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Tourism Barometer
2012 Q1
Expectations of the
Greek Hospitality Sector
January 2012
Survey characteristics
• The Q4 Survey ran from 16 – 31 January 2012, among
hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece;
• The survey was anonymous and 210 hotels completed
the online questionnaire, of which 172 fully. The
distribution of those was as follows:
– 48% are city hotels and 52% resort hotels;
– 31% are 5*, 33% 4*, 17% 3*, 17% 2* and 3% 1* hotels.
• The survey includes results for both 2012 Q1 (city
hotels) and for the next season / 2012 (city & resort). The
results are presented in separate sections.
• Survey results are published in the press and on
www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
Main Conclusions
• The city hotels are clearly pessimistic for the first quarter of 2012 with
expected drops in occupancy and room rate levels. The hoteliers in
Thessaloniki form an exception as they are more optimistic, especially
on occupancy development, probably as the city hosts a large number of
Libyans recuperating after the Civil War in Libya.
• With respect to 2012, the hotel sector in general is pessimistic, while
when we measured expectations for 2012 at the end of October 2011
(Q4 2011), hoteliers were overall slightly optimistic. Now three months
later with PSI talks and negotiations with the Troika on a new package
are under way with an uncertain outcome, hoteliers have turned
negative on the performance of the sector in 2012.
• Exceptions within the overall negative climate for 2012 are the 5 star
resort hotels and to a lesser extent the 4 star resort hotels as well as the
Thessaloniki hoteliers, who are still expecting positive developments of
their occupancy and room rate levels, albeit at a lower level than when
we measured in October 2011.
50.0%
7%
18%
19%
19%
37%
• All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with
respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for:
– their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page
– the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page
How to read the Quarter meters
37% expects
stabilisation –
between -2% and +2%
18% expects an
increase -
between 2% and 5%
7% expects an
increase –
more than 5%
19% expects a
decrease –
more than 5%
The needle shows the
overall expectation /
feeling1
19% expects a
decrease –
between 2% and 5%
1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the
increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
How to read the Trend graphs
At this point, hoteliers’
expectations are
neutral.
In the green zone, hoteliers
are rather optimistic;
the more we move into the
green zone the more
optimistic they become.
In the red zone, hoteliers are
rather pessimistic;
the more we move into the
red zone, the more
pessimistic they become
The bar height
corresponds to the
position of the arrow
in the respective
Quarter meter.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
In the chart we compare the expectations for
2012 measured in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012
Expectations for 2012 Q1
City Hotels
50%
13%
11%
12%
45% 20%
«MY HOTEL»
City hotels
City hoteliers are
clearly very pessimistic
for the first quarter of
2012, which applies for
their own hotels as well
as for the market as a
whole.
As will be shown in the
next slides, hoteliers in
Thessaloniki are not
that pessimistic and
expect for their own
hotels some growth in
occupancy and
stabilising rates.
49%
18%40%
27%
9%
7%
50%
7%
9%
20%
37% 27%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
2%
8%
26%
40%
24%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012 Q1
51%
10%
7%
10%
52% 21%
«MY HOTEL»
Athens hotels
The barometers of the
Athens hotels are red
coloured. After a very
bad December month
the Athenian hoteliers
expect a clear
deterioration of
occupancy levels and
rooms rates this first
quarter compared to
the same quarter in
2011. All meters show
a majority of hoteliers
who expect significant
decreases, where
especially the room
rates are expected to
be under pressure.
49%
3%
55%
31%
10%
51%
7%
7%
28%
38%
21%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
7%
31%
48%
14%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012 Q1
49%
24%
24%
18%
6%
29%
«MY HOTEL»
Thessaloniki
hotels
Contrary to the overall
negative climate
among city hoteliers,
Thessaloniki is more
optimistic especially on
occupancy
development, probably
as the city hosts a
large number of
Libyans recuperating
after the Civil War in
Libya.
For the market as a
whole they are less
optimistic, especially
on the development of
the room rates.
