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BANCON 2013

Two decades of credit
management in banks:

Looking back and moving ahead
K.C. Chakrabarty
Deputy Governor
Reserve Bank of India
Introduction
 Business of banking is business of intermediation
 Credit risk is integral to banking business

 When banking was simple
 Lending decisions - made on impressionistic basis
 Credit risk management – straightforward
 Information requirements – minimal

 As
banking
sophisticate

became

diverse,

complex,

 Risks increased, became transmitive and contagious
 But, credit risk management – lagged behind
 And, information systems – remained primitive and did
not capture granular data correctly
Objectives

 Examine how Indian banks have dealt with credit risk
over the last two decades
 Evolution of regulatory framework
 Analyse trends in asset quality of Indian banks





Trends in gross and net NPAs
Trends in slippages, write offs and recoveries
Trends in restructuring
Dwell on some facets that have a bearing on the asset
quality of banks







Risk management and primitive information systems
GDP growth trends
Size / segment analysis of impaired assets
General governance and management structure
Credit appraisal and monitoring standards

 Way forward for the regulators, policy makers, banks
and bank customers
Evolution of NPA
regulation in India
Prudential norms for NPAs
 1985
 First-ever system of NPA classification - ‘Health Code’ system
 Classification of advances into eight categories ranging
from 1 (Satisfactory) to 8 (Bad and Doubtful Debts)

 1992
 Prudential norms on income recognition, asset classification
and provisioning introduced
 Restructuring guidelines introduced
 Assets, where the terms of the loan agreement regarding
interest and principal is renegotiated or rescheduled after
commencement of production to be classified as substandard
 2001
 90 day norm for NPAs introduced (effective from March 31,
2004)
 specified asset classification treatment of restructured
accounts tightened
NPA trends – Reflecting regulatory initiatives
 NPAs rose when prudential regulations introduced - reduced
thereafter as regulatory initiatives facilitated improved credit risk
management by banks
 Pace of introduction / tightening of regulatory reforms slowed after
2001


Regulatory norms were not further tightened during the “good” pre-crisis
years




Reflected in poor credit standards and increased delinquencies

Provisioning levels remained low for the Indian banking sector


Norms with regard to floating provisions changed



Provisioning coverage ratio was introduced but relaxed thereafter



Dynamic provisioning coverage yet to be introduced



Mere tweaking and flip flop approach to Prudential norms



Restructuring increased as regulatory requirements were relaxed,
especially in the post crisis years


One time special dispensation for asset classification of restructured
accounts provided to deal with the impact of the global financial crisis
Trends in asset quality
Trends in gross and net NPAs
 Early 1990s
 NPA ratios rose
 Immediate impact of
prudential norms

 Thereafter, the NPA ratios
declined
 Improved risk management
 Increased write offs
 Rising credit growth / robust
economic growth
 Abundant liquidity conditions
 Increased restructuring

GNPA

NNPAs

1997-2001

12.8

8.4

2001-2005

8.5

4.2

2005-2009

 In recent years, NPA ratios
have been rising, though on
an average, the ratios are
not higher

Average NPA in %

3.1

1.2

2009-2013

2.6

1.2

Mar 2013

3.6

1.9

Sep 2013

4.2

2.2
Divergent bank group wise trends


1996-2003 – wide variation
between NPA ratio of PSBs
and other bank groups



2003-06 - NPA ratios of all
bank groups moved in
tandem



2007-09 – NPA ratios begin to
decouple



After 2009, gap between
PSBs and other bank groups
started rising
PSBs – growing asset quality concerns
 PSBs share a disproportionate and increasing
burden of NPAs – especially in recent years
Looking beyond the veil of headline numbers
Gross and net NPAs numbers have limitations!
In the 1990s, only data about gross and net NPAs were
available
Subsequently, data on flow of NPAs (fresh accretions and
recoveries) collected, followed by data on restructuring,
which allowed better understanding of the real problem of
credit management in the banks
A more detailed understanding of trends in asset quality of
banks required collection and analysis of granular data about
various aspects of NPA management viz. Slippages, Write offs
and Recoveries – Segment wise and activity wise

Such data has been collected only in recent years(since
2009), largely due to regulatory impetus
The current analysis is an attempt to examine trends in asset
quality based on this detailed information
NPA movement over the last decade
 Increasing slippages and write offs since the crisis years
 New accretion to NPAs exceeds reduction in NPAs post
crisis
All amount in Rs crore
2001-2013
60,434

2001-2007
60,434

2007-2013
50,513

New Accretion to NPAs
during the period

629,058

161,406

494,836

Reduction in NPAs
during the period

492,903

169,889

350,332

Due to upgradation

110,918

24,003

90,887

Due to write-off

204,512

74,838

141,295

Due to actual
recovery

177,473

71,049

118,149

NPAs at Beginning of the
period

NPAs at End of the
period

193,200

50,513

193,200
Slippages … Trends
 Slippages – better metric to assess credit
management
 Slippages & net slippages
 Showed a declining trend in the early 2000s;
started rising since 2006-07
Recovery efforts deteriorating
 Extent to which banks able to reduce NPAs through
recovery efforts deteriorating
 evidenced by increasing ratio of slippages to recovery
and upgradation
Slippage to (Recovery +
Upgradation) Ratio
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13

190.5
167.1
129.5
125.4
173.2
205.2
221.0
264.1
217.0
255.9
257.0

Average Slippage to
(Recovery + Upgradation) Ratio
PSB

OPB

NPB

FB

2001-13

191.1

191.3

452.8 438.6

2001-07

211.3

179.6

376.6 350.6

2007-13

220.6

202.7

418.7 430.3
Recovery & write offs – associated moral hazard
Write offs contributing significantly in reduction in NPAs




Reducing incentives to improve recovery efforts



Slippages exceeding reduction in NPAs especially post crisis



The trends indicate weaknesses in credit as well as recovery management
Upgradation as
% of reduction
in NPAs

Mar-01
Mar-02
Mar-03
Mar-04
Mar-05
Mar-06
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13

Write off as %
of reduction in
NPAs

Recovery as %
of reduction in
NPAs

12.6
12.0
16.0
12.3
15.2
15.2
14.5
17.4
23.8
21.3
24.2
31.7
33.1

39.3
49.4
50.7
48.3
39.0
40.2
42.5
40.7
39.6
50.2
42.4
33.4
37.8

48.1
38.7
33.4
39.4
45.8
44.6
42.9
41.8
36.6
28.4
33.4
34.9
29.2

Upgradation as a % of
slippages

2001-13

17.6

2001-07

14.9

2007-13

18.4

Reduction as a % of
slippages

2001-13

78.4

2001-07

105.3

2007-13

70.8
Divergent bank group wise trends - slippages





In the aftermath of the
crisis, slippage ratios rose,
especially for FBs and
NPBs
FBs and NPBs, though
quickly arrested
deterioration in asset
quality post-crisis through
improved credit risk
management

