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Startup Valuation and is
there a Bubble?
Herwig Springer, CEO i5invest
​h.springer@i5invest.com
2 | 12/02/2015
Experience of the
founder team Product with a
Unique Selling
Proposition
Traction /
Momentum
Consistence /
completeness of
business model
Scalability of
business model
Market potential
and competition
Business Plan
and capital
required
External proof of
concept
What can you
contribute in
addition to
capital?
Fair valuation (for
the region) with
reasonable stake
Working together
over the
investment period
Exit / liquidation
event
Issues from the perspective of Angel Investor
12/02/2015
Traffic
Engagement
Registered users
Active users
Revenues
Profitability
3 | 12/02/2015
What drives returns?
The following factors are positively correlated with higher
returns on the investment
12/02/2015
Source: Wiltbank/Boeker, Returns to Angel Investors, 2007
Hours of due diligence
Angel investor’s expertise in the
industry
Active participation at least several
times per month
Market for seed funding is becoming
more efficient
Proprietary deal flow is declining as a
driver of returns
Advisory support is becoming more
important (than connective support)
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
<1X 1X to 5X 5X to 10X 10X to 30X >30XPercentofTotalExits
Exit Multiples
Distribution of Returns by Venture
Investment
Overall Multiple: 2.6x
Average Holding Period: 3.5 years
3 years
3.3 years
4.6 years
4.9 years 6 years
4 | 12/02/2015
Venture Capital Method
The VC approach reflects the business model of invest, hold
and exit
Pre-money
value
Post-money
value
Capital
raised
Exit Value
Discount Rate
= Expected IRR
Exit Value drivers
Revenue potential
Profitability: e.g.
EBITDA
Multiple based on
revenues / EBITDA
Competitive
bidding process
Consider Dilution based on next funding rounds or option pools
They reduce value / share and pre-money valuation
Investment horizon: 5 – 8 years
Terminal Value (EUR in m) 20,0
IRR 65%
Investment Horizon (yrs) 6
Post-money value 1,0
Capital raised 0,3
Pre-money value 0,7
Share in the Company 30%
Cash on Cash Multiple 20
Efficient exit process
5 | 12/02/2015
Asset-based valuation
The Asset-based valuation reflects the business model, the
status quo and a make/buy decision by a strategic investor
2/12/2015
Total asset
value
Other
Assets?
Customers
Consider traction and quality of existing customers
Replacement costs based on Customer Acquisition costs /
Future value based on Customer Lifecycle Value
Workforce
Existing workforce in place
Replacement costs / multiples
Software,
Know How
Software and Databases
Relief from royalty /
Replacement costs
Intellectual
Property
Patents, trademarks, etc.
Relief from royalty / Replacement costs
Fixed &
current assets
Office equipment and Net Working Capital
Replacement Costs
6 | 12/02/2015
Valuation based on Scoring Method
Step 1: Determine the average pre-money valuation of pre-revenue companies in the
region and business sector of the target company.
Step 2: Set weighting for each category and benchmark the target company with
average pre-revenue companies
2/12/2015
Category Weighting Benchmarking Factor
Strength of Entrepreneur and Team 50% 125% 0.6250
Size of the Opportunity 15% 150% 0.2250
Product/Technology – USP 15% 100% 0.1500
Competitive Environment 5% 75% 0.0375
Marketing/Sales/Partnerships 5% 80% 0.0400
Need for Additional Investment 5% 100% 0.0500
Other factors (e.g. grants received) 5% 100% 0.0500
Total 100% 1.1775
Average pre-revenue valuation EUR 1.5 m
Valuation of Target (pre-revenue) EUR 1.8 m
7 | 12/02/2015
All approaches provide a great framework…
…in the end supply and demand for investment opportunities
drive the valuation
Startupinvestment
opportunities
Angelinvestors
(Deals) experience and
points of reference for
valuation
Industry knowledge
Angel network
Supply Demand
8 | 12/02/2015
What is happening in startup markets?
