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3rd Quarter, 2010
Global Consumer
Confidence, Concerns
and Spending
A Global Nielsen
Consumer Report
October 2010
Hope for a full global economic recovery in 2010
diminishes as cash-strapped consumers are on the rise

  •	 Consumer confidence declined in 19 of 53 global markets
  •	 One in four North Americans and one in five Europeans have no discretionary income.
  •	 Rising food prices top concerns for one in four Asians
  •	 Increasing utility prices are biggest concern for Europeans
  •	 Recovery is back on track in North Western Europe, while the recessionary mindset lives on in
     Southern Europe
  •	 Nine of the top 10 most confident nations hail from Asia Pacific



After an upbeat start to the year with two consecutive quarters                           While positive sentiment drove confidence levels up in the
of increases in optimism, global consumer confidence fell three                           first half of this year, consumer confidence declined in 19 of 53
points in September to an Index of 90 as consumers’ hopes for                             global markets in the third quarter. There simply hasn’t been
a full economic recovery this year fades in most parts of the                             enough consistent and positive news to sustain the positive
world, according to the latest edition of the Nielsen Global                              outlook and momentum that consumers showed at the start
Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer Confidence Index levels                               of this year. The reversal of global consumer confidence in the
above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism                            third quarter highlights the fragility and uncertainty of the
and pessimism. The 90 Index mark reflects the reality that                                current global economy, and above all, the divergence in pace
consumers around the world remain largely pessimistic about                               of recovery among international markets and regions.
job prospects, personal finances and their ability to buy the
things they want and need over the next year.




  3rd Quarter 2010 Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index
   160
           9 23 9 0 36 7 17 6 -3 -5 7 10 16 -1 7 -9 15 7 -1 11 27 5 10 9 13 5 0 17 -21 10 1 -3 4 4 -3 -9 8 0                    6 4 2      0 -13 -14 9 13 6 n/a -15 -10 -4 3 9
           ▲ ▲ ▲    ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲                  ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲                            ▲ ▲ ▲         ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼

   140
           129                                                                                                                             Changes Q3’10 vs Q3’09
             117 115      113
   120          115 115
                       114       104 103 102
                             106
                                   103 103 101 101
                                              101 100 99 99 98 98
                                                                    96 94
   100                                                                      93 92
                                                                                    90 89 88 8887 87
                                                                                                                                                 Global Average: 90
                                                                                                       81 81
                                                                                                               77 77 76 76 75
    80                                                                                                                          75 70
                                                                                                                                      68
                                                                                                                                           67 65 64
           UNITED ARAB EMIRATES




                                                                                                                                                      63
                                                                                                                                                           62 59 58
    60                                                                                                                                                              57
                                                                                                                                                                         55 54
           UNITED KINGDOM




                                                                                                                                                                               52
           CZECH REPUBLIC
           UNITED STATES
           NEW ZEALAND




           SOUTH AFRICA




           SOUTH KOREA
           NETHERLANDS




                                                                                                                                                                                    44
           SWITZERLAND
           SAUDI ARABIA




           HONG KONG




    40
           PHILIPPINES
           SINGAPORE




           ARGENTINA
           INDONESIA




           COLOMBIA




           PORTUGAL
           AUSTRALIA




           LITHUANIA
           DENMARK


           MALAYSIA




           GERMANY




           HUNGARY
           THAILAND




           PAKISTAN




           ROMANIA
           NORWAY




           VIETNAM
           SWEDEN

           CANADA




           BELGIUM




           FINLAND
           UKRAINE




           ESTONIA
           POLAND




           IRELAND
           AUSTRIA




           TAIWAN




           MEXICO




           FRANCE




           GREECE
           TURKEY




           CROTIA
           RUSSIA




           LATVIA
           BRAZIL




           ISRAEL
           EGYPT




           J APAN
           CHINA




           SPAIN
           INDIA




           ITALY




    20


       0




  Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010
For many consumers, spending on non-essential goods has                                                more than 26,000 Internet users in 53 countries. In the latest
become more restrained this year compared to the height                                                round of the survey conducted between September 3 and
of the global recession two years ago. Discretionary income                                            September 21, 2010, consumer confidence in most markets
reached an all time low for many consumers in the third                                                showed continued spending restraint. More than half (56%) of
quarter, with 27 percent of Americans, 19 percent of Europeans,                                        global consumers believe they are currently in recession and
17 percent of Middle Easterners/Africans and 16 percent of Latin                                       48 percent do not believe they will be out of a recession in the
Americans left with no spare cash after paying essential                                               next 12 months. While slipping back into a full blown global
living expenses.                                                                                       recession is unlikely, in the last few months consumers accepted
                                                                                                       that there are no quick fixes to the persistent economic issues
Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index tracks consumer                                             of unemployment and spiraling budget deficits that continue to
confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among                                               dampen and constrain economic revival.