Slippage
Ratio

PSB

OPB

NPB

FB

Mar-07

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.5

Mar-08

1.7

1.4

2.1

2.1

Mar-09

1.8

1.9

3.0

5.5

Mar-10

2.0

2.2

2.0

5.5

Mar-11

2.2

1.7

1.3

2.2

Mar-12

2.8

1.5

1.1

2.3

Mar-13

3.1

1.8

1.2

1.8

In recent years, the ratio
rose sharply for PSBs

OPB

NPB

FB

2001-13

2.7

2.6

3.9

2.8

2001-07



Average
slippage ratio PSB
3.2

3.3

5.7

2.4

2007-13

2.2

1.8

1.8

3.0

Slippage ratio = fresh accretion to NPAs during the
year to standard advances at the beginning of the
Divergent bank group wise trends – net slippages


Recovery performance also varied across banks as
revealed by trends in net slippages

Net Slippage
Ratio
Mar-07
Mar-08
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13

PSB

OPB

NPB

FB

0.6
0.7
0.7
1.2
1.2
1.8
1.9

0.5
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.7
0.6
0.8

1.5
1.8
2.4
1.5
0.6
0.5
0.6

1.0
1.6
4.7
3.9
0.6
1.5
1.1

Average net PSB
slippage ratio

OPB

NPB

FB

2001-13

1.3

1.3

2.5

1.8

2001-07

1.3

1.6

3.6

1.4

2007-13

1.2

0.8

1.3

2.1

Net slippage ratio is slippage ratio net of recoveries
Divergent bank group wise trends –
slippages and fresh restructured accounts
 The

bank group wise trends in slippages are
further re-enforced when the trends in
slippages and fresh restructuring are
examined
Slippages + fresh restructured ratio

Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13

PSB
5.2
5.6
3.2
6.5
7.1

OPB
5.2
4.0
2.7
2.8
3.4

NPB
3.9
4.0
1.5
1.9
1.8

FB
6.8
6.8
2.3
2.3
1.8
Conclusions ..
 Standards of credit and recovery administration is
inefficient and poor as is reflected from the fact that
upgradation as a % of slippage is very low – only less
than 20 % of accounts have been upgraded
 Recoveries are very less- A major part of reduction is
through write-off
 Even during 2001-07, recoveries and upgradation were
not as good-things have considerably deteriorated
thereafter
 Gross NPA in itself not a problem but in conjunction
with restructured advances they have emerged as a
major issue
Restructured Accounts … Trends


Growth in restructured accounts


mixed trend in early 2000s



sharp uptick in 2008 / 2009 due to the one time regulatory dispensation



Continued high growth rate thereafter
Restructured Accounts … Use and Misuse
 Forbearance a necessity, especially for viable accounts
facing temporary difficulties
 But, increasing evidence of misuse of facility for “evergreening” of problem accounts by banks
 Restructuring of unviable units
 Deserving & viable units especially for small borrowers
get overlooked
 Promoters contribution to equity not ensured
 Restructuring increasingly used as a tool of NPA management
by banks
(GNPA +
All Banks
(%)

Mar09

GNPA
Ratio

2.4

(GNPA +
Rest. Std.
Adv) to
Total Adv.

5.1

Mar Mar- Mar- Mar
-10
11
12
-13

Rest. Std.
Adv) to
Total Adv.

MarMar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13
09

6.7

2.3

5.8

2.9

7.6

3.4

9.2

PSBs

5.1

7.3

6.6

8.9

11.1

OPBs

2.5

5.7

5.9

4.9

5.3

5.9

NPBs

5.5

4.8

3.2

3.2

3.1

FBs

5.0

4.7

2.7

2.8

3.1
Write-Off and recovery from Write-offs
Recovery from written off Accounts during the FY ended
(Rs. crore)
Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

All
Banks

424

501

479

1,065

1,768

2,902

2,480

3,101

3,686

4,362

5,036

5,191

6,960

PSBs

418

494

463

1,008

1,612

2,699

2,220

2,824

3,372

3,819

4,412

4,656

5,953

OPBs

2

3

5

26

45

84

132

173

217

207

231

201

200

NPBs

3

2

4

30

111

109

120

87

92

197

327

294

779

FBs

0

1

6

0

0

10

8

16

4

139

66

40

29

Write offs of NPAs during the FY ended
Mar-01

Mar-02

Mar-03

Mar-04

Mar-05

Mar-06

Mar-07

Mar-08

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

All
Banks

6,446

8,711

12,021

13,559

10,823

11,657

11,621

11,653

15,996

25,019

23,896

20,892

32,218

PSBs

5,555

6,428

9,448

11,308

8,048

8,799

9,189

8,019

6,966

11,185

17,794

15,551

27,013

OPBs

331

588

653

525

464

544

610

724

616

884

682

671

863

NPBs

580

896

1,564

1,286

1,682

1,409

1,232

1,577

5,063

6,712

2,336

3,024

3,487

20

798

356

440

628

905

590

1,334

3,350

6,238

3,083

1,646

855

FBs

Substantial Write-off but recovery from write-off has been very poor
Divergent bank group wise trends in
restructuring and write -off



Asset quality deteriorates further if restructured accounts and write
offs are included, especially in the case of PSBs
Banks which are more aggressive in identifying NPAs appear to be
able to manage them better
Impaired Assets ratio
Mar-09
Mar-10
Mar-11
Mar-12
Mar-13

PSB
6.8
8.8
8.1
10.0
12.1

OPB
6.8
7.3
6.1
6.3
6.8

NPB
6.6
7.3
5.5
5.4
5.3

FB
6.5
9.5
7.2
6.6
6.4

Impaired Assets ratio = (GNPA + Restructured Standard Advances +Cumulative write off) to (Total Advances +
Cumulative write off)
Conclusions …..
 Only less then 10% of the total amount written off
(including the Technical Write-off ) is recovered
 The amount of restructuring and write –offs
distorts inter-segment comparison of credit
quality
 Technical write –off creates moral hazard
 Write offs creates a dent in overall recovery
efforts
Segment wise NPA Trends
 Deterioration in asset quality highest for industries’ segment
 Though banks devote fewer resources to the administration
of small credits vis-à-vis larger credits



Within industries segment - deterioration driven by medium
and large enterprises (50% share in NPAs)
Impaired Assets ratio
in %
Micro+Small
Medium+Large

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12

Mar-13

10.7

10.6

9.4

9.7

10.6

7.8

9.4

8.0

11.2

14.8
Infrastructure finance – significantly affected
Infrastructure projects – strain on
banks
 regulatory, administrative and
legal constraints
 Banks’
took
inadequate
cognizance of the need for
contingency planning for large
projects in their appraisal

 absence or insufficiency of user
charges

Impaired Assets ratio
In %
Mining
Iron and Steel
Textiles
Infrastructure
Real Estate
Aviation