The world talks about the big ones as this is more exciting
Source: Statista, Capital
IQ & i5invest Analysis
USD in bn
0 10 20 30 40 50
UBER
Airbnb
Dropbox
Xiaomi
Snapchat
Palantir
Jingdong
Rocket Internet
Pinterest
Zalando
Overview of most valuable start ups above
USD 1 billion
0
2
4
6
8
Latest pre-
money
valuation
Market Cap
(Jan 2015)
USDinbn
Rocket Internet
0
2
4
6
8
Latest pre-
money
valuation
Market Cap
(Jan 2015)
USDinbn
Zalando
0
10
20
30
40
Feb 2011 Aug 2013 Jun 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015
Pre-money(USDinbn)
UBER
….and their development over time
+141%
9 | 12/02/2015
What is happening in transaction markets?
2/12/2015
Development of transaction multiples in
Internet Software
Source: Capital IQ & i5invest Analysis
0,0
5,0
10,0
15,0
0,0
20,0
40,0
60,0
80,0
100,0
Q1-2/FY2013 Q3-4/FY2013 Q1-2/FY2014 Q3-4/FY2014
Transactions in Europe - Internet Software
Average transaction value (EUR in m)
Transaction Value / EBITDA
0 1 000,0 2 000,0 3 000,0
Scout24 Holding GmbH - 2013
Host Europe WVS Limited - 2013
Civica plc - 2013
Nets Holding A/S - 2014
VKontakte Ltd. - 2014
Viber Media Inc. - 2014
Enterprise Value (USD in m)
Biggest Transactions
(USD in m)
Enterprise Value / EBITDA
Development of private placements in
Internet Software
0,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
0,0
2,0
4,0
6,0
8,0
10,0
Aug 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014
Private Placements - Internet Software
Average money raised (EUR in m)
Number of transactions
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
Europe and USA USA Europe
Private Placements per region - Internet
Software (money raised)
Q3 2014 Q4 2014
+20% +38%
-30%
(USD in m)
(USD in m)
10 | 12/02/2015
What is happening in capital markets?
2/12/2015
66%
0,00
0,50
1,00
1,50
2,00
2,50
3,00
Europe USA
Enterprise Value / Sales - Jan 2015
Enterprise Value / Sales
How do capital markets look at
Internet Companies?
Source: Capital IQ & i5invest Analysis
US-based companies trade at a 66%
premium above their peers in Europe.
Companies in the Anglo-Saxon Region
trade at higher multiples in general.
Does being in the US add value for the sake
of being in the US?
0,00
1,00
2,00
3,00
4,00
5,00
6,00
-
2 000,0
4 000,0
6 000,0
8 000,0
10 000,0
United Internet AG
(DB:UTDI)
Yandex N.V.
(NasdaqGS:YNDX)
Telecity Group plc
(LSE:TCY)
Top 3 "European"
Enterprise Value EV / Revenues
0,00
5,00
10,00
15,00
20,00
-
50 000,0
100 000,0
150 000,0
200 000,0
250 000,0
300 000,0
350 000,0
Google Inc.
(NasdaqGS:GOOGL)
Facebook, Inc.
(NasdaqGS:FB)
eBay Inc.
(NasdaqGS:EBAY)
Top 3 American
Enterprise Value EV / Revenues
What are the big players and
their valuations?
USD in bn
11 | 12/02/2015
Is there a bubble?
12/02/2015
Factors that should be considered when talking about a
bubble
Interest rates are
basically 0%
Total tech investments
incl. M&A close to 2000
Rising pre-money values
IPOs with negative
Earnings
Rising tech salaries
We are in Europe (with
still big global potential)
BUT: We need to improve the ecosystem and create
serial entrepreneurs with international exits
1
2
5
3
4
-
5 000,0
10 000,0
0
500
1000
Tech investments
Number of Deals
Investments (USD in m)
2
4
0
20
40
60
80
100
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
The percentage of IPOs
with negative earnings
3
0
20
40
60
80
100
Pre-Money Valuations
Later Round
Second Round
(USD in m)
5
86000
88000
90000
92000
94000
96000
98000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Software Engineer Base
Salary
(USD)
Source: i5invest analysis, PwC, DJ VentureSource, Jay R. Ritter / Business Insider and Glassdoor / BI.
