Future Foundation May 2013 conference highlights

Where The Truth Lies
Future Foundation nVision client conference
Presentation Highlights
May 2013

Smart Trends
Top Five Themes for the Short Term
Barry Clark, Account Director
May 2013

3
Less resource to protect consumers
Source: National Audit Office
Source: Which? Press release, 11th April 2012
Enforcement
Spend
2012
“...a shockingly ill-conceived and under-
resourced plan from Government that looks
set to vandalise a system of consumer
protection that is admired worldwide...”
Peter Vicary-Smith, CEO, Which?
£247m
Enforcement
Spend
2014 £140m

4
Why are we talking about this in 2013?
Source: Population Projections, National Statistics/nVision, UK, 2012
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Age
Individuals
2012

5
Annuity horibilis
Income Gilt yields
2008 £6,435 4.51%
2013 £4,836 2.47%
Source: This Is Money, 2013 / Male aged 65 £100,000 purchase, guaranteed 5 years and level payments

6
Gen Y4G: Risky Business?
Source: nVision Research | Base: 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013
2009
43%
2013
53%
“I am prepared to take significant
risks to have what I want...”

7
Having a drink in the last week
Source: ONS General Lifestyle Survey overview , March 2013 (based on 2011 survey)
2005
Men
Women
2011
Men
Women
72%
66%
57%
54%

8
Increasingly short measures
Source: ONS General Lifestyle Survey overview , March 2013 (based on 2011 survey)
2005
Men
Women
2011
Men
Women
Heavy drinking
(8 units + single day)
72%
66%
57%
54%
23%
18%
15%
12%

9
What drives sobriety?
I am
too fat
I spend
too much
I drink
too much
1 in 5
men
2 in 5 1 in 3

Brainstorms at bedtime
Katie Toll, Head of Research
May 2013

11
Bedtime is being redefined
Source: The Future Foundation/Tablet Consortium | Base: 2,400 tablet owners aged 16+, GB, 2013
61%
Use a tablet
in the bedroom
87%
16-24s
“iPlayer usage, for streaming, peaks about
10pm – just a little later from TV. But
interestingly, iPlayer on the iPhone peaks
at about midnight. So people are clearly
going to bed with their iPhone and
watching in bed.”
Anthony Rose, Former Head of BBC iPlayer

12
Surge in usage of devices at bedtime
Source: The Future Foundation/Tablet Consortium | Base: 1,960 tablet and smartphone owners aged 16+, GB, 2013
At which times of day do you
generally use the following devices?
22.00
onwards
16.00-18.00
14.00-16.00
12.00-14.009.00-12.00
7.00-9.00
14.1%
19.2%
33.0%
37.6%
46.8%
55.9%
49.7%
64.1%
37.9%
41.6%
51.8%
43.0%
38.1%
33.2%
52.1%
27.3%
26.9%
27.2%
57.4%
25.6%
30.7%
28.9%
55.6%
22.3%
17.1%
15.6%
61.5%
24.9%
18.00-22.00

13
Reality of the work-life merge
Source: Labour Market Statistics, National Statistics/nVision | Base: all aged 16+, UK, 2012
Q4 1992: 38.1
Q4 2012: 37.3
Average full-time
working hours
“It’s now 9.30pm and I am working
on my computer, simply because it
fits in better with my daily
schedule and gives me a lot more
flexibility. I don’t think I actually
do more work, simply I can do it
when it pleases me or I feel like it”
Female, 67, Spain

14
Constant connectivity
Tablet owner
Non-tablet owner
Check work
emails in bed
Check personal
emails in bed
17%
7%
30%
18%
Browse the
internet in bed
32%
18%
68% of UK 25-34s never turn their mobile phone off
“Technology has definitely resulted in people doing more work in their
free time, for example I check emails on the bus on the way to work in
order to have some of them cleared by the time I get to the office.”
Female, 27, London, UK

