This is the latest forecast set for our GDP(O) model. We forecast growth of 2.8% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2016. We have some doubts about the reliability of the construction data n Q2. We model UK GDP growth in the first instance using our pragmatic GDP (O) model. On this basis we employ more conventional business modelling techniques including, ARIMA, exponential smoothing, pattern recognition and econometrics.

1. Modelling GDP(O)
The Saturday Economist . com
Modelling GDP(O)
Forecasts for the UK economy 2015 - 2016
September 2015

2. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2000 2003 2006 2009 2012 2015
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GDP(O) Output Index
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP (O) growth in the second quarter of 2015 was 2.6% year on year led by
growth in the service sector.
Construction growth increased by 4.4%. Manufacturing output increased by
0.6% and overall production output increased by 1.4%
Overall service sector output was up by 2.8% with continued strong growth in
the distribution hotels and leisure sector (4.6%) and business services sector
up by 3.1%. Transport storage and communications output increased by 4.1%
GDP (O) growth in the second quarter of 2016 up 2.6%
We forecast growth of 2.8% in 2015 and 2.9% in 2015.
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
2005 2008 2011 2014
GDP(O) Year on Year Change
-10.0
-7.5
-5.0
-2.5
0.0
2.5
5.0
7.5
10.0
Construction Manufacturing Services Total
2.93.2
2.1
4.4
2.83.0
1.5
4.6
3.03.03.1
9.5
1.5
2.0
-0.7
0.3 0.7
2.0
-1.3-7.5
2012 Actual 2013 Actual 2014 Actual 2015 Fcts 2016 Fcts
September 2015
We make some revision to the construction data in Q2 as released by the ONS
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

3. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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GDP(O)
Modelling GDP(O)
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

4. Check out www.johnashcroft.co.uk, Join me on LinkedIn, Twitter or Google+
GDP(O)
-7.0
-5.0
-3.0
-1.0
1.0
3.0
5.0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Forecast
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

5. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Agriculture, Forestry and Fishing
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 6 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

6. 60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
140.0
160.0
180.0
200.0
220.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Mining and Quarrying
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 23 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

7. 90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Manufacturing
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 101 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

8. 90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Electricity, Gas, Steam GDP(O) weight 10 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

9. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Water, Sewage
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 12 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

10. 90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Total Production
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) 146 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

11. 85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Construction GDP(O) weight 64 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

12. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Distribution, Hotels and Leisure GDP(O) weight 139 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

13. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Transport, Storage and Communications
Modelling GDP(O)
GDP(O) weight 104 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

14. 60.0
65.0
70.0
75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
120.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Business Services and Finance GDP(O) weight 307 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

15. 80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Education, Health, Other Services GDP(O) weight 234 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

16. 75.0
80.0
85.0
90.0
95.0
100.0
105.0
110.0
115.0
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
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Total Services GDP(O) weight 784 / 1000
Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

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Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015

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Data Based on the ONS Second Estimate of GDP Q2 : 28th August 2015
Change Year on Year %

19. Modelling GDP(O)
The Saturday Economist . com
Modelling GDP(O)
Forecasts for the UK economy 2015 - 2016
September 2015