Mar-09

Mar-13

4
8
14
5
1
1

9
15
23
16
2
27

Increase in NPA by adding restructuring & write off - 2009 vs 2013
Large ticket advances – greater share in
restructured accounts
 Restructuring – provided primarily to large corporates
 medium and large accounts make up over 90 per
cent of restructured accounts
 larger ticket accounts hold major share in CDR
in %
Share in total
bank credit
Share in total
bank NPA
Share in total
bank
restructuring

Mar-09

Mar-10

Mar-11

Mar-12 Mar-13

Micro+Small

10.1

11.4

12.0

10.8

10.7

Medium+Large

39.9

42.9

45.0

46.8

48.4

Micro+Small

16.1

20.4

21.1

17.5

17.2

Medium+Large

23.8

28.7

27.5

37.7

48.8

Micro+Small

12.2

7.7

7.7

4.3

3.4

Medium+Large

77.4

69.6

71.1

83.0

90.8
Asset quality worse for Directed Lending –
A myth
 General belief is that directed lending has contributed
to rising NPAs
 GNPA ratio higher for priority sector than non-priority
sector
 However, considering restructured accounts and write
offs, asset quality worse for the non-priority sector

Priority sector

Non Priority sector
Study Conclusions & Other Issues :

Why high NPA and such poor
state of Credit Management?
Primitive Information Systems
 Improvements in information systems were
not coincident with increased size of asset
portfolio, increasing complexities in credit
management
 Banks ability to manage the quality of their
asset portfolio remained weak given
 The lack of granular data on slippages, early
indications of deterioration in asset quality,
segment wise, trends, etc.
 Banks failed in identifying / arresting the early
pre-crisis trends – from 2005-06 - in asset quality
deterioration
GDP slowdown leading to increased NPAs!
Recent decline in asset quality coincided with
deceleration in GDP growth
Higher NPAs only a result of GDP slowdown?
Beginnings of deterioration in asset quality started ahead of
slowdown in economic growth
Growth rate of GNPAs started rising before the crisis even as
the pace of slippages turned sharply positive in 2006-07
Asset quality of PSBs – Economic downturn
or sub-optimal credit management?
 Recent increase in NPAs not reflected across all
bank groups
 Though economic downturn faced by all banks

 Early threats to asset quality - swiftly and
effectively managed by private sector and
foreign banks
 PSBs suffer from structural deficiencies related to
the
management
and
governance
arrangements
 Reflected in lacunae in credit management
 Pre-dates the crisis, but not dealt with on time,
unlike in the case of the FBs and NPBs
Lax Credit Management
 Deficiencies
in
credit
management crept in during
the pre-crisis “good years”
 In general, banks with high credit
growth in 2004-08 ended up with
higher NPA growth in 2008-13


The appraisal process failed to
differentiate between promoter’s
debt and equity
 Promoters equity contribution
declined / leverage higher

 Credit
monitoring
neglected

was

 Recovery efforts slowed


Legal infrastructure for recovery
remained non-supportive

 Restructuring became rampant

PSB
OPB
NPB
FB
Increasing frauds – or are they business
failures?







Increasing
incidence
of
frauds,
especially
large
value frauds in recent years
Over 64 % of fraud cases are
advances related – over
70% in case of large value
frauds (over Rs. 50 crore)
Poor appraisal and
absence of equity has led to
larger no. of advance
related frauds especially
through diversion
Moral hazard associated
with identifying business
failures as frauds
 Lacunae in credit
appraisal not identified
 Fixation of Staff
accountability a
casualty

Advance Related Frauds (>Rs. 1cr)
 

2010-11

2011-12

2012-13

Amt
Bank
Amt
No.
No.
Group
(in cr.)

(in
cr.)

Cumulative
(end Mar13)

Amt
No.

(in
cr.)

No.

Amt
(in cr.)

PSBs

201

1820

228 2961 309 6078 1792 14577

OPB

20

289

14

63

12

49

149

767

NPB

18

234

12

75

24

67

363

1068

FB

3

33

19

83

4

16

456

  277

Grand
242
Total

2376

273 3183 349 6212 2760 16690
Credit appraisal suffered…(1)


Poor Credit appraisal at the time of sanctioning as also at the time of
restruturing



Significant increase in indebtedness of large business groups




Sample of 10 large corporate groups - credit more than doubled between 2007 and
2013 even while overall debt rose 6 times

Credit growth concentrated in segments with higher level of impairment


Lending elevated in several sectors where impairments were higher than
average

CAGR of
credit
20092012

Impaired
Assets ratio
(March
2013)

Iron and Steel

25

15

Infrastructure

33

16

Power

41

18

Telecom
Aggregate
banking sector

28

16

19

11

Sectors

Source : Credit Suisse Research
Credit appraisal suffered…(2)
 Indian corporates - accessing international markets
to raise capital
 Risk from un-hedged exposures
 Risk from increase in interest rates
 Impact could spill-over to lenders

 Project risks not taken due cognizance of
 Contingency planning for large projects

 Restructuring extended to large corporates that
faced problems of over-leverage and inadequate
profitability
 Companies with dwindling repayment capacity to
repay debt - raising more and more debt from banks
 ability of corporates to service debt was falling
 exposure of companies to interest rate risk was rising
Conclusions …..
 High credit growth in select sectors has led to decline in
credit quality in subsequent periods
 High incidence of advance related frauds are an
outcome of deficient credit appraisal standards
 Level of Leverage of corporate borrowers, credit
growth, diversion of funds, sub standard assets and
fraud cases are highly correlated. They are first order
derivative of improper credit and recovery
management
Summing up…. (1)
 Current NPA levels - not alarming though could pose
concern if current trends persist
All Banks
Year

PSBs

Old Pvt. Sec. New Pvt. Sec
Foreign Banks
Banks
Banks

GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA
Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio

Mar 94

19.07 13.71 21.11 15.44

6.93

3.88

-

-

1.46

-0.65

Mar-95

15.31 10.46 17.12 11.98

7.35

4.12

2.21

0.93

1.62

-0.91

Mar-97

14.33

9.50

16.44 11.15

8.29

4.66

2.92

2.51

3.57

1.02

Mar-99

13.34

8.99

14.63 10.17 13.02

7.82

4.55

3.52

5.00

0.86

Mar-01

11.14

6.28

11.99

6.97

11.86

6.71

5.40

3.21

6.69

1.72

Mar-03

8.81

4.42

9.36

4.54

8.86

5.41

7.50

4.67

5.34

1.76

Mar-05

4.94

1.96

5.38

2.07

5.97

2.72

2.93

1.53

3.01

0.87
Summing up…. (2)
 Stress testing reveals resilience of banking system due to
strong capital position
June 2013

CRAR

Core CRAR

GNPA
Ratio

Losses as % of
Capital

Baseline

13.4

9.7

4.0

-

NPA increases by 50%
NPA increases by 100%

11.5

8.0

5.9

15.4

10.6

7.0

7.9

23.2

9.6

6.0

9.9

31.0

30% of restructured advances
turn into NPAs (Sub-Standard)