49%
41%
12%
35% 12%
49%
6%
24%18%
6%
47%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
12%
29%
6%
53%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012 Q1
49%
10%
8%
10%
58% 15%
«MY HOTEL»
Other city hotels
Like the Athenian
hoteliers, also the other
city hoteliers are very
pessimistic for this
quarter. 68% expects a
drop in occupancy and
67% a drop in room
rates as far as their
own hotel is
concerned.
A similar picture is
shown for the market
as a whole.
Very few hoteliers
expect improvements
in their performance.
50%
18%
46%
21%
8%
8%
49%
8%
5%
15%
50% 23%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
5%
8%
21%
49% 18%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012 Q1
Expectations for
2012
50%
12%
15%
15%
24%
34%
«MY HOTEL»
All hotels
The hotel sector as a
whole is negative on
their performance in
2012, while three
months ago they were
still positive for this
year (see next slide).
Almost half of the
hoteliers expect –for
their own hotels –
stabilisation or
decreases up to 5% in
occupancy as well as
in ARR levels.
For the market in
general they are
slightly more
pessimistic.
49%
31%
27%
20%
13%
10%
50%
32%
17%
28% 15%
8%
51%
7%
12%
23%
29%
30%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
All hotels
When we measured the
expectations for 2012 at
the end of October 2011
(Q4 2011), hoteliers were
slightly optimistic. A short
positive impact of the
October 26th European
summit might have
influenced the
predictions. Now three
months later with PSI
talks and negotiations
with the Troika on a new
package are under way
with an uncertain
outcome, hoteliers have
turned clearly negative on
the performance of the
sector in 2012.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
51%
11%
19%
14%
19%
37%
«MY HOTEL»
Resort hotels
The resort hoteliers are
slightly pessimistic for
the new season. They
expect falling
occupancy rates, but
stabilising ARRs for
their own hotels.
For the market in
general they are more
pessimistic with more
than half of the
hoteliers expecting
stabilising and
decreasing occupancy
and ARRs.
49%
37%
21%
10%
21%
11%
51%
34%
19%
20%
19%
9%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
8%
20%
19%
21%
32%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
Resort hotels
At the end of October
2011 resort hoteliers
were among the most
positive for 2012.
However, now in
January 2012 they
have also turned
negative for this
season for both
occupancy and room
rate levels.
Comparing the two
surveys, the gap for
the market as a whole
is bigger than for their
own hotels.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
12%
27%
6%
12%
44%
«MY HOTEL»
5 star
resort hotels
The 5* resort sector is
an exception in the
overall negative
climate as hoteliers
predict rising
occupancy levels and
an even bigger
improvement in their
room rates.
For the market as
whole they believe that
levels will stabilise in
2012.
51%
38%
12%
3%
32%
15%
51%
47%
15%
9%
21%
9%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
51%
9%
27%15%
12%
38%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
5 star
resort hotels
Even though hoteliers
are still positive for
developments in 2012,
it is clear that the 5*
resort sector has lost
some of its optimism in
the last three months.
The gap between the
two measurement
points is the biggest in
expectations on room
rates for the market as
whole.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
51%
17%
22%
8%
14%
39%
«MY HOTEL»
4 star
resort hotels
Also the four star resort
hoteliers believe that
the occupancy rates
will improve in 2012 for
their own hotels, while
maintaining their rates
more or less the same
level.
In the 4* resort sector
in general,
occupancies are
expected to stabilise in
comparison to 2011,
while room rates are
expected to slightly
drop.
50%
42%
17%
8% 19%
14%
49%
33%
19%
14%
22%
11%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
8%
19%
22%
17%
33%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
4 star
resort hotels
With the exception of
predictions on room
rates for the market in
general, the hoteliers in
this segment still have
a slightly positive
outlook for 2012, albeit
at a lower level than
when we measured at
the end of October
2011.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
51%
43%
14%
42%
«MY HOTEL»
3 star
resort hotels
The three star hotels
expect to operate in
2012 at a much lower
level than in 2011.
Occupancy and room
rates are expected to
be under severe
pressure this year.
Remarkably, hoteliers
predict that the market
will outperform their
own hotels in 2012. In
most segments we see
just the opposite.
51%
43%
14%
29%
14%
51%
29%
29%
14%
22%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
51%
29%
14%
14%
43%
51%
29%
14%
14%
43%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
3 star
resort hotels
Comparing the two
measurement points,
we indeed see that for
their own hotels,
hoteliers have become
much more negative
than for the market as
a whole.
Especially the
predictions on
occupancy levels for
their own hotels saw a
big drop over the past
three months.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
33%
50%
17%
«MY HOTEL»
2 star
resort hotels
The barometers of the
2* resort sector are
coloured in red. On all
aspects a majority
predicts drops of more
than 5% in 2012.
For their own hotels
none of the hoteliers
expect increases in
occupancy and ARR
levels, while for the
market in general they
believe that there are
at least some hotels
who could improve
their performance.
51%
8%
8%
67% 17%
50%
18%
64% 18%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
49%
9%
18%
64%
9%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
2 star
resort hotels
This sector shows the
biggest gap in
predictions of October
2011 and January
2012 for this new
season.
Hoteliers have become
very negative for this
season and expect that
their performance will
be much worse this
year compared to
2011.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
51%
26%
15%
15%
15%
30%
«MY HOTEL»
Resort hotels
in Crete
The resort hotels in
Crete have been
positive throughout
2011 and they are still
positive on the outlook
for 2012. Hoteliers
believe that especially
their room rates will
improve in 2012.
In terms of occupancy
they are more
conservative, but still
optimistic for their own
properties. Stabilising
occupancy levels are
expected for the
market in general.
50%
35%
12%
4%
23%
27%
51%
35%
8%
15%
27%
15%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
15%
27%
8%
15%
35%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
Resort hotels
in Crete
Even though that resort
hoteliers in Crete have
been positive
throughout 2011 as
well as for 2012, they
also have become
more cautious in their
predictions in the last
three months.
Especially with respect
to occupancy levels for
the market as a whole,
which has just fallen
below the neutral line.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
51%
13%
10%
17%
30%
30%
«MY HOTEL»
City hotels
Contrary to the resort
hotels, the hoteliers of
the city hotels are
clearly pessimistic for
2012. 47% expect their
occupancy level to
drop with 2% or more
and 63% forecasts a
drop of 2% or more in
rooms rates for their
own hotels.
Overall they expect
that the market in
general will perform
even worse and
therefore the
barometers are deeply
red coloured.
50%
30%
15%
37%
10%
8%
50%
25%
33%
30%
4%
8%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
5%
3%
27%
38%
28%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
City hotels
In comparison with
three months ago
hoteliers have become
much more
pessimistic. At the end
of October 2011 they
were still slightly
positive on their
occupancy levels for
2012, but this optimism
has vanished in the
last three months.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
19%
10%
29%
14%
29%
«MY HOTEL»
5 star
city hotels
The 5* city hoteliers
show a mixed picture
in their occupancy level
predictions for their
own hotels. Overall,
they expect mild
decreases. In terms of
room rate development
the picture is clearly
negative as 62%
expects drops of 2% or
more for their own
hotels.
For the market in
general expectations
are negative for both
occupancy and ARR
levels.
50%
24%
14%
48%
5%
10%
50%
24%43%
29% 5%
5%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
51%
5%
5%
43%
24%
24%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
5 star
city hotels
At the end of October
2011 hoteliers were
hopeful on a positive
development of their
segment in 2012, with
the exception of room
rates for the market in
general.
Now, all predictions
have fallen below the
neutral line. Especially
for the market,
expectations have
turned clearly negative
in this segment.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
14%
10%
14%
38%
24%
«MY HOTEL»
4 star
city hotels
The 4* city hoteliers
remain very pessimistic
with 38% expecting
this year a drop in
occupancy of 5% or
more and 43% a drop
in rates of 5% or more
for their own hotel.
Similar levels are being
predicted for the
segment as a whole.
As a result hoteliers
are very pessimistic for
this year on their
performance.
50%
14%43%
33%
10%
50%
24%
14%
43%
10%
10%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
10%
29%
43% 19%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
4 star
city hotels
The predictions for the
market in general
remain more or less at
the same level as in
October 2011.
