Dr Jennifer Hunt, U.S Department of Labor's Chief Economist reports on the Labor market situation for February 2014.

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The Labor Market Situation
in February
―
March 10, 2014
―
Dr. Jennifer Hunt
Chief Economist
U.S. Department of Labor
Office of the Chief Economist

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Payroll survey: stronger than expected
1-month change, in thousands
• February 2014 162
• January 2014 145
• December 2013 86
12-month change, in thousands
• January 2013 to 2014: 2,190
• Average: 183

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But the longer trend still shows steady growth

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Two employment surveys:
CES & Payroll-concept-adjusted CPS

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Employment growth by super-sector this month

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Employment growth by super-sector over the year

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Unemployment ticked back up…
January 2014 6.7%
January 2014 6.6%
December 2013 6.7%
February 2013: 7.7%

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…employment rate was flat
February 2014: 58.8%
January 2014: 58.8%
December 2013: 58.6%
February 2013: 58.6%

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LFP has been essentially flat since October
February 2014: 63.0%
January 2014: 63.0%
December 2013: 62.8%
February 2013: 63.5%

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Not in Labor Force
-94,000
Not in Labor Force
84,856,000
Employed
+42,000
Unemployed
+223,000
More unemployed got jobs than dropped out
Employed
139,093,000
Unemployed
5,895,000
2,145,000
2,524,000
other 12,000 other 281,000
other 96,000

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Long-term unemployment rate ticked back up,
but remains highest since 1983
February 2014: 2.5%
January 2014: 2.3%
December 2013: 2.5%
February 2013: 3.0%

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Summary of month
 Back to the pre-shutdown pattern of steady employment growth
– Keeps up with population growth
– Doesn’t do anything to employment rate
 Rise in long-term unemployed
– Note: in recovery, expect short-term unemployed to get jobs first
– Those short term that don’t, become long-term
– But sign of change not consistent across duration, think random fluctuation

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Let’s talk about the weather!

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Let’s talk about the weather!

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Sectors we have been following + weather
 Construction
– Dec: -22,000; Jan: +48,000; Feb: +15,000
– All adjustment happened in December? (Earlier start to seasonal layoffs)
 Found most of the accountants
– Dec: -32,000; Jan: +5000; Feb: +16,000
 Motion pictures continued volatile
 Retail
– Dec: +63,000; Jan: -13,000; Feb: -4000
– Weather? Bounce-back from unusually high December?
 Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather; retail unclear
 For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs

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Weather and trend conclusions
 Construction (employment) has shrugged off weather
 Retail unclear, possibly underlying slowing
 For February, CEA calculates weather cost 23,000 jobs
 My guess: back to the steady but insufficient growth of pre-shutdown
– Especially given downward revisions to GDP 4th Quarter

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Thank you!

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Employment growth by super-sector peak to trough

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Construction employment shrugged off weather
(Perhaps seasonal layoffs simply occurred earlier than usual)
1-month change, in thousands
• February 2014 15
• January 2014 50
• December 2013 -20
12-month change, in thousands
• January 2013 to 2014: 152
• Average: 13