Gold Coast, Australia Keynote Jan 2010

Climate Change
and Real Estate
From
Global Research
to
Local Practice

January 18, 2011
Keynote Address
by

Govindan (“Govind”) Nair
Lead Economist, The World Bank, Washington DC, USA
(retired)
President, Hemispheres Solutions LLC, Virginia USA
Adjunct Professor, The George Washington University, USA
gnair@hemispheres-solutions.com
gnair@gwu.edu

Climate Change and Real Estate: Viewing
Impacts and Actions at Different Scales

Global

Metropolitan

Project/Building

Professionals and
Individual Citizens

Copyright Hemispheres Solutions LLC Gold Coast Jan 18, 2011

Research to practice: three key
implications for global and local action
• TIMING (how quickly to act)
– Substantial lag times and inertia both in climate systems and
built environment investments
– Limited ability to substitute acting tomorrow for acting today
• COLLECTIVE ACTION (how jointly to act)
– Minimizing mitigation costs requires acting on all worldwide
opportunities to reduce GHG emissions
– Global commons and equity concerns
• INNOVATION (how differently from the past to act)
– Transform energy and land use patterns incl. urban design
– Transform behaviors and adaptive policies to complex climate
change

Gold Coast Jan 18, 2011

Research to practice: normative framework
• TIMING (how quickly to act)
– Substantial lag times and inertia both in climate systems and
built environment investments
– Limited ability to substitute acting tomorrow for acting today
• COLLECTIVE ACTION (how jointly to act)
– Minimizing mitigation costs requires acting on all worldwide
opportunities to reduce GHG emissions
– Global commons and equity concerns
• INNOVATION (how differently from the past to act)
– Transform energy and land use patterns incl. urban design
– Transform behaviors and adaptive policies to complex climate
change


Source: World Bank, World Development Report 2010, Multicountry Poll July 2010
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/CC_Poll_Report_July_01_2010.pdf pp.8 &
11

How U.S. public attitudes to climate
change have evolved

Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/SixAmericasJune2010.pdf


The coordination problem: do citizens have sufficient knowledge of climate
change?

• Only 57% know that the “only 8 percent of Americans have
greenhouse effect refers to gases knowledge equivalent
in the atmosphere that trap heat; to an A or B, 40 percent would receive
• Only 50% of Americans a C or D, and 52 percent would get an
understand that global warming F”
is caused mostly by human
activities;
• Only 45% understand that
carbon dioxide traps heat from
the Earth’s surface; Yale Project On
• Only 25% have ever heard of Climate Change
coral bleaching or ocean Communication October
acidification. 12, 2010

• Large majorities incorrectly think
that the hole in the ozone layer
and aerosol spray cans contribute
to global warming Source: http://environment.yale.edu/climate/publications/knowledge-of-climate-change/


Atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) rising
at an accelerating rate

“Five years after Dr.
Keeling’s death, his
discovery is a focus
not of celebration
but of conflict. “
New York Times Dec
22, 2010


Global temperature anomalies in the
2000s: record years in a record decade

Source: World Meteorological Organization www.wmo.int

Global annual average temperature and CO2 concentration continue to climb, 1880–2007
Source: World Development Report 2010
The World Bank

Source: Adapted from Karl, Melillo, and Peterson 2009.
Note: Orange bars indicate temperature above the 1901–2000 average, blue bars are below average temperatures. The green line shows the rising CO2
concentration. While there is a clear long-term global warming trend, each individual year does not show a temperature increase relative to the
previous year, and some years show greater changes than others. These year-to-year fluctuations in temperature are attributable to natural processes,
such as the effects of El Niños, La Niñas, and volcanic eruptions.


A SNAPSHOT OF SOME EXTREME EVENTS (*) OVER THE PAST DECADE
*In the absence of a standard definition of an extreme event,
this map includes single and/or a
succession of weather phenomena leading to abnormal meteorological
and/or climate conditions with
high impacts such as heat waves, severe storms, flooding, droughts, etc.

Source: World Meteorological Organization

Heat waves / Extreme
high temperatures
20
8 1
15
29 30
Cold waves / Extreme low
23 4
temperatures / Snow storms 34
14 29
32 3

Severe or prolonged 24 31 21
droughts 11
17 19
6
33 26 12
18 10

Intense storms / 13
Flooding / Heavy rainfall
9

5
Tropical cyclones, 2 28
hurricanes and typhoons
27 22 7 25

16


The emissions gap between where the world is headed and where it needs to go is huge,
but a portfolio of clean energy technologies can help the world stay at 450 ppm CO2e (2°C)
)

Source: The World Bank
World Development Report 2010

Sources: WDR team, based on data from Riahi, Grübler, and Nakićenović 2007; IIASA 2009; IEA 2008b.
Note: Fuel switching is changing from coal to gas. Non-biomass renewables include solar, wind, hydropower, and geothermal. Fossil CCS is fossil fuels
with carbon capture and storage. While the exact mitigation potential of each wedge may vary under different models depending on the baseline, the
overall conclusions remain the same.


TWO DIFFERENT SETS OF ASSUMPTIONS USED IN THE SAME ECONOMIC MODEL
Looking at tradeoffs: The loss in consumption relative to a world without warming for different
peak CO2e concentrations

Source: The World Bank, World Development Report 2010
Source: Adapted from Hof, den Elzen, and van Vuuren 2008, figure 10.
Note: The curves show the percentage loss in the present value of consumption, relative to what it would be with a constant climate, as a function of
the target for peak CO2e concentrations. The “Stern assumptions” and “Nordhaus assumptions” refer to choices about the value of key parameters of
the model as explained in the text. The dot shows the optimum for each set of assumptions, where the optimum is defined as the greenhouse gas
concentration that would minimize the global consumption loss resulting from the sum of mitigation costs and impact damages.


Viewing different economic results as the “cost of climate
insurance” “A better approach to climate policy [than the limitations of integrated
assessment models], drawing on recent research on the economics of
uncertainty, would avoid the limitations of the narrow cost -benefit
comparisons of IAMs and reframe the cost of mitigation as buying insurance
against irreversible and catastrophic events, the avoidance of which would
yield large but unquantifiable benefits.
Policy decisions should be based on a judgment concerning the maximum
tolerable increase in temperature and/or atmospheric carbon dioxide
concentrations given the state of scientific understanding. In this
“…. the primary reason framework, the appropriate role for economists would
for keeping be to determine the least-cost strategy to achieve that target.”
GHG levels down is to
insure against high-
temperature
catastrophic climate
risks” Martin Weitzman,
Harvard economist
The “Stern assumptions” (which include relatively high climate sensitivity and
climate damages, and a long time horizon combined with low discount rates and
mitigation costs) produce an optimum peak CO2e concentration of 540 parts per
million (ppm). The “Nordhaus assumptions” (which assume lower climate
“..if there is a significant chance sensitivity and damages, a shorter time horizon, and a higher discount rate)
of utter catastrophe, that chance produce an optimum of 750 ppm. …. A strong motivation for choosing a lower
— rather than what is most likely peak concentration target is to reduce the risk of catastrophic outcomes linked to
to happen — should dominate global warming. From this perspective, the cost of moving from a high target for
cost-benefit calculations. And peak CO2e concentrations to a lower target can be viewed as the cost of climate
utter catastrophe does look like insurance—the amount of welfare the world would sacrifice to reduce the risk of
a realistic possibility, even if it is catastrophe.
not the most likely outcome.
Weitzman argues — and I agree Extracts from : Weitzman (2010), Ackerman,
— that this risk of catastrophe, F., S. J. DeCanio, R. B. Howarth, and K.
rather than the details of cost- Sheeran. 2010, World Bank World
benefit calculations, makes the Development Report 2010
most powerful case for strong
climate policy .“

What does the way forward look like? Two options among many:
Business as usual or aggressive mitigation

