Presentation on Space Tourism and Sustainable Development to British Interplanetary Society Space Tourism conference 29th November 2006. Links the development of low cost access to space to the issues of sustainable development.

1. Space Tourism
And
Sustainable Development
Steven Fawkes
29th
November 2006
BIS European Developments
in Space Tourism Conference

2. Space Tourism and Sustainable Development
may seem incompatible but…links on
five levels:
• operational
• cultural
• economic
• resources
• survival

3. 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
1986: 1st market
study
1985: Society
Expeditions/Phoenix
1996: X Prize
announced
1998: Space
Adventures formed
2001: Denis Tito
flight to ISS
2004:
SpaceShipOne first
private spaceflight
2006: Spaceport
developments
1968: Seminal
papers by Hilton &
Ehricke
1972: Club
of Rome
report
1962: Silent
Spring by
Rachel Carson
1970:
US EPA
formed
1990: 1st
IGPCC
report on global
warming
1997: Kyoto
Protocol
2005: GE launch
Ecomagination &
Walmart launches
sustainability
objectives
1995: Brent
Spar
1973: 1st oil
crisis
2000: 50%
population
live in cities
Space Tourism and Sustainable Development Timelines

4. Sustainable Development
“development that meets the needs of the present
without compromising the ability of future generations
to meet their own needs”
MAJOR INTERCONNECTED ISSUES:
• Population growth
• Wealth distribution
• Resources:
• Water
• Energy
• Minerals
• Food
• Environment:
• Atmosphere
• Land
• Sea

5. Sustainable Development – Population Growth
Overlays © Will Day, 2006

6. Sustainable Development – Wealth Distribution

7. Sustainable Development – Water
Overlays © Will Day, 2006

8. Sustainable Development - Energy
Overlays © Will Day, 2006

9. Sustainable Development – Mineral Resources
“Providing today’s developed country level of services
for copper worldwide (as well as for zinc and, perhaps,
platinum) would appear to require conversion of
essentially all of the ore in the lithosphere to stock-in-
use plus near-complete recycling of the metals from that
point forward.”
R.B.Gordon, M. Bertram and T.E. Graedel
Yale University
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the
United States of America
23rd
Jan 2006

10. Sustainable Development - Resources

11. Sustainable Development – The Environment
“Air pollution causes 2 million premature deaths a year”
World Health Organisation
“Air pollution causes nearly 170,000 deaths a year in China”
World Bank

12. Sustainable Development – The Environment

13. Sustainable Development – Connections
Overlays © Will Day, 2006

14. Corporate Responses to Sustainable Development
Rejection and Non-responsiveness:
“Very few companies today are actively opposed to sustainability concepts; most are
simply ignorant of the issues and non-responsive” (WWF, 2003).
Compliance:
The “vast majority” of companies – activities include reducing operating risks and
impacts and protection of corporate reputation.
Efficiency:
Actions include introducing policies to reduce costs. Despite the benefits to be gained,
this approach to critical issues is often “managed outside the core business activities,
and so missing strategic opportunities for value creation” (Draper, 2006).
Strategic Proactivity:
At this stage, corporations seek competitive advantage by, among others, engagement
with stakeholders in product development.
Sustaining corporations:
“Vanguard” companies (WWF 2003) which are pioneering alternative interpretations of
business values and success.

15. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
MAJOR ISSUES:
• Design of ground based facilities:
• energy
• resource use
• sustainable design and operation
• Design of vehicles:
• emissions (need holistic analysis)
• cradle to cradle “C2C” design
• Carbon neutral trip – offsets:
• estimated cost of offset:
• £25 for sub-orbital (cf. London to Singapore return)
• £1,500 for launch to ISS (Soyuz technology, 3 PAX)

16. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Operations
FAILURE TO BUILD SUSTAINABILITY INTO ANY BUSINESS
IS NOW A MAJOR BUSINESS RISK:
• Market perception risk
• Regulatory risk
• Social pressure risk (NGOs/public opinion)

17. BE CONSISTENT:
Failure to be
consistent is a
business risk
Space Tourism and Sustainability – Operations

18. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
POSSIBLE EFFECTS OF SPACE TOURISM ON CULTURE:
• environmental consciousness
• inspiration of the young
• the frontier culture
• sense of purpose
• optimism

19. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
This photo is credited with kick-starting the mass
environmental movement

20. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
“Before I flew, I was already aware of how small and
vulnerable our planet is; but only when I saw it from
space, in all its ineffable beauty and fragility, did I
realize that humankind's most urgent task is to cherish
and preserve it for future generations.”
Sigmund Jaehn , 1st
German Cosmonaut

21. “Nothing could have
prepared me for the beauty
of the view. It was
breathtaking – watching the
Earth from above without
seeing borders, wars and
divisions and realising how
fragile the planet is. Every
world leader should make
the trip. They’d start to see
things differently.”
Anousheh Ansari
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

22. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture
"The way I want to inspire kids is to fly to space and let them
know that they can too”
Burt Rutan
“Space, the final frontier”
Star Trek
“Where there is no vision the people perish”
Solomon, Proverbs 29 v8

23. “Perhaps the core message is that
evolution and exploration are inseparable,
that the curious intellect and the
wondering spirit are the evolutionary
process from inside. They are the
hallmarks of humanity and the true
propellants of spaceflight.”
Wyn Wachorst
“Man must explore and this is exploration
at its greatest”
Dave Scott, Apollo 15
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Culture

24. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Economics
A NEW INDUSTRY:
''What this country needs is a really good $500 billion
technology - something to reignite popular enthusiasm
and the economy'‘
R Samuelson, Washington Post
Space tourism revenue forecasts:
$100 billion/year by 2030
$1 trillion/year by 2060
Patrick Collins
Space tourism facts:
$1 billion committed investment in spaceports - 2006

25. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources
“3554 Amun, a mile wide lump
of iron, nickel, cobalt,
platinum, and other metals
that has an orbit closely
resembling that of the
Earth’s……….3554 Amun
contains thirty times as much
metal as has ever been mined
by human beings in the
history of Earth. It’s value, at
current prices and if mined
slowly to keep commodity
prices level, is estimated to be
20 trillion dollars.”
John S. Lewis

26. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources
Solar Power Satellites
Projected European power
demand in 2020 is 535 GW
Energy dependence set to grow
from 50% to 70% by 2030

27. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Resources
Lunar helium–3 as a fuel source for fusion
power
Potential value of $140 million/100 kg
“But one assumption that I know will be justified is that the
Moon, the near-Earth asteroids, and the rest of the solar system
contain the resources that will take mankind to the next level of
civilization and prosperity.” Mike Griffin, NASA Administrator

28. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
“20 ways the world could end” include:
Pandemic
Nuclear war
Gamma ray burst
Asteroid impact
Mega tsunami
Super volcanoes
Catastrophic climate change

29. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival
“The real space race is between spaceflight
and extinction”
J. Richard Gott

30. “If we were up there among the planets, if there were
self-sufficient human communities on many worlds,
our species would be insulated from catastrophe,”
Carl Sagan
Space Tourism and Sustainability - Survival

31. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
Space Tourism is a growing industry
Sustainable Development reflects real problems
Sustainable Development is a business opportunity
Space Tourism links directly to Sustainable
Development through:
• operations
• culture
• economics
• resources
• survival

32. Space Tourism and Sustainability - Conclusions
Large parts of the Sustainable Development “industry” will
oppose the idea of Space Tourism
If the Space Tourism industry sees Sustainable Development as
just as a “compliance issue”, then it will face considerable
opposition
Need to mitigate risks by:
Designing sustainability into operations and systems
Making the case that space is a vital part of sustainability
A rare opportunity to design Sustainable Development into a
new industry from the start

33. I have learned to use the word
impossible with great caution
Wernher von Braun
A Final Thought
Thank you for listening