    How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses
    Global Average
                                                                                             47
                                                                                               49
                             Putting into savings                                                49
                                                                                              49
                                                                                 31
                                      New clothes                                     34
                                                                                    34
                                                                                      34
                                                                                   33
                            Holidays / vacations                                      37
                                                                                   33 37
                                                                              27 32
                      Out of home entertainment                                      33
                                                                                  32
                                                                                   30
         Paying off debts / credit cards / loans                                30
                                                                                 29
                                                                            24
                                                                               29
                                                                                                                     %
                       New technology products                                28
                                                                             2626
                                                                             26
             Home improvements / decorating                                    26
                                                                             26
                                                                         21                                         Q3   2009
                                                                          20 23
    Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds                                                                     Q1   2010
                                                                            24
                                                                         21                                         Q2   2010
                                                                   13
                             I have no spare cash                12 11                                              Q3   2010
                                                                  14
                                                               10
                                 Retirement fund                  11
                                                                10
                                                                11
                                                         2
                          Don’t know/undecided             2
                                                         2
                                                           3

    Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




    Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months?
                                                                                  Yes             No        Don’t Know


            31
                                 32                 33
                                                                                             29                30
                                                                         30




    %
            42                   45                 43                   51                                    48
                                                                                             54




            27                   23                 23                                                         21
                                                                                             17
                                                                         19

        Asia Pacific         Middle East,      Latin America      North America             Europe         Global Average
                           Africa, Pakistan


    Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




3
Rising Concerns                                                                          The economy remains the number one concern for more than
                                                                                         one in four North American’s (27%) and worries about health
In addition to economic issues, many consumers in Asia and
                                                                                         jumped five percentage points as the number one concern
Europe are grappling with additional concerns such as rising
                                                                                         among 10 percent of respondents in this region. Among Latin
food and utility prices, which are squeezing already constrained
                                                                                         American consumers, consumers ranked work/life balance, job
family budgets. In Europe, increasing utility bills replaced the
                                                                                         security, debt, crime and children’s education ahead of the
economy as the number one concern over the next six months
                                                                                         economy as the number one concern.
and in Asia Pacific, one in five consumers are most concerned
about rising food prices—an increase of 13 points compared to
the second quarter.




  In Europe, increasing utility bills replace the economy as the biggest concern in the next 6 months


        Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc)           11        12                   +2 Biggest Concern Change vs. Q2
                                                       The economy          10       10                    -6

                                                                 Health     9        10
                                                         Job security       9        8
                                            Increasing food prices          7    10
                          Childrens' education and/or welfare               8    7
                                                                   Debt     9        6
                                                  Work/life balance         7    6
                                                   Political stability     4 4
                                              Increasing fuel prices       3 4
                                                                  Crime    3 4                             %
                                Parents' welfare and happiness             34
                                                               Terrorism   33
                                                    Global warming 2 2
                                                         Immigration       22
                                                                    War 1 1
                       Tolerance towards different religions 1 1
                                                                                                   Biggest concern
                     Lack of understanding of other cultures 1 1                                   Second biggest concern
                  Tolerance towards other countries’ values                11
                                                      Other concern        33
                                                        No concerns        4 1

  Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




                                                                                               “Rising food and utility prices are
                                                                                               squeezing already constrained
                                                                                               family budgets.”




                                                                                                                                                       4
In Asia Pacific, increasing food prices jumped 13 points, replacing the economy as the biggest concern in
    the next 6 months
                                                                                                       +13 Biggest Concern Change vs. Q2
                                    Increasing food prices                   21            12
                                        Work/life balance               13            12
                                             The economy            10               12                -9
                                                     Health         8            9
                                               Job security         9             8
    Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc)       6        9
                         Parents' welfare and happiness         4        8
                   Childrens' education and/or welfare          5        6
                                          Global warming        5 5
                                     Increasing fuel prices     3 4
                                                       Debt     33                                     %
                                          Political stability 2 3
                                                  Terrorism 1 2
                                                      Crime 1 2
                                                        War 1 1
                   Tolerance towards different religions 1 1
             Tolerance towards other countries’ values          1
                                                                                                Biggest concern
                Lack of understanding of other cultures         1                               Second biggest concern
                                               Immigration
                                            Other concern 22
                                              No concerns       41


     Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




    In North America, the economy remains the biggest concern over the next 6 months


                                             The economy                     27                 15
                                                       Debt         13                9
                                               Job security     9             8
    Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc)   8             9
                                                     Health     10            7
                                    Increasing food prices 4            10
                                        Work/life balance       5       6
                                                 Terrorism 3 5
                                     Increasing fuel prices 2 5
                   Childrens' education and/or welfare 3 3
                                               Immigration 2 3                                        %
                         Parents' welfare and happiness 2 3
                                        Global warming 1 3
                                          Political stability 22
                                                      Crime 12
                                                   War 2
                  Tolerance towards different religions 11                                      Biggest concern
                Lack of understanding of other cultures 11                                      Second biggest concern
             Tolerance towards other countries’ values 1
                                            Other concern 5 3
                                              No concerns 4 2

     Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




5
North American Consumers Adjust Expectations                             latest 52-week period. The U.S. economy is driving consumers
                                                                         to make trade-offs and buy less—and food matters most.
Stagnant unemployment figures in the United States and
                                                                         Non-edible departments are leading the decline in unit sales,
increasing jobless numbers had a major effect on confidence
                                                                         while unit sales for all edible departments are growing over the
levels in the third quarter. Sixty-four percent of North
                                                                         latest year. Not all non-edible categories are declining and
Americans describe their job prospects in the next 12 months as
                                                                         edible private brands no longer dominate the list of categories
not so good or bad.
                                                                         driving the fastest growth in private brand unit sales. The U.S.
In the U.S., the Consumer Confidence Index of 81 in the third            has seen great innovation from manufacturers and retailers
quarter is below the average level of 83 achieved over the past          taking advantage of a weak away-from-home consumption
two and a half years – and considerably less than the 104 Index          sector and it remains a long-term opportunity for the industry.
average achieved between 2005 and 2007. The latest consumer              Consumers continue to seek out value, but innovation is still a
confidence results confirm that U.S. consumers are clearly               huge driver for brands and retailers.
restrained by a lack of confidence. With a stubbornly weak
                                                                         In Canada, despite the increase in consumer confidence over
labor market, consumers are concerned about the jobless
                                                                         the past year, Canadians remain cautious when it comes to
recovery and managing their personal finances. As a result,
                                                                         opening their wallets. Consumers are still focused on value,
consumers are closely planning spending and they continue to
                                                                         continuing to shop at discount retailers and buying on
reduce shopping trips while placing more emphasis on value.
                                                                         promotion at record levels. After a year of rising prices, we are
Fewer shopping trips are making every retail interaction critical
                                                                         now seeing a leveling of consumer-packaged goods (CPG)
for retailers.
                                                                         inflation as retailers continue to use price and promotions to
U.S. consumers are still very much in a holding pattern. The             win over the consumer. As a result, expect lower levels of retail
latest annual dollar sales trend across key retail departments           sales for 2010, forecasting a potential 0.5-1.0% decline in CPG
shows no improvement in the most recent quarter within the               dollar sales, with unit sales expecting to hold.



  Perceptions of Good/Bad time for people to buy the things they want and need over the NEXT 12 Months



                                                               Excellent         Good          Not so good          Bad



                             13

                                                                    21                                         21




                             40


                                                                    41                                         41




                             42

                                                                    26                                         28


                              2                                      4                                          4

                          Canada                               United States                        North America Average

  Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




                                                                                                                                         6
Divergent Recovery in Europe                                                  like the rest of the economy remained flat in the third quarter.
                                                                              There’s hardly any growth coming from any sector of the
Europe demonstrated the most divergent recovery patterns in
                                                                              economy and Italians have resigned themselves to the reality
the last quarter. Economic recovery was back on track in North
                                                                              that recovery, when it comes, will be a very slow ride.
Western Europe, while in Southern Europe, the recessionary
mindset lives on. Recession-battered markets of Greece, Italy,                In Spain, the high unemployment rate of 20% is leading to a
Spain and Portugal have continued to decline. Hopes of                        significant slow down for both consumer confidence and
recovery are becoming increasingly dim as consumers brace                     consumption. Fast-moving consumer goods prices have not yet
themselves for a new era of austerity measures.                               reached the level achieved in 2008, which is contributing to the
                                                                              slow consumption recovery. In the search for the best shopping
Italy plummeted to an all time low Index of 64 in the third
                                                                              options and value, consumers have increased the number of
quarter. Weak consumer spending, the highest unemployment
                                                                              visits to food stores this year and private label purchasing, while
figures since 2003, a slowdown in exports, political uncertainty
                                                                              slower than previous years, continues to grow reaching up to a
and continued tight credit conditions have plunged consumer
                                                                              33 percent share.
confidence to a new low. Fast-moving consumer goods sales,



    Recessionary mindset lives on in Southern Europe
    Consumer Confidence Index



                                                                                                         Q3 2009
                                    79                     78
                          74                                       75                                    Q1 2010
                                                                              72                         Q3 2010
                                           65                            64
                                                                                    57 57
                                                                                                      53 51

                                                                                                                  44




                                Spain                            Italy             Greece                 Portugal


    Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




7
North Western Europe Making Upward Climb                                           Additionally, the government’s announced 2011 financial plan
                                                                                   includes an increase in taxes and a drop in fiscal advantages.
In contrast, countries in North Western Europe are delivering                      This perspective of tighter fiscal policy should reinforce the
the strongest and steadiest return to economic growth in the                       lack of confidence amongst French households. Purchases,
region. Consumer confidence in Germany hit its highest level                       however, are on a positive trend—though moderately—with
since Q3 2005, Austria’s consumer confidence rebounded to                          a loss of buyers for the discount channel on one hand and the
the same level in Q3 2006 and Belgium continued its upward                         dynamism of increased promotions on premium brands on the
climb started in Q3 2009. While France and Estonia’s Index                         other one. Overall, private label remains an attractive option
levels are still well below average, both have reported a slow                     for consumers and strongly pushed by retailers. If uncertainty
upward climb since the end of 2009.                                                continues in the next few months, expect to see a greater push
                                                                                   for private label and a renewal for the discount channel.
In France, the social climate was quite tense in September
with two national strikes linked with the pension system.


  North Western Europe is slowly climbing upward
  Consumer Confidence Index

                  Q3 2009                  Q1 2010                  Q2 2010          Q3 2010


                                                                              92            94
                                                               87      85            87
                                                                         84        84 85
                                                    77 81            79
               68                                     74
             67 63 67 66     70
                        62
                          61




                 France            Estonia           Germany          Belgium         Austria


  Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010



Asia Pacific is Resilient and Optimistic                                           the economy is heading in a healthy direction. With the newly
                                                                                   launched housing policies to cool down the real estate market
Regionally, Asia Pacific was the world’s most confident region                     and the discussion of the new policies to accelerate income
reporting an Index of 98, followed closely by Middle East/                         and urbanization, consumers are in the “watch” mood for big
Africa at 97 points. Nine of the top 10 most confident nations                     item purchases. While the government is taking effective steps
hailed from Asia Pacific countries: India, Thailand, Australia,                    to ensure domestic demand weighs more heavily in the GDP
Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, China, Malaysia and Hong                        balance, the rise of China’s Middle Class and the potential of
Kong.                                                                              the lower tier cities in China deserve more attention for those
                                                                                   who want to win in China.
The latest quarter’s Chinese consumer confidence experienced
a “soft landing”, which is expected as the China government                        Thailand posted the biggest quarterly confidence jump to an
has largely engineered a controlled deceleration of growth                         Index of 117 in the third quarter. Thailand’s significant rebound
and prices without having the bottom fall out to make sure                         is testament to the country’s resilience to return to normalcy