15
Brainstorms at Bedtime – Final thoughts
 We feel we work longer hours and are under increased time pressure.
 Increasingly we feel a self-imposed obligation to respond immediately to
email / digital communications – both work and social.
Social norm:
 Working hours and time pressure remained constant over past decade.
 We are struggling to work out how to manage the work-life merge and
when we’re supposed to do what.
Reality:
 Find ways to manage constant connectivity.
 Choose when to engage actively v passively with technology.
 Find the perfect blend of work and personal life.
Resolution:

The Power of Quiet
Meabh Quoirin, Managing Director
May 2013

17
% agree or agree strongly | 2013
“Sometimes I feel the need to get away from phone
calls, emails and text messages and switch off”
The Power of Quiet
Source: nVision Research | Base: 2,200 - 5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013
60%
Baby boomers
58%
Gen Y
60%
Gen X
65%
Difference
Gender
1%
Wealth
0.5%
Rural vs. Inner city
2%
Networked
1%

18
“I often need to switch off completely/escape...”
The Power of Quiet
Check work emails in bed
53% 63% 64% 64%
Never Occasionally Regularly Every day
“Silence is definitely seen as hip
and trendy, but only because
busy people ‘need’ it.”
Female, 23

19
Crave escape
Quiet production
The Power of Quiet
65%
Strongly
56%
Moderately
34%
Never
Need a hobby I love
Crave escape
Be the
best
66%
Be more
creative
73%
Find more
excitement
73%
Strong
need to...

20
The Power of Quiet – Final thoughts
The Power of Quiet
 Quiet is critical. In increasing demand to balance our busy lives.
 It’s aspirational, associated with luxury and in short supply.
Social norm:
 It’s a fundamental demand for everyone.
 It’s not needed because we’re doing too much.
 We want it so that we can do more. Different things.
Reality:
 We can have it all. Just not like the 90s.
 Use it as a route to self-improvement & better performance.
 Quiet is fashionable. And it’s here to stay.
Resolution:

.THNG
Kerry Rheinstein, Account Director
May 2013

22.THNG
Cisco 2012 The Internet of Things
2003 2010 2015 2020
500 million
connected
devices
6.3 billion
people 7.6 billion
people
50 billion
connected
devices

23
Saving time with technology
.THNG
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 -2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012
12
6
39
Total
population
47%

24
Interested in networked service
(smart fridge, self-parking car)
.THNG
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000 -2,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2012
101010101101011010
101010001001011010
1010101001001111010
1101010101011010010010
101010101101011010
101010001001011010
1010101001001111010
Total Population
55%

25
.THNG – Final thoughts
.THNG
 Technology can sometimes create unnecessary complexity
 We believe we understand the potential of .THNG, turning dumb
devices smart
Social norm:
 But, we are actually only beginning to grasp the potential of .THNG
 Networked devices have the potential to be life game changers
Reality:
 Companies will have to understand and utilise the potential => invitation
for innovation
 Technology hold the answers? More on this during the nVitro scan
Resolution:

Forecasting for the medium term
Britain: a rag doll forever tossed by global forces?
Richard Nicholls, Editor, nVision
May 2013

27
Sideways (ish)
Source: Oxford Economics/nVision, UK, 2013
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Real GDP, indexed to
pre-recession maximum

28
Inflation is too high and earnings growth is too low
Source: National Statistics/nVision 2013
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
Earnings growth (nominal)
Inflation (CPI)

29
Where the inflation lies
Source: Oxford Economics/nVision, 2013
11%
17%
20%
30%
12%
-8%
10%
13%
17%
27%
32%
46%
30%
12%
45%
52%
Total
Transport
Alcoholic drinks & tobacco
Electricity, gas, fuel
Food and non-alc. drinks
Communications
Education
Insurance
UK
Eurozone
Total increase in
price level, 2007 to
2012, selected
categories

