Live case presentation in course Media Management att SSE

1. Future Virtual Worlds STEEP Analysis and Scenario Planning Henrik Engervall (20848@student.hhs.se) Erik Ingemansson (egjin@kth.se) Karl Nielsen (40201@student.hhs.se) Teresia Schullström (tsch@kth.se)

2. Executive Summary This is a presentation of an external analysis of virtual worlds with the STEEP method and, based on the results of the analysis, four scenario plans with a total of 16 different scenarios for virtual worlds.In the STEEP Analysis major driving forces and trends that are affecting the Virtual world industry are listed. From the STEEP the most critical uncertainties are each transformed into bipolar axis and put in different combinations where future scenarios are explored and evaluated. The evaluation of the scenario plans shows three scenarios that, from our perspective, both more attractive and more likely to occur than the others. Forecast –How we think the future will be Vision – How we want the future to be Scenario – How the future could be ”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Presentation by Robin Teigland What is the future for Virtual Worlds in 3-5 years?

3. External factors Sociocultural Technological Economical Environmental Political

4. What are the trends and driving forces? Sociocultural Technological Economical Environmental Political User interest New areas of use Gravity of reality +Facebook Globalization

5. What are the trends and driving forces? Sociocultural Technological Economical Environmental Political Mobile devices Mixed reality User generated content The Cloud

6. What are the trends and driving forces? Sociocultural Technological Economical Environmental Political Economical cycle/general trend Interest rates Fundings Globalization costs

7. What are the trends and driving forces? Sociocultural Technological Economical Environmental Political Green tech – user side Green tech – server side Global trends Globalization Prototyping

8. What are the trends and driving forces? Sociocultural Technological Economical Environmental Political Laws Economic regulations Control

10. More control => less user innovation

13. Vandalism

14. Risk of inflation/bubble

16. Less in-world spending

17. More gaming

18. More user innovationUncontrolled VWs

20. Mixed reality (Augmented reality)

21. New areas of use

22. Education

23. Visualization (virtual reality)

25. Real life issue solving

28. Second Life

29. Niched VWs (Stardoll, Club Penguin)

30. Immersive experiences (Avatar movie)Casual/social purpose of VWs

32. Recruitment

33. Visualization (virtual reality)

35. More people in education

36. Virtual Entrepreneurship

39. MMOGs rule!

40. DatingCasual/social purpose of VWs

42. Virtual mix

43. Complex mobile devices

44. Shopping games

46. Stationary devices

47. Augmented Virtuality

49. Social use

50. Social communities

52. Conclusion

53. Thank you for listening! /clap /whistle

54. Sources Interviews Jeff Lowe Chief Product Officer, Reaction Grid EilifTrondsen Program and Research Director, Strategic Business Insights Internet http://www.articleclick.com/Article/Top-5-Server-Farms-in-Terms-of-Size/1588825 http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/apr/30/cloud-computing-carbon-emissions http://www.greenpeace.org/international/en/publications/reports/make-it-green-cloud-computing/ http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2010/01/28/tech/cnettechnews/main6151438.shtml http://www.adobe.com/resources/elearning/pdfs/serious_games_wp.pdf http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/12/fashion/12dating.html http://www.spelbranschen.se/index.php?option=com.content&view=article&id=808:dataspelsfoersaeljningen-trotsar-konjunkturenoch-oevertraeffar-prognosen&catid=1:senaste&Itemid=12 http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/07/valuegamer_final1.pdf Reports “Virtual worlds — past, present, and future: New directions in social computing” - Paul R. Messinger et. al. “The Condition of Education 2010” - National Center for Education Statistics Presentations ”Fad Or Future Second Life And Virtual Worlds“ – Robin Teigland