FUPOL - a new approach to E-Governance (Peter Sonntagbauer)

FUTURE POLICY MODELLING (FUPOL)
MAY 2012

www.fupol.eu www.facebook.com/fupol

 Overview
 Current Status
 Q&A, discussion


FUPOL: Facts and Figures

 FP7 Research Project 2011 – 2015 with a budget of 9,0 Mio EUR
 Objective: An integrated governance model for cities based on social media
policy simulation and related IT tools
 Good balance of international ICT companies, universities and political institutions
 17 Partners from Austria, Croatia, China, Cyprus, France, Germany, Italy, Latvia,
Romania, Spain, UK


Starting point: Urbanization as
a 21st century megatrend

 1800: 2 percent of the world was urban.
 1900: 14 percent urban.
 2008, the world crossed the 50 percent threshold.
 2050, it is expected that the world will be 80 percent urban.

90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
1800 1850 1900 1950 2008 2050


Resulting urban policy challenges
and topics as a project focus

Land Use Policy Housing Policy Integration Policy

2011/2012

Urban Sprawl Affordable Housing Segregation
Efficient land use Slums Exclusion

Environment Tourism Policy Budget Policy

2012/2013
(currently being
evaluated)

Pollution Sustainable Participative Budgeting
Impact Forecast
Low Carbon Tourism


Objective: A comprehensive
solution to support policy design

Urban Policies Simulation
Policy Models
Training Material and Guidelines

Recommendation

FUPOL

IT TOOLBOX



Application Scope:
Policy Design Process (simplified)

Automatically collect, analyze and interpret
opinions expressed on a large scale from the
Internet
„Hot“ Topic sensing

Involve Stakeholders through Multichannel
social computing and crowd sourcing to
change the way politicians communicate with
citizens
Stakeholder Involvement
Simulate the effects of policies and laws and to
assist governments in the whole policy design
process and get feedback again

Scenarios, Simulation


Automatically collect and analyze
opinions from social media

 What is the current concern of citizens „Hot Topics“
 Social Media offer new opportunities complementing „traditional“ channels
such as surveys, face to face meetings


Backend to existing social media
presence of a city

 Hot Topic Sensing complements existing social media presence
 Backend to automatically analyze messages and group them
 FUPOL method based on statistical algorithms (LDA) and machine learning –
works with any European language


Select priority topic and initiate
public deliberation

 Decision maker selects priority topic
 Initiates public discussion through various social media
 „Single Window“ through central dashboard

Malibu Square
Renovation We intend to renovate
Malibu square,. What
should be done ?
Send us your ideas !


Crowdsourcing : Get feedback and
ideas from e-citizen

 Location based feedback from e-citizens
 Rating and selection of best ideas with idea management system
 Improves acceptance by e-citizen

© Meipi Prato

Simulate and optimize scenarios

 Simulation: Anticipate the impact of policies
 More transparency for decision makers, administration and citizen

Land Use Schiphol 2012 2030 after implementing a policy
to attract industrial investment

Source: RIKS


Find and visualize knowledge to
evaluate scenarios

 FUPOL-Knowledge database
 Identify and visualize urban data (statistics)
 Identify related studies
 Find best practice
 Evaluate scenarios


Implementation strategy (I)
User driven innovation

 User driven innovation means
- thorough understanding of requirements and current challenges in city
administrations drives R & D
- close contact to pilot cities and potential users in other cities through F2F
meetings and workshops
- Major Cities of Europe (www.majorcities.eu) in the consortium


Implementation strategy (II)
Agile based on SCRUM

• Incremental delivery of working software
• Continuous multi-level integration
t • High level of test automation
• Iterative approach
• Short controlling cycles (monthly or 2 weeks, tbc)
t • Timeboxed
• Output planning based on user stories
• Priority of work based on „value added“ (business
$ $ value, risk mitigation, knowledge gained, …)
t • Valuable work has a higher priority than less
valuable work


Continous release of results

Research & Development

Testing / Pilots

Rel 0.1
July 2012 Exploitation

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


Status and results

Overall progressing as planned, software development 3 months ahead of
schedule because of the agile methodology

 Policy design
 Urban policy domains analyzed and prioritized
 Analysis of social media in urban politics finalized
 Study of data protection issues completed

 Policy simulation
 Some policy models defined as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps & causal models
 Land use SW state of the art analyzed
 Land use protoype in NETLOGO implemented


Status and results

 Software development
 Requirements collected, IT-architecture defined
 Enterprise GIS set-up
 Software development started in March 2012

 Visualization: State of the art study concluded

 Hot Topic Sensing & Topic summarization:
 State of the Art analysis concluded
 Design initiated


Policy domain selection

 Land-use, housing, segregation selected for 2011/2012 and policy design
processes, data and indicators of selected domains studied
 Domain selection criteria
1. Linkage of the domain to a major urban challenge - this refers to the
linkage of the domain to a major urban challenge such as urban
sprawl, slums, etc.
2. Availability of statistical data - this is important, because without data
simulation is very difficult.
3. Pilot city priority - the priorities assigned by the pilot cities were
important in the overall ranking.
4. Overall priority – finally the overall priorities (European and
worldwide).


Policy Models and simulation

 Some policy models defined as Fuzzy Cognitive Maps & Causal Models
 Building models, which are applicable across different countries and cultures
could be a challenge


Analysis social media in urban
politics, status and best practice

 Not in widespread use – benefits are not recognized
 Weak point: Social media strategy
 Weak point: Social media guidelines for employees
 Some politicians are afraid of social media, because they cannot
be controlled
 City administrations fear additional workload and „PR-disasters“ resulting
from bad communication between civil servants and citizens

Social medias usage model developed as part of the FUPOL policy guidelines


Proposed Model
Social Media in Urban Politics


Data Protection & Social Media

 Social Media data (postings etc) can be processed, because the individual has
unambiguously given his or her consent
 However it has been decided to anonymize them for further processing


IT-Platform: Core Platform
Architecture decided

FUPOL uses a service oriented architecture (SOA)

Modules communicate over the ESB using standard protocols
(WFS/WCS/WMS/SPARQL) if possible and proprietary APIs (FUPOL Core API over
SOAP) if no standards apply (i.e. campaign data, user activity,…)


IT-Platform: „Campaign“ in the
policy design process

„Campaigns“ maintains the sequence of actions and their results by the
user (facilitator) in the policy design process and its results
The facilitator writes
The facilitator creates his final report and
The facilitator adds closes the campaign.
topic trees using the
data from the data/ Some generated data
topicalization tool
The facilitator knowledge base might be added to the
creates a The facilitator starts data base for later
new campaign the simulation and reuse
The facilitator collects adds the results
social media data using
the crawler

time


IT-Platform: Enterprise GIS set-up

Maps INSPIRE
data

Maps names
to coordinates

Used by Stores
the sysop all data
Provides
WFS/WCS/WMS


Hot topic sensing

 State of the art and social media monitoring tools evaluated
 Data sourcing: How to reduce them to the relevant postings ?
 Conventional keyword search available in many social media
monitoring tools is unsuitable
 Predefined sources (certain blogs, Twitter hashtags..) is an option
 Better option is to use geolocalized data of postings from social networks
as a filter (if available)


Automatic Topic Summarization:
State of the art study finalized

 We can determine the „representative‟ sentences in an input with good
accuracy. Depending on the domain, we can determine if sentences evoke
positive or negative feelings towards a topic
 There is some ability to model the structure of a conversation in an online
forum and understand the progression of an argument/discussion
 There is very little work on true abstractive summarization; most results
are simply extracted phrases/sentences from an input
 Difficulties when the data is “noisy” (i.e. poor spelling, use of slang, etc.)

Summary

Documents belonging
to the same topic


Automatic Topic summarization:
Methods under investigation

“Traditional” summaries of citizen comments:
Processed extracted sentences that are representative of citizens‟ comments
strung together into a shorter representation

“Report”-style summaries of comments: Generated text that describes
important discussed issues along with some analysis and example comments

Ranked “topic”-word and -sentence lists of comment themes: Lists of
discovered words and sentences that are representative of citizens‟ comments

“Opinion” summaries: Summaries that highlight the diverging opinions or
sentiment (positive/negative) on different topics/projects


Upcoming….

 June 2012 Major Cities of Europe Conference 2012 in Vienna:
Important event – user dialogue through a workshop
 July 2012 First release of software core platform
 August 2012 Second release of software core platform
 October 2012 First set of policy models and other documents (e.g. pilot
planning)


Take Part !

 Follow us:
 Website (www.fupol.eu)
 Facebook (www.facebook.com/fupol)
 LinkedIn
 Take part: Test and evaluate the FUPOL results
 Establish relations to exchange views

Dr. Peter Sonntagbauer
Project Director FUPOL

cellent AG

Tel.: +43 (1) 532 78 03-0
Fax: +43 (1) 532 78 03-33
Mobile: +43 (676) 42 84 724
e-mail peter.sonntagbauer@cellent.at
www.facebook.com/peter.sonntagbauer

at.linkedin.com/in/petersonntagbauer

Sonntagbauer, Peter


THANK YOU
FOR YOUR ATTENTION


FUPOL - a new approach to E-Governance (Peter Sonntagbauer)

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