30
Corporate Reawakening – a medium term driver?
2007
10.9%
2008
-0.2%
2009
-14.4%
2010
-0.4%
2011
3.1%
2012
4.2%
2013
3.6%
2014
5.2%
2015
6.9%
2016
7.0%
2017
6.3%
2018
3.9% 2019
2.7%
2020
2.6%
% growth in real private
sector investment

31
The Productivity Puzzle
 Why is unemployment so moderate and
GDP performance so weak?
 Not due to labour hoarding - job
creation has been high.
 Neither is it explained by economic
inactivity / part-time work.
 Fall in real wages is a factor.
 Misallocation of capital is another.
 There could be under-reporting of GDP.
In some sectors (construction, transport)
industry surveys are more positive than
official statistics.
 Upward revisions to GDP data are
possible.

32
7%
8%
8%
8%
10%
11%
12%
14%
16%
25%
Total
Hotels and accommodation
Purchase of vehicles
Food
Non-electronic major durables
Household appliances
Communications
Misc. recreational goods
Clothing and footwear
Computers, cameras, etc.
Spending growth
Spending
growth
forecast
2016 vs. 2013,
in constant prices

33
The regional picture
Source: National Statistics/nVision, 2013
67%
72%
66%
75%
69%
75%
70%
70%
71%
71%
75%
70%
Employment rate
All aged 16-64

34
Other distributional patterns
 Income distribution:
 It is hard for spending cuts to avoid
hitting the poorer harder.
 Some high-skilled sectors likely to see
growth (high-tech, professional services).
 Age distribution:
 The young face special pressures : high
unemployment, education fees, high
house prices, rising rents...
 ...and many need to turn to their Boomer-
generation parents for greater support.
 Older generation: high wealth vs. weak
annuities.

35
An export-led recovery... but it didn’t last
2008
1%
2009
-8%
2010
6%
2011
5%
2012
-0.2%
2013
-0.3%
2014
3%
2015
4%
2016
5%
Growth in exports in real terms

36
Central forecasts
2013 2014 2015 2016
GDP growth 0.9% 1.8% 2.4% 2.8%
Consumer spending growth 1.2% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Inflation 2.7% 2.1% 1.8% 1.6%
Unemployment rate 8.1% 8.2% 7.9% 7.4%
In the short term: a slow consumer recovery.
In the medium term: moderate growth, but this
depends on a number of factors...

37
The Productivity
Puzzle:
Is the economy less
weak than we think it is?
Exports:
Can the UK export more
to emerging markets?
Austerity:
Will it be softened in the
UK (and elsewhere)?
Saving/spending:
A fall in the saving ratio
(and a rise in
confidence) would help
Commodity prices:
Inflation depends on
domestic & external
factors
Strength of
advanced markets:
Eurozone, US, Japan
What will medium term growth depend on?
Images cc : Horia Varlan, Jed Sullivan, Images_of_Money, 401(K) 2013, KevinLallier, openDemocracy

The Uses of Celebrity Culture
Parimal Makwana, Editor nVision UK
May 2013

39
Celebrity culture: more and more intimate
Source: nVision Research | Base: 1,000-5,000 online respondents aged 16+, GB, 2013
nVision Qualitative Research 2013
“With celebrity culture today it’s almost as if
celebrities are our friends, or relatives –
that’s how often we see pictures of them.”
Female, 23, London
“Celebrities should
give up their right to
individual privacy”
48%

40
familiarity
“Of course if you see a familiar face in an advert
you pay more attention since it is a bit like
seeing a friend.” Female, 23, UK
fascination
“I think it is a form of escapism, a little like
watching a soap opera.” Female, 27, UK
emulation
“We are led to believe that these women are
perfect and that we should try to be like them.”
Female, 27, UK
aspiration
“It could be suggested that some celebrity
figures influence me and my friends’ lives, often
serving as inspiration to us.” Male, 34, UK
Celebrity influence: multiple levels
nVision Qualitative Research 2013

