Presentations from The Future of Transport: Challenges and Opportunities

1. Priorities for Transport in a Growing London
The Future of Transport:
Challenges and Opportunities
Thursday, 10 November 2016
#FoLMTS

2. 9:00 Welcome
9:10 Val Shawcross, Deputy Mayor for Transport
9:30 Panel presentations
Lucinda Turner, Acting Director of Borough Planning, TfL
Richard de Cani, Planning Leader, Arup
Mark Frost, Head of Traffic & Transport, LB Hounslow
10:10 Moderated discussion
Chair: Lisa Taylor, Chief Executive, Future of London
10:30 Networking & close
Agenda

3. Val Shawcross
Deputy Mayor for Transport
#FoLMTS

4. The Future of Transport: Our Priorities
Valerie Shawcross CBE
Deputy Mayor for Transport
10 November 2016

5. Transport sits at the heart of the Mayor’s priorities
• Fairer for all: cheaper fares
• Better air quality
• Healthy Streets
• Housing & regeneration
• Inclusive and accessible

6. We’ve started as we mean to go on…
• Air quality consultation
• Rail devolution
• Taxi & Private Hire Action Plan
• Night Tube
• River crossings
• Safer Lorry Scheme

7. Mayor’s Transport Strategy
Creating a transport system that:
• Delivers a good public transport
experience
• Delivers safe and pleasant places
• Supports the economy, new homes
and jobs

8. Major projects
• River crossings
• Crossrail & Crossrail 2
• Tube & station upgrades
• Northern Line extension
• Bakerloo Line extension

10. Integrated and accessible transport
• All Londoners and visitors can travel
with ease
• Our proposals include:
• Underground
• Buses and stops
• Training
• New rail lines

11. • Fares freeze
• The new ‘Hopper’ ticket
• Protecting concessions
Fares

12. Healthy Streets
• A new framework to shape our
approach to streets
• Naturally prioritises walking,
cycling & public transport
• Vision Zero
• Oxford Street & Parliament
Square

13. Air quality
• Consultation received over 14,000
responses
• Our proposals included:
• Bringing forward ULEZ to 2019
• Expanding the zone in 2020
• “T” Charge
• Diesel scrappage scheme
• Clean bus programme

14. Reforming TfL
• New TfL board
• Savings and efficiencies
• Improving customer service &
information

15. Thank you
val.shawcross@london.gov.uk

16. Lucinda Turner
Acting Director of Borough Planning, TfL
#FoLMTS

19. Clear
leadership from
the Mayor on
key issues

20. Travel demand is forecast to increase by six million trips a day

21. 21

22. 1. Development of TfL (and public sector) land for commercial/ housing
use
2. Support growth within Opportunity Areas and Housing Zones by
overcoming transport constraints and unlock housing and
employment growth
3. Make the most of existing networks & town centres – e.g. tube
network upgrades, devolution and ‘metroisation’ of suburban rail
networks in south London (‘Station Intensification Areas’)
4. Deliver new capacity through new schemes e.g. Crossrail 2, Bakerloo
Line Extension, Elizabeth Line, DLR or tram extensions (‘Transport
Growth Corridors’)

26. In Strictest Confidence

28. 28
• Additional funding mechanisms will be required to meet the capital
costs of enhancements and new project delivery
• Innovative funding packages for schemes such as Crossrail and the
Northern Line Extension to Battersea Power Station
• Building a funding proposition for Crossrail 2 that includes a mix of
land and business taxes - target of at least 50% funded from London
sources
• TfL is discussing potential mechanisms for Land Value Capture with
the GLA & government

31. Richard de Cani
Planning Leader, Arup
#FoLMTS

32. Transport and Development
Richard de Cani, Arup Planning Leader

33. Transport and development
Transport is key to unlocking development and creating new parts of the City

34. Integration of land Use and Transport
For the past 25 or so years – integrating development and transport has been a major
flank of planning policy in London
This has been achieved through a combination of:
• Planning policies and decisions relating to new development;
• Targeted investment in infrastructure – aligned with planning policy;
• Demand management policies; and
• Supportive market conditions.