Source: Clarke and others, forthcoming.
Note: The top band shows the range of estimates across models (GTEM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, MiniCAM) for emissions under a business-as-usual
scenario. The lower band shows a trajectory that could yield a concentration of 450 ppm of CO2e (with a 50 percent chance of limiting warming to less
than 2°C). Greenhouse gas emissions include CO2, CH4, and N2O. Negative emissions (eventually required by the 2°C path) imply that the annual rate of
emissions is lower than the rate of uptake and storage of carbon through natural processes (for example, plant growth) and engineered processes (for
example, growing biofuels and when burning them, sequestering the CO2 underground). GTEM, IMAGE, MESSAGE, and MiniCAM are the integrated
assessment models of the Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics, the Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency,
International Institute of Applied Systems Analysis, and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.
Gold Coast Jan 18, 2011 World Development Report 2010

Source: The World Bank, World Development Report 2010, web page
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTWDRS/EXTWDR2010/0,,contentMDK:22303545~pagePK:64167689~piPK:64167673~theSitePK:52
87741,00.html

Source: Asian Development Bank,
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/
Economics-Climate-Change-
Southeast Asia* is highly
SEA/default.asp vulnerable to climate change
impacts
Sea levels have also risen in
Southeast Asia is among the Southeast Asia in the last
regions with the greatest need few decades,
for adaptation, which is critical between 1 and 3 mm per
to reducing year on average, marginally
the impact of changes already higher than the
locked into the climate global average. P. 33
system.p. xxvi

Given the region’s [In Ho Chi Minh City]………………
rapid economic For areas affected by minor flooding,
growth, its GHG land values are quite large, in excess
emissions have been of VND140,000 trillion ($8.75 trillion)
rising twice as fast as for regular flooding and VND200,000 trillion ($12.5
the global average. P. trillion) in extreme events—values exceeding
126 national
nominal gross domestic product. For
more serious flooding, land values at risk would
range from VND500 trillion
($31.25 billion) to VND710 trillion ($44 billion). But
*This AdB study covers four countries: the figures are quite high
Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand and and may suggest that land
Vietnam values are overestimated. p.118


Decision making on the global scale is insufficient to translate research into practice

• “The quest for appropriate
responses to climate change has
long focused on the need for an
international agreement—a global
deal. ………Although establishing
an effective international climate
regime is a justified
preoccupation, it should not lead
to a wait-and-see attitude, which
can only add to the inertia and
constrain the response.” p. 342-3

Extract from World Development Report 2010, The World Bank, http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/5287678-1226014527953/WDR10-
Full-Text.pdf


The Global Level: Key points
• Scientific consensus on anthropogenic global
warming

Global
• Broad economic consensus on projected
economic losses based on a range of models
differences in results from using different
Metropolitan assumptions can be viewed as the cost of
“climate insurance”

Project/Building • Varying degrees of public misperceptions
worlwide of the scientific consensus and varying
public attitudes worldwide toward sense of
urgency
Professionals
and Individual • Projected climate change impacts generally
Citizens stronger in Asia Pacific generally than other
regions as is potential for energy efficiency gains

• Timing is key – timeframe for stabilizing
worldwide Co2 emissions between 2020 and
2030

Copyright Hemispheres Solutions LLC


Sources: United Cities and Local
Governments, http://www.cities-
localgovernments.org/index.asp
&
World Mayors Summit on Climate
http://www.wmsc2010.org/acerc For the first time ever, local governments were
a-de-2/
officially recognized in UN climate documents
as "governmental stakeholders" ; based on
Mexico City pact signed by 152 cities at the
World Mayors Summit on Climate held in
Mexico city on 21st November 2010 including
Nates (France), Manaus (Brazil), Dakar
(Senegal), Durban (South Africa), etc


“Buildings alone represent an
average of 60% of total global
emissions, and there are more
than 20 million vehicles in just
19 key C40 cities. “
Source: http://www.c40cities.org/


Economic growth worldwide continues
to depend on cities
Difference in GDP per capita, labour productivity and employment between OECD metro-regions and their national average (2005)