                                                                                                                                                   8
after the political unrest that mired the nation in the second                                political unrest. Economic and business confidence increased
quarter. A separate Nielsen online study conducted in June                                    as soon as the immediate political situation was brought under
indicated that 70 percent of Thais expected life to return to                                 control. Strengthening of the Thai Baht and significant gains in
normal immediately or within one month following the May                                      the Thailand Stock Exchange has also helped to
                                                                                                                                                 129
                                                                                              boost optimism.
                                                                                                                                                          117    11
    Nine of the top 10 most optimistic countries come from Asia Pacific

           129                                                                                                   Q3 2010
                      117
                                115        115        115        114      113                                                              %
                                                                                     106      104           103          103


    %

                                                                           e


                                                                                     k


                                                                                                a

                                                                                                          si a


                                                                                                                         ng
                      nd


                                 lia


                                          ia


                                                       ia


                                                                es
            ia




                                                                         or




                                                                                             in
                                                                                   ar
                                                     ab
                                         es
            d




                                                              in




                                                                                                                      Ko
                              ra
                     a




                                                                                                        ay
                                                                                           Ch
                                                                       ap


                                                                                 nm
         In


                  ail




                                                            pp
                                       on


                                                   Ar
                           st




                                                                                                    al
                                                                     ng




                                                                                                                     g
                 Th


                         Au




                                                                               De
                                                          ili
                                      d




                                                                                                   M


                                                                                                                  on
                                                 i
                                              ud
                                   In




                                                                   Si
                                                        Ph




                                                                                                                 H
                                           Sa




    Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




    Once essential living expenses are paid, saving is a high priority for consumers in Asia Pacific

                                                                                                                                 60
                           Putting into savings                                                                                   59 62
                                                                                                                                      63
                                                                                                              41
                           Holidays / vacations
                                                                                                                           47
                                                                                                                      45
                                                                                                                 41
                                                                                                    36
                                                                                                                 41
                                  New clothes
                                                                                                            40
                                                                                                                 40
                                                                                           29            38
                  Out of home entertainment
                                                                                                         38
                                                                                                             39
                                                                                                   36
    Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds                                                             40
                                                                                                               41
                                                                                                       37
                                                                                             31
                    New technology products                                                                 37
                                                                                                  33
                                                                                                       34
                                                                                       27
         Paying off debts / credit cards / loans                                     26 27
                                                                                        27
            Home improvements / decorating
                                                                                     25
                                                                                        27                                 %
                                                                                     25
                                                                                21
                                                                    11
                              Retirement fund                    10 10
                                                                         14                                            Q3 2009
                                                             5
                           I have no spare cash                5                                                       Q1 2010
                                                            5
                                                               5                                                       Q2 2010
                                                        2
                       Don’t know/undecided             2                                                              Q3 2010
                                                      1 2

    Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




9
Middle East/Africa/Pakistan is Stable and Consistent                          Saudi consumers, on the other hand, are characterized by solid
                                                                              optimism, which sets them apart from their counterparts in
In the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan, consumer confidence                  the rest of the world. Saudi consumers’ bullish sentiments
is stable, consistently reporting steady Index levels at or above             are resulting in more spending and less saving. There is 8
the global average. Consumers in this region are cautiously                   percent growth in non-food categories and 4 percent growth
optimistic and as such show little variations in spending                     in food categories compared to last year. Given its young
intentions and concerns compared to the previous quarter.                     population (66% under 29 years) and the high discretionary
                                                                              income of families, Saudi Arabian consumers are considered
In the Untied Arab Emirates, consumer spending on fast-
                                                                              early adopters and they are receptive to new products, brands
moving consumer goods grew a healthy 9 percent versus year
                                                                              and stores. However, when it comes to households’ grocery
ago—a good indicator of consumers’ stabilizing confidence.
                                                                              shopping, Saudis are informed and selective—their sensitivity
There has been a light increase in recreation and cultural
                                                                              and receptiveness to promotions is amongst the highest in
activity during this quarter, driven in part by Ramadan,
suggesting a timid rise in out-of-home entertainment                          countries where Nielsen conducts its Global Shopper
spending. On the whole, consumers are still very cautious with                Trends Study.
discretionary spending and have a greater propensity to save
compared to pre-crisis years.


  Consumer confidence levels in the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan are stable and consistent


                                                                                             Q3 2010
                      115
                                                                                             Q1 2010
               108
                                  103 101
                                                              98
                                                       95          92                         92 90
                                                                        89            87
                                                                                 84




                 Saudi           United Arab             Egypt     Pakistan       South        Global
                 Arabia           Emirates                                        Africa       Average

 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




                                                                                                                                          10
Latin America is Returning to Normal                                                     In Mexico, recovery continues on the path to growth, with
                                                                                         volume and value trends moving forward, 3.1 percent and 5.9
Consumer confidence in Latin America continues to report                                 percent, respectively during the rolling year ended in July 2010
steady levels, which are normalizing after hitting a low point at                        compared to the previous year. On the other hand, variable
the beginning of 2009.                                                                   price continues its downward trend, which is being absorbed
                                                                                         by manufacturers and retailers in their efforts to boost
Brazilian consumers continued to advance fast-moving
                                                                                         consumption. This aggressive price dynamic is triggering growth
consumer goods market growth, rising to 6 percent during
                                                                                         in the basket volume.
the first half of 2010. Positive economic conditions together
with new product introductions that focused on value and
improved price fueled the sustained growth, which is expected
to continue throughout the rest of the year.