12.1

8.6

5.7

10.4

30% of restructured advances
written off (Loss)

11.2

7.6

5.7

18.2

NPA increases by 150%
Summing up .… (3)
Provision coverage ratios of Indian banks low by
international standards – declining in recent times
Stressed Assets Provision Coverage Ratio
Provision Coverage Ratio presents a dismal picture when
Restructured Standard Advances are also considered

Mar 2009

Mar 2010

Mar 2011

Mar 2012

Mar 2013

38.47

29.61

34.29

30.00

27.71

OPBs

33.16

35.40

41.58

33.31

31.11

NPBs

38.91

42.64

63.25

55.52

53.73

FBs

51.58

57.73

81.75

83.44

74.04

All Banks

34.80

30.78

36.25

33.00

30.25

PSBs

Stressed Assets Provision Coverage Ratio defined as {(Total Provisions (excl. Provision for std adv) + Tech
W/Os) to (GNPAs + Rest Std Adv + Tech W/Os)}
Concluding
Thoughts
Key Messages …..(1)
 Present level of stressed asset as an outcome is not a
big problem but present processes, systems and
structure of creation of stressed assets are a big
problem.
 Existing level of NPAs are manageable but if corrective
actions to arrest the slide in NPA are not initiated, the
stability of financial system will be at great risk.
 Gross NPAs are not alarming but the quantum and
growth of restructured assets is of great concern
 Economic slowdown and global meltdown are not the
primary reason for creation of stressed assets but the
state of credit and recovery administration in the
system involving banks, borrowers, policy makers,
regulators and legal system have contributed
significantly to the present state of affairs.
Key Messages ….(2)
 Credit quality has a high positive correlation with the
prudential norms and regulations prescribed by RBI
 Laxity, soft and flip-flop approach to regulatory and
prudential norms have contributed significantly to
creation of NPAs and stressed assets in the system
 Level of Leverage of corporate borrowers, credit growth,
diversion of funds, sub standard assets and fraud cases
are highly correlated. They are first order derivative of
improper credit and recovery management.
 Less than 20% of NPAs are upgraded
 Reduction of NPAs is less than slippages
 About 50% reduction in NPA is through write-off
Key Messages ….(3)
 Banks following the process of recognizing NPAs quickly
and more aggressively are having better control over
NPAs.
 Appraisal standards are lax for bigger loans both at the
time of sanction as also restructuring while appraisal rules
are very stringent for smaller borrowers
 Restructuring and write off processes are highly biased
towards bigger loans as compared to smaller loans.
 Credit risk for small borrowers is lower than that for bigger
borrowers
 Credit risk in priority sector is less than in the non-priority
sector
 High pace of credit growth has resulted in lower credit
quality in subsequent periods
Measures …….(1)
 Credit Appraisal needs to be strengthened with focus on:
 Quantum of equity brought in by the promoters
 Sources of Equity
 Contingency Planning in respect of infrastructure
projects
 Improve appraisal and approval process for restructuring
proposals
 Benefits of restructuring to be also extended to
smaller borrowers
 CDR Mechanism grossly misutilised and needs a thorough
overhaul
 Need for an oversight structure for dealing with
restructuring of large ticket advances
 Independent body to oversee CDR mechanism
Measures …..(2)
 Restructuring and Technical Write-off as a prudential
measure should be eased out by the regulator
 Existing NPAs need careful examination for determining
rehabilitation or recovery
 Conduct viability study
 Quick rehabilitation with support from both –the
bank and the borrower
 Those who put spoke needs to be sufficiently disincentivized
 Bring new promoter if the existing promoter unable
to bring new equity
 Restructuring decision should be left to the bank
Quick and determined action is the need of the hour !
Recommendations and
Way ahead
Recommendations and way ahead
 Short run
 Addressing the existing stock of impaired assets – NPAs
and restructured
 Time bound revival or recovery

 Long run
 Robust risk management
 Improved information system
 Facilitating granular analysis of trends in asset quality

 Improved credit management
 Credit appraisal and monitoring

 Facilitative regulatory and legal infrastructure
Short term: Review of NPAs / restructured
advances

 Assess viability of NPA and restructured accounts – on
case-to-case basis
 Pre-stipulated time-frame for review/ restructuring
 Accounts found viable
 Promoters to assume their share of losses - not resort to
further borrowing for equity


If need be bring new promoters



Burden to be equally shared

 Restructuring of small accounts - Reorient restructuring towards
small customers – SMEs, priority sector

 Accounts found to be un-viable


Put under time bound asset recovery



banks takeover of units where promoters’ equity is low



sale of assets to ARCs
Improve credit risk management
Enhanced Credit Appraisal


Group Leverage, Source/ structure of equity capital



Complex project structure (as in SPV)



External constraints – effective contingency planning



Keep a check on credit growth and linkage with equity

Need for quicker decision making


Appraisal, sanction, disbursement - timely and fast



More compassion to smaller borrower and increased stringency for larger
borrowers

Strengthen Credit Monitoring


Comprehensive MIS
viability assessment

and Early Warning Systems to facilitate regular

Enforce accountability


Accountability on Individuals and all levels of hierarchy



Accountability to encompass all aspects of credit management



Accountability for delayed decision making / non-action
Improved information systems
 Information systems
management

–

the

backbone

of

credit

risk

 Robust information systems needed
 Facilitate more intensive data capturing
 Integrated into decision making, capital planning, business
strategies, and reviewing achievements.

 Enable timely detection of problem accounts,
 Flag early signs of delinquencies,
 Facilitate timely information to management on these
aspects
 Coordinating mechanism across departments within a
bank and across banks

 MIS for capturing common exposure across banks
Regulatory framework
 Need to review the existing regulatory arrangements for
asset classification and provisioning
 Facilitative and practical regulation
 Restructured accounts to be classified as NPA – aligning
domestic norms with global best practices
 The practice of technical write offs of NPAs to be
dispensed with
 Increased provisioning requirements in line with
international norms and to ensure resilience of the
banking system
 Uniform approach to regulation – either principle or rule
based
 For stability in credit risk management practices

Reforming legal & institutional structures
Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) mechanism




Remove existing bias towards large-ticket accounts
Ensure viability and promoters’ stake upfront
Independent oversight of large CDR account

Debt Recovery Tribunals (DRTs) & other legal provisions


Need for vigorous follow up in the case of suit filed accounts



setting up of more DRTs and DRATs

Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs)


Review and revitalise functioning of ARCs

Credit Information Companies (CICs)


Expand use of CICs for credit management
Thank you

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KC Chakrabarty on NPAs in India

