1. The Current Status and Outlook for the U.S. Economy, Housing and Mortgage Markets Specially Prepared for: Mortgage Bankers Association of Metropolitan Washington Presented by: LaVaughn M. Henry, Ph.D. Director, U.S. Economic Analysis The PMI Group, Inc. November 14, 2008
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3. The PMI U.S. Market Risk Index 2nd Quarter 2008 Results and Analysis
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7. How Well Does the U.S. Market Risk Index Work? Risk Rank 5 Risk Rank 4 Risk Rank 3 Risk Rank 2 Risk Rank 1
8. Geographic Distribution of House Price Risk 2nd Quarter 2008 – 2 nd Qtr 2010 What is the U.S. Market Risk Index Saying about Future Price Movements?
9. Why are Risk Scores Changing? Reason #1: Foreclosures are Rising
10. Foreclosure Rates, All Mortgage Loans 2 nd Quarter 2008 Source: Mortgage Bankers Association, National Delinquency Survey
19. … with significant weakness in the Midwest and South. 12-month change in Payroll Employment September 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics -5.00% to -1.00% -1.00% to 0.00% 0.00% to 1.00% 1.00% to 10.00%
20. Unemployment is Rising Broadly Across the Nation. Unemployment Rates September 2008 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics 2.0% to 4.0% 4.0% to 5.0% 5.0% to 6.0% 6.0% to 9.0%
21. Demeaned Unemployment Rates are also Rising Significantly in Selected MSAs Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics