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T H E S O C I A L H E A LT H O F M A R R I A G E I N A M E R I C A



           U P DAT E S O F S O C I A L I N D I CAT O R S :
                   TA B L E S A N D G R A P H S




T H E   N A T I O N A L       M A R R I A G E        P R O J E C T
The National Marriage Project
                    T   he National Marriage Project is a nonpartisan, nonsectarian and interdisci-
                        plinary initiative located at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. The
                    project is financially supported by the university in cooperation with private
                    foundations.
    The Project’s mission is to provide research and analysis on the state of marriage in America and
to educate the public on the social, economic and cultural conditions affecting marital success and
wellbeing. The National Marriage Project has five goals: (1) annually publish The State of Our
Unions, an index of the health of marriage and marital relationships in America; (2) investigate and
report on younger adults’ attitudes toward marriage; (3) examine the popular media’s portrait of
marriage; (4) serve as a clearinghouse resource of research and expertise on marriage; and (5)
bring together marriage and family experts to develop strategies for revitalizing marriage.



Leadership
The project is co-directed by two nationally prominent family experts. David Popenoe, Ph.D., a pro-
fessor of sociology emeritus and former social and behavioral sciences dean at Rutgers, is the author
of Life Without Father, Disturbing the Nest, War Over the Family and many other scholarly and pop-
ular publications on marriage and family. Barbara Dafoe Whitehead, Ph.D., an author and social
critic, writes extensively on issues of marriage, family and child wellbeing. She is the author of Why
There Are No Good Men Left, The Divorce Culture, and the widely acclaimed Atlantic Monthly arti-
cle “Dan Quayle Was Right.”
    Special thanks are extended to Theresa Kirby for collecting the data and preparing the tables in
this report.
    Design: Bruce Hanson / EGADS, Hightstown, NJ

© Copyright 2009 by the National Marriage Project. All rights reserved.

For more information:




The National Marriage Project
Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey
54 Joyce Kilmer Avenue, Lucy Stone Hall B217
Piscataway, NJ 08854-8045
(732) 445-7922
marriage@rci.rutgers.edu
http://marriage.rutgers.edu

February 2009
Contents
Figure 1. Number of Marriages per 1,000 Unmarried Women Age 15 and Older, by Year, United
    States
Figure 2. Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Married, by Sex and Race,
    1960-2007 United States
Figure 3. Percentage of Persons Age 35 through 44 Who Were Married by Sex, 1960-2007,
    United States
Figure 4. Percentage of Married Persons Age 18 and Older Who Said Their Marriages Were
    “Very Happy,” by Period, United States
Figure 5. Number of Divorces per 1,000 Married Women Age 15 and Older, by Year, United
    States
Figure 6. Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Divorced b, by Sex and Race,
    1960-2007 United States
Figure 7. Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried, Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex, by Year, United
    States
Figure 8. Fertility Rates, 1960-2006, Number of Births per 1,000 Women Age 15 through 44,
    United States
Figure 9. Percentage of Households with a Child or Children Under Age 18, 1960-2007, United
    States
Figure 10. Percentage of Children Under Age 18 Living with A Single Parent, by Year and Race,
    United States
Figure 11. Percentage of Children Under Age 18 Living with Two Married Parents, by Year and
    Race, United States
Figure 12. Percentage of Live Births that Were to Unmarried Women, by Year, United States
Figure 13. Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried, Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex Living with One
    Child or More, by Year,
Figure 14. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having A Good Marriage and Family
    Life Is “Extremely Important,” by Period, United States
Figure 15. Percentage of High School Seniors, Who Said It Is Very Likely They Will Stay Married
    to the Same Person for Life, by Period, United States
Figure 16. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said They Agreed or Mostly Agreed That
    Most People Will Have Fuller and Happier Lives If They Choose Legal Marriage Rather Than
    Staying Single or Just Living With Someone, by Period, United States
Figure 17. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having a Child Without Being Married Is
    Experimenting with a Worthwhile Lifestyle or Not Affecting Anyone Else, by Period, United
    States
Figure 18. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Agreed or Mostly Agreed with the Statement:
    “It Is Usually a Good Idea for a Couple to Live Together Before Getting Married in Order to
    Find Out Whether They Really Get Along,” by Period, United States
85                                                             FIGURE 1
         80                               76.5                          Number of Marriages per 1,000
         75                                                             Unmarried Women Age 15 and
         70                                                                                           a
                        73.5 b                                          Older, by Year, United States
                                          66.9
Number




         65
         60                                             61.4
         55                                                           56.2
         50                                                                         54.5
                                                                                                  50.8
         45                                                                                                     46.5                  39.2
         40                                                                                                             40.7
                 1960




                                   1970



                                                 1975



                                                               1980



                                                                             1985



                                                                                           1990



                                                                                                         1995



                                                                                                                       2000

                                                                                                                               2005


                                                                                                                                       2007
a We have used the number of marriages per 1,000 unmarried women age 15 and older, rather than the Crude
Marriage Rate of marriages per 1,000 population to help avoid the problem of compositional changes in the
population, that is, changes which stem merely from there being more or less people in the marriageable ages.
Even this more refined measure is somewhat susceptible to compositional changes.
b Per 1,000 unmarried women age 14 and older

Source: U.S. Department of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 87, Table 117; and
Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1986, Page 79, Table 124; and Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths:
Provisional Data for 2007, National Vital Statistics Report 56:21, July 14, 2008, Table 2.
(http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr55/nvsr56_21.pdf) and Current Population Surveys March 2007 data.
The CPS, March Supplement, is based on a sample of the U.S. population, rather than an actual count such as
those available from the decennial census. See sampling and weighting notes at
http://www.bls.census.gov:80/cps/ads/2002/ssampwgt.htm




 FIGURE 2
 Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Married,
                                            a
 by Sex and Race, 1960-2007, United States

                                 MALES                                                               FEMALES
         Year           Total    Blacks                 Whites                      Total            Blacks  Whites

         1960            69.3     60.9                   70.2                       65.9                 59.8                  66.6

         1970            66.7     56.9                   68.0                       61.9                 54.1                  62.8

         1980            63.2     48.8                   65.0                       58.9                 44.6                  60.7

         1990            60.7     45.1                   62.8                       56.9                 40.2                  59.1

         2000            57.9     42.8                   60.0                       54.7                 36.2                  57.4

         2007b           54.7     38.5                   56.9                       51.2                 30.0                  54.3

 a Includes races other than Black and White.
 b In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify
 themselves as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004
 may not be strictly comparable to those of prior years.
 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-506; America's Families and
 Living Arrangements (www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007/tabA1-all.pdf).
90           88.0                   89.3
                                                          MALES

             85           87.4           86.9                     84.2
                                                FEMALES
             80                                            81.4
Percentage




             75                                                                           74.1
                           FIGURE 3                                                                     71.6
                           Percentage of Persons Age 35                                                                    71.5
                                                                                  73.0
             70
                           through 44 Who Were Married,                                                                    69.1
                                                                                                       69.0
                           by Sex, 1960-2007, United States
             65


                    1960                  1970                 1980                 1990                  2000          2007

  Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1961, Page 34, Table 27;
  Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1971, Page 32, Table 38; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1981,
  Page 38, Table 49; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, General Population Characteristics, 1990, Page 45, Table
  34; and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 48, Table 51; Internet tables
  (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007/tabA1-all.pdf) Figure for 2007 was obtained
  using data from the Current Population Surveys rather than data from the census. The CPS, March
  Supplement, is based on a sample of the U.S. population, rather than an actual count such as those available
  from the decennial census. See sampling and weighting notes at
  http://www.bls.census.gov:80/cps/ads/2002/ssampwgt.htm




             75                                           FIGURE 4
                                                          Percentage of Married Persons Age 18 and
                                                          Older Who Said Their Marriages Were “Very
                      69.6
             70                                           Happy,” by Period, United States
                                     68.3
                                                                      66.4
Percentage




                                            MEN
                                                                                                       64.9
             65    66.6                                                               63.2
                                                                                                                         62.9
                             64.2
                                                        62.9
                                                                                                        61.0
             60                                 61.7                                                                     59.5

                                                        WOMEN        59.6              59.7


             55

                  1973-          1977-           1982-          1987-            1993-             1998-               2004-
                  1976           1981            1986           1991             1996              2002                2006
  Source: The General Social Survey, conducted by the National Opinion Research Center of the University of Chicago.
  The number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 2,000 except for 2004-06 with about 1,500.
25         FIGURE 5
                   23         Number of Divorces per 1,000                             22.6
                              Married Women Age 15                                              21.7
                                                                                                                    20.9
                   21         and Older, by Year,
Number per 1,000




                              United States            20.3
                   19                                                                                                 19.8                                 17.5
                                                                                                                                    18.8
                   17
                                                                                                                                              16.4
                   15                                          14.9
                   13
                   11            9.2             10.6
                       9
                              1960



                                          1965



                                                        1970



                                                                      1975



                                                                                1980



                                                                                              1985



                                                                                                             1990



                                                                                                                             1995



                                                                                                                                           2000

                                                                                                                                                    2005

                                                                                                                                                            2007
  We have used the number of divorces per 1,000 married women age 15 and older, rather than the Crude Divorce
  Rate of divorces per 1,000 population to help avoid the problem of compositional changes in the population. Even
  this more refined measure is somewhat susceptible to compositional changes.
  Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 87, Table 117; National Vital Statistics Reports, August
  22, 2001; California Current Population Survey Report: 2000, Table 3, March 2001; Births, Marriages, Divorces, and
  Deaths: Provisional Data for 2007, National Vital Statistics Report 56:21, July 14, 2008, Table 2.
  (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr55/nvsr56_21.pdf) and calculations by the National Marriage Project for
  the U.S. less California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana and Minnesota using the Current Population Surveys,
  2007.