  • 1. BANCON 2013 Two decades of credit management in banks: Looking back and moving ahead K.C. Chakrabarty Deputy Governor Reserve Bank of India
  • 2. Introduction  Business of banking is business of intermediation  Credit risk is integral to banking business  When banking was simple  Lending decisions - made on impressionistic basis  Credit risk management – straightforward  Information requirements – minimal  As banking sophisticate became diverse, complex,  Risks increased, became transmitive and contagious  But, credit risk management – lagged behind  And, information systems – remained primitive and did not capture granular data correctly
  • 3. Objectives  Examine how Indian banks have dealt with credit risk over the last two decades  Evolution of regulatory framework  Analyse trends in asset quality of Indian banks     Trends in gross and net NPAs Trends in slippages, write offs and recoveries Trends in restructuring Dwell on some facets that have a bearing on the asset quality of banks      Risk management and primitive information systems GDP growth trends Size / segment analysis of impaired assets General governance and management structure Credit appraisal and monitoring standards  Way forward for the regulators, policy makers, banks and bank customers
  • 5. Prudential norms for NPAs  1985  First-ever system of NPA classification - ‘Health Code’ system  Classification of advances into eight categories ranging from 1 (Satisfactory) to 8 (Bad and Doubtful Debts)  1992  Prudential norms on income recognition, asset classification and provisioning introduced  Restructuring guidelines introduced  Assets, where the terms of the loan agreement regarding interest and principal is renegotiated or rescheduled after commencement of production to be classified as substandard  2001  90 day norm for NPAs introduced (effective from March 31, 2004)  specified asset classification treatment of restructured accounts tightened
  • 6. NPA trends – Reflecting regulatory initiatives  NPAs rose when prudential regulations introduced - reduced thereafter as regulatory initiatives facilitated improved credit risk management by banks  Pace of introduction / tightening of regulatory reforms slowed after 2001  Regulatory norms were not further tightened during the “good” pre-crisis years   Reflected in poor credit standards and increased delinquencies Provisioning levels remained low for the Indian banking sector  Norms with regard to floating provisions changed  Provisioning coverage ratio was introduced but relaxed thereafter  Dynamic provisioning coverage yet to be introduced  Mere tweaking and flip flop approach to Prudential norms  Restructuring increased as regulatory requirements were relaxed, especially in the post crisis years  One time special dispensation for asset classification of restructured accounts provided to deal with the impact of the global financial crisis
  • 7. Trends in asset quality
  • 8. Trends in gross and net NPAs  Early 1990s  NPA ratios rose  Immediate impact of prudential norms  Thereafter, the NPA ratios declined  Improved risk management  Increased write offs  Rising credit growth / robust economic growth  Abundant liquidity conditions  Increased restructuring GNPA NNPAs 1997-2001 12.8 8.4 2001-2005 8.5 4.2 2005-2009  In recent years, NPA ratios have been rising, though on an average, the ratios are not higher Average NPA in % 3.1 1.2 2009-2013 2.6 1.2 Mar 2013 3.6 1.9 Sep 2013 4.2 2.2
  • 9. Divergent bank group wise trends  1996-2003 – wide variation between NPA ratio of PSBs and other bank groups  2003-06 - NPA ratios of all bank groups moved in tandem  2007-09 – NPA ratios begin to decouple  After 2009, gap between PSBs and other bank groups started rising
  • 10. PSBs – growing asset quality concerns  PSBs share a disproportionate and increasing burden of NPAs – especially in recent years
  • 11. Looking beyond the veil of headline numbers Gross and net NPAs numbers have limitations! In the 1990s, only data about gross and net NPAs were available Subsequently, data on flow of NPAs (fresh accretions and recoveries) collected, followed by data on restructuring, which allowed better understanding of the real problem of credit management in the banks A more detailed understanding of trends in asset quality of banks required collection and analysis of granular data about various aspects of NPA management viz. Slippages, Write offs and Recoveries – Segment wise and activity wise Such data has been collected only in recent years(since 2009), largely due to regulatory impetus The current analysis is an attempt to examine trends in asset quality based on this detailed information
  • 12. NPA movement over the last decade  Increasing slippages and write offs since the crisis years  New accretion to NPAs exceeds reduction in NPAs post crisis All amount in Rs crore 2001-2013 60,434 2001-2007 60,434 2007-2013 50,513 New Accretion to NPAs during the period 629,058 161,406 494,836 Reduction in NPAs during the period 492,903 169,889 350,332 Due to upgradation 110,918 24,003 90,887 Due to write-off 204,512 74,838 141,295 Due to actual recovery 177,473 71,049 118,149 NPAs at Beginning of the period NPAs at End of the period 193,200 50,513 193,200
  • 13. Slippages … Trends  Slippages – better metric to assess credit management  Slippages & net slippages  Showed a declining trend in the early 2000s; started rising since 2006-07
  • 14. Recovery efforts deteriorating  Extent to which banks able to reduce NPAs through recovery efforts deteriorating  evidenced by increasing ratio of slippages to recovery and upgradation Slippage to (Recovery + Upgradation) Ratio Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 190.5 167.1 129.5 125.4 173.2 205.2 221.0 264.1 217.0 255.9 257.0 Average Slippage to (Recovery + Upgradation) Ratio PSB OPB NPB FB 2001-13 191.1 191.3 452.8 438.6 2001-07 211.3 179.6 376.6 350.6 2007-13 220.6 202.7 418.7 430.3
  • 15. Recovery & write offs – associated moral hazard Write offs contributing significantly in reduction in NPAs   Reducing incentives to improve recovery efforts  Slippages exceeding reduction in NPAs especially post crisis  The trends indicate weaknesses in credit as well as recovery management Upgradation as % of reduction in NPAs Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Write off as % of reduction in NPAs Recovery as % of reduction in NPAs 12.6 12.0 16.0 12.3 15.2 15.2 14.5 17.4 23.8 21.3 24.2 31.7 33.1 39.3 49.4 50.7 48.3 39.0 40.2 42.5 40.7 39.6 50.2 42.4 33.4 37.8 48.1 38.7 33.4 39.4 45.8 44.6 42.9 41.8 36.6 28.4 33.4 34.9 29.2 Upgradation as a % of slippages 2001-13 17.6 2001-07 14.9 2007-13 18.4 Reduction as a % of slippages 2001-13 78.4 2001-07 105.3 2007-13 70.8
  • 16. Divergent bank group wise trends - slippages   In the aftermath of the crisis, slippage ratios rose, especially for FBs and NPBs FBs and NPBs, though quickly arrested deterioration in asset quality post-crisis through improved credit risk management Slippage Ratio PSB OPB NPB FB Mar-07 1.8 1.8 2.0 1.5 Mar-08 1.7 1.4 2.1 2.1 Mar-09 1.8 1.9 3.0 5.5 Mar-10 2.0 2.2 2.0 5.5 Mar-11 2.2 1.7 1.3 2.2 Mar-12 2.8 1.5 1.1 2.3 Mar-13 3.1 1.8 1.2 1.8 In recent years, the ratio rose sharply for PSBs OPB NPB FB 2001-13 2.7 2.6 3.9 2.8 2001-07  Average slippage ratio PSB 3.2 3.3 5.7 2.4 2007-13 2.2 1.8 1.8 3.0 Slippage ratio = fresh accretion to NPAs during the year to standard advances at the beginning of the
  • 17. Divergent bank group wise trends – net slippages  Recovery performance also varied across banks as revealed by trends in net slippages Net Slippage Ratio Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 PSB OPB NPB FB 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.2 1.8 1.9 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.6 0.8 1.5 1.8 2.4 1.5 0.6 0.5 0.6 1.0 1.6 4.7 3.9 0.6 1.5 1.1 Average net PSB slippage ratio OPB NPB FB 2001-13 1.3 1.3 2.5 1.8 2001-07 1.3 1.6 3.6 1.4 2007-13 1.2 0.8 1.3 2.1 Net slippage ratio is slippage ratio net of recoveries
  • 18. Divergent bank group wise trends – slippages and fresh restructured accounts  The bank group wise trends in slippages are further re-enforced when the trends in slippages and fresh restructuring are examined Slippages + fresh restructured ratio Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 PSB 5.2 5.6 3.2 6.5 7.1 OPB 5.2 4.0 2.7 2.8 3.4 NPB 3.9 4.0 1.5 1.9 1.8 FB 6.8 6.8 2.3 2.3 1.8
  • 19. Conclusions ..  Standards of credit and recovery administration is inefficient and poor as is reflected from the fact that upgradation as a % of slippage is very low – only less than 20 % of accounts have been upgraded  Recoveries are very less- A major part of reduction is through write-off  Even during 2001-07, recoveries and upgradation were not as good-things have considerably deteriorated thereafter  Gross NPA in itself not a problem but in conjunction with restructured advances they have emerged as a major issue