     When economic conditions do improve, which of these do you expect you will continue to do?
     Latin America Average

                          Try to save on gas and electricity                                                44
                          Cut down on telephone expenses                                           34
                         Switch to cheaper grocery brands                                     27
                            Cut down on take-away meals                                  23
                                 Spend less on new clothes                              21
     Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, credit                        18
                                                 cards etc
                                     Use my car less often                    14
                  Cut down on out-of-home entertainment                       13                        %
            Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile etc                11
             Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol                 9
                            Other actions not listed above                9
                                     Cut down on smoking              8
                        Cut down on holidays/short breaks             8
          Delay the replacement of major household items              7
                      Cut down on at-home entertainment           4
                                    Cut out annual holiday        4

     Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010




                                                                                                        “Consumer confidence in
                                                                                                        Latin America continues to
                                                                                                        report steady levels.”




11
Country Abbreviations
Argentina            AR                    Italy                  IT                                  Thailand                            TH
Australia            AU                    Japan                  JP                                  Turkey                              TR
Austria              AT                    Latvia                 LV                                  United Arab Emirates                AE
Belgium              BE                    Lithuania              LT                                  United Kingdom                      GB
Brazil               BR                    Malaysia               MY                                  Ukraine                             UA
Canada               CA                    Mexico                 MX                                  United States                       US
China                CN                    Netherlands            NL                                  Vietnam                             VN
Colombia             CO                    New Zealand            NZ
Croatia              HR                    Norway                 NO
Czech Republic       CZ                    Pakistan               PK
Denmark              DK                    Philippines            PH
                                                                                                      Region Abbreviations
Egypt                EG                    Poland                 PL
Estonia              EE                    Portugal               PT                                  AP             Asia Pacific
Finland              FI                    Romania                RO                                  EU             Europe
France               FR                    Russia                 RU                                  LA             Latin America
Germany              DE                    Saudi Arabia           SA                                  MEAP           Middle East, Africa, Pakistan
Greece               GR                    Singapore              SG                                  NA             North America
Hong Kong            HK                    South Africa           ZA
Hungary              HU                    South Korea            KO
India                IN                    Spain                  ES
Indonesia            ID                    Sweden                 SE
Ireland              IE                    Switzerland            CH
Israel               IL                    Taiwan                 TW




About the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey
The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted between September 3 and September 21, 2010 and polled over
26,000 consumers in 53 countries throughout Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North America about their
confidence levels and economic outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidence
in the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each
country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of
error of ±0.6%.

About The Nielsen Company
The Nielsen Company is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and
consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and
related assets. The privately held company has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA.
For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com.




                                                                                         Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Produced in the U.S.A.
                                                               Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. 10/2205




                                                                                                                                                                      12
Rising food prices top Asian consumer concern as global confidence falls

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Rising food prices top Asian consumer concern as global confidence falls