For their own hotels
they have adjusted
their forecast with
bigger drops in
occupancy and
especially in room
rates.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
14%
14%
10%
29%
33%
«MY HOTEL»
3 star
city hotels
The three star hoteliers
believe that occupancy
levels will decrease
slightly in 2012, while
more pressure is
expected on room
rates.
For the 3* market in
general the outlook is
more pessimistic with
expected drops in
occupancy as well as
ARR levels.
50%
43%
24%
19%
5%
10%
50%
38%
10%
29%
14%
10%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
51%
5%
5%
19%
29%
43%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
3 star
city hotels
Comparing October
2011 with January
2012 forecasts for this
year have become
more negative on
expected occupancy
level.
With respect to room
rates, the forecasts
remain at the same
negative level.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
«MY HOTEL»
50%
7%
14%
36%
43%
2 star
city hotels
The two star hoteliers
are not positive for
2012 as none predicts
increases of 5% or
more and only a few
expect some mild
increases.
Regarding room rate
developments for the
market in general,
none of the hoteliers
expect increases,
resulting in a very
negative climate for
2012 in this segment.
49%
21%
57%
14%
7%
50%
36%
14%
43%
7%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
7%
64%
29%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
2 star
city hotels
The graphs show that
in the last three months
the hoteliers in the 2
star city segment have
adjusted drastically
their forecasts and are
now clearly pessimistic
for 2012 with falling
occupancy and room
rate levels for their own
hotel as well as for the
segment as a whole.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
11%
11%
15%
41%
22%
«MY HOTEL»
Athens hotels
The Athenian hoteliers
are very pessimistic.
The barometers with
predictions of their own
hotels and the meters
of the market in
general are very similar
showing severe
expected drops in
occupancy levels as
well as room rates.
None of the hoteliers
expect increases of 5%
or more in room rates,
while very few predict
an increase of between
2 – 5%.
49%
11%
44%
37%
7%
50%
26%
15%
41%
11%
7%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
4%
30%
44%
22%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
Athens hotels
The Athenian hoteliers
remain pessimistic for
2012. In fact they have
become more negative
in the past three
months, possibly also
under influence of the
bad performance in
this period and the
economic climate in
general.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
14%
29%
21%
7%
29%
«MY HOTEL»
Thessaloniki
hotels
Contrary to Athens the
Thessaloniki hoteliers
are optimistic for next
season with expected
increases in occupancy
for their own hotel and
stabilising rates for the
segment as a whole.
The rates are expected
to be under pressure
though, where this is
expected to be higher
in the market in
general, where the
outlook is pessimistic.
51%
43%
43%
14%
50%
36%
14%
14%
29%
7%
49%
7%
36%
7%
50%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
Thessaloniki
hotels
Hoteliers in
Thessaloniki have
slightly adjusted their
predictions for 2012 in
the past three months,
but remain optimistic
for their own hotels.
For the market as
whole the climate has
turned negative
though, although this
was already the case
for room rates for the
market in general.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
50%
13%
3%
16%
32%
37%
«MY HOTEL»
Other city hotels
City hotels outside
Athens and
Thessaloniki expect
drops in occupancy as
well as room rates.
Hoteliers do believe
that they will perform
better than the market
in general, where
predictions are even
more pessimistic.
Drops of more than 2%
are expected by 58%
of hoteliers for
occupancy, while 66%
expect similar drops in
ARR levels.
51%
29%
37%
21%
3%
11%
50%
32%
16%
42%
3%
8%
«MARKET IN GENERAL»
50%
8%
3%
21%
45% 24%
ÎźCC ARR
ÎźCC ARR
Decrease
2 – 5%
Stability
-2% - +2%
Increase
>5%
Decrease
>5%
Increase
2 – 5%
% of respondents that expected
Expectations for 2012
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
My Hotel Market
0
50
100
Q4 2011 Q1 2012
Other city hotels
In October 2011
hoteliers were still
positive for 2012 in
terms of occupancy
development. This
optimism has turned
into pessimism in
January 2012. With
respect to ARR
hoteliers were not
optimistic, but their
predictions have
become more negative
in the past 3 months.
