3 gaikindo

OCTOBER 2006

INDONESIAN MARKET- AUTOMOBILE INDUSTRY DEVELOPED STATUS
AUTOMOTIVE TECHNOLOGY REQUIREMENTS
ON FUEL & LUBRICATION

CHAIRMAN OF GAIKINDO
HEAD OF INDUSTRIAL POLICY OFGAIKINDO
Bambang Trisulo
Budi Prasetyo Susilo

The 1st Indonesia Fuel & Lube Conference
GabunganJakarta, JW THROUGH BETEER FUEL & LUBECANT
REDUCE COST
Industri Kendaraan November 2006 Indonesia
Marriot Hotel, 21-22 Bermotor
21-
Association of Indonesian Automotive Industries

OCTOBER 2006

PRESENTATION OUTLINE
I. BRIEF INTRODUCTION OF GAIKINDO

II. INFLUENCE GOVERNMENT POLICY OUTLINE
ON AUTOMOBILE MARKET AND INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT

III. DOMESTIC MARKET PROGRESS

IV. FUEL & LUBE CHALLENGE REQUIREMENTS ON AUTOMOBILE MOBILITY.

V. SUMMARY

I-1 Brief Introduction of GAIKINDO
I-1 Brief Introduction of GAIKINDO

Non-Profit Independent Organization Representing
The Interest of Indonesia Automobile Manufacturers.

Members of GAIKINDO :
39 Companies
28 Brands (11 Brands which has Industry in Indonesia)

Source : Secretariat GAIKINDO-2005

I-2. VISION – MISSION --STRATEGY
I-2. VISION – MISSION STRATEGY

VISION
To become a world-class, professional and independent automotive
Organization, which plays an active role as the government’s equal partner
in Developing the industry to be adept at competing in the international
market.

MISSION
To transform Indonesia’s automotive industry and boost its competitive
edge in the global market.

STRATEGY
To organize and support international events to seek global attention and
promote trade and investment opportunities in the country. To encourage,
promote and protect the interests of the automotive industry in Indonesia. To
act a means of communication among its members for the strengthening
and promotion of their common interests. To collect, compile and collate
information on issues affecting the interests of The automotive industry in
general and members in particular and to later distribute such information in
the form of reports or statistics to members.

I-3. GAIKINDO’s Activities
I-3. GAIKINDO’s Activities

To reach its vision and mission and meet its commitments, GAIKINDO has
Launched several programs, including :

Publishing a bi-monthly bulletin on the development of the country’s
automotive industry
Conducting studies on various aspects relating to vehicles and the sector
Representing members in discussions with the government on tax and
customs concern
Promoting joint studies and the exchange of information with
counterparts in others countries, particularly regarding raw materials,
components, and international commerce
Cooperating with the government to issue proper standards to be used in
the industry
Participating in international automotive industry conferences and
organization such as the ASEAN Automotive Federation
Sponsoring important campaigns, such as those promoting the reduction
of fuel consumption, traffic safety and environmental issues
Striving to position the annual GAIKINDO Auto Expo in the same level of
the world leading motor shows, like the Tokyo Motor Show, Frankfurt
Motor Show And Bangkok Motor Show

I-4. List of GAIKINDO Members Companies
I-4. List of GAIKINDO Members Companies

NO. BRAND NAME ADDRESS
1 TOYOTA PT.TOYOTA MOTOR MFG. INDONESIA JL.YOS.SUDARSO,SUNTER I ,JAKARTA UTARA
TOYOTA
2 PT.TOYOTA ASTRA MOTOR JL.YOS.SUDARSO,SUNTER II,JAKARTA UTARA
(DISTRIBUTOR)
3 SUZUKI PT.INDOMOBIL SUZUKI INTERNATIONAL WISMA INDOMOBIL,JL.MT.HARYONO KAV.8,JAKARTA