  • 1. 3rd Quarter, 2010 Global Consumer Confidence, Concerns and Spending A Global Nielsen Consumer Report October 2010
  • 2. Hope for a full global economic recovery in 2010 diminishes as cash-strapped consumers are on the rise • Consumer confidence declined in 19 of 53 global markets • One in four North Americans and one in five Europeans have no discretionary income. • Rising food prices top concerns for one in four Asians • Increasing utility prices are biggest concern for Europeans • Recovery is back on track in North Western Europe, while the recessionary mindset lives on in Southern Europe • Nine of the top 10 most confident nations hail from Asia Pacific After an upbeat start to the year with two consecutive quarters While positive sentiment drove confidence levels up in the of increases in optimism, global consumer confidence fell three first half of this year, consumer confidence declined in 19 of 53 points in September to an Index of 90 as consumers’ hopes for global markets in the third quarter. There simply hasn’t been a full economic recovery this year fades in most parts of the enough consistent and positive news to sustain the positive world, according to the latest edition of the Nielsen Global outlook and momentum that consumers showed at the start Consumer Confidence Index. Consumer Confidence Index levels of this year. The reversal of global consumer confidence in the above and below a baseline of 100 indicate degrees of optimism third quarter highlights the fragility and uncertainty of the and pessimism. The 90 Index mark reflects the reality that current global economy, and above all, the divergence in pace consumers around the world remain largely pessimistic about of recovery among international markets and regions. job prospects, personal finances and their ability to buy the things they want and need over the next year. 3rd Quarter 2010 Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Index 160 9 23 9 0 36 7 17 6 -3 -5 7 10 16 -1 7 -9 15 7 -1 11 27 5 10 9 13 5 0 17 -21 10 1 -3 4 4 -3 -9 8 0 6 4 2 0 -13 -14 9 13 6 n/a -15 -10 -4 3 9 ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▲ ▼ ▼ ▼ ▲ ▼ 140 129 Changes Q3’10 vs Q3’09 117 115 113 120 115 115 114 104 103 102 106 103 103 101 101 101 100 99 99 98 98 96 94 100 93 92 90 89 88 8887 87 Global Average: 90 81 81 77 77 76 76 75 80 75 70 68 67 65 64 UNITED ARAB EMIRATES 63 62 59 58 60 57 55 54 UNITED KINGDOM 52 CZECH REPUBLIC UNITED STATES NEW ZEALAND SOUTH AFRICA SOUTH KOREA NETHERLANDS 44 SWITZERLAND SAUDI ARABIA HONG KONG 40 PHILIPPINES SINGAPORE ARGENTINA INDONESIA COLOMBIA PORTUGAL AUSTRALIA LITHUANIA DENMARK MALAYSIA GERMANY HUNGARY THAILAND PAKISTAN ROMANIA NORWAY VIETNAM SWEDEN CANADA BELGIUM FINLAND UKRAINE ESTONIA POLAND IRELAND AUSTRIA TAIWAN MEXICO FRANCE GREECE TURKEY CROTIA RUSSIA LATVIA BRAZIL ISRAEL EGYPT J APAN CHINA SPAIN INDIA ITALY 20 0 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010
  • 3. For many consumers, spending on non-essential goods has more than 26,000 Internet users in 53 countries. In the latest become more restrained this year compared to the height round of the survey conducted between September 3 and of the global recession two years ago. Discretionary income September 21, 2010, consumer confidence in most markets reached an all time low for many consumers in the third showed continued spending restraint. More than half (56%) of quarter, with 27 percent of Americans, 19 percent of Europeans, global consumers believe they are currently in recession and 17 percent of Middle Easterners/Africans and 16 percent of Latin 48 percent do not believe they will be out of a recession in the Americans left with no spare cash after paying essential next 12 months. While slipping back into a full blown global living expenses. recession is unlikely, in the last few months consumers accepted that there are no quick fixes to the persistent economic issues Nielsen’s Global Consumer Confidence Index tracks consumer of unemployment and spiraling budget deficits that continue to confidence, major concerns and spending intentions among dampen and constrain economic revival. How to utilize spare cash after covering essential living expenses Global Average 47 49 Putting into savings 49 49 31 New clothes 34 34 34 33 Holidays / vacations 37 33 37 27 32 Out of home entertainment 33 32 30 Paying off debts / credit cards / loans 30 29 24 29 % New technology products 28 2626 26 Home improvements / decorating 26 26 21 Q3 2009 20 23 Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds Q1 2010 24 21 Q2 2010 13 I have no spare cash 12 11 Q3 2010 14 10 Retirement fund 11 10 11 2 Don’t know/undecided 2 2 3 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 Do you think your country will be out of an economic recession in the next 12 months? Yes No Don’t Know 31 32 33 29 30 30 % 42 45 43 51 48 54 27 23 23 21 17 19 Asia Pacific Middle East, Latin America North America Europe Global Average Africa, Pakistan Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 3
  • 4. Rising Concerns The economy remains the number one concern for more than one in four North American’s (27%) and worries about health In addition to economic issues, many consumers in Asia and jumped five percentage points as the number one concern Europe are grappling with additional concerns such as rising among 10 percent of respondents in this region. Among Latin food and utility prices, which are squeezing already constrained American consumers, consumers ranked work/life balance, job family budgets. In Europe, increasing utility bills replaced the security, debt, crime and children’s education ahead of the economy as the number one concern over the next six months economy as the number one concern. and in Asia Pacific, one in five consumers are most concerned about rising food prices—an increase of 13 points compared to the second quarter. In Europe, increasing utility bills replace the economy as the biggest concern in the next 6 months Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) 11 12 +2 Biggest Concern Change vs. Q2 The economy 10 10 -6 Health 9 10 Job security 9 8 Increasing food prices 7 10 Childrens' education and/or welfare 8 7 Debt 9 6 Work/life balance 7 6 Political stability 4 4 Increasing fuel prices 3 4 Crime 3 4 % Parents' welfare and happiness 34 Terrorism 33 Global warming 2 2 Immigration 22 War 1 1 Tolerance towards different religions 1 1 Biggest concern Lack of understanding of other cultures 1 1 Second biggest concern Tolerance towards other countries’ values 11 Other concern 33 No concerns 4 1 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 “Rising food and utility prices are squeezing already constrained family budgets.” 4
  • 5. In Asia Pacific, increasing food prices jumped 13 points, replacing the economy as the biggest concern in the next 6 months +13 Biggest Concern Change vs. Q2 Increasing food prices 21 12 Work/life balance 13 12 The economy 10 12 -9 Health 8 9 Job security 9 8 Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) 6 9 Parents' welfare and happiness 4 8 Childrens' education and/or welfare 5 6 Global warming 5 5 Increasing fuel prices 3 4 Debt 33 % Political stability 2 3 Terrorism 1 2 Crime 1 2 War 1 1 Tolerance towards different religions 1 1 Tolerance towards other countries’ values 1 Biggest concern Lack of understanding of other cultures 1 Second biggest concern Immigration Other concern 22 No concerns 41 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 In North America, the economy remains the biggest concern over the next 6 months The economy 27 15 Debt 13 9 Job security 9 8 Increasing utility bills (electricity, gas, heating, etc) 8 9 Health 10 7 Increasing food prices 4 10 Work/life balance 5 6 Terrorism 3 5 Increasing fuel prices 2 5 Childrens' education and/or welfare 3 3 Immigration 2 3 % Parents' welfare and happiness 2 3 Global warming 1 3 Political stability 22 Crime 12 War 2 Tolerance towards different religions 11 Biggest concern Lack of understanding of other cultures 11 Second biggest concern Tolerance towards other countries’ values 1 Other concern 5 3 No concerns 4 2 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 5