12 | 12/02/2015
Cluster Spengergasse
Spengergasse 37
1050 Vienna
In the heart of Vienna‘s startup ecosystem
13 | 12/02/2015
What we do – Our Services
WE ARE LONG TERM PARTNERS (through all stages)
START-UP MENTORING
SEED FUNDING
CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT / M&A ADVISORY
We focus on max 2 new companies per year – we aren’t
spray & pray investors. We focus on sector expertise, mostly
strong IP/technology, international/US markets, rarely
copycat business models
14 | 12/02/2015
Who we are – Our Team
Founded 2007, Vienna - partner i5growth Inc. in Palo Alto
12/02/2015
- PARTNERS & FRIENDS – OUR ECOSYSTEM-
Herwig Springer
CEO Corp. Dev.,
M&A
Patrick Prokesch
Director Corp. Dev.,
M&A
Paul Weinberger
Partner
Markus Wagner
Chairmain of the
Advisory Board
Alexander
Igelsboeck
Advisory Board
Martin Brunthaler
Advisory Board
Georg Novak
Executive Assistant
Bernhard Lehner
Partner
Vlad Gozman
Partner
15 | 12/02/2015
Startup Mentoring and Seed Funding
Venture 1 Venture 2 Venture 3 Venture 4 Venture 5
Innovation Management and
Product Strategy
Go-to-Market Strategy
Company Setup and Office
Infrastructure
IT Dev. & Operations,
Accounting, Finance
Seed Funding, Business
Planning & Public Funding
HR & Recruiting
Marketing, PR & Media
Planning
Social Media Marketing and
SEO
Development
Project
Management
Product
Management
Development
Project
Management
Product
Management
Development
Project
Management
Product
Management
Development
Project
Management
Product
Management
Development
Project
Management
Product
Management
help ideas
to grow
?
International Business Network
Business development
16 | 12/02/2015
Startup Incubation – Top 10 learnings
1
2
6
5
3
4
7
9
8
10
Team up with the best/team members you know/complementary people/experienced pros
Better a small piece of success than a huge of a failure
Don’t wait until your product is perfect but create a Minimum Viable Product
Talk-talk-talk about your company/products, no one will steal it
Sell-sell-sell generate revenues – revenue is the best funding ever!
Don’t rely on viral effects, PR or social media (SEO, CPA, …)
Launch fast, A/B testing, try out, learn, mutate, adopt
Look for experienced investors (execs, managers, experts, …)  expertise, money, network
Do it, don’t wait, don’t think about it, try it out
Build companies that earn money
17 | 12/02/2015
Corporate Development / M&A Advisory
 Company and market
analysis
 Financial model and
business plan
 Indicative valuation
 Long- and shortlisting
of potential buyers
 Preparation of
transaction
documents (Info
Memo, Teaser & NDA)
 Contacting short list with
teaser and NDA
 Distribution of Info
Memo after receipt of
signed NDAs
 Preparation of
management
presentation
 Setup of Data Room
 Assessment of LOIs
 Selection of bidders
 SPA Negotiations with
preferred buyer(s)
 Development of final
transaction structure
(share/asset deal)
 Signing of SPA
 Receipt of approvals
 Closing
 Management
presentations and site
visits
 Coordinating Due
Diligence, expert
meetings and Q&A
session
 Assessment of Binding
Offers / Term Sheets
 Selection of preferred
buyer(s)
Phase 1
Preparation
Phase 2
Reach Out
Phase 3
Due Diligence
Phase 4
Negotiation
Key steps
Key success factors
 Understand dynamics
of transaction
environment
 Business
Development to
assure Fit for Exit
 Establish the right first
point of contact be it
business or corporate
development
 Create quickly
competitive process with
several potential bidders
 Negotiation tactics and
mitigating reps &
warranties
 Leverage different
stakeholders
 Bridging the value gap
 Comprehensive
preparation of
documents and
company data
 Fast, streamlined and
efficient due diligence
with several bidders
Efficient sell side support to maximize returns
18 | 12/02/2015
Portfolio Overview
#inspire, #innovate, #incubate, #invest, #internationalize
Thank you!