35. What does this mean in a future London context?
- More people means more travel
- Our travel is more diverse and varied with even greater choice
- This growth cannot be accommodated on the road network
- We need more homes – at least 50,000 per year
- Our opportunities for growing the city outwards are limited – so growth within
means higher densities
- Citizen and customer expectations about quality of life and choice are much
higher
- The traditional approach to funding infrastructure has changed
The “known knowns”

36. One trend that must continue……
A growing city means more travel but this must be accommodated by public
transport, walking and cycling
People and jobs
Car trips
Public transport, walking and cycling

37. 37
A study by the Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics published in
2007 found:
8.6% overall mean impact of a railway station on property values within 400m
of a station*
16.4% price differential for commercial properties within 400m of a station*,
but negligible impact on commercial values beyond this range
4.2% price differential for residential properties within 400m of a station*,
and positive impact on residential values up to 1000m from a station
*Compared to properties beyond 400m range
Evidence supporting impact of transport investment on land values
1,00
0m
400
m
+16.4
%
~ nil
+4.2% Positive
400m 1,000
m
Transport means value

38. The changing role of transport?
• Transport is an integral component of the economic and social success of a city or
place.
• In London, transport is much more than moving people from A to B – it drives the
economic success of the city and contributes to its unique character that in turn
drives economic and social change

39. Transport as an Integrator

40. The opportunity for London
- Maximise the development potential of transport nodes and stations
- Development of these sites will help deliver the transport and environmental
outcomes that are needed
- In turn, this supports higher densities
- This can transform the quality of transport facilities for the user and generate
value for the authority
- And create development in locations where many people want to live

41. How can we deliver transport investment, housing, regeneration – all at once?
Does this mean a different perspective on transport ?

42. Bringing multiple disciplines together to structure the deal: planning, masterplanning,
corporate finance, railway design, station design and over-station development
Transport generates value
Citywide level:
sales tax, tolls, fares
Local area TIF/ Enterprise
Zone to capture positive
impact for businesses
Rail/developer JV for the
station redevelopment
Land sales around the
station
Retail revenue within
station
Access charges for operators;
fares supplements

43. Defining something that works for London?

44. A new plan for stations as development zones
…..and deployed across the City

45. Looking forward not backwards

46. How to maximise the opportunity
- A combination of accessibility; value, public land and market opportunity are the right
ingredients to have in place
- But planning policy should be more focused and specific on what it is seeking to achieve
in these locations – clarity on use/mix/scale/density/obligations
- Public land should be pooled and consolidated with help available to address constraints
- Transport operators should have the right incentives in place
- Benefits to the public and community articulated from the outset

47. What this means for the new Mayor’s Transport
Strategy and London Plan
- The new Mayor’s Transport Strategy and London Plan could set a new standard for
integration of transport and development
- More specific and internationalist with the ability to secure the right outcomes for London
- Capturing value to reinvest in transport
- Creating a step change in quality
- Delivering at scale with pace

48. Mark Frost
Head of Traffic & Transport, LB Hounslow
#FoLMTS

49. A New MTS
A borough perspective
Mark Frost
Head of Traffic & Transport
Thursday, 10 November 2016

50. A New MTS – A Borough Perspective
• Requested to consider the challenges that need to be
addressed through a new MTS from a borough
perspective
• Specifically, the role the transport network plays in
delivering on local authority aspirations for:
i) New jobs and homes
ii) Improved public health

51. Transport & Regeneration
• Transport key to delivering ambitious regional and local
strategies for new homes and jobs in London’s borders.
• LB Hounslow promoting schemes around Heathrow and
Brentford that could deliver up to 10,000 new homes and
30,000 new jobs.
• Without transport investment that total would be closer to
5,000 new jobs and 3,000 new homes.
• Boroughs 'get it' - new kit only likely if it is going to unlock
housing (1st priority) jobs (2nd?)
• Boroughs also get that availability of public sector funding
for scheme increasingly limited – innovative ‘cocktails’ of
financing necessary
• Opportunities to cost-effectively develop new infrastructure
to facilitate growth exist, perhaps particularly in outer
London where there is also good opportunities to achieve
actual modal shift given low base PTAL
• Across the west sub-region for example a number of
ambitious but affordable schemes have been identified that
would act to create space for new development
‘Some of the best projects
are small scale - tackling
bottlenecks in the existing
network’ - Rod Eddington,
2006

52. Hounslow – Old Oak London
Overground Extension
4tph Hounslow to Old Oak Common
via Brentford including a new station at
Lionel Road
BCR c4.99:1
CAPEx c£20m
Operational date: 2025/6
Funding required for further feasibility:
£1.05m
Southall Crossrail Link
3tph shuttle service between
Brentford Golden Mile to Southall
Crossrail station.
BCR c3:1
Capex c£41m
Operational date: 2021
Funding required for further
feasibility: £1m
LB Hounslow – Strategic Rail Schemes