  • 20. Restructured Accounts … Trends  Growth in restructured accounts  mixed trend in early 2000s  sharp uptick in 2008 / 2009 due to the one time regulatory dispensation  Continued high growth rate thereafter
  • 21. Restructured Accounts … Use and Misuse  Forbearance a necessity, especially for viable accounts facing temporary difficulties  But, increasing evidence of misuse of facility for “evergreening” of problem accounts by banks  Restructuring of unviable units  Deserving & viable units especially for small borrowers get overlooked  Promoters contribution to equity not ensured  Restructuring increasingly used as a tool of NPA management by banks (GNPA + All Banks (%) Mar09 GNPA Ratio 2.4 (GNPA + Rest. Std. Adv) to Total Adv. 5.1 Mar Mar- Mar- Mar -10 11 12 -13 Rest. Std. Adv) to Total Adv. MarMar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 09 6.7 2.3 5.8 2.9 7.6 3.4 9.2 PSBs 5.1 7.3 6.6 8.9 11.1 OPBs 2.5 5.7 5.9 4.9 5.3 5.9 NPBs 5.5 4.8 3.2 3.2 3.1 FBs 5.0 4.7 2.7 2.8 3.1
  • 22. Write-Off and recovery from Write-offs Recovery from written off Accounts during the FY ended (Rs. crore) Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 All Banks 424 501 479 1,065 1,768 2,902 2,480 3,101 3,686 4,362 5,036 5,191 6,960 PSBs 418 494 463 1,008 1,612 2,699 2,220 2,824 3,372 3,819 4,412 4,656 5,953 OPBs 2 3 5 26 45 84 132 173 217 207 231 201 200 NPBs 3 2 4 30 111 109 120 87 92 197 327 294 779 FBs 0 1 6 0 0 10 8 16 4 139 66 40 29 Write offs of NPAs during the FY ended Mar-01 Mar-02 Mar-03 Mar-04 Mar-05 Mar-06 Mar-07 Mar-08 Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 All Banks 6,446 8,711 12,021 13,559 10,823 11,657 11,621 11,653 15,996 25,019 23,896 20,892 32,218 PSBs 5,555 6,428 9,448 11,308 8,048 8,799 9,189 8,019 6,966 11,185 17,794 15,551 27,013 OPBs 331 588 653 525 464 544 610 724 616 884 682 671 863 NPBs 580 896 1,564 1,286 1,682 1,409 1,232 1,577 5,063 6,712 2,336 3,024 3,487 20 798 356 440 628 905 590 1,334 3,350 6,238 3,083 1,646 855 FBs Substantial Write-off but recovery from write-off has been very poor
  • 23. Divergent bank group wise trends in restructuring and write -off   Asset quality deteriorates further if restructured accounts and write offs are included, especially in the case of PSBs Banks which are more aggressive in identifying NPAs appear to be able to manage them better Impaired Assets ratio Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 PSB 6.8 8.8 8.1 10.0 12.1 OPB 6.8 7.3 6.1 6.3 6.8 NPB 6.6 7.3 5.5 5.4 5.3 FB 6.5 9.5 7.2 6.6 6.4 Impaired Assets ratio = (GNPA + Restructured Standard Advances +Cumulative write off) to (Total Advances + Cumulative write off)
  • 24. Conclusions …..  Only less then 10% of the total amount written off (including the Technical Write-off ) is recovered  The amount of restructuring and write –offs distorts inter-segment comparison of credit quality  Technical write –off creates moral hazard  Write offs creates a dent in overall recovery efforts
  • 25. Segment wise NPA Trends  Deterioration in asset quality highest for industries’ segment  Though banks devote fewer resources to the administration of small credits vis-à-vis larger credits  Within industries segment - deterioration driven by medium and large enterprises (50% share in NPAs) Impaired Assets ratio in % Micro+Small Medium+Large Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 10.7 10.6 9.4 9.7 10.6 7.8 9.4 8.0 11.2 14.8
  • 26. Infrastructure finance – significantly affected Infrastructure projects – strain on banks  regulatory, administrative and legal constraints  Banks’ took inadequate cognizance of the need for contingency planning for large projects in their appraisal  absence or insufficiency of user charges Impaired Assets ratio In % Mining Iron and Steel Textiles Infrastructure Real Estate Aviation Mar-09 Mar-13 4 8 14 5 1 1 9 15 23 16 2 27 Increase in NPA by adding restructuring & write off - 2009 vs 2013
  • 27. Large ticket advances – greater share in restructured accounts  Restructuring – provided primarily to large corporates  medium and large accounts make up over 90 per cent of restructured accounts  larger ticket accounts hold major share in CDR in % Share in total bank credit Share in total bank NPA Share in total bank restructuring Mar-09 Mar-10 Mar-11 Mar-12 Mar-13 Micro+Small 10.1 11.4 12.0 10.8 10.7 Medium+Large 39.9 42.9 45.0 46.8 48.4 Micro+Small 16.1 20.4 21.1 17.5 17.2 Medium+Large 23.8 28.7 27.5 37.7 48.8 Micro+Small 12.2 7.7 7.7 4.3 3.4 Medium+Large 77.4 69.6 71.1 83.0 90.8
  • 28. Asset quality worse for Directed Lending – A myth  General belief is that directed lending has contributed to rising NPAs  GNPA ratio higher for priority sector than non-priority sector  However, considering restructured accounts and write offs, asset quality worse for the non-priority sector Priority sector Non Priority sector
  • 29. Study Conclusions & Other Issues : Why high NPA and such poor state of Credit Management?
  • 30. Primitive Information Systems  Improvements in information systems were not coincident with increased size of asset portfolio, increasing complexities in credit management  Banks ability to manage the quality of their asset portfolio remained weak given  The lack of granular data on slippages, early indications of deterioration in asset quality, segment wise, trends, etc.  Banks failed in identifying / arresting the early pre-crisis trends – from 2005-06 - in asset quality deterioration
  • 31. GDP slowdown leading to increased NPAs! Recent decline in asset quality coincided with deceleration in GDP growth
  • 32. Higher NPAs only a result of GDP slowdown? Beginnings of deterioration in asset quality started ahead of slowdown in economic growth Growth rate of GNPAs started rising before the crisis even as the pace of slippages turned sharply positive in 2006-07
  • 33. Asset quality of PSBs – Economic downturn or sub-optimal credit management?  Recent increase in NPAs not reflected across all bank groups  Though economic downturn faced by all banks  Early threats to asset quality - swiftly and effectively managed by private sector and foreign banks  PSBs suffer from structural deficiencies related to the management and governance arrangements  Reflected in lacunae in credit management  Pre-dates the crisis, but not dealt with on time, unlike in the case of the FBs and NPBs
  • 34. Lax Credit Management  Deficiencies in credit management crept in during the pre-crisis “good years”  In general, banks with high credit growth in 2004-08 ended up with higher NPA growth in 2008-13  The appraisal process failed to differentiate between promoter’s debt and equity  Promoters equity contribution declined / leverage higher  Credit monitoring neglected was  Recovery efforts slowed  Legal infrastructure for recovery remained non-supportive  Restructuring became rampant PSB OPB NPB FB
  • 35. Increasing frauds – or are they business failures?     Increasing incidence of frauds, especially large value frauds in recent years Over 64 % of fraud cases are advances related – over 70% in case of large value frauds (over Rs. 50 crore) Poor appraisal and absence of equity has led to larger no. of advance related frauds especially through diversion Moral hazard associated with identifying business failures as frauds  Lacunae in credit appraisal not identified  Fixation of Staff accountability a casualty Advance Related Frauds (>Rs. 1cr)   2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 Amt Bank Amt No. No. Group (in cr.) (in cr.) Cumulative (end Mar13) Amt No. (in cr.) No. Amt (in cr.) PSBs 201 1820 228 2961 309 6078 1792 14577 OPB 20 289 14 63 12 49 149 767 NPB 18 234 12 75 24 67 363 1068 FB 3 33 19 83 4 16 456   277 Grand 242 Total 2376 273 3183 349 6212 2760 16690
  • 36. Credit appraisal suffered…(1)  Poor Credit appraisal at the time of sanctioning as also at the time of restruturing  Significant increase in indebtedness of large business groups   Sample of 10 large corporate groups - credit more than doubled between 2007 and 2013 even while overall debt rose 6 times Credit growth concentrated in segments with higher level of impairment  Lending elevated in several sectors where impairments were higher than average CAGR of credit 20092012 Impaired Assets ratio (March 2013) Iron and Steel 25 15 Infrastructure 33 16 Power 41 18 Telecom Aggregate banking sector 28 16 19 11 Sectors Source : Credit Suisse Research
  • 37. Credit appraisal suffered…(2)  Indian corporates - accessing international markets to raise capital  Risk from un-hedged exposures  Risk from increase in interest rates  Impact could spill-over to lenders  Project risks not taken due cognizance of  Contingency planning for large projects  Restructuring extended to large corporates that faced problems of over-leverage and inadequate profitability  Companies with dwindling repayment capacity to repay debt - raising more and more debt from banks  ability of corporates to service debt was falling  exposure of companies to interest rate risk was rising