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Very
pessimistic
Very
optimistic
Occupancy
ARR
Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
4, Sekeri Street
106 74 Athens
Phone: +30 210 3605002
Fax: +30 210 3606935
Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr
Email: info@gbrconsulting.gr
Tourism Barometer
2012 Q1
Expectations
Greek Hospitality Sector

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GBR Tourism Barometer 2012 Q1

  • 1. Tourism Barometer 2012 Q1 Expectations of the Greek Hospitality Sector January 2012
  • 2. Survey characteristics • The Q4 Survey ran from 16 – 31 January 2012, among hotels of all hotel categories (1 – 5*) all over Greece; • The survey was anonymous and 210 hotels completed the online questionnaire, of which 172 fully. The distribution of those was as follows: – 48% are city hotels and 52% resort hotels; – 31% are 5*, 33% 4*, 17% 3*, 17% 2* and 3% 1* hotels. • The survey includes results for both 2012 Q1 (city hotels) and for the next season / 2012 (city & resort). The results are presented in separate sections. • Survey results are published in the press and on www.gbrconsulting.gr/barometer
  • 3. Main Conclusions • The city hotels are clearly pessimistic for the first quarter of 2012 with expected drops in occupancy and room rate levels. The hoteliers in Thessaloniki form an exception as they are more optimistic, especially on occupancy development, probably as the city hosts a large number of Libyans recuperating after the Civil War in Libya. • With respect to 2012, the hotel sector in general is pessimistic, while when we measured expectations for 2012 at the end of October 2011 (Q4 2011), hoteliers were overall slightly optimistic. Now three months later with PSI talks and negotiations with the Troika on a new package are under way with an uncertain outcome, hoteliers have turned negative on the performance of the sector in 2012. • Exceptions within the overall negative climate for 2012 are the 5 star resort hotels and to a lesser extent the 4 star resort hotels as well as the Thessaloniki hoteliers, who are still expecting positive developments of their occupancy and room rate levels, albeit at a lower level than when we measured in October 2011.
  • 4. 50.0% 7% 18% 19% 19% 37% • All the meters reflect the hoteliers’ projections for current Quarter with respect to Occupancy (OCC) and the Average Room Rate (ARR) for: – their Own Hotels, in the top half of each page – the Market Overall, in the bottom of each page How to read the Quarter meters 37% expects stabilisation – between -2% and +2% 18% expects an increase - between 2% and 5% 7% expects an increase – more than 5% 19% expects a decrease – more than 5% The needle shows the overall expectation / feeling1 19% expects a decrease – between 2% and 5% 1 The position of the arrow is based on the weighted average of the projections for increases and decreases, where the increases / decreases of more than 5% have a weight twice as high as the increases / decreases of between 2% and 5%
  • 5. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market How to read the Trend graphs At this point, hoteliers’ expectations are neutral. In the green zone, hoteliers are rather optimistic; the more we move into the green zone the more optimistic they become. In the red zone, hoteliers are rather pessimistic; the more we move into the red zone, the more pessimistic they become The bar height corresponds to the position of the arrow in the respective Quarter meter. Very pessimistic Very optimistic In the chart we compare the expectations for 2012 measured in Q4 2011 and Q1 2012
  • 6. Expectations for 2012 Q1 City Hotels
  • 7. 50% 13% 11% 12% 45% 20% «MY HOTEL» City hotels City hoteliers are clearly very pessimistic for the first quarter of 2012, which applies for their own hotels as well as for the market as a whole. As will be shown in the next slides, hoteliers in Thessaloniki are not that pessimistic and expect for their own hotels some growth in occupancy and stabilising rates. 49% 18%40% 27% 9% 7% 50% 7% 9% 20% 37% 27% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 2% 8% 26% 40% 24% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012 Q1
  • 8. 51% 10% 7% 10% 52% 21% «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels The barometers of the Athens hotels are red coloured. After a very bad December month the Athenian hoteliers expect a clear deterioration of occupancy levels and rooms rates this first quarter compared to the same quarter in 2011. All meters show a majority of hoteliers who expect significant decreases, where especially the room rates are expected to be under pressure. 49% 3% 55% 31% 10% 51% 7% 7% 28% 38% 21% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 7% 31% 48% 14% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012 Q1
