New grid e grid systems to meet development challenges

1. New Grid and Smart
Grid S t
G id Systems
to Meet
Development
Challenges
Professor Daniel M. Kammen
Chief Technical Specialist for Renewable Energy and Energy Efficiency
p gy gy y
The World Bank
July, 2011
Rome, Italy
Also: Founding Director of the
g
Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley
http://rael.berkeley.edu

2. WORLD BANK LENDING ENERGY PORTFOLIO
Medupi
RSA
2010: Portfolio is
2010 P tf li i 65% non-fossil f l
f il fuel
2011: New Energy Strategy (in review)

3. CONTENTS
• Building up expanded grid / smart grid capacity
• Short‐term impacts of variable power generation
• Variable generation technologies and planning
• Information management for the new / smart grid
• Transmission Planning and Renewable Energy
2

4. PLANNING AFTER DEREGULATION
• Planning was forgotten by many agencies for years…
• Indicative planning used to check if the market (independent decisions by
investors) is delivering the required investment
• Planning as the basis to determine investments in non‐competitive areas:
transmission and distribution
• Other applications: determine capacity payments or long‐term marginal
cost reference price signals used in different forms of private sector
contracting
• Rebirth of planning with the introduction of new market designs to ensure
supply adequacy based on long‐term organized markets: Competition for
the market and not in the market (e.g. Brazil, Colombia)
• Most important: systems assessments and integration key to managing
costs and carbon

5. TODAY’S GRID
Top‐down control
Demand drives generation >230kV
Day/night and seasonal demand
D / i ht d ld d
predictable to better than 3%
Conservative design and operation to
accommodate failures
d t f il
>69kV
ISO managed
Utility managed
Operates well with one
Operates well with one‐
Operates well with one‐
way flow and static
conditions

6. THE FUTURE GRID HAS NEW NEEDS
Variable wind and solar generation
Wind variable at minutes timescale >230kV
Solar variable at seconds timescale
S l i bl d i l
Solid state inverters reduce
inertia in system
Complicated demand
l dd d
Potential for charging 1 million
plug‐in electric vehicles (PEVs) to >69kV
overload the distribution system
overload the distribution system
Demand response (DR)
Generation behind the meter
Significant generation and storage at the
f d h
distribution level
There will exist a very
Th ill i t
complex dynamic interaction +-
between load and generation +- +- +- +- +-
with unknown results
with unknown results Solar PV & PEVs Storage

7. TEAM DEVELOPS NEW TECHNIQUES TO SCALE AND ENHANCE ELECTRIC GRID
PLANNING AND OPERATIONS MODELS
Increasing grid complexity and dynamics
(e.g., variable renewable, 100X data
rates, 100X nodes). Existing planning codes
use single-processor environments
Research focus on algorithms and approaches
for scaling selected codes and methods
Task 1: Develop high resolution
models of grid, including Solar thermal
distribution system
Task 2: Use dynamic techniques to model
wind, solar, demand response
variability
Task 3
T k 3: Scale t h ti
S l stochastic
optimization algorithms
to exploit parallel hardware
Task 4: Implement on HPC platforms
Solar PV and wind
Use of HPC is novel within electric industry and could
revolutionize grid design and operation
revolutionize grid design and operation
6

8. UNDERSTANDING PLANNING: SCREENING CURVE ANALYSIS
• Traditional generation planning has similarities with short term economic
dispatch operations: definite the least‐cost generation schedule and new
additions program for the next 5‐20 years.
• The main difference is that in generation planning a decision has to be
made with regard to the new generation plants that should be added to
the system to meet expected long‐run demand at least‐cost
the system to meet expected long run demand at least cost ~ 6 % annual
demand
MW growht
20,000
6,000
MW
6,000
09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 29
16..
4,500 Long-term demand projection (20 years)
Generation Planning
MW Jan/09 July/09 Jan/10 July/10
4,500
Yearly load-curve (1.5 years)
Operations planning
Daily load curve (24 hrs)
Short-term dispatch

9. LOCAL SCALE:
CONCEPT OF OPEN ARCHITECTURE SMART HOME
8

10. FIRST STEP TO NATIONAL GRID ‐ TRESAMIGAS INTERCONNECT SUPERSTATION
CONNECTS THE 3 MAJOR GRIDS OF U.S.
Site information hyperlink
9

11. LARGE SCALE:
DIRECT CURRENT INTERCONNECT – RESOLVES AC PHASING ISSUES AND ENABLES RE
FROM SOUTHWEST TO EASTERN LOAD CENTERS
Site information hyperlink
10

