African agricultural development has fluctuated between periods of optimism and pessimism over the past century. Recent decades saw stagnation but since the 1990s growth has improved. Statistics show rising production values, yields, and incomes across much of Africa. Studies find smallholder farmers gradually intensifying crops for markets through own initiative more than public programs. Consensus exists that rural investment in infrastructure, education, and technology can help but big challenges remain in improving factor markets. Initiatives experimenting with subsidies, contracts, and rural finance show potential to reduce risks and transaction costs, leveraging private capital, but more learning is needed from diverse country experiences. While agricultural progress provides cautious optimism, Africa's greater long term challenge may be developing manufacturing and urban
11. 'Only to feed her growing population at
the present level of per capita food
consumption, Africa would thus need to
increase her food production at a rate of,
say, 3.2 per cent per year for several
decades in succession. This is of course an
impossible challenge for her to meet.'
• (Platteau 1990: 290-1)
Hostage to fortune
12. Explaining failure of 70s & 80s
• Land tenure
• Institutions: finance, risk
Geography (2):
exceptionalism
• Dependency
• Squeeze on peasants
• [Cash crops vs food crops]
External
conditions,
internal
structures
15. 1990s
Agriculture lost to sight!
Ideas & lessons → ag lost to sight
• Poverty traps?
• Owing to:
• HighT costs?
• Government failure?
• Real costs?
(Factor)
Market
failings
28. Drivers of change often
private & internal
Often initiative from SF & traders
Public —Gov’t & NGO — can help, but not
always necessary
Stimulus often from domestic markets, not exports
Domestic marketing demands less stringent
29. Cautious
Commercialisation
• Small areas switched to crops for
market
• SF rarely sacrifice food crops
• SF intensify
• fertiliser, (sometimes)
improved seed & agro-
chemicals
• hired labour
• Biggest Step? Irrigation
Gradual,
marginal
changes
30. Active Labour, Land
markets …
•2010: 82 days
•2012: 138 days
2010 2012
Lume: > 90%
households
hired labour:
days annual
household:
% households
renting in land
13% 45%
200 340US$ per hectare
31. But stickyCapital Mkts
• NOT: credit from Banks,
advances from input dealers,
traders or processors
Working K
from SF
savings
• BUT may
• slow process
• limit degree
• restrict which households
participate
Lack of
credit not
a barrier
36. Consensus
• Bullet slide 22RputrVaelrPduabnlaicGoods
• Roads, power, irrigation, etc.
• Education, Health,Water
• Research & Extension
36
37. Big Challenge
Failings in rural markets: solutions?
State intervention?
e.g. Fert Sub
Institutional
Innovation e.g.
Contracts,Co-ops,
etc.
37
38. Public direction: Malawi’s fert.subs
-
0.50
1.5
1.00
1.0
1.50
2.00
2.50
3.00
3.5
0.0
0.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
2001/2002
2002/2003
2003/2004
2004/2005
2005/2006
2006/2007
2007/2008
2008/2009
2009/2010
2011/2012
2012/2013
Yield,tonne/ha
Production,Mtonnes
Marketing Years, May to April
Production
Yield t/ha
39. (Private) Subs
• OneAcre Fund
130k SF
Kenya, Rwanda
Seed, Fert, Insurance,
Mktg
Lean admin
US$50 per SF?
40. Institutional innovation …
… levering in private capital
• ContractingLowerT-costs
• Underwriting rural
banking
Reduce risk
• Patient capital, challenge
funds
Initial learning,
high K costs
41. Conclusions (1)
Reality & perceptions on
the move … sense of
proportion:
Asia’s great lesson for Africa
not always appreciated
42. Conclusions (2)
• Africa diverse: much to
learn from
• Initiatives …͙not͙
documented, still less
evaluated
• Need library of working
models
Learning!
43. Conclusions (3)
• Progress being made
• Elephant traps avoided?
• Demand surging
• Factor market initiatives
• SF enterprise
Reasons
for
cautious
optimism
Africa’s greater challenge?
manufacturing & the urban
economy