                   FIGURE 6
                   Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Divorced,b
                   by Sex and Race, 1960-2007, United States

                                                        MALES                                                          FEMALES
                       Year            Total            Blacks               Whites                  Total             Blacks  Whites

                       1960             1.8                    2.0            1.8                     2.6                    4.3                  2.5

                       1970             2.2                    3.1            2.1                     3.5                    4.4                  3.4

                       1980             4.8                    6.3            4.7                     6.6                    8.7                  6.4

                       1990             6.8                    8.1            6.8                     8.9                  11.2                   8.6

                       2000             8.3                    9.5            8.4                    10.2                  11.8                   10.2

                       2007a            8.6                    8.9            8.6                    11.0                  12.1                   11.0
                   a In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify
                   themselves as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004
                   may not be strictly comparable to those of prior years.
                   b “Divorced” indicates family status at the time of survey. Divorced respondants who later marry are counted

                   as “married.”
                   Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and
                   Living Arrangements (www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007/tabA1-all.pdf).
6.5
                     6.0      FIGURE 7                                                                                  6.445
                              Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried,
                     5.5
                              Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex,
                     5.0
                              by Year, United States
                     4.5
                     4.0
Number in Millions




                                                                                                            3.822*
                     3.5
                     3.0
                                                                                       2.856
                     2.5
                     2.0
                                                                  1.589
                     1.5
                     1.0
                              .439
                     0.5                       .523
                     0.0
                           1960         1970               1980                  1990                  2000        2007
  Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and Living
  Arrangements: March 2000; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Current Population Survey,
  2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/
  hh-fam/cps2007.html).
  *Prior to 1996, the U.S. Census estimated unmarried-couple households based on two unmarried adults of the
  opposite sex living in the same household. After 1996, respondents could identify themselves as unmarried
  partners.




                     FIGURE 8
                                                                                            Total Fertility Rate a
                     Fertility Rates, 1960-2006, Number of Births per 1,000
                                                                                             1960               3.654
                     Women Age 15 through 44, United States
                                                                                             1970               2.480
                     120       118.0                                                         1980               1.840
                                                                                             1990               2.081
                     110
                                                                                             2000               2.056
                     100                                                                     2006               2.101
    Number




                      90
                                        87.9
                      80                                                            70.9
                                                                                                                      68.5
                      70                                   68.4
                                                                                                         65.9

                      60
                           1960           1970                 1980                  1990                  2000 2006
        a The number of births that an average woman would have if, at each year of age, she experienced the birth
        rates occurring in the specified year. A total fertility rate of 2,110 represents "replacement level" fertility under
        current mortality conditions (assuming no net migration).
        Source: National Vital Statistics Report, 1993, Pages 1, 2, 10 and 11; National Vital Statistics Report, 2001,
        49:1; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1999, Pages 75, 76 and 78,
        Tables 91, 93 and 96. Martin, J., et al. Births: Final Data for 2006, National Vital Statistics Report, 57:7, Jan. 7,
        2009, p. 29, Table 1, and p. 33, Table 4.
50     48.8                                       FIGURE 9
                                                               Percentage of Households with a
                                      45.5
             45                                                Child or Children Under Age 18,
                                                               1960-2007, United States
Percentage




             40
                                                38.4

             35
                                                                  34.6                 33.0
                                                                                                            31.7
             30
                  1960         1970                1980               1990                2000          2007

Source: Calculated from data in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1964,
Tables 36 and 54; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1980, Tables 62 and 67; Statistical Abstract of the
United States, 1985, Tables 54 and 63; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1994, Table 67; Statistical
Abstract of the United States, 2004-05, Table 56; and America’s Families and Households, 2007, Tables F1 and
H1 (www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fman/cps2007.html).




             60    FIGURE 10
                   Percentage of Children Under Age 18
             50    Living With a Single Parent,
                   by Year and Race,                  BLACKS
             40    United States
                                                                                                       27    26
                                                                                    25
Percentage




             30
                                                        20
                                             TOTALa
             20
                                 12
                    9                                               WHITES
             10

              0
                  1960            1970                  1980                   1990                    2000 2007 *

 a Total includes Blacks, Whites and all other racial and ethnic groupings. Over these decades an additional 3 to
 4 percent of children, not indicated in the above figure, were classified as living with no parent.
 b In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify themselves
 as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004 may not be
 strictly comparable to those of prior years.
 * Prior to 2007, the U.S. Census counted children living with two cohabiting parents as children in single
 parent households. See “Improvements to Data Collection about Families in CPS 2007,”
 (www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam.html).
 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; and U.S. Bureau of the
 Census, Population Division, Current Population Survey, 2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement
 (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007).
100
                 90                                                   WHITES
                         88
                 80                        85