12. EMERGING APPROACHES TO TRANSMISSION DEVELOPMENT
• Renewable energy zones rapid change is possible
(planning/economics)
RE‐zones approved in 2008
Source: National Renewable Energy Laboratory
& US DOE
11

13. Increased Renewables with Diversified Sources
I dR bl ith Di ifi d S
‐ with benefit of long distance and intelligent grid
Average
Load
NATURAL GAS
SOLAR/PV
Base
Load
WIND
COAL
HYDRO + OTHER
NUCLEAR
12

14. UNDERSTANDING PLANNING: SIMPLIFIED SCREENING CURVE ANALYSIS
• Long term generation planning and smart systems integration
Long run planning to
answer: What, when, and
how to add new
MW
generation capacity to
20,000
20 000 meet future demand ?
6,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 …. 2027 2028 2029

15. SUSTAINABLE ENERGY PLANS IN CHINA / SMART SYSTEMS PLANNING
Renewable
6%
CCP Scenario
(2,336 GW)
16 Hydro
16%
14 Energy
gy Nuclear
Efficiency 4% Coal
60%
Oil & gas
CO2 emissions (Gton)
12 14%
Low‐
carbon
10 technology
8 ENV Scenario
(1,975 GW)
6
e
Renewa Coal, 30
4 ble, 23 %
%
2
Hydro, Oil &
23% Gas, 16
0 %
2009 2012 2015 2018 2021 2024 2027 2030
Nuclear,
8%
World Bank Group

16. CHALLENGES OF GRID ENVIRONMENT IN CHINA
Renewable
Energy Security
Energy Security 6%
BAU Scenario
Coal, oil & gas, nuclear (2,336 GW) Hydro
16%
Grid integration, reliability and stability Nuclear
Load demand to double by 2030 4% Coal
60%
Oil & gas
Urbanization 14%
Increasing density of load demand
Increasing density of load demand
Increasing demand for high quality of
power supply (work and life‐style)
Increasing environmental sensitivity
Increasing environmental sensitivity SD Scenario
Green Growth and Climate Change (1,975 GW) Renewab
le, 23%
Coal, 30%
• Shift to less energy‐intensive and
higher value‐added economy Hydro, 23 Oil &
%
• Costs of local and global emissions Gas, 16%
Nuclear,
8%
World Bank Group

17. SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT (SD) SCENARIO IS OUTLOOK
INCREASINGLY AFFORDABLE AS THE ECONOMY CONTINUES
TO GROW, BUT THE INCREMENTAL COST IS LARGE INITIALLY
Investments Costs as a share of GDP
(3 year moving average; Capex Investment )
2,0%
SD
1,5%
1,0%
BAU
0,5%
0,0%
2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
World Bank Group

18. OUTLOOK
STRONG AND SMART GRIDS WILL PLAY A KEY ROLE IN
ENABLING SAFE, SECURE AND EFFICIENT TRANSITION
TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE ENERGY DEVELOPMENT
Accelerating energy efficiency (EE) through
Smart Metering, Time-based Tariff Systems/ Dynamic Pricing
Net Metering and Distributed Power Generation
DSM,
DSM EE trade and services
Scaling-up renewable energy (RE) through
DSP (e.g. phasor measurements) and wide-area stability control
Flexible
Fl ibl AC/DC transmission system (l d fl
i i (load flow control)
l)
Energy storage, network management and RE trading
Integration of New/Advanced Technologies
g g
• Off-shore wind, Concentrated Solar Power and advanced solar
PV
• Electric vehicles
• “Zero emission” buildings
World Bank Group

19. TOWARDS SUSTAINABLE DEVELOPMENT
Pricing reforms are key for smart energy
grid
Energy Renewable New Technologies
CO2 Abatemen cost
Efficiency Energy
A nt
STRONG AND SMART GRID
•Regulations and •Feed-in Tariff or RE • Support for R&D
financial incentives Portfolio Standard • Financing
(e.g. tariffs) • Tax on fossil fuel incremental cost
• Financing • Cap and trade CO2 • Technology
mechanisms transfer and pilot
• Institutional reforms projects
World Bank Group

20. LOAD AREAS AND TRANSMISSION
Load areas are parts of the grid: 50 Load
• Within which there is significant Areas
existing distribution
• Between which there is limited
existing transmission
• Congested transmission paths are
retained
• Defined predominantly by
existing borders
• Control areas, load serving
entities, country and state
borders, urban areas,
mountain ranges, etc.
Transmission in SWITCH:
• Is built between major substations of adjacent load
areas along existing lines when possible
• Minimizes ecological impact and citing difficulties
• Costs $1000/MW‐km to build
• Obeys thermal limits
• Does not yet capture differences between AC and DC

21. EXISTING GRID AREAS
• Existing Generators
Existing Generators:
• Are given the option to run or
be mothballed in each
investment period
• Mixed integer linear program!
• Have plant‐primemover
Have plant primemover
specific heat rates
• Are retired after their
operational lifetime
• Use historical monthly flows
used to constrain daily
used to constrain daily Hydroelectric 67 GW
Nuclear 9 GW DC Line
hydroelectric generation 500 kV
Coal 38 GW
• Existing hydroelectric is must‐ Geothermal 2 GW
run Gas 82 GW
G 82 GW
Wind 10 GW
20
Source: Ventyx EV Energy Map

22. Technologies SWITCH Can Currently Build
Compressed Air
Energy Storage
Energy Storage
21

23. 22

24. RPS Enabled and No Carbon Tax
Dispatch in 2026‐2029
Dispatch in 2026‐2029
• No new policy case
• Represents lowest cost system operation under above assumptions
R t l t t t ti d b ti
• Coal increases to from 33% to 47% of generation
• Emissions increase to 197% of 1990 Levels
Emissions increase to 197% of 1990 Levels
• Solar makes a small appearance at 2% of generation
• Biomass solid, biogas and geothermal are installed to meet RPS targets
A 225
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec RPS Enabled
200
$0/tCO2
175
tion (GW)
150
Solar
125 Wind
Hydroelectric
Generat
100
Gas
75
Geothermal
50 Biomass Solid
25
Biogas
Coal
0
16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 Nuclear
16 20 0 4 8 12 Hour of Day (PST) Load
23

25. RPS Enabled and No Carbon Tax
Generation and Transmission in 2026‐2029
and Transmission in 2026‐2029
• Cheap coal in 2026-2029
Wyoming is shipped
W i i hi d RPS E bl d
Enabled
west $0/tCO2
• Wind in the Rocky
Mountains is
M i i
consumed locally Average
• Solar in the Transmission
Flow (GW)
generated and used < 0.5
in the Desert 0.5 – 2
2–5
Southwest >5
• Biomass is consumed Average
locally on the coast Generation
• Hydro is shipped 5 GW
south to California Solar
Wind
• California has highest Geothermal
Biomass Solid
RPS target of 33% Biogas
• Most diverse Hydroelectric
Gas
generation Coal
portfolio Nuclear 24

26. Cost of Conserved Carbon in 2026‐2029
800 100
RPS reduces emissions by 23%
90
700
Cost of Power per MWh
p
With RPS and 80
CO2 Emissio (MtCO2/yr)
Without RPS
600
70
7)
Cos ($2007
500
CO2 Emissions Cost of Conserved Carbon 60
With RPS and per tCO2 With RPS and
ons
Without RPS Without RPS
st
400 50
40
300
1990 CO2 Emissions
30
200
20
100
10
0 0
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
CCC reduction aided Carbon Cost ($2007/tCO2) 1990 levels reached
by small carbon cost at higher carbon costs
25

27. Generation Mix is Highly Sensitive to
Nuclear Capital Cost
Nuclear Capital Cost
• Optimal grid changes drastically as a function of nuclear capital
cost at carbon taxes of > $50/tCO2
b f $ /
• Increasing nuclear capital cost by $1/W tips the power mix far
away from new nuclear
away from new nuclear
• Solar, wind, and natural gas substitute
$4/W Nuclear, RPS Enabled, 2026-2029
Nuclear Enabled 2026 2029 $5/W Nuclear RPS Enabled, 2026-2029
Nuclear, Enabled 2026 2029
26

28. Dispatch in2026‐2029 @ $60/tCO2
225
B Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
200
Nov Dec $4/W Nuclear
RPS Enabled
175
$60/tCO2
GW)
150
Solar
neration (G
125 Wind
100 Hydroelectric
Gas
75
Geothermal
Gen
50 Biomass Solid
25 Biogas
Coal
0
16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0
Nuclear
16 20 0 4 8 12 Hour of Day (PST) Load
225
C Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
200
Nov Dec $5/W Nuclear
RPS Enabled
175
$60/tCO2
Generatio (GW)
150
Solar
125 Wind
on
100 Hydroelectric
Gas
75
Geothermal
50 Biomass Solid
25
Biogas
Coal
0 Nuclear
16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0 16 8 0
16 20 0 4 8 12 Hour of Day (PST) Load
27