  • 6. North American Consumers Adjust Expectations latest 52-week period. The U.S. economy is driving consumers to make trade-offs and buy less—and food matters most. Stagnant unemployment figures in the United States and Non-edible departments are leading the decline in unit sales, increasing jobless numbers had a major effect on confidence while unit sales for all edible departments are growing over the levels in the third quarter. Sixty-four percent of North latest year. Not all non-edible categories are declining and Americans describe their job prospects in the next 12 months as edible private brands no longer dominate the list of categories not so good or bad. driving the fastest growth in private brand unit sales. The U.S. In the U.S., the Consumer Confidence Index of 81 in the third has seen great innovation from manufacturers and retailers quarter is below the average level of 83 achieved over the past taking advantage of a weak away-from-home consumption two and a half years – and considerably less than the 104 Index sector and it remains a long-term opportunity for the industry. average achieved between 2005 and 2007. The latest consumer Consumers continue to seek out value, but innovation is still a confidence results confirm that U.S. consumers are clearly huge driver for brands and retailers. restrained by a lack of confidence. With a stubbornly weak In Canada, despite the increase in consumer confidence over labor market, consumers are concerned about the jobless the past year, Canadians remain cautious when it comes to recovery and managing their personal finances. As a result, opening their wallets. Consumers are still focused on value, consumers are closely planning spending and they continue to continuing to shop at discount retailers and buying on reduce shopping trips while placing more emphasis on value. promotion at record levels. After a year of rising prices, we are Fewer shopping trips are making every retail interaction critical now seeing a leveling of consumer-packaged goods (CPG) for retailers. inflation as retailers continue to use price and promotions to U.S. consumers are still very much in a holding pattern. The win over the consumer. As a result, expect lower levels of retail latest annual dollar sales trend across key retail departments sales for 2010, forecasting a potential 0.5-1.0% decline in CPG shows no improvement in the most recent quarter within the dollar sales, with unit sales expecting to hold. Perceptions of Good/Bad time for people to buy the things they want and need over the NEXT 12 Months Excellent Good Not so good Bad 13 21 21 40 41 41 42 26 28 2 4 4 Canada United States North America Average Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 6
  • 7. Divergent Recovery in Europe like the rest of the economy remained flat in the third quarter. There’s hardly any growth coming from any sector of the Europe demonstrated the most divergent recovery patterns in economy and Italians have resigned themselves to the reality the last quarter. Economic recovery was back on track in North that recovery, when it comes, will be a very slow ride. Western Europe, while in Southern Europe, the recessionary mindset lives on. Recession-battered markets of Greece, Italy, In Spain, the high unemployment rate of 20% is leading to a Spain and Portugal have continued to decline. Hopes of significant slow down for both consumer confidence and recovery are becoming increasingly dim as consumers brace consumption. Fast-moving consumer goods prices have not yet themselves for a new era of austerity measures. reached the level achieved in 2008, which is contributing to the slow consumption recovery. In the search for the best shopping Italy plummeted to an all time low Index of 64 in the third options and value, consumers have increased the number of quarter. Weak consumer spending, the highest unemployment visits to food stores this year and private label purchasing, while figures since 2003, a slowdown in exports, political uncertainty slower than previous years, continues to grow reaching up to a and continued tight credit conditions have plunged consumer 33 percent share. confidence to a new low. Fast-moving consumer goods sales, Recessionary mindset lives on in Southern Europe Consumer Confidence Index Q3 2009 79 78 74 75 Q1 2010 72 Q3 2010 65 64 57 57 53 51 44 Spain Italy Greece Portugal Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 7
  • 8. North Western Europe Making Upward Climb Additionally, the government’s announced 2011 financial plan includes an increase in taxes and a drop in fiscal advantages. In contrast, countries in North Western Europe are delivering This perspective of tighter fiscal policy should reinforce the the strongest and steadiest return to economic growth in the lack of confidence amongst French households. Purchases, region. Consumer confidence in Germany hit its highest level however, are on a positive trend—though moderately—with since Q3 2005, Austria’s consumer confidence rebounded to a loss of buyers for the discount channel on one hand and the the same level in Q3 2006 and Belgium continued its upward dynamism of increased promotions on premium brands on the climb started in Q3 2009. While France and Estonia’s Index other one. Overall, private label remains an attractive option levels are still well below average, both have reported a slow for consumers and strongly pushed by retailers. If uncertainty upward climb since the end of 2009. continues in the next few months, expect to see a greater push for private label and a renewal for the discount channel. In France, the social climate was quite tense in September with two national strikes linked with the pension system. North Western Europe is slowly climbing upward Consumer Confidence Index Q3 2009 Q1 2010 Q2 2010 Q3 2010 92 94 87 85 87 84 84 85 77 81 79 68 74 67 63 67 66 70 62 61 France Estonia Germany Belgium Austria Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 Asia Pacific is Resilient and Optimistic the economy is heading in a healthy direction. With the newly launched housing policies to cool down the real estate market Regionally, Asia Pacific was the world’s most confident region and the discussion of the new policies to accelerate income reporting an Index of 98, followed closely by Middle East/ and urbanization, consumers are in the “watch” mood for big Africa at 97 points. Nine of the top 10 most confident nations item purchases. While the government is taking effective steps hailed from Asia Pacific countries: India, Thailand, Australia, to ensure domestic demand weighs more heavily in the GDP Indonesia, Philippines, Singapore, China, Malaysia and Hong balance, the rise of China’s Middle Class and the potential of Kong. the lower tier cities in China deserve more attention for those who want to win in China. The latest quarter’s Chinese consumer confidence experienced a “soft landing”, which is expected as the China government Thailand posted the biggest quarterly confidence jump to an has largely engineered a controlled deceleration of growth Index of 117 in the third quarter. Thailand’s significant rebound and prices without having the bottom fall out to make sure is testament to the country’s resilience to return to normalcy 8