                                                           77
                 70                                                    TOTAL a
   Percentage




                                                                                        73
                                                                                                       69        68
                 60
                 50                                                   BLACKS
                 40     FIGURE 11
                        Percentage of Children
                 30     Under Age 18 Living with Two Married Parents, c
                        by Year and Race, United States

                      1960             1970               1980                   1990                 2000 2007 b
     a Total includes Blacks, Whites and all other racial and ethnic groupings.
     b In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify
     themselves as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004
     may not be strictly comparable to those of prior years.
     c "Married Parents" may be step or natural parents of children in the household.

     Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and Living
     Arrangements, March 2000; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Current Population Survey,
     2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/
     cps2007).




                80     FIGURE 12
                       Percentage of Live Births that
                70     Were to Unmarried Women, by                                 BLACKS

                60     Year and Race, United States

                50
Percentage




                                                                                                                      38.5
                40                                                                                   33.2
                                                                                        28.0
                30                                                          22.0
                                                          TOTAL a    18.4
                20                          10.7
                                                   14.2
                                 7.7                                                WHITES
                10      5.3

                0
                      1960    1965      1970         1975           1980         1985        1990       2000 2006
     Total includes Whites, Blacks and all other racial and ethnic groupings.
     Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995, Page 77, Table 94; Statistical Abstract of the United
     States, 1999, Page 79, Table 99; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2000, Page 69, Table 85; and
     Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 63, Table 76; National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50, 5.
     Martin, J., et al. Births: Preliminary Data for 2006, National Vital Statistics Report, 57:7, Jan. 7, 2009, p. 54,
     Table 18.
3.0
                     2.8       FIGURE 13
                     2.6                                                                               2.505
                               Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried,
                     2.4
                     2.2
                               Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex
                     2.0       Living with One Child or More Under
Number in Millions




                     1.8       Age 15, by Year, United States
                     1.6
                     1.4                                                                     1.563 *
                     1.2
                     1.0
                     0.8                                                       .891
                     0.6                               .431
                     0.4
                              .197       .196
                     0.2
                     0.0
                           1960            1970          1980              1990         2000              2007
   * Prior to 1996, the U.S. Census estimated unmarried-couple households based on two unmarried adults of
   the opposite sex living in the same household. After 1996, respondents could identify themselves as
   unmarried partners. The Census also identified households with children under 15 until 1996 when they began
   identifying children under 18.
   Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and Living
   Arrangements, March, 2000, and and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Current Population
   Survey, 2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, Table H3 and
   (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007).




                     85
                                                       81.9                           82.1      82.1
                                                                              83.2
                                  80.2                            GIRLS
                                                81.3
                     80
                                     FIGURE 14
                                     Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having
Percentage




                     75              a Good Marriage and Family Life is “Extremely
                                                                                             BOYS
                                     Important,” by Period,
                                     United States                                72.9
                     70                                               72.0                      70.7

                                  69.4                 69.7
                                                69.0

                     65
                           ’76-’80         ’81-’85      ’86-’90           ’91-’95     ’96-’00    ’01-’06

    Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000.
    Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.
80      FIGURE 15
                     Percentage of High School Seniors Who Expected to Marr y, or Were
             75      Married, Who Said It Is "Very Likely" They Will Stay Mar ried to the
                     Same Person for Life, by Period, United States
             70
                                         68.0
Percentage




                      68.0                                                               64.6
             65                                                                                             62.7
                                                                              63.5
                                                     62.5
             60               BOYS
                                                               GIRLS                                        57.1
                                         55.7
                      57.3                                                    56.4       57.8
             55
                                                   53.7
             50
                  ’76-’80         ’81-’85            ’86-’90           ’91-’95           ’96-’00      ’01-’06
   Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000. From 1976-1980 to 1986-1990, the
   trend is significantly downward for both girls and boys (p < .01 on a two-tailed test), but after 1986-1990, the
   trend is significantly upward for boys (p < .01 on a two-tailed test).
   Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.




