 Tropical products, including palm oil and fats
 Fish: EU aquaculture is not competitive compared to Asia
 Rare metals etc for machinery and ICT: who knows?
 If needed, NL could feed itself (autarky), EU too ?
9

10. Where to go from here
 Monitoring
● Agriculture and Food have good world trade data
(less true for rare metals etc.)
● Life cycle analysis and other methodologies of the
Sustainability Consortium could be used for
monitoring, finding alternatives, promote
recirculation
 Cooperation and reciprocity in trade
● Support with know how, but keep the lead (with
ICT?)
 Develop a conflict resolution mechanism in the city of
justice - The Hague

11. 11
The Sustainability Consortium
SOURCE: TSC member interviews
• Providing multi-stakeholder input
to ensure industry alignment
• Identifying issues beyond LCAs
• Committing to scientific rigor
• Early access to a vast multi-
stakeholder network
• Collaboration on innovative
sustainability solutions and
consumer engagement
Member testimonials
“By looking at sustainability as a
business opportunity, we are
innovating products now that we
wouldn’t have been otherwise”
“TSC is bringing stakeholders
together in a collaborative fashion
to develop sustainability solutions
for common themes across
product sustainability”
“TSC provides common language
and a uniform approach to
measure sustainability across the
supply chain”
Products
Approach
Network
• Defining clear standards for
environmental and social metrics
• Creating implementable tools
• Reducing cost and complexity of
reporting

12. Reciprocity as a principle in risk mitigation
 Match normative with strategic foreign policy in agrofood
 Beyond largest supply at lowest cost (anticipate risk)
 Cooperative solutions, mutual long term benefits
 Implications
● Sustain NL knowledge & innovation base
● Explore new sourcing opportunities
● Multilateral efforts yet also strategic partnerships
● Dialogue with the agro-food sector on supply risk

13. A central role for ICT as a tool in a
cooperative solution and reciprocity ?
App store
Services
sensors
actuators
data sources
(‘Internet of Things’)
Local Information systems
Spraying Advisory
Services
Meteorological
Service
State and Policy
Information Service
Consumer Food
safety service
E-agriculturist Service
for spraying potatoes
Machine Breakdown
Service
User’s devices
Other sources
Cloud
Information
systems

14. In conclusion
 Food exports are diverse, some big import streams
 Monitoring
● Agriculture and Food have good world trade data
(less true for rare metals etc.)
● Life cycle analysis and other methodologies of the
Sustainability Consortium could be used for
monitoring, finding alternatives, promote
recirculation
 Cooperation and reciprocity in trade
● Support with know how, but keep the lead (ICT?)
 Develop a conflict resolution mechanism in the city of
justice - The Hague
14

15. Thanks for your
attention
krijn.poppe@wur.nl
www.lei.wur.nl
Slides available