29. Geographic Build‐Out of Low Carbon Scenarios
• @ $4/W nuclear capital cost
• New nuclear dominates eastern generation and consumption
• Also uses existing transmission to send power west
• @ $5/W nuclear capital cost
@ $5/W nuclear capital cost
• Solar and gas increase in the Desert Southwest
• 9% and 30% of WECC‐wide generation, respectively
• In both, wind power is deployed in the Rocky Mountains
In both wind power is deployed in the Rocky Mountains
$4/W Nuclear $5/W Nuclear
$60/tCO2 $60/tCO2
RPS Enabled RPS Enabled
2026-2029 2026-2029
Average
Generation
5 GW
Solar
Wind
Average
Geothermal
Transmission Biomass Solid
Flow (GW)
( ) Biogas
< 0.5 Hydroelectric
0.5 – 2 Gas
2–5 Coal
>5 Nuclear 28

30. VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
• The cost of short‐term impacts..
Source: IEA Task 25 Design and Operation of Power Systems with
Large Amounts of Power
29

31. VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
• The cost of short‐term impacts..
Source: IEA Task 25 Design and Operation of Power Systems with
Large Amounts of Power
30

32. VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
• Emerging evidence
Wind integration costs are manageable
For levels below 10% of energy penetration costs are
small
For levels 10% to 15% more impact on operative reserves,
and other services. Detailed studies recommended
d th i D t il d t di d d
For levels 15% to 30% more flexibility will be required,
large interconnected areas, wind diversity. Studies
large interconnected areas wind diversity Studies
highly recommended
31

33. Multiple windows fo energy
e or $
trade/dispatch: rea time mark
al kets,
day ahe markets
ead s…
High interconn
hly nected systtem:
conn
nect to mult
tiple market
ts
Flexible ge
eneration: Good
G
ramping caapab: GT, CCGT
C
Generatio with stora
on age:
hydro, pum
mped hydroo
D
Diversify/agg
gregate win
nd
VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
po
ower: acros different
ss
ar
reas
Other, most expen nsive,
storage solutions
e
Solutions
32
Flexibility is the key to accommodate variable sources
• Flexibility is the key to accommodate variable sources

34. VARIABLE RENEWABLE ENERGY TECHNOLOGIES AND PLANNING
Critical conditions: how transmission flexibility has helped Denmark ?
• During high wind conditions: excess traded
to NORDEL or Germany
•During rapid wind decrease, large balancing
area permit imports from Germany
• Grid stability is improved by interconnections
Source Energinet.dk
Denmark s
Denmark’s TSO
Wind power generation 22.22 %
of total consumption in 2007
33
33

35. SOLAR RESOURCE MANAGEMENT
85% Dow Spike in <5 min
8 wn
(a) Ten second resolution Global Horizontal Incidence cloudy and clear day
(b) Ten second resolution power production cloudy and clear day
[ 25 MW field, Florida w/tracking]
Observed i
Ob d impacts of T
t f Transient Cl d O Utilit scale PV Fields
i t Clouds On Utility l Fi ld
Kankiewicz, Sengupta& Moon www.ases.org/papers/112.pdf
34

36. 10% OF CARS EV IN THE US ….
When to Charge EVs?
When to Charge EVs?
Charging at night could increase need for Base Load
Daytime charging can be done with Solar
‐ Optimal charging requires information feedback and pricing tools
Optimal charging requires information feedback and pricing tools
EV Load
Average To Scale
Load
NATURAL GAS
SOLAR/PV
Base
Load
WIND
COAL
HYDRO + OTHER
NUCLEAR
35

37. TRANSMISSION: BARRIER TO RE GENERATION IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES
Mexico: Wind potential in Oaxaca 10 GW
First 1,895 MW of privately‐developed wind power require a new framework to
expand the publicly‐owned transmission system with 271 km of double circuit 400 Kv
lines plus 2,125 MVA substation are needed
*Source: CRE (2009) and CFE (2009)
• Average wind velocity above 15
m/s
/
• Average plant load factor > 50%
• Location: remote, far from
f f
consumption centers and the
transmission system
• Smart system critical to use
current and then future grid
y
effectively
36

38. TRANSMISSION: BARRIER TO RE GENERATION IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES
Mexico: Open for Private Wind Power Producers: Reducing and Sharing
Mexico: Open for Private Wind Power Producers: Reducing and Sharing
Transmission Costs
Wind power operating and committed
Source: CFE
37

39. TRANSMISSION: BARRIER TO RE GENERATION IN SEVERAL COUNTRIES
Mexico: Open Season process flow
Mexico: Open Season process flow
38

40. CONCLUSIONS / DIRCTIONS
New Planning Tools Are Needed For Local Management and
Long‐term regional planning
• Developing a new generation of tools
• Co‐evolution of generation technology, energy efficiency and demand‐side
planning
• Low‐carbon options at least cost require coordination and integration
b l d d
• A secure energy, low‐cost set of products to assist all nations
39