41
Summary
 We don’t really care what famous people do nor are we really
influenced by them
Social norm:
 Celeb-watching is a national pastime
 Beyond our gleeful fascination celebrity inspires us
Reality:
 Celebrity influence has range: fun/familiar to trendsetting
 Get closer: authentic narratives strengthen the iconic
influence of celebrities
 Move with celebrity culture: it is an adaptable beast
Resolution:

Nick Chiarelli, Key Account Director
May 2013
An update on maximising

43
Consumers feel they ought to maximise
(and be seen maximising)
51%
I really/somewhat
enjoy talking about
products /services I
have recently bought
at a really good price
“These days you feel
slightly stupid if you turn
up to Zizzi, or Pizza
Express, or Prezzo or any
of those chains without a
voucher or a code.
You can just imagine the
waiters thinking how crazy
you are to be paying the
full price.”
Female, aged 47, Surrey

44
Sometimes consumers deliberately
opt not to maximise
Indulgence
61%
It's really important that I can treat
myself when I want
Luxury
31%
prepared to pay full price for good
customer service
Convenience
74% of mums
are interested in a home delivery
service which brings the groceries to
my door at precisely the time I prefer
Authenticity
53%
I would rather buy something
handcrafted than mass-produced

45
An update on maximising – Final thoughts
 Maximising is becoming tech-enabled second nature to today’s savvy
and hyper rational shopper.
Social norm:
 Not all purchases are (or will ever be) maximised.
 Maximising involves a strong emotional component.
 It is in danger of becoming consumers’ default expectation.
 Algorithms will further distance consumers from the joy of maximising.
Reality:
 Spotting a maximiser mindset in-store will be key.
 Bring back the thrill of the hunt
Resolution:

The Myth of Protest
Christophe Jouan CEO
May 2013

47
Strongly agree
Consumer radicalism – Driven by whom?
The Myth of Protest
“Companies should
be penalised for
failing to care for
the environment”
“British people today should
be more angry about high
bonuses paid to City of
London bankers”
Gen Y Gen X Baby boomers
48%
37%
54%
18-24s
2013
18%
2009
22%
2007
26%
2013
19%
2013
48%

48
Safety & Security
The (strong) need to do something dangerous
Rules &
regulations
% in favour of
increased
regulation
So what is society about?
The Myth of Protest
8%
2001
2004
2007 2011
2013
7%
6% 6%
16-24 years old
19%
13%
2011
2013
5%
Baby
boomers
Gen XGen Y
“A pregnant woman found smoking in a public
place should be given a caution by a police officer”
31%45% 20%
70%

49
The Myth of Protest – Final thoughts
 People have become very angry.
 They are increasingly willing to engage and protest.
 Brands that incur the wrath of consumers will suffer badly.
Social norm:
 There is some real anger about some issues...but NO real sign of
radicalism and protest on a big scale.
 Many campaigns local in scope & therefore niche in interest.
 Gen Y least likely to engage beyond ‘pop radicalism’.
Reality:
 Need for CSR beyond hygiene factors?
 Pop radical – rebellion within a ‘safe’ framework.
 Brand to provide reassurance: safety, security and consumer control.
Resolution:

The nVitro Scan
Dominic Harrison, Head of Global Trends
From Here to Eternity:
Will Seymour, Editorial Analyst
May 2013

51From Here to Eternity: The nVitro Scan
Self-powering devices
Create and 3D print at home
Wearable computing
Monitored bodies, lifestyles, homes
Next-generation interfaces
Networked people, products
Flexible, conductive materials

54
She’s played 7 hours this week.
Is she ready to play the bass
solo from You Can Call Me Al?
Are you kidding?
OK, I’ll get the backing track
for Seven Nation Army.
From Here to Eternity: The nVitro Scan
Networked Data