  • 38. Conclusions …..  High credit growth in select sectors has led to decline in credit quality in subsequent periods  High incidence of advance related frauds are an outcome of deficient credit appraisal standards  Level of Leverage of corporate borrowers, credit growth, diversion of funds, sub standard assets and fraud cases are highly correlated. They are first order derivative of improper credit and recovery management
  • 39. Summing up…. (1)  Current NPA levels - not alarming though could pose concern if current trends persist All Banks Year PSBs Old Pvt. Sec. New Pvt. Sec Foreign Banks Banks Banks GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA GNPA NNPA Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Ratio Mar 94 19.07 13.71 21.11 15.44 6.93 3.88 - - 1.46 -0.65 Mar-95 15.31 10.46 17.12 11.98 7.35 4.12 2.21 0.93 1.62 -0.91 Mar-97 14.33 9.50 16.44 11.15 8.29 4.66 2.92 2.51 3.57 1.02 Mar-99 13.34 8.99 14.63 10.17 13.02 7.82 4.55 3.52 5.00 0.86 Mar-01 11.14 6.28 11.99 6.97 11.86 6.71 5.40 3.21 6.69 1.72 Mar-03 8.81 4.42 9.36 4.54 8.86 5.41 7.50 4.67 5.34 1.76 Mar-05 4.94 1.96 5.38 2.07 5.97 2.72 2.93 1.53 3.01 0.87
  • 40. Summing up…. (2)  Stress testing reveals resilience of banking system due to strong capital position June 2013 CRAR Core CRAR GNPA Ratio Losses as % of Capital Baseline 13.4 9.7 4.0 - NPA increases by 50% NPA increases by 100% 11.5 8.0 5.9 15.4 10.6 7.0 7.9 23.2 9.6 6.0 9.9 31.0 30% of restructured advances turn into NPAs (Sub-Standard) 12.1 8.6 5.7 10.4 30% of restructured advances written off (Loss) 11.2 7.6 5.7 18.2 NPA increases by 150%
  • 41. Summing up .… (3) Provision coverage ratios of Indian banks low by international standards – declining in recent times
  • 42. Stressed Assets Provision Coverage Ratio Provision Coverage Ratio presents a dismal picture when Restructured Standard Advances are also considered Mar 2009 Mar 2010 Mar 2011 Mar 2012 Mar 2013 38.47 29.61 34.29 30.00 27.71 OPBs 33.16 35.40 41.58 33.31 31.11 NPBs 38.91 42.64 63.25 55.52 53.73 FBs 51.58 57.73 81.75 83.44 74.04 All Banks 34.80 30.78 36.25 33.00 30.25 PSBs Stressed Assets Provision Coverage Ratio defined as {(Total Provisions (excl. Provision for std adv) + Tech W/Os) to (GNPAs + Rest Std Adv + Tech W/Os)}
  • 44. Key Messages …..(1)  Present level of stressed asset as an outcome is not a big problem but present processes, systems and structure of creation of stressed assets are a big problem.  Existing level of NPAs are manageable but if corrective actions to arrest the slide in NPA are not initiated, the stability of financial system will be at great risk.  Gross NPAs are not alarming but the quantum and growth of restructured assets is of great concern  Economic slowdown and global meltdown are not the primary reason for creation of stressed assets but the state of credit and recovery administration in the system involving banks, borrowers, policy makers, regulators and legal system have contributed significantly to the present state of affairs.
  • 45. Key Messages ….(2)  Credit quality has a high positive correlation with the prudential norms and regulations prescribed by RBI  Laxity, soft and flip-flop approach to regulatory and prudential norms have contributed significantly to creation of NPAs and stressed assets in the system  Level of Leverage of corporate borrowers, credit growth, diversion of funds, sub standard assets and fraud cases are highly correlated. They are first order derivative of improper credit and recovery management.  Less than 20% of NPAs are upgraded  Reduction of NPAs is less than slippages  About 50% reduction in NPA is through write-off
  • 46. Key Messages ….(3)  Banks following the process of recognizing NPAs quickly and more aggressively are having better control over NPAs.  Appraisal standards are lax for bigger loans both at the time of sanction as also restructuring while appraisal rules are very stringent for smaller borrowers  Restructuring and write off processes are highly biased towards bigger loans as compared to smaller loans.  Credit risk for small borrowers is lower than that for bigger borrowers  Credit risk in priority sector is less than in the non-priority sector  High pace of credit growth has resulted in lower credit quality in subsequent periods
  • 47. Measures …….(1)  Credit Appraisal needs to be strengthened with focus on:  Quantum of equity brought in by the promoters  Sources of Equity  Contingency Planning in respect of infrastructure projects  Improve appraisal and approval process for restructuring proposals  Benefits of restructuring to be also extended to smaller borrowers  CDR Mechanism grossly misutilised and needs a thorough overhaul  Need for an oversight structure for dealing with restructuring of large ticket advances  Independent body to oversee CDR mechanism
  • 48. Measures …..(2)  Restructuring and Technical Write-off as a prudential measure should be eased out by the regulator  Existing NPAs need careful examination for determining rehabilitation or recovery  Conduct viability study  Quick rehabilitation with support from both –the bank and the borrower  Those who put spoke needs to be sufficiently disincentivized  Bring new promoter if the existing promoter unable to bring new equity  Restructuring decision should be left to the bank Quick and determined action is the need of the hour !
  • 50. Recommendations and way ahead  Short run  Addressing the existing stock of impaired assets – NPAs and restructured  Time bound revival or recovery  Long run  Robust risk management  Improved information system  Facilitating granular analysis of trends in asset quality  Improved credit management  Credit appraisal and monitoring  Facilitative regulatory and legal infrastructure
  • 51. Short term: Review of NPAs / restructured advances  Assess viability of NPA and restructured accounts – on case-to-case basis  Pre-stipulated time-frame for review/ restructuring  Accounts found viable  Promoters to assume their share of losses - not resort to further borrowing for equity  If need be bring new promoters  Burden to be equally shared  Restructuring of small accounts - Reorient restructuring towards small customers – SMEs, priority sector  Accounts found to be un-viable  Put under time bound asset recovery  banks takeover of units where promoters’ equity is low  sale of assets to ARCs
  • 52. Improve credit risk management Enhanced Credit Appraisal  Group Leverage, Source/ structure of equity capital  Complex project structure (as in SPV)  External constraints – effective contingency planning  Keep a check on credit growth and linkage with equity Need for quicker decision making  Appraisal, sanction, disbursement - timely and fast  More compassion to smaller borrower and increased stringency for larger borrowers Strengthen Credit Monitoring  Comprehensive MIS viability assessment and Early Warning Systems to facilitate regular Enforce accountability  Accountability on Individuals and all levels of hierarchy  Accountability to encompass all aspects of credit management  Accountability for delayed decision making / non-action
  • 53. Improved information systems  Information systems management – the backbone of credit risk  Robust information systems needed  Facilitate more intensive data capturing  Integrated into decision making, capital planning, business strategies, and reviewing achievements.  Enable timely detection of problem accounts,  Flag early signs of delinquencies,  Facilitate timely information to management on these aspects  Coordinating mechanism across departments within a bank and across banks  MIS for capturing common exposure across banks
  • 54. Regulatory framework  Need to review the existing regulatory arrangements for asset classification and provisioning  Facilitative and practical regulation  Restructured accounts to be classified as NPA – aligning domestic norms with global best practices  The practice of technical write offs of NPAs to be dispensed with  Increased provisioning requirements in line with international norms and to ensure resilience of the banking system  Uniform approach to regulation – either principle or rule based  For stability in credit risk management practices 
  • 55. Reforming legal & institutional structures Corporate Debt Restructuring (CDR) mechanism    Remove existing bias towards large-ticket accounts Ensure viability and promoters’ stake upfront Independent oversight of large CDR account Debt Recovery Tribunals (DRTs) & other legal provisions  Need for vigorous follow up in the case of suit filed accounts  setting up of more DRTs and DRATs Asset Reconstruction Companies (ARCs)  Review and revitalise functioning of ARCs Credit Information Companies (CICs)  Expand use of CICs for credit management

