Research project Trying to find the hidden patterns behind Long term Points – interesting / surprising / unexpected
How do companies set or predict prices. What would you do?
A guess could be based on a particular competitor, or a key supplier, or an average, but it is still at heart a guess
Trend lines can be added to what data you have, but often more than one line can be fitted to the same trend, and if you only have a few months of post patent generic prices, many trends could be fitted to the same data – each one a guess.
The price went up, as it was following a hidden pattern, not immediately obvious to the uninformed
Trend lines can be added to what data you have, but often more than one line can be fitted to the same trend, and if you only have a few months of post patent generic prices, many trends could be fitted to the same data – each one a guess.
Trend lines can be added to what data you have, but often more than one line can be fitted to the same trend, and if you only have a few months of post patent generic prices, many trends could be fitted to the same data – each one a guess.
But sometimes they don't
The range of decline curves possible is very wide
Information revolution Bill gates Email Design around the planet Ebay Lack of science in one area of pharma – pricing Aunt story
The range of decline curves possible is very wide
Each of the 100+ decline curves we looked at was based on a pattern
Each could be modelled
Each could be connected with the underlying factors
Even the rises in price due to availability and price could be predicted
Even the rises in price due to availability and price could be predicted
The range of decline curves possible is very wide
The range of decline curves possible is very wide
Patterns are complex but predictable Not as complicated as shares But pharmaceuticals is an island – doesn't pick up techniques from other industries easily Why has no one done it before – not enough pricing history Norton healthcare SPSS experience
So the method works Will get better as more examples are analysed Sugar traders / stocks and shares But bounces still an issue ….. But what about other markets
Nothing is new But pharma is still left with vulnerability in those companies that don’t take this on board No reason why techniques won’t work in other states