  • 9. after the political unrest that mired the nation in the second political unrest. Economic and business confidence increased quarter. A separate Nielsen online study conducted in June as soon as the immediate political situation was brought under indicated that 70 percent of Thais expected life to return to control. Strengthening of the Thai Baht and significant gains in normal immediately or within one month following the May the Thailand Stock Exchange has also helped to 129 boost optimism. 117 11 Nine of the top 10 most optimistic countries come from Asia Pacific 129 Q3 2010 117 115 115 115 114 113 % 106 104 103 103 % e k a si a ng nd lia ia ia es ia or in ar ab es d in Ko ra a ay Ch ap nm In ail pp on Ar st al ng g Th Au De ili d M on i ud In Si Ph H Sa Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 Once essential living expenses are paid, saving is a high priority for consumers in Asia Pacific 60 Putting into savings 59 62 63 41 Holidays / vacations 47 45 41 36 41 New clothes 40 40 29 38 Out of home entertainment 38 39 36 Investing in shares of stock / mutual funds 40 41 37 31 New technology products 37 33 34 27 Paying off debts / credit cards / loans 26 27 27 Home improvements / decorating 25 27 % 25 21 11 Retirement fund 10 10 14 Q3 2009 5 I have no spare cash 5 Q1 2010 5 5 Q2 2010 2 Don’t know/undecided 2 Q3 2010 1 2 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 9
  • 10. Middle East/Africa/Pakistan is Stable and Consistent Saudi consumers, on the other hand, are characterized by solid optimism, which sets them apart from their counterparts in In the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan, consumer confidence the rest of the world. Saudi consumers’ bullish sentiments is stable, consistently reporting steady Index levels at or above are resulting in more spending and less saving. There is 8 the global average. Consumers in this region are cautiously percent growth in non-food categories and 4 percent growth optimistic and as such show little variations in spending in food categories compared to last year. Given its young intentions and concerns compared to the previous quarter. population (66% under 29 years) and the high discretionary income of families, Saudi Arabian consumers are considered In the Untied Arab Emirates, consumer spending on fast- early adopters and they are receptive to new products, brands moving consumer goods grew a healthy 9 percent versus year and stores. However, when it comes to households’ grocery ago—a good indicator of consumers’ stabilizing confidence. shopping, Saudis are informed and selective—their sensitivity There has been a light increase in recreation and cultural and receptiveness to promotions is amongst the highest in activity during this quarter, driven in part by Ramadan, suggesting a timid rise in out-of-home entertainment countries where Nielsen conducts its Global Shopper spending. On the whole, consumers are still very cautious with Trends Study. discretionary spending and have a greater propensity to save compared to pre-crisis years. Consumer confidence levels in the Middle East, Africa and Pakistan are stable and consistent Q3 2010 115 Q1 2010 108 103 101 98 95 92 92 90 89 87 84 Saudi United Arab Egypt Pakistan South Global Arabia Emirates Africa Average Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 10
  • 11. Latin America is Returning to Normal In Mexico, recovery continues on the path to growth, with volume and value trends moving forward, 3.1 percent and 5.9 Consumer confidence in Latin America continues to report percent, respectively during the rolling year ended in July 2010 steady levels, which are normalizing after hitting a low point at compared to the previous year. On the other hand, variable the beginning of 2009. price continues its downward trend, which is being absorbed by manufacturers and retailers in their efforts to boost Brazilian consumers continued to advance fast-moving consumption. This aggressive price dynamic is triggering growth consumer goods market growth, rising to 6 percent during in the basket volume. the first half of 2010. Positive economic conditions together with new product introductions that focused on value and improved price fueled the sustained growth, which is expected to continue throughout the rest of the year. When economic conditions do improve, which of these do you expect you will continue to do? Latin America Average Try to save on gas and electricity 44 Cut down on telephone expenses 34 Switch to cheaper grocery brands 27 Cut down on take-away meals 23 Spend less on new clothes 21 Look for better deals on home loans, insurance, credit 18 cards etc Use my car less often 14 Cut down on out-of-home entertainment 13 % Delay upgrading technology, eg. PC, Mobile etc 11 Cut down on or buy cheaper brands of alcohol 9 Other actions not listed above 9 Cut down on smoking 8 Cut down on holidays/short breaks 8 Delay the replacement of major household items 7 Cut down on at-home entertainment 4 Cut out annual holiday 4 Source: The Nielsen Company, Global Online Survey, Q3 2010 “Consumer confidence in Latin America continues to report steady levels.” 11
  • 12. Country Abbreviations Argentina AR Italy IT Thailand TH Australia AU Japan JP Turkey TR Austria AT Latvia LV United Arab Emirates AE Belgium BE Lithuania LT United Kingdom GB Brazil BR Malaysia MY Ukraine UA Canada CA Mexico MX United States US China CN Netherlands NL Vietnam VN Colombia CO New Zealand NZ Croatia HR Norway NO Czech Republic CZ Pakistan PK Denmark DK Philippines PH Region Abbreviations Egypt EG Poland PL Estonia EE Portugal PT AP Asia Pacific Finland FI Romania RO EU Europe France FR Russia RU LA Latin America Germany DE Saudi Arabia SA MEAP Middle East, Africa, Pakistan Greece GR Singapore SG NA North America Hong Kong HK South Africa ZA Hungary HU South Korea KO India IN Spain ES Indonesia ID Sweden SE Ireland IE Switzerland CH Israel IL Taiwan TW About the Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey The Nielsen Global Consumer Confidence Survey was conducted between September 3 and September 21, 2010 and polled over 26,000 consumers in 53 countries throughout Asia Pacific, Europe, Latin America, the Middle East and North America about their confidence levels and economic outlook. The Nielsen Consumer Confidence Index is developed based on consumers’ confidence in the job market, status of their personal finances and readiness to spend. The sample has quotas based on age and sex for each country based on their Internet users, and is weighted to be representative of Internet consumers and has a maximum margin of error of ±0.6%. About The Nielsen Company The Nielsen Company is a global information and measurement company with leading market positions in marketing and consumer information, television and other media measurement, online intelligence, mobile measurement, trade shows and related assets. The privately held company has a presence in approximately 100 countries, with headquarters in New York, USA. For more information, please visit, www.nielsen.com. Copyright © 2010 The Nielsen Company. All rights reserved. Produced in the U.S.A. Nielsen and the Nielsen logo are trademarks or registered trademarks of CZT/ACN Trademarks, L.L.C. 10/2205 12