OUR EUROPE OFFICE
i5invest Beratungs GmbH
(CEO Herwig Springer)
Spengergasse 37-39
A-1050 Vienna
Austria/Europe
OUR US PARTNER
i5growth Inc.
(CEO Markus Wagner)
460 S California Ave, #304
Palo Alto, California 94306
United States

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Startup Valuation and is there a Bubble?

  • 1. Startup Valuation and is there a Bubble? Herwig Springer, CEO i5invest ​h.springer@i5invest.com
  • 2. 2 | 12/02/2015 Experience of the founder team Product with a Unique Selling Proposition Traction / Momentum Consistence / completeness of business model Scalability of business model Market potential and competition Business Plan and capital required External proof of concept What can you contribute in addition to capital? Fair valuation (for the region) with reasonable stake Working together over the investment period Exit / liquidation event Issues from the perspective of Angel Investor 12/02/2015 Traffic Engagement Registered users Active users Revenues Profitability
  • 3. 3 | 12/02/2015 What drives returns? The following factors are positively correlated with higher returns on the investment 12/02/2015 Source: Wiltbank/Boeker, Returns to Angel Investors, 2007 Hours of due diligence Angel investor’s expertise in the industry Active participation at least several times per month Market for seed funding is becoming more efficient Proprietary deal flow is declining as a driver of returns Advisory support is becoming more important (than connective support) 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% <1X 1X to 5X 5X to 10X 10X to 30X >30XPercentofTotalExits Exit Multiples Distribution of Returns by Venture Investment Overall Multiple: 2.6x Average Holding Period: 3.5 years 3 years 3.3 years 4.6 years 4.9 years 6 years
  • 4. 4 | 12/02/2015 Venture Capital Method The VC approach reflects the business model of invest, hold and exit Pre-money value Post-money value Capital raised Exit Value Discount Rate = Expected IRR Exit Value drivers Revenue potential Profitability: e.g. EBITDA Multiple based on revenues / EBITDA Competitive bidding process Consider Dilution based on next funding rounds or option pools They reduce value / share and pre-money valuation Investment horizon: 5 – 8 years Terminal Value (EUR in m) 20,0 IRR 65% Investment Horizon (yrs) 6 Post-money value 1,0 Capital raised 0,3 Pre-money value 0,7 Share in the Company 30% Cash on Cash Multiple 20 Efficient exit process
  • 5. 5 | 12/02/2015 Asset-based valuation The Asset-based valuation reflects the business model, the status quo and a make/buy decision by a strategic investor 2/12/2015 Total asset value Other Assets? Customers Consider traction and quality of existing customers Replacement costs based on Customer Acquisition costs / Future value based on Customer Lifecycle Value Workforce Existing workforce in place Replacement costs / multiples Software, Know How Software and Databases Relief from royalty / Replacement costs Intellectual Property Patents, trademarks, etc. Relief from royalty / Replacement costs Fixed & current assets Office equipment and Net Working Capital Replacement Costs
  • 6. 6 | 12/02/2015 Valuation based on Scoring Method Step 1: Determine the average pre-money valuation of pre-revenue companies in the region and business sector of the target company. Step 2: Set weighting for each category and benchmark the target company with average pre-revenue companies 2/12/2015 Category Weighting Benchmarking Factor Strength of Entrepreneur and Team 50% 125% 0.6250 Size of the Opportunity 15% 150% 0.2250 Product/Technology – USP 15% 100% 0.1500 Competitive Environment 5% 75% 0.0375 Marketing/Sales/Partnerships 5% 80% 0.0400 Need for Additional Investment 5% 100% 0.0500 Other factors (e.g. grants received) 5% 100% 0.0500 Total 100% 1.1775 Average pre-revenue valuation EUR 1.5 m Valuation of Target (pre-revenue) EUR 1.8 m