A 50-cm sea level rise, combined with
predicted socioeconomic
development patterns, could result by
2070:

in a tripling of the population at risk of
coastal
flooding

AND

a tenfold increase in the amount of
assets exposed, or from 5% of 2008 GDP
to 9% of 2070’s
GDP in : Kamal-Chaoui, Lamia and Alexis Robert (eds.) (2009),
Cited
“Competitive Cities and Climate Change”, OECD
Regional Development Working Papers N° 2, 2009, p.53-54
OECD publishing


Asian cities are especially
vulnerable
Worldwide: 3,351 cities in low-
elevation coastal zones
Of the total urban population in
Asia, 17 percent lives in the low
elevation coastal zones
64% of these cities in developing
countries

18 of Asia’s 20 largest are coastal,
or located on a riverbank or in a
delta

Half of above in Asia (excl
Australia, NZ)

In South-East Asia, more than
one third of the urban population
lives in such a setting

Data Sources: UNHABITAT, 2008, Bangkok Metropolitan Administration 2009

Climate change poses key threats to Cities are major contributors to CO2 emissions. Roughly
urban infrastructure and quality of half of the world’s population lives in urban areas, and
life. in Europe, 70% of the largest this share is increasing over time, projected to reach
cities have areas < 10 meters above 60% by 2030. Cities consume a great majority –
sea level. Port cities most at risk for between 60 to 80% – of energy production worldwide
coastal flooding are located and account for a roughly equal share of global CO2
both in rapidly .growing developing emissions
countries such as India and China (e.g.
Kolkata, Shanghai,
Guangzhou) and in wealthy of Citations from: Kamal-Chaoui, Lamia and Alexis Robert (eds.)
(2009),“Competitive Cities and Climate Change”, OECD
countries such as the United States Regional Development Working Papers N° 2, 2009,
(e.g. Miami, New York City), OECD publishing

the Netherlands (e.g. Rotterdam, Heat waves will be
Amsterdam) and Japan (e.g. Tokyo, felt more strongly in urban areas due
Osaka to urban heat island effects.

Climate change:
Why cities matter


…but GHG emissions per capita may
be lower in cities than elsewhere
• detailed analyses of urban greenhouse gas emissions for individual cities
suggest that, per capita, urban residents tend to generate a substantially
smaller volume of carbon emissions than residents elsewhere in the same
country (Dodman, 2009) e.g
– per capita emissions in New York City are only 29.7 per cent of those in the United
States as a whole (PlaNYC, 2007)
– those in London are just over half of the British average (Mayor of London, 2007)
– those in Rio de Janeiro are only 28.0 per cent of those of Brazil as a whole (Dubeux and
La Rovere,2007)
– those in Barcelona are only 33.9 per cent of those of Spain as a whole (Baldasano et al.,
1999)
• relatively low levels of emissions are influenced by urban density patterns:
– the density of buildings
– the average dwelling unit size; and
– the extent of public
extracted from: Dodman, David Urban Form, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Vulnerability


Emissions from transport are much lower in denser cities

Source: World Bank 2009b.
Note: The figure does not correct for income because a regression of transport emissions on density and income reveals that density, not income, is a
key factor. Data are for 1995.

The problem of inertia in the built
environment – like inertia in the climate
system
• Investments in real estate and buildings are
lumpy and long-lived (many decades)

• Decisions on land use and urban design
(density and structure of metropolitan
regions) have long lasting impacts (more than
a century)


Framing the policy choices in the Kaya
equation
• CO2 = (CO2 / E) * (E / GDP)* (GDP / POP) * POP

carbon dioxide
intensity of
energy use Energy
energy- intensity of CO2 = energy-related carbon
related economic dioxide emissions (CO2)
carbon output
GDP = gross domestic
dioxide product
E= energy
emissions POP=population
(CO2) Key policy levers


Until now, improvements in two policy levers -- energy and carbon
intensity -- have not been enough to offset rising energy demand boosted
by rising incomes

Source: IPCC 2007.
Note: GDP is valued using purchasing power parity (PPP) dollars.
Source: World Bank, World
Development Report 2010

Energy projections with Kaya equation


Only half the energy models find it possible to achieve the emission reductions necessary to
stay close to 450 ppm CO2e (2°C)

Source: Clarke and others, forthcoming.
Note: Each dot represents the emissions reduction that a particular model associates with a concentration target—450, 550, 650 parts per million
(ppm) of CO2 equivalent (CO2e)—in 2050. The number of dots in each column signals how many of the 14 models and model variants were able to find
a pathway that would lead to a given concentration outcome. “Overshoot” describes a mitigation path that allows concentrations to exceed their goal
before dropping back to their goal by 2100, while “not to exceed” implies the concentration is not to be exceeded at any time. “Full” refers to full
participation by all countries, so that emission reductions are achieved wherever and whenever they are most cost-effective. “Delay” means high-
income countries start abating in 2012, Brazil, China, India, and the Russian Federation start abating in 2030, and the rest of the world in 2050.


F4.9 Global actions are essential to limit warming to 2°C (450 ppm) or 3°C (550 ppm).
Developed countries alone could not put the world onto a 2°C or 3°C trajectory, even if they
were to reduce emissions to zero by 2050.

Sources: Adapted from IEA 2008b; Calvin and others, forthcoming.
Note: If energy-related emissions from developed countries (orange) were to reduce to zero, emissions from developing countries (green) under
business as usual would still exceed global emission levels required to achieve 550 ppm CO2e and 450 ppm CO2e scenarios (blue) by 2050.


Framing the policy choices in the Kaya
equation

carbon dioxide
Energy
intensity of
intensity of
energy use
economic
energy- output
related
carbon
dioxide Carbon
emissions
(CO2)
productivity=
Co2/GDP


carbon budget compares to the current carbon budget

Source: The World Bank, World
Development Report 2010

Sources: Emissions of greenhouse gases in 2005 from WRI 2008, augmented with land-use change emissions from Houghton 2009; population from World Bank
2009c.
Note: The width of each column depicts population and the height depicts per capita emissions, so the area represents total emissions. Per capita emissions of Qatar
(55.5 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per capita), UAE (38.8), and Bahrain (25.4)—greater than the height of the y-axis—are not shown. Among the larger
countries, Brazil, Indonesia, the Democratic Republic of Congo, and Nigeria have low energy-related emissions but significant emissions from land-use change;
therefore, the share from land-use change is indicated by the hatching.

Average US passenger family car every 2 ½
months
A household’s use of electricity
every six weeks.

One ton of
CO₂ emission
equivalent
each A household’s use of heating
and cooking fuel every four
The typical use of a microwave months (if energy use were
oven every seven years or of a spread equally throughout the
refrigerator every 15 months. year)>> every four years in
Hawaii or every six weeks in
Maine

Data source: based on multiple US government data sources, cited in Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton “The social cost of carbon”, real-world economics
review, issue no. 53, 26 June 2010, pp. 129-143, http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue53/AckermanStanton53.pdf


The importance of carbon pricing
“Providing a strong, stable carbon price is the
single policy action that is likely to have the
biggest effect in improving economic efficiency and
tackling the climate crisis. Clarity on policy and prices is all
the more important now, with companies facing such uncertainty
because of the financial crisis: the two risks compound each other,
damping investment. We may not be able fully to resolve the risks of
the financial crisis quickly; but we can take actions now that will
markedly reduce uncertainties about future carbon policies and
prices.”

Extract (underline and bold added) from Joseph
Stiglitz and Nicholas Stern,
Financial Times, March 2, 2009 Obama’s chance to lead the green
recovery


It’s not just about energy: Carbon pricing changes the mitigation potential of various sectors of
the economy including buildings

Source: Barker and others 2007b, figure TS.27. Source: The World Bank, World Development Report 2010

Note: EIT = economies in transition. The ranges for global economic potentials as assessed in each sector are shown by black vertical lines.


F4.8 Estimates of global mitigation costs and carbon prices for 450 and 550 ppm CO2e (2°C and 3°C) in
2030 from five models

Sources: WDR team, based on data from
Knopf and others, forthcoming; Rao and
others 2008; Calvin and others,
forthcoming.
Note: This graphic compares mitigation
costs and carbon prices from five global
energy-climate models—MiniCAM,
IMAGE, MESSAGE, POLES, and REMIND
(see note 28 for model assumptions and
methodology). MiniCAM, POLES, IMAGE,
and MESSAGE report abatement costs
for the transformation of energy systems
relative to the baseline as a percent of
GDP in 2030, where GDP is exogenous.
a. The mitigation costs from REMIND are
given as macroeconomic costs expressed
in GDP losses in 2030 relative to baseline,
where GDP is endogenous.


Both energy efficiency and low-carbon technologies
needed to achieve sustainable energy development in
East Asia

Reference
(baseline) scenario

Sustainable Energy
Development
scenario
Co-2 emissions stabilize in 2025

Low-carbon urbanization models that focus on compact city
design, enhanced public transport, green buildings, clean
vehicles, and distributed generation.

Adapted from : World Bank, Winds of Change,
East Asia’s Sustainable Energy Future, 2010 p. 4
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASI
APACIFIC/Resources/226262-
Gold Coast Jan 18, 2011 1271320774648/windsofchange_fullreport.pdf

Illustration of the challenge of moving to sustainable Asian cities
Low-carbon mobility: strategies for Asia’s future built environment
“AVOID” strategy: well suited especially to
Asian cities in early development.
• land use planning is key
•Opportunities to capitalize upon higher
populations densities of Asian cities yet
unrealized
• relatively little research in this area

“SHIFT” strategy refers to modal choice
• density and design of many cities which geew
without infrastructure for private cars increases
neccesity for this shift
• public transport, walking, and cycling, and
motorcycles instead of cars

“IMPROVE” strategy refers to vehicles
technologies and low-carbon fuel types

“If low-carbon policy is to be
fully integrated in the
transport sector, then
associated policy instruments
will need to be
cited in: Asian Development Bank, Rethinking Transport and Climate Change,
www.adb.org/.../adb.../ADB-WP10-Rethinking-Transport-Climate-Change. pdf
…..reflected in the transport
strategies devised at the
city/local, regional, and
national levels.”

Policy choices towards a low-carbon
mobility in high density urban
environments


References
• Ackerman, F., S. J. DeCanio, R. B. Howarth, and K. Sheeran. 2010. “The Need for a Fresh Approach to Climate Change Economics.” In Assessing the
Benefits of Avoided Climate

• Change: CostBenefit Analysis and Beyond. Gulledge, J., L. J. Richardson, L. Adkins, and S. Seidel (eds.), Proceedings of Workshop on Assessing the
Benefits of Avoided Climate Change, March 16–17, 2009. Pew Center on Global Climate Change: Arlington, VA. p. 159–181. :
http://www.pewclimate.org/events/2009/benefitsworkshop

• Asian Development Bank, The Economics of Climate Change in Southeast Asia:A Regional Review, 2009,
http://www.adb.org/Documents/Books/Economics-Climate-Change-SEA/default.asp

• Asian Development Bank, Rethinking Transport and Climate Change, www.adb.org/.../adb.../ADB-WP10-Rethinking-Transport-Climate-Change. pdf

• Barrett, Scott, Johns Hopkins University, Economics The Open Access Open Assessment E-Journal Vol. 3, 2009-5 | March 3, 2009 |
http://www.economics-ejournal.org/economics/journalarticles/2009-5

• Kamal-Chaoui, Lamia and Alexis Robert (eds.) (2009),“Competitive Cities and Climate Change”, OECD Regional Development Working Papers N° 2,
2009, OECD publishing, Organisatiion for Ecnomiic Cooperation and Development

• Krugman, Paul, Building A Green Economy, The New York Times Magazine, April 7, 2010
http://www.nytimes.com/2010/04/11/magazine/11Economy-t.html?pagewanted=all

• Liliana Andonova, Colby College,Michele M. Betsill, Colorado State University, Harriet Bulkeley, Durham University, Transnational Climate Change
Governance, Paper prepared for the Amsterdam Conference on the Human Dimensions of Global,Environmental Change, 24-26 May 2007