53. CAPEX Comparison (2014)
Scheme No of jobs per £m invested No of homes per £m
invested
NLE to Battersea
£868m
c17000 jobs c7500 homes
19.6 8.6
Jubilee Extension
£5.1Bn
c32,000 jobs c16,500 homes
6.4 3.3
Overground extension to Barking
£180m
C10,000 homes
N/A 55.6
Overground at Old Oak Common
£500m (TfL preferred solution)
+ c25,000 jobs
50 N/A
Brentford Golden Mile
c£100m
c18,000 jobs C2,500 homes
180 25
Economic assessment of these mid-priced schemes usually reveals Benefit:Cost
Ratios far in excess of those being recorded for ‘mega’ schemes such as Crossrail
2, or schemes designed to solely facilitate better access to CAZ…

54. Southern Rail Access to Heathrow
CAPEX c£700-£1bn
Unlock potential of up to 16,000
new jobs and 8,000 new homes

55. Transport & Regeneration - funding
• In most cases these schemes may be financed solely, or largely, from income
from new developments, or borrowing against future income. Income may
include:
– S106 & CIL (including introduction of localised CIL tariffs linked to specific
infrastructure)
– Uplift in existing business rates + new business rate income generated from
development
– Leveraging public assets (e.g. JVs with developers)
– Business contributions, including potential localised Workplace Parking
Levys
• Borrowing can come from traditional sources such as Public Works Loan Board,
but note increasing diversity in this field including newly established UK Municipal
Bonds Association and institutional investors looking for lower risk payback
vehicles
• Challenge is in progressing these schemes from outline design through the
consents process: no one wants to fund an idea.
• Funding required to do this usually exceeds that available from boroughs
• Designing payback vehicles suitable for third party investment is also
challenging: skills gap?
• How many other such promising schemes are there across outer London that fall
at this stage?

56. Don’t forget about
buses!
• Buses are also central to unlocking new
development.
• Even with new heavy rail services the
PTAL of an area can be seen to move
slightly from 1 to 2.
• It is only when you layer on new bus
services on top of this that higher PTALs
are achievable.
• Without higher PTALs achievable new
development densities are much lower.

57. Transport & Public Health – Creating
‘Healthy Streets’
• Any reading of the ‘Healthy Streets’
concept means less cars, and certainly less
polluting ones – no more ‘modal
agnosticism’!
• A reduction in car traffic cannot be
achieved through improved public realm
alone: ‘sticks’ are required in the form of
parking controls or even more
controversially access restrictions/charging
that increase generalised cost of car travel
• Political courage is required…
• Challenge will be to ensure some level of
buy-in from those more sceptical authorities
and effective incentives and support for
those boroughs who do wish to push
forward with this agenda.
• Where possible the use of trials and natural
experiments should be pursued to help
gain community buy-in to more
transformative schemes
Source: Lucy Saunders

58. Transport & Public Health – Creating
‘Healthy Streets’
• To improve evidence base available to
practitioners, NICE is currently updating
their guidance on Physical Activity &
Environment
• Welcome evidence on interventions that
deliver shift to active travel modes, and in
particular any analysis of negative
externalities that occur as a consequence
(e.g. traffic displacement, equalities
considerations etc)
• Public health teams being co-located
within local authorities raised profile of
this agenda.
• Evidence of co-funding of interventions
now increasingly common
• Reduction in funding for TfL may
particularly impact on revenue elements
such as Road Safety Education – how to
fill this gap and achieve Vision Zero?

59. Conclusions
• A number of mid-sized transport schemes exist that could deliver significant space for new
homes and jobs in London, particularly in outer boroughs
• These schemes are beyond the scope of most authorities to progress, but not of sufficient
size or scale to gain attention of regional or national bodies
• Funding feasibility of promising schemes remains the key constraint – capital may be
covered by development they unlock. An increased allocation to a London Growth Fund?
• Boroughs are increasingly looking at innovative funding solutions – support in the
technical elements of such arrangements would be welcomed.
• Can we stop ignoring Heathrow now?
• Buses are equally important in increasing PTAL and realising higher densities
• Healthy Streets is a positive concept but with some difficult practical political challenges at
the regional and local level.
• Incentives for those authorities who want to push the boundaries may help practical
realisation of the concept.
• New guidance to help decision makers in this field is required, being progressed by NICE
and others.
• Pooling resources with public health to tackle some of these issues is now essential

60. Thank you.
Mark Frost
Head of Traffic & Transport
Mark.Frost@hounslow.gov.uk

61. Moderated discussion
Chair: Lisa Taylor, Chief Executive,
Future of London
#FoLMTS

62. Next steps
23 Nov: MTS Workshop, Major Projects
1 Dec: Workspace matching event
6 Dec: MTS Workshop, Community Projects
6 Dec: Fizz ‘n’ Chips Christmas Party
#FoLMTS

63. Thank you
futureoflondon.org.uk
@futureofldn
#FoLMTS