  • 7. 7 | 12/02/2015 All approaches provide a great framework… …in the end supply and demand for investment opportunities drive the valuation Startupinvestment opportunities Angelinvestors (Deals) experience and points of reference for valuation Industry knowledge Angel network Supply Demand
  • 8. 8 | 12/02/2015 What is happening in startup markets? The world talks about the big ones as this is more exciting Source: Statista, Capital IQ & i5invest Analysis USD in bn 0 10 20 30 40 50 UBER Airbnb Dropbox Xiaomi Snapchat Palantir Jingdong Rocket Internet Pinterest Zalando Overview of most valuable start ups above USD 1 billion 0 2 4 6 8 Latest pre- money valuation Market Cap (Jan 2015) USDinbn Rocket Internet 0 2 4 6 8 Latest pre- money valuation Market Cap (Jan 2015) USDinbn Zalando 0 10 20 30 40 Feb 2011 Aug 2013 Jun 2014 Dec 2014 Jan 2015 Pre-money(USDinbn) UBER ….and their development over time +141%
  • 9. 9 | 12/02/2015 What is happening in transaction markets? 2/12/2015 Development of transaction multiples in Internet Software Source: Capital IQ & i5invest Analysis 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 0,0 20,0 40,0 60,0 80,0 100,0 Q1-2/FY2013 Q3-4/FY2013 Q1-2/FY2014 Q3-4/FY2014 Transactions in Europe - Internet Software Average transaction value (EUR in m) Transaction Value / EBITDA 0 1 000,0 2 000,0 3 000,0 Scout24 Holding GmbH - 2013 Host Europe WVS Limited - 2013 Civica plc - 2013 Nets Holding A/S - 2014 VKontakte Ltd. - 2014 Viber Media Inc. - 2014 Enterprise Value (USD in m) Biggest Transactions (USD in m) Enterprise Value / EBITDA Development of private placements in Internet Software 0,0 100,0 200,0 300,0 400,0 500,0 0,0 2,0 4,0 6,0 8,0 10,0 Aug 2014 Sept 2014 Oct 2014 Nov 2014 Dec 2014 Private Placements - Internet Software Average money raised (EUR in m) Number of transactions 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Europe and USA USA Europe Private Placements per region - Internet Software (money raised) Q3 2014 Q4 2014 +20% +38% -30% (USD in m) (USD in m)
  • 10. 10 | 12/02/2015 What is happening in capital markets? 2/12/2015 66% 0,00 0,50 1,00 1,50 2,00 2,50 3,00 Europe USA Enterprise Value / Sales - Jan 2015 Enterprise Value / Sales How do capital markets look at Internet Companies? Source: Capital IQ & i5invest Analysis US-based companies trade at a 66% premium above their peers in Europe. Companies in the Anglo-Saxon Region trade at higher multiples in general. Does being in the US add value for the sake of being in the US? 0,00 1,00 2,00 3,00 4,00 5,00 6,00 - 2 000,0 4 000,0 6 000,0 8 000,0 10 000,0 United Internet AG (DB:UTDI) Yandex N.V. (NasdaqGS:YNDX) Telecity Group plc (LSE:TCY) Top 3 "European" Enterprise Value EV / Revenues 0,00 5,00 10,00 15,00 20,00 - 50 000,0 100 000,0 150 000,0 200 000,0 250 000,0 300 000,0 350 000,0 Google Inc. (NasdaqGS:GOOGL) Facebook, Inc. (NasdaqGS:FB) eBay Inc. (NasdaqGS:EBAY) Top 3 American Enterprise Value EV / Revenues What are the big players and their valuations? USD in bn
  • 11. 11 | 12/02/2015 Is there a bubble? 12/02/2015 Factors that should be considered when talking about a bubble Interest rates are basically 0% Total tech investments incl. M&A close to 2000 Rising pre-money values IPOs with negative Earnings Rising tech salaries We are in Europe (with still big global potential) BUT: We need to improve the ecosystem and create serial entrepreneurs with international exits 1 2 5 3 4 - 5 000,0 10 000,0 0 500 1000 Tech investments Number of Deals Investments (USD in m) 2 4 0 20 40 60 80 100 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 The percentage of IPOs with negative earnings 3 0 20 40 60 80 100 Pre-Money Valuations Later Round Second Round (USD in m) 5 86000 88000 90000 92000 94000 96000 98000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Software Engineer Base Salary (USD) Source: i5invest analysis, PwC, DJ VentureSource, Jay R. Ritter / Business Insider and Glassdoor / BI.