             55      FIGURE 16
                     Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said They Agreed or Mostly
             50      Agreed That Most People Will Have Fuller and Happier Lives If They
                     Choose Legal Marriage Rather Than Staying Single or Just Living
             45      With Someone, by Period, United States
Percentage




                       38.9     38.4                                                                 39.4
             40                               BOYS                           37.9       38.1
                                                            36.5
                       37.9
             35                 35.7
                                                                             31.1                    31.6
             30                                    30.9
                                                                   GIRLS
                                                                                        28.5
             25
                  ’76-’80        ’81-’85             ’86-’90           ’91-’95          ’96-’00        ’01-’06

  Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000. The trend for girls is statistically
  significant (p <.01 on a two-tailed test).
  Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.
FIGURE 17
             65    Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having a Child Without
                   Being Married is Experimenting with a Worthwhile Lifestyle
             60                                                                    55.9
                   or Not Affecting Anyone Else, by Period, United States
                                                                                                         55.8
             55                                                                53.3
                                                                                         54.3
             50                                       47.8
Percentage




                                                                               49.1       49.1
                                         43.2
             45             BOYS                              46.6

             40        41.2              40.3

             35                GIRLS

             30        33.3


                    ’76-’80          ’81-’85           ’86-’90         ’91-’95            ’96-’00     ’01-’04
  Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000 except for 2001-2004, for which it is
  about 4,500. The trend for both boys and girls is statistically significant (p <.01 on a two-tailed test).
  Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.




             80     FIGURE 18
                    Percentage of High School Seniors Who “Agreed” or “Mostly Agreed”
             75     With the Statement That “It Is Usually a Good Idea for a Couple to
             70     Live Together Before Getting Married in Order to
             65     Find Out Whether They Really Get Along,”            65.7
                    by Period, United States                                       64.5
             60
                                                                          60.5           59.1
             55
Percentage




                                                             57.8                                       57.6
             50                                BOYS                   51.3
                                                                                GIRLS
                       44.9
             45                47.4
                                                             45.2
             40
             35                         36.5
             30        32.3

                  ’76-’80          ’81-’85        ’86-’90            ’91-’95            ’96-’00     ’01-’06

  Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000. The overall trend is significantly upward
  for both girls and boys (p < .01 on a two-tailed test).
  Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.

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The State Of Marriage in America(2008 Update )

