1. Future Trends as a Strategic and Governance Risk
•Climate change seen as major risk
to future well-being in government,
military, private and third sector.
•Risk management is seen as a key
lever to understand what future
trends mean and to plan an
organisational response.
•Business as usual approaches
do not apply especially in terms of
energy, water, food security, flood
risk and population shifts.
•Technological advances are not
seen as providing the solution –
major adaptation in inevitable, in the
economy, environment and society.
•Existing models of governance
need to change to tackle future
trends – are current approaches
adequate?

2. Global Trends (1)
Globalisation = vulnerable economies and heightened
inequalities.
(Oil, Water, Land and Food) increased demand for scarce
resources, resource competition and conflict.
Technology alters interaction of communities, networks,
individuals and organisations and benefits health care for some
Powerful role of the individual on public attitudes, values,
expectations and behaviours enhanced by IT.
Higher expectations for quality of life, goods and services in
developed and developing world.
Secularism, materialism, capitalism dominant
Decline in civic values
Consumerist relationship between individual and state

3. Global Trends (2)
Ageing first world and youthful third world, a growing urban poor,
increased cultural complexity.
Generational conflict in the developed world, a rise in political
extremism, and retrenchment.
Migration caused by failing states, conflict, climate change,
poverty and poor governance (MoD 2007 230 m people by 2050)
Infectious disease limits growth in the developing world
High global risks of an influenza pandemic.
Obesity and diabetes time bomb in developed world.
Global terrorism and rising sympathy with extremist sentiments
Climate change alters infrastructure, settlements, migration, Economic, social
agriculture and health, economy, carbon economy. and environmental
impacts on
Wales?

4. Alternative ‘Adaptation’ Futures
known adaptation required to 2040s unknown adaptation required after 2040s
known mitigation required to 2040s unknown mitigation required after 2040s

5. Peak Oil
OIL AND GAS LIQUIDS
2004 Scenario
30 Supply and
'Business-As-Usual Demand'
Gap
25
20
Billion Barrels a year (Gb/a)
M.East
15
Other
10
5 Russia
Europe
US-48
0
1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Conventional Oil Unconventional Oil
US-48 Europe Russia Other M.East Heavy etc. Deepwater Polar NGL
Source: PostCarbon Institute (2008)

6. Carbon trajectories
200
s curve from 2012
180
160
Carbon emissions (MtC)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year from: Tyndall Centre

7. Carbon trajectories
200
s curve from 2012
180
160
Carbon emissions (MtC)
140
data from 2000 to 2006
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year from: Tyndall Centre

8. Carbon trajectories
200
s curve from 2012
180
160
Carbon emissions (MtC)
140
… emissions are likely to rise
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year from: Tyndall Centre

9. Carbon trajectories
200
s curve from 2012
….. requiring dramatic annual carbon
180
reductions between 2012-2032
160
Carbon emissions (MtC)
140 .....if 2°C rise is to be avoided
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
Year from: Tyndall Centre

10. Carbon trajectories
200
s curve from 2012
180
160 ~ 9% p.a.
reduction
Carbon emissions (MtC)
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050
from: Tyndall Centre
Year

11. Energy security and carbon reduction
Oil Demand and supply - demand for energy 53% higher in
2030 than in 2004 but Peak Oil analysts suggest a peak of
production in 2010’s then a terminal decline
Energy vulnerability - 2020, 50% oil will produced by countries
at risk of internal instability. By 2020, around 80% of UK fuels
are likely to come from overseas.
High and Volatile Energy Prices - international relations and
negotiations and risk of disruption – marginalise peripheral and
rural areas
Reliance on Nuclear and Renewables, including energy
crops, microgeneration and gas/coal and carbon capture and
storage.
Transport remains highly oil dependent and traffic grows (road
traffic is expected to increase by 31% between 2003 and 2025)
Carbon Reduction requires large scale shifts in the economy
and technology 3-9% annual carbon reduction targets to meet
Government 60% by 2050? To avoid 2 degrees C rise.
ENERGY DESCENT PLAN FOR EACH COMMUNITY IN WALES?

12. Adaptation Challenges for Local Government
• economic impact – changing global and local markets
• resource scarcity, localisation of supply chains?
• increased flood risks to rivers and coasts
• water resources – drought, supply and quality
• drainage and sewerage capacity
• land use, value and patterns of development
• capturing carbon through land management
• conservation designation and habitat connectivity
• changing agricultural practices and food security
• resilience of transport infrastructure - disruption
• primary, secondary and tertiary health impacts
• reliance on costly fossil fuels and peak oil
• climate change induced migration
WHAT ARE THE LOCAL IMPACTS AND ADAPTATION
RESPONSES?
GLOBAL IMPACTS ON OUR COMMUNITIES?

13. Food Security
Chatham House Food Supply Scenarios (2008)
Just a Blip? - strong supply response, weather favourable, oil
price falls, overproduction
Food Inflation? – high demand, high energy cost, high input
costs, inflation, recession
A New Era? – peak oil, climate change losses, restriction on
inputs, supply constraints, eco-technical approach
Food Crisis? – diseases, water shortages, geopolitical
disruption, high energy price, extreme weather, exhausted
stocks, and prices skyrocket. Governments control prices, civil
disturbance.
•resources are scarcer, demand is increasing, food prices soaring,
• stocks are low, serious shortages
•not just a blip – structural change occurring in food economy
•‘business as usual’ models will fail, or poor preparation for future
• long-term planning needs to start now
“JUST IN TIME” v A FOOD RESILIENCE PLAN FOR WALES?

14. What’s it got to do with Local Government?
an increasing emphasis on local arrangements to mitigate the effects of
these trends in the interests of socio-economic stability, a heightened
pre-occupation with risk by governments and society, and a need to
manage these risks at all levels of government. (MoD 2007)
•Local Government Act 2000 - Duty of well-being
•Democratic mandate – moral obligation to lead and help manage issues
•Community leadership role , partnerships and sectoral links
•requires “bold local political ambition transcending short term pressures” LGA 2007
•Proposed Assembly Local Government Measure “providing local wellbeing,
sustainability and fairness are as valid as improving quantified service outputs or
efficiency”