  • 9. 49% 24% 24% 18% 6% 29% «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki hotels Contrary to the overall negative climate among city hoteliers, Thessaloniki is more optimistic especially on occupancy development, probably as the city hosts a large number of Libyans recuperating after the Civil War in Libya. For the market as a whole they are less optimistic, especially on the development of the room rates. 49% 41% 12% 35% 12% 49% 6% 24%18% 6% 47% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 12% 29% 6% 53% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012 Q1
  • 10. 49% 10% 8% 10% 58% 15% «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels Like the Athenian hoteliers, also the other city hoteliers are very pessimistic for this quarter. 68% expects a drop in occupancy and 67% a drop in room rates as far as their own hotel is concerned. A similar picture is shown for the market as a whole. Very few hoteliers expect improvements in their performance. 50% 18% 46% 21% 8% 8% 49% 8% 5% 15% 50% 23% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 5% 8% 21% 49% 18% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012 Q1
  • 12. 50% 12% 15% 15% 24% 34% «MY HOTEL» All hotels The hotel sector as a whole is negative on their performance in 2012, while three months ago they were still positive for this year (see next slide). Almost half of the hoteliers expect –for their own hotels – stabilisation or decreases up to 5% in occupancy as well as in ARR levels. For the market in general they are slightly more pessimistic. 49% 31% 27% 20% 13% 10% 50% 32% 17% 28% 15% 8% 51% 7% 12% 23% 29% 30% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected «MARKET IN GENERAL» Expectations for 2012
  • 13. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 All hotels When we measured the expectations for 2012 at the end of October 2011 (Q4 2011), hoteliers were slightly optimistic. A short positive impact of the October 26th European summit might have influenced the predictions. Now three months later with PSI talks and negotiations with the Troika on a new package are under way with an uncertain outcome, hoteliers have turned clearly negative on the performance of the sector in 2012. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 14. 51% 11% 19% 14% 19% 37% «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels The resort hoteliers are slightly pessimistic for the new season. They expect falling occupancy rates, but stabilising ARRs for their own hotels. For the market in general they are more pessimistic with more than half of the hoteliers expecting stabilising and decreasing occupancy and ARRs. 49% 37% 21% 10% 21% 11% 51% 34% 19% 20% 19% 9% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 8% 20% 19% 21% 32% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 15. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Resort hotels At the end of October 2011 resort hoteliers were among the most positive for 2012. However, now in January 2012 they have also turned negative for this season for both occupancy and room rate levels. Comparing the two surveys, the gap for the market as a whole is bigger than for their own hotels. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 16. 50% 12% 27% 6% 12% 44% «MY HOTEL» 5 star resort hotels The 5* resort sector is an exception in the overall negative climate as hoteliers predict rising occupancy levels and an even bigger improvement in their room rates. For the market as whole they believe that levels will stabilise in 2012. 51% 38% 12% 3% 32% 15% 51% 47% 15% 9% 21% 9% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 51% 9% 27%15% 12% 38% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 17. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 5 star resort hotels Even though hoteliers are still positive for developments in 2012, it is clear that the 5* resort sector has lost some of its optimism in the last three months. The gap between the two measurement points is the biggest in expectations on room rates for the market as whole. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 18. 51% 17% 22% 8% 14% 39% «MY HOTEL» 4 star resort hotels Also the four star resort hoteliers believe that the occupancy rates will improve in 2012 for their own hotels, while maintaining their rates more or less the same level. In the 4* resort sector in general, occupancies are expected to stabilise in comparison to 2011, while room rates are expected to slightly drop. 50% 42% 17% 8% 19% 14% 49% 33% 19% 14% 22% 11% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 8% 19% 22% 17% 33% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 19. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 4 star resort hotels With the exception of predictions on room rates for the market in general, the hoteliers in this segment still have a slightly positive outlook for 2012, albeit at a lower level than when we measured at the end of October 2011. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 20. 51% 43% 14% 42% «MY HOTEL» 3 star resort hotels The three star hotels expect to operate in 2012 at a much lower level than in 2011. Occupancy and room rates are expected to be under severe pressure this year. Remarkably, hoteliers predict that the market will outperform their own hotels in 2012. In most segments we see just the opposite. 