  • 1. T H E S O C I A L H E A LT H O F M A R R I A G E I N A M E R I C A U P DAT E S O F S O C I A L I N D I CAT O R S : TA B L E S A N D G R A P H S T H E N A T I O N A L M A R R I A G E P R O J E C T
  • 2. The National Marriage Project T he National Marriage Project is a nonpartisan, nonsectarian and interdisci- plinary initiative located at Rutgers, the State University of New Jersey. The project is financially supported by the university in cooperation with private foundations. The Project’s mission is to provide research and analysis on the state of marriage in America and to educate the public on the social, economic and cultural conditions affecting marital success and wellbeing. The National Marriage Project has five goals: (1) annually publish The State of Our Unions, an index of the health of marriage and marital relationships in America; (2) investigate and report on younger adults’ attitudes toward marriage; (3) examine the popular media’s portrait of marriage; (4) serve as a clearinghouse resource of research and expertise on marriage; and (5) bring together marriage and family experts to develop strategies for revitalizing marriage. Leadership The project is co-directed by two nationally prominent family experts. David Popenoe, Ph.D., a pro- fessor of sociology emeritus and former social and behavioral sciences dean at Rutgers, is the author of Life Without Father, Disturbing the Nest, War Over the Family and many other scholarly and pop- ular publications on marriage and family. Barbara Dafoe Whitehead, Ph.D., an author and social critic, writes extensively on issues of marriage, family and child wellbeing. She is the author of Why There Are No Good Men Left, The Divorce Culture, and the widely acclaimed Atlantic Monthly arti- cle “Dan Quayle Was Right.” Special thanks are extended to Theresa Kirby for collecting the data and preparing the tables in this report. Design: Bruce Hanson / EGADS, Hightstown, NJ © Copyright 2009 by the National Marriage Project. All rights reserved. For more information: The National Marriage Project Rutgers, The State University of New Jersey 54 Joyce Kilmer Avenue, Lucy Stone Hall B217 Piscataway, NJ 08854-8045 (732) 445-7922 marriage@rci.rutgers.edu http://marriage.rutgers.edu February 2009
  • 3. Contents Figure 1. Number of Marriages per 1,000 Unmarried Women Age 15 and Older, by Year, United States Figure 2. Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Married, by Sex and Race, 1960-2007 United States Figure 3. Percentage of Persons Age 35 through 44 Who Were Married by Sex, 1960-2007, United States Figure 4. Percentage of Married Persons Age 18 and Older Who Said Their Marriages Were “Very Happy,” by Period, United States Figure 5. Number of Divorces per 1,000 Married Women Age 15 and Older, by Year, United States Figure 6. Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Divorced b, by Sex and Race, 1960-2007 United States Figure 7. Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried, Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex, by Year, United States Figure 8. Fertility Rates, 1960-2006, Number of Births per 1,000 Women Age 15 through 44, United States Figure 9. Percentage of Households with a Child or Children Under Age 18, 1960-2007, United States Figure 10. Percentage of Children Under Age 18 Living with A Single Parent, by Year and Race, United States Figure 11. Percentage of Children Under Age 18 Living with Two Married Parents, by Year and Race, United States Figure 12. Percentage of Live Births that Were to Unmarried Women, by Year, United States Figure 13. Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried, Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex Living with One Child or More, by Year, Figure 14. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having A Good Marriage and Family Life Is “Extremely Important,” by Period, United States Figure 15. Percentage of High School Seniors, Who Said It Is Very Likely They Will Stay Married to the Same Person for Life, by Period, United States Figure 16. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said They Agreed or Mostly Agreed That Most People Will Have Fuller and Happier Lives If They Choose Legal Marriage Rather Than Staying Single or Just Living With Someone, by Period, United States Figure 17. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having a Child Without Being Married Is Experimenting with a Worthwhile Lifestyle or Not Affecting Anyone Else, by Period, United States Figure 18. Percentage of High School Seniors Who Agreed or Mostly Agreed with the Statement: “It Is Usually a Good Idea for a Couple to Live Together Before Getting Married in Order to Find Out Whether They Really Get Along,” by Period, United States
  • 4. 85 FIGURE 1 80 76.5 Number of Marriages per 1,000 75 Unmarried Women Age 15 and 70 a 73.5 b Older, by Year, United States 66.9 Number 65 60 61.4 55 56.2 50 54.5 50.8 45 46.5 39.2 40 40.7 1960 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 a We have used the number of marriages per 1,000 unmarried women age 15 and older, rather than the Crude Marriage Rate of marriages per 1,000 population to help avoid the problem of compositional changes in the population, that is, changes which stem merely from there being more or less people in the marriageable ages. Even this more refined measure is somewhat susceptible to compositional changes. b Per 1,000 unmarried women age 14 and older Source: U.S. Department of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 87, Table 117; and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1986, Page 79, Table 124; and Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2007, National Vital Statistics Report 56:21, July 14, 2008, Table 2. (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr55/nvsr56_21.pdf) and Current Population Surveys March 2007 data. The CPS, March Supplement, is based on a sample of the U.S. population, rather than an actual count such as those available from the decennial census. See sampling and weighting notes at http://www.bls.census.gov:80/cps/ads/2002/ssampwgt.htm FIGURE 2 Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Married, a by Sex and Race, 1960-2007, United States MALES FEMALES Year Total Blacks Whites Total Blacks Whites 1960 69.3 60.9 70.2 65.9 59.8 66.6 1970 66.7 56.9 68.0 61.9 54.1 62.8 1980 63.2 48.8 65.0 58.9 44.6 60.7 1990 60.7 45.1 62.8 56.9 40.2 59.1 2000 57.9 42.8 60.0 54.7 36.2 57.4 2007b 54.7 38.5 56.9 51.2 30.0 54.3 a Includes races other than Black and White. b In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify themselves as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004 may not be strictly comparable to those of prior years. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-506; America's Families and Living Arrangements (www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007/tabA1-all.pdf).
  • 5. 90 88.0 89.3 MALES 85 87.4 86.9 84.2 FEMALES 80 81.4 Percentage 75 74.1 FIGURE 3 71.6 Percentage of Persons Age 35 71.5 73.0 70 through 44 Who Were Married, 69.1 69.0 by Sex, 1960-2007, United States 65 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1961, Page 34, Table 27; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1971, Page 32, Table 38; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1981, Page 38, Table 49; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, General Population Characteristics, 1990, Page 45, Table 34; and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 48, Table 51; Internet tables (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007/tabA1-all.pdf) Figure for 2007 was obtained using data from the Current Population Surveys rather than data from the census. The CPS, March Supplement, is based on a sample of the U.S. population, rather than an actual count such as those available from the decennial census. See sampling and weighting notes at http://www.bls.census.gov:80/cps/ads/2002/ssampwgt.htm 75 FIGURE 4 Percentage of Married Persons Age 18 and Older Who Said Their Marriages Were “Very 69.6 70 Happy,” by Period, United States 68.3 66.4 Percentage MEN 64.9 65 66.6 63.2 62.9 64.2 62.9 61.0 60 61.7 59.5 WOMEN 59.6 59.7 55 1973- 1977- 1982- 1987- 1993- 1998- 2004- 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2002 2006 Source: The General Social Survey, conducted by the National Opinion Research Center of the University of Chicago. The number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 2,000 except for 2004-06 with about 1,500.
  • 6. 25 FIGURE 5 23 Number of Divorces per 1,000 22.6 Married Women Age 15 21.7 20.9 21 and Older, by Year, Number per 1,000 United States 20.3 19 19.8 17.5 18.8 17 16.4 15 14.9 13 11 9.2 10.6 9 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2007 We have used the number of divorces per 1,000 married women age 15 and older, rather than the Crude Divorce Rate of divorces per 1,000 population to help avoid the problem of compositional changes in the population. Even this more refined measure is somewhat susceptible to compositional changes. Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 87, Table 117; National Vital Statistics Reports, August 22, 2001; California Current Population Survey Report: 2000, Table 3, March 2001; Births, Marriages, Divorces, and Deaths: Provisional Data for 2007, National Vital Statistics Report 56:21, July 14, 2008, Table 2. (http://www.cdc.gov/nchs/data/nvsr/nvsr55/nvsr56_21.pdf) and calculations by the National Marriage Project for the U.S. less California, Georgia, Hawaii, Indiana, Louisiana and Minnesota using the Current Population Surveys, 2007. FIGURE 6 Percentage of All Persons Age 15 and Older Who Were Divorced,b by Sex and Race, 1960-2007, United States MALES FEMALES Year Total Blacks Whites Total Blacks Whites 1960 1.8 2.0 1.8 2.6 4.3 2.5 1970 2.2 3.1 2.1 3.5 4.4 3.4 1980 4.8 6.3 4.7 6.6 8.7 6.4 1990 6.8 8.1 6.8 8.9 11.2 8.6 2000 8.3 9.5 8.4 10.2 11.8 10.2 2007a 8.6 8.9 8.6 11.0 12.1 11.0 a In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify themselves as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004 may not be strictly comparable to those of prior years. b “Divorced” indicates family status at the time of survey. Divorced respondants who later marry are counted as “married.” Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and Living Arrangements (www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007/tabA1-all.pdf).
  • 7. 6.5 6.0 FIGURE 7 6.445 Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried, 5.5 Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex, 5.0 by Year, United States 4.5 4.0 Number in Millions 3.822* 3.5 3.0 2.856 2.5 2.0 1.589 1.5 1.0 .439 0.5 .523 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and Living Arrangements: March 2000; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Current Population Survey, 2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/ hh-fam/cps2007.html). *Prior to 1996, the U.S. Census estimated unmarried-couple households based on two unmarried adults of the opposite sex living in the same household. After 1996, respondents could identify themselves as unmarried partners. FIGURE 8 Total Fertility Rate a Fertility Rates, 1960-2006, Number of Births per 1,000 1960 3.654 Women Age 15 through 44, United States 1970 2.480 120 118.0 1980 1.840 1990 2.081 110 2000 2.056 100 2006 2.101 Number 90 87.9 80 70.9 68.5 70 68.4 65.9 60 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2006 a The number of births that an average woman would have if, at each year of age, she experienced the birth rates occurring in the specified year. A total fertility rate of 2,110 represents "replacement level" fertility under current mortality conditions (assuming no net migration). Source: National Vital Statistics Report, 1993, Pages 1, 2, 10 and 11; National Vital Statistics Report, 2001, 49:1; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1999, Pages 75, 76 and 78, Tables 91, 93 and 96. Martin, J., et al. Births: Final Data for 2006, National Vital Statistics Report, 57:7, Jan. 7, 2009, p. 29, Table 1, and p. 33, Table 4.
  • 8. 50 48.8 FIGURE 9 Percentage of Households with a 45.5 45 Child or Children Under Age 18, 1960-2007, United States Percentage 40 38.4 35 34.6 33.0 31.7 30 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 Source: Calculated from data in U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1964, Tables 36 and 54; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1980, Tables 62 and 67; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1985, Tables 54 and 63; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1994, Table 67; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2004-05, Table 56; and America’s Families and Households, 2007, Tables F1 and H1 (www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fman/cps2007.html). 60 FIGURE 10 Percentage of Children Under Age 18 50 Living With a Single Parent, by Year and Race, BLACKS 40 United States 27 26 25 Percentage 30 20 TOTALa 20 12 9 WHITES 10 0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 * a Total includes Blacks, Whites and all other racial and ethnic groupings. Over these decades an additional 3 to 4 percent of children, not indicated in the above figure, were classified as living with no parent. b In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify themselves as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004 may not be strictly comparable to those of prior years. * Prior to 2007, the U.S. Census counted children living with two cohabiting parents as children in single parent households. See “Improvements to Data Collection about Families in CPS 2007,” (www.census.gov/population/www/socdemo/hh-fam.html). Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Current Population Survey, 2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007).