55
“In November 2011, when Apple launched the iPhone 4S,
they put in Bluetooth Smart... they gave an unprecedented
amount of access to the radio, so you could really start to
create very custom accessories.”
Robert Milner, Cambridge Consultants

56
“For the user it’s freeing
them up, helping them to
do more advanced things
by using less of their time.”
Robert Milner,
Cambridge Consultants
Computers learn human

Beyond 20/20
Jason Mander, Head of Insight
May 2013

58
Recognition from others
Beyond 20/20
Social networkers
Others
41%
41%
Social networkers
Others
34%
23%
Moderately
Strongly

59
% who are social networkers
Beyond 20/20
Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals aged 16+, GB, May 2013 forecast
16-24s
+4%
65+
+15%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
16-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65+
2008 | 2013 | 2020(f)

60
33% 73%
Mobile networking
Beyond 20/20
2013
2020
Source: nVision Research | Base: All individuals 16+, GB, May 2013 forecast

61
Society of Sobriety
Beyond 20/20
De-tagging photos
Total: 40%
Smokers: 61%
Drinkers: 68%
Need to look good
Networkers: 63%
Smokers: 72%
Drinkers: 71%

62Beyond 20/20
Mean age of mother at birth
1990 2020
27.7 30.3
Average age at first marriage
1990 2020
25.2 30.5
Life delayed
Source: National Statistics/nVision | Base: England and Wales, May 2013 forecast
Source: Population Trends, National Statistics/nVision, UK, May 2013 forecast

63
Ageless beauty
Beyond 20/20
Source: Eurostat/nVision, 2012
“People should make
an effort to look their
best at any age”
Total: 69%
65+: 83%
Population over 65 (millions)
2000
9.3
2010
10.2
2020
12.4
1990
9.0

nLightenment nVision-style
James Murphy, Editorial Director
May 2013

65nLightenment nVision-style
How is Insight influenced/improved
by the play of publicly available ideas?
Are there any Silver Bullets?
New and better propositions and techniques
by which to understand consumer behaviour?
Under the lens of these organised commentaries,
what does the future seem to hold?
The nLighten Focus on Trends

66
We might also ask...
Is the quality of technological innovation being matched by
similar creativity and precision in the field of:
 Understanding of consumer need and motive?
 Socio-economic prediction?
 Trend identification and trend application inside strategy?

67
Do we notice anything about
modern insight literature?
 Much of it depends too heavily on
marketing anecdote (e.g. the
disaster of New Coca Cola) in
order to prove the validity of a
solitary idea.
 Too often, consumers are
compared to people taking part in
psychological tests (e.g. the
Milgram Experiment).
 Academic journals are trawled for
often tired and limited case studies.

68
Do we notice anything about
modern insight literature?
 There is a tendency for themes which
are hip-and-happening to be favoured
by the publishing and authoring
community – a hit parade effect not
always capturing the best music.
 Social and cultural problems often
seem exaggerated for dramatic
emphasis.
 There can be too much of the
Consultant’s Itch: something must
be wrong and I can fix it.

69
Ideas impact the regulatory environment:
re-shaping the prospects for trends

70
Two FF trends: influenced by the battle of ideas…
The Cult of
Immediacy…
the observation that
grateful anticipation of
future satisfaction has
long since been extirpated
from the consumer
psyche.
Murdered By
Modernity…
the assumption that the
future is to contain ever
more pathologies of a
inevitably pernicious kind.

71nLightenment nVision-style
Strong Buzz
That the future is not what it used
to be, arriving more rapidly and
explosively than it ever did.
That such is hegemony of
algorithmic efficiency now that
rewards must flow to the best 21st
century guerrilla marketing.
That as consumer experiences
morph so their need for new forms
of reassurance, new directions in
brand narrative, must intensify.

More information?
Please contact Karen Canty, Head of News
Email: karenc@futurefoundation.net
Direct number: +44 (0) 20 3008 6107

Future Foundation May 2013 conference highlights

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Future Foundation May 2013 conference highlights