51% 43% 14% 29% 14% 51% 29% 29% 14% 22% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 51% 29% 14% 14% 43% 51% 29% 14% 14% 43% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 21. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 3 star resort hotels Comparing the two measurement points, we indeed see that for their own hotels, hoteliers have become much more negative than for the market as a whole. Especially the predictions on occupancy levels for their own hotels saw a big drop over the past three months. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 22. 50% 33% 50% 17% «MY HOTEL» 2 star resort hotels The barometers of the 2* resort sector are coloured in red. On all aspects a majority predicts drops of more than 5% in 2012. For their own hotels none of the hoteliers expect increases in occupancy and ARR levels, while for the market in general they believe that there are at least some hotels who could improve their performance. 51% 8% 8% 67% 17% 50% 18% 64% 18% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 49% 9% 18% 64% 9% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 23. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 2 star resort hotels This sector shows the biggest gap in predictions of October 2011 and January 2012 for this new season. Hoteliers have become very negative for this season and expect that their performance will be much worse this year compared to 2011. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 24. 51% 26% 15% 15% 15% 30% «MY HOTEL» Resort hotels in Crete The resort hotels in Crete have been positive throughout 2011 and they are still positive on the outlook for 2012. Hoteliers believe that especially their room rates will improve in 2012. In terms of occupancy they are more conservative, but still optimistic for their own properties. Stabilising occupancy levels are expected for the market in general. 50% 35% 12% 4% 23% 27% 51% 35% 8% 15% 27% 15% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 15% 27% 8% 15% 35% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 25. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Resort hotels in Crete Even though that resort hoteliers in Crete have been positive throughout 2011 as well as for 2012, they also have become more cautious in their predictions in the last three months. Especially with respect to occupancy levels for the market as a whole, which has just fallen below the neutral line. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 26. 51% 13% 10% 17% 30% 30% «MY HOTEL» City hotels Contrary to the resort hotels, the hoteliers of the city hotels are clearly pessimistic for 2012. 47% expect their occupancy level to drop with 2% or more and 63% forecasts a drop of 2% or more in rooms rates for their own hotels. Overall they expect that the market in general will perform even worse and therefore the barometers are deeply red coloured. 50% 30% 15% 37% 10% 8% 50% 25% 33% 30% 4% 8% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 5% 3% 27% 38% 28% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 27. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 City hotels In comparison with three months ago hoteliers have become much more pessimistic. At the end of October 2011 they were still slightly positive on their occupancy levels for 2012, but this optimism has vanished in the last three months. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 28. 50% 19% 10% 29% 14% 29% «MY HOTEL» 5 star city hotels The 5* city hoteliers show a mixed picture in their occupancy level predictions for their own hotels. Overall, they expect mild decreases. In terms of room rate development the picture is clearly negative as 62% expects drops of 2% or more for their own hotels. For the market in general expectations are negative for both occupancy and ARR levels. 50% 24% 14% 48% 5% 10% 50% 24%43% 29% 5% 5% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 51% 5% 5% 43% 24% 24% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 29. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 5 star city hotels At the end of October 2011 hoteliers were hopeful on a positive development of their segment in 2012, with the exception of room rates for the market in general. Now, all predictions have fallen below the neutral line. Especially for the market, expectations have turned clearly negative in this segment. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 30. 50% 14% 10% 14% 38% 24% «MY HOTEL» 4 star city hotels The 4* city hoteliers remain very pessimistic with 38% expecting this year a drop in occupancy of 5% or more and 43% a drop in rates of 5% or more for their own hotel. Similar levels are being predicted for the segment as a whole. As a result hoteliers are very pessimistic for this year on their performance. 50% 14%43% 33% 10% 50% 24% 14% 43% 10% 10% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 10% 29% 43% 19% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 31. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 4 star city hotels The predictions for the market in general remain more or less at the same level as in October 2011. For their own hotels they have adjusted their forecast with bigger drops in occupancy and especially in room rates. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 32. 50% 14% 14% 10% 29% 33% «MY HOTEL» 3 star city hotels The three star hoteliers believe that occupancy levels will decrease slightly in 2012, while more pressure is expected on room rates. For the 3* market in general the outlook is more pessimistic with expected drops in occupancy as well as ARR levels. 50% 43% 24% 19% 5% 10% 50% 38% 10% 29% 14% 10% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 51% 5% 5% 19% 29% 43% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 33. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 3 star city hotels Comparing October 2011 with January 2012 forecasts for this year have become more negative on expected occupancy level. With respect to room rates, the forecasts remain at the same negative level. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 34. «MY HOTEL» 50% 7% 14% 36% 43% 2 star city hotels The two star hoteliers are not positive for 2012 as none predicts increases of 5% or more and only a few expect some mild increases. Regarding room rate developments for the market in general, none of the hoteliers expect increases, resulting in a very negative climate for 2012 in this segment. 49% 21% 57% 14% 7% 50% 36% 14% 43% 7% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 7% 64% 29% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 35. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 2 star city hotels The graphs show that in the last three months the hoteliers in the 2 star city segment have adjusted drastically their forecasts and are now clearly pessimistic for 2012 with falling occupancy and room rate levels for their own hotel as well as for the segment as a whole. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 36. 50% 11% 11% 15% 41% 22% «MY HOTEL» Athens hotels The Athenian hoteliers are very pessimistic. The barometers with predictions of their own hotels and the meters of the market in general are very similar showing severe expected drops in occupancy levels as well as room rates. None of the hoteliers expect increases of 5% or more in room rates, while very few predict an increase of between 2 – 5%. 49% 11% 44% 37% 7% 50% 26% 15% 41% 11% 7% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 4% 30% 44% 22% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 37. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Athens hotels The Athenian hoteliers remain pessimistic for 2012. In fact they have become more negative in the past three months, possibly also under influence of the bad performance in this period and the economic climate in general. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 38. 50% 14% 29% 21% 7% 29% «MY HOTEL» Thessaloniki hotels Contrary to Athens the Thessaloniki hoteliers are optimistic for next season with expected increases in occupancy for their own hotel and stabilising rates for the segment as a whole. The rates are expected to be under pressure though, where this is expected to be higher in the market in general, where the outlook is pessimistic. 51% 43% 43% 14% 50% 36% 14% 14% 29% 7% 49% 7% 36% 7% 50% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected «MARKET IN GENERAL» Expectations for 2012
  • 39. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Thessaloniki hotels Hoteliers in Thessaloniki have slightly adjusted their predictions for 2012 in the past three months, but remain optimistic for their own hotels. For the market as whole the climate has turned negative though, although this was already the case for room rates for the market in general. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 40. 50% 13% 3% 16% 32% 37% «MY HOTEL» Other city hotels City hotels outside Athens and Thessaloniki expect drops in occupancy as well as room rates. Hoteliers do believe that they will perform better than the market in general, where predictions are even more pessimistic. Drops of more than 2% are expected by 58% of hoteliers for occupancy, while 66% expect similar drops in ARR levels. 51% 29% 37% 21% 3% 11% 50% 32% 16% 42% 3% 8% «MARKET IN GENERAL» 50% 8% 3% 21% 45% 24% ÎźCC ARR ÎźCC ARR Decrease 2 – 5% Stability -2% - +2% Increase >5% Decrease >5% Increase 2 – 5% % of respondents that expected Expectations for 2012
  • 41. 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 My Hotel Market 0 50 100 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Other city hotels In October 2011 hoteliers were still positive for 2012 in terms of occupancy development. This optimism has turned into pessimism in January 2012. With respect to ARR hoteliers were not optimistic, but their predictions have become more negative in the past 3 months. Very pessimistic Very optimistic Very pessimistic Very optimistic Occupancy ARR Expectations 2012: Q4 2011 versus Q1 2012
  • 42. 4, Sekeri Street 106 74 Athens Phone: +30 210 3605002 Fax: +30 210 3606935 Web: www.gbrconsulting.gr Email: info@gbrconsulting.gr Tourism Barometer 2012 Q1 Expectations Greek Hospitality Sector