  • 9. 100 90 WHITES 88 80 85 77 70 TOTAL a Percentage 73 69 68 60 50 BLACKS 40 FIGURE 11 Percentage of Children 30 Under Age 18 Living with Two Married Parents, c by Year and Race, United States 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 b a Total includes Blacks, Whites and all other racial and ethnic groupings. b In 2003, the U.S. Census Bureau expanded its racial categories to permit respondents to identify themselves as belonging to more than one race. This means that racial data computations beginning in 2004 may not be strictly comparable to those of prior years. c "Married Parents" may be step or natural parents of children in the household. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and Living Arrangements, March 2000; and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Current Population Survey, 2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/ cps2007). 80 FIGURE 12 Percentage of Live Births that 70 Were to Unmarried Women, by BLACKS 60 Year and Race, United States 50 Percentage 38.5 40 33.2 28.0 30 22.0 TOTAL a 18.4 20 10.7 14.2 7.7 WHITES 10 5.3 0 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 2000 2006 Total includes Whites, Blacks and all other racial and ethnic groupings. Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1995, Page 77, Table 94; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 1999, Page 79, Table 99; Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2000, Page 69, Table 85; and Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2001, Page 63, Table 76; National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 50, 5. Martin, J., et al. Births: Preliminary Data for 2006, National Vital Statistics Report, 57:7, Jan. 7, 2009, p. 54, Table 18.
  • 10. 3.0 2.8 FIGURE 13 2.6 2.505 Number of Cohabiting, Unmarried, 2.4 2.2 Adult Couples of the Opposite Sex 2.0 Living with One Child or More Under Number in Millions 1.8 Age 15, by Year, United States 1.6 1.4 1.563 * 1.2 1.0 0.8 .891 0.6 .431 0.4 .197 .196 0.2 0.0 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2007 * Prior to 1996, the U.S. Census estimated unmarried-couple households based on two unmarried adults of the opposite sex living in the same household. After 1996, respondents could identify themselves as unmarried partners. The Census also identified households with children under 15 until 1996 when they began identifying children under 18. Source: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, Series P20-537; America’s Families and Living Arrangements, March, 2000, and and U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Current Population Survey, 2007 Annual Social and Economic Supplement, Table H3 and (http://www.census.gov/population/socdemo/hh-fam/cps2007). 85 81.9 82.1 82.1 83.2 80.2 GIRLS 81.3 80 FIGURE 14 Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having Percentage 75 a Good Marriage and Family Life is “Extremely BOYS Important,” by Period, United States 72.9 70 72.0 70.7 69.4 69.7 69.0 65 ’76-’80 ’81-’85 ’86-’90 ’91-’95 ’96-’00 ’01-’06 Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000. Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.
  • 11. 80 FIGURE 15 Percentage of High School Seniors Who Expected to Marr y, or Were 75 Married, Who Said It Is "Very Likely" They Will Stay Mar ried to the Same Person for Life, by Period, United States 70 68.0 Percentage 68.0 64.6 65 62.7 63.5 62.5 60 BOYS GIRLS 57.1 55.7 57.3 56.4 57.8 55 53.7 50 ’76-’80 ’81-’85 ’86-’90 ’91-’95 ’96-’00 ’01-’06 Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000. From 1976-1980 to 1986-1990, the trend is significantly downward for both girls and boys (p < .01 on a two-tailed test), but after 1986-1990, the trend is significantly upward for boys (p < .01 on a two-tailed test). Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. 55 FIGURE 16 Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said They Agreed or Mostly 50 Agreed That Most People Will Have Fuller and Happier Lives If They Choose Legal Marriage Rather Than Staying Single or Just Living 45 With Someone, by Period, United States Percentage 38.9 38.4 39.4 40 BOYS 37.9 38.1 36.5 37.9 35 35.7 31.1 31.6 30 30.9 GIRLS 28.5 25 ’76-’80 ’81-’85 ’86-’90 ’91-’95 ’96-’00 ’01-’06 Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000. The trend for girls is statistically significant (p <.01 on a two-tailed test). Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.
  • 12. FIGURE 17 65 Percentage of High School Seniors Who Said Having a Child Without Being Married is Experimenting with a Worthwhile Lifestyle 60 55.9 or Not Affecting Anyone Else, by Period, United States 55.8 55 53.3 54.3 50 47.8 Percentage 49.1 49.1 43.2 45 BOYS 46.6 40 41.2 40.3 35 GIRLS 30 33.3 ’76-’80 ’81-’85 ’86-’90 ’91-’95 ’96-’00 ’01-’04 Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000 except for 2001-2004, for which it is about 4,500. The trend for both boys and girls is statistically significant (p <.01 on a two-tailed test). Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan. 80 FIGURE 18 Percentage of High School Seniors Who “Agreed” or “Mostly Agreed” 75 With the Statement That “It Is Usually a Good Idea for a Couple to 70 Live Together Before Getting Married in Order to 65 Find Out Whether They Really Get Along,” 65.7 by Period, United States 64.5 60 60.5 59.1 55 Percentage 57.8 57.6 50 BOYS 51.3 GIRLS 44.9 45 47.4 45.2 40 35 36.5 30 32.3 ’76-’80 ’81-’85 ’86-’90 ’91-’95 ’96-’00 ’01-’06 Number of respondents for each sex for each period is about 6,000. The overall trend is significantly upward for both girls and boys (p < .01 on a two-tailed test). Source: Monitoring the Future surveys conducted by the Survey Research Center at the University of Michigan.