Hinweis der Redaktion

  1. During 1996-2003, NPA ratios declined for PSBs and rose for other bank groups During 2003-06, NPA ratios declined for all bank groups During 2007-09, NPA ratios of NPBs and FBs increased; but declined thereafter After 2009, the ratio rose sharply for PSBs 2007-09 NPA ratios of PSBs remained largely unchanged while that of the new private sector banks and foreign banks increased sharply. Foreign banks have witnessed the highest spurt in NPA in 2009. after 2009, when NPAs rose significantly for PSBs while it declined for other bank groups. In 2013, all the bank groups registered an increase in gross NPA ratios, except the new private sector banks.
  2. Slippages - closer metric to assess credit management Slippages & net slippages started rising since 2006-07 Ratio of slippages and advances restructured and classified as standard during the year (fresh restructured advances) to standard advances at the beginning of the year, also remained high (except in the year 2011).
  3. Extent to which banks able to reduce NPAs through recovery efforts deteriorating evidenced by increasing ratio of slippages to recovery and upgradation and net slippage ratio
  4. These trends indicate that the current decline in asset quality cannot be simplistically attributed solely to the recent decline in the country’s macroeconomic performance. While the deceleration in GDP growth rate is undoubtedly one of the major factors affecting the asset quality of banks, there are other factors/causal relationships which will need to be explored further in order to fully understand the recent trends in asset quality.