• London School of Economics and Political Science, The Hartwell Paper, May 2010,
http://www2.lse.ac.uk/researchAndExpertise/units/mackinder/theHartwellPaper/Home.aspx

• Frank Ackerman and Elizabeth A. Stanton “The social cost of carbon”, real-world economics review, issue no. 53, 26 June 2010, pp. 129-143,
http://www.paecon.net/PAEReview/issue53/AckermanStanton53.pdf

• Bangkok Metropolitan Administration 2009, Bangkok Assessment Report on Climate Change 2009
http://www.unep.org/dewa/pdf/BKK_assessment_report2009.pdf

• Dodman, David Urban Form, Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Climate Vulnerability in UNFPA & International Institute for Environment and
Development, Population Dynamics and Climate Change, 2009
•


References
• Neff, Todd, Connecting Science and Policy to Combat Climate Change, Scientific American, March 17, 2009.
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=connecting-science-and-po

• Pacific Institute, THE 2010 CLIMATE B.S.* OF THE YEAR AWARD , http://www.pacinst.org/press_center/press_releases/climate_bs_award.html

• Rachlinski, J. Psychology of Global Climate Change, 2000 Univesity of Ill.inois Law Review299 (2000)

• Smith, V. Kerry HOW CAN POLICY ENCOURAGE ECONOMICALLY SENSIBLE CLIMATE ADAPTATION?, NATIONAL BUREAU OF ECONOMIC RESEARCH,
Working Paper 16100, June 2010
• http://www.nber.org/papers/w16100

• Stiglitz, Joseph, and Stern, Nicholas, Obama’s chance to lead the green recovery, Financial Times March 2, 2009
• http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/7c51644a-075b-11de-9294-000077b07658.html#ixzz1A4kssZbj

• UK DirectGov, Stern Review on Economics of Climate Change, http://www.direct.gov.uk/en/Nl1/Newsroom/DG_064854

• UK Energy Research Centre, The Rebound Effect: an assessment of the evidence for economy-wide energy savings from improved energy efficiency
• October 2007, www.ukerc.ac.uk/Downloads/PDF/07/0710ReboundEffect/0710ReboundEffectReport.pdf

• United Cities and Local Governments, http://www.cities-localgovernments.org/index.asp

• U.S. Energy Information Administration, International Energy Outlook 2010, http://www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/emissions.html

• Weitzman, Martin L (2010) GHG Targets as Insurance Against Catastrophic Climate Damages Department of Economics, Harvard University
(mweitzman@harvard.edu). June 3, 2010 version http://www.economics.harvard.edu/faculty/weitzman/files/1A1A.InsuranceCatastrophicRisks.pdf


References
• UNFPA & International Institute for Environment and Development, Population Dynamics and Climate Change, 2009

• World Bank, World Development Report 2010: Development and Climate Change,
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTWDRS/EXTWDR2010/0,,menuPK:5287748~pagePK:64167702~piPK:64167
676~theSitePK:5287741,00.html

• World Bank, World Development Report2010, Public attitudes toward climate change: findings from Multicountry Poll July 2010,
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTWDR2010/Resources/CC_Poll_Report_July_01_2010.pdf

• World Bank, World Development report 2010, Regional Vulnerability To Climate Change,
http://econ.worldbank.org/WBSITE/EXTERNAL/EXTDEC/EXTRESEARCH/EXTWDRS/EXTWDR2010/0,,contentMDK:22303545~pagePK:64167689~piPK:6
4167673~theSitePK:5287741,00.html

• World Bank, Winds of Change: East Asia’s Sustainable Energy Future, 2010
http://siteresources.worldbank.org/INTEASTASIAPACIFIC/Resources/226262-1271320774648/windsofchange_fullreport.pdf

• World Mayors Summit on Climate http://www.wmsc2010.org/acerca-de-2/

• World Meteorological Organization, http://www.wmo.int/pages/index_en.html

• Yale University, Yale Project on Climate Change Communication, http://environment.yale.edu/climate/ &
http://environment.yale.edu/climate/files/SixAmericasJune2010.pdf

•


Thank You!


Gold Coast, Australia Keynote Jan 2010

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