  • 12. 12 | 12/02/2015 Cluster Spengergasse Spengergasse 37 1050 Vienna In the heart of Vienna‘s startup ecosystem
  • 13. 13 | 12/02/2015 What we do – Our Services WE ARE LONG TERM PARTNERS (through all stages) START-UP MENTORING SEED FUNDING CORPORATE DEVELOPMENT / M&A ADVISORY We focus on max 2 new companies per year – we aren’t spray & pray investors. We focus on sector expertise, mostly strong IP/technology, international/US markets, rarely copycat business models
  • 14. 14 | 12/02/2015 Who we are – Our Team Founded 2007, Vienna - partner i5growth Inc. in Palo Alto 12/02/2015 - PARTNERS & FRIENDS – OUR ECOSYSTEM- Herwig Springer CEO Corp. Dev., M&A Patrick Prokesch Director Corp. Dev., M&A Paul Weinberger Partner Markus Wagner Chairmain of the Advisory Board Alexander Igelsboeck Advisory Board Martin Brunthaler Advisory Board Georg Novak Executive Assistant Bernhard Lehner Partner Vlad Gozman Partner
  • 15. 15 | 12/02/2015 Startup Mentoring and Seed Funding Venture 1 Venture 2 Venture 3 Venture 4 Venture 5 Innovation Management and Product Strategy Go-to-Market Strategy Company Setup and Office Infrastructure IT Dev. & Operations, Accounting, Finance Seed Funding, Business Planning & Public Funding HR & Recruiting Marketing, PR & Media Planning Social Media Marketing and SEO Development Project Management Product Management Development Project Management Product Management Development Project Management Product Management Development Project Management Product Management Development Project Management Product Management help ideas to grow ? International Business Network Business development
  • 16. 16 | 12/02/2015 Startup Incubation – Top 10 learnings 1 2 6 5 3 4 7 9 8 10 Team up with the best/team members you know/complementary people/experienced pros Better a small piece of success than a huge of a failure Don’t wait until your product is perfect but create a Minimum Viable Product Talk-talk-talk about your company/products, no one will steal it Sell-sell-sell generate revenues – revenue is the best funding ever! Don’t rely on viral effects, PR or social media (SEO, CPA, …) Launch fast, A/B testing, try out, learn, mutate, adopt Look for experienced investors (execs, managers, experts, …)  expertise, money, network Do it, don’t wait, don’t think about it, try it out Build companies that earn money
  • 17. 17 | 12/02/2015 Corporate Development / M&A Advisory  Company and market analysis  Financial model and business plan  Indicative valuation  Long- and shortlisting of potential buyers  Preparation of transaction documents (Info Memo, Teaser & NDA)  Contacting short list with teaser and NDA  Distribution of Info Memo after receipt of signed NDAs  Preparation of management presentation  Setup of Data Room  Assessment of LOIs  Selection of bidders  SPA Negotiations with preferred buyer(s)  Development of final transaction structure (share/asset deal)  Signing of SPA  Receipt of approvals  Closing  Management presentations and site visits  Coordinating Due Diligence, expert meetings and Q&A session  Assessment of Binding Offers / Term Sheets  Selection of preferred buyer(s) Phase 1 Preparation Phase 2 Reach Out Phase 3 Due Diligence Phase 4 Negotiation Key steps Key success factors  Understand dynamics of transaction environment  Business Development to assure Fit for Exit  Establish the right first point of contact be it business or corporate development  Create quickly competitive process with several potential bidders  Negotiation tactics and mitigating reps & warranties  Leverage different stakeholders  Bridging the value gap  Comprehensive preparation of documents and company data  Fast, streamlined and efficient due diligence with several bidders Efficient sell side support to maximize returns
  • 18. 18 | 12/02/2015 Portfolio Overview #inspire, #innovate, #incubate, #invest, #internationalize
  • 19. Thank you! OUR EUROPE OFFICE i5invest Beratungs GmbH (CEO Herwig Springer) Spengergasse 37-39 A-1050 Vienna Austria/Europe OUR US PARTNER i5growth Inc. (CEO Markus Wagner) 460 S California Ave, #304 Palo Alto, California 94306 United States