4 MITSUBISHI PT.KRAMA YUDHA TIGA BERLIAN MOTORS JL.JEND.A.YANI,PROYEK PULOMAS,JAKARTA TIMUR

5 HONDA PT.HONDA PROSPECT MOTOR JL.YOS.SUDARSO,SUNTER I ,JAKARTA UTARA

6 DAIHATSU PT.ASTRA DAIHATSU MOTOR JL.GAYA MOTOR III/5,SUNTER II JAKARTA UTARA

7 ISUZU PT.PANTJA MOTOR JL.GAYA MOTOR III/5,SUNTER II JAKARTA UTARA

8 NISSAN PT.NISSAN MOTOR INDONESIA JL. M.T. HARYONO KAV. 10 LT. 3, JAKARTA
JL. SUNTER GARDEN BLOK D 8 NO. 1
9 KIA PT KIA MOBIL INDONESIA SUNTER AGUNG PODOMORO, JAKARTA UTARA 14350

JL.SULTAN ISKANDAR MUDA NO.81,
10 HYUNDAI PT.HYUNDAI INDONESIA MOTOR ARTERI PONDOK INDAH, JAKARTA SELATAN

KAWASAN INDUSTRI KOTA BUKIT INDAH
11 HINO PT.HINO MOTORS MFG. INDONESIA
JL. DAMAR BLOK D 1 NO. 1, PURWAKARTA, JA - BAR
HINO
12 PT. HINO MOTORS SALES INDONESIA WISMA INDOMOBIL LANTAI 9
(DISTRIBUTOR)
13 FORD PT.FORD MOTOR INDONESIA WISMA INDOMOBIL LT.10,JL.MT.HARYONO KAV.8, JKT.

14 CHEVROLET PT.GENERAL MOTORS INDONESIA JL.RAYA BEKASI KM.27,PONDOK UNGU, BEKASI
MERCEDES BENZ DEUTSCHE BANK BLDG. 18TH FLOOR
15 CHRYSLER, DODGE PT.DAIMLERCHRYSLER INDONESIA JL. IMAM BONJOL NO. 80, JAKARTA

MERCEDES BENZ PT. DAIMLERCHRYSLER DISTRIBUTION DEUTSCHE BANK BUILDING 18TH FLOOR
CHRYSLER, DODGE INDONESIA JL.IMAM BONJOL NO.80,JAKARTA PUSAT 10310
16
JEEP

JL.DANAU SUNTER SELATAN,BLOK O-5,SUNTER,JAKARTA
17 UD NISSAN DIESEL PT.ASTRA NISSAN DIESEL INDONESIA


I-4. List of GAIKINDO Members Companies (continue)

18 BMW PT.TJAHJA SAKTI MOTOR CORP. JL.GAYA MOTOR SELATAN I ,SUNTER II JAKRTA UTARA
BMW WISMA GKBI LANTAI 21
19 (DISTRIBUTOR) PT. BMW INDONESIA JL. JEND. SUDIRMAN NO. 28, JAKARTA SELATAN

WISMA INDOMOBIL LT.4 , JL. MT. HARYONO KAV.8
20 CHERRY QQ PT.UNICOR PRIMA MOTOR JAKARTA

21 PEUGEOT PT.ASTRA FRANCE MOTOR JL.GAYA MOTOR SELATAN I ,SUNTER II, JAKRTA UTARA

22 VOLVO PT.CENTRAL SOLE AGENCY WISMA INDOMOBIL,JL.MT.HARYONO KAV.8,JAKARTA
JL. RAYA PLUIT SELATAN NO. 8 A
23 VOLKSWAGEN PT.CAR & CARS INDONESIA JAKARTA UTARA 14440

AUDI CENTER
24 AUDI, VW CARAVELLE PT.GARUDA MATARAM MOTOR Jl. M.T. HARYONO KAV. 11, JAKARTA

25 TIMOR PT.TIMOR PUTRA NASIONAL MENARA SAIDAH , LT. 3&4, JL.MT.HARYONO KAV.29-30

26 LANDROVER PT.JAVA MOTORS JL.KRAMAT RAYA NO.17,JAKARTA PUSAT
JAGUAR,BENTLEY JL.LETJEN S.. PARMAN KAV. NO 4, SLIPI
27 DAIMLER PT.GRANDAUTO DINAMIKA JAKARTA 11480
ROLLS ROYCE
28 RENAULT PT AUTO EURO INDONESIA JL. M.T. HARYONO KAV. 10 , JAKARTA TIMUR 13330
WISMA STANDART CHARTERED BANK , LT. 16
29 PROTON PT. PROTON EDAR INDONESIA JL. JEND. SUDIRMAN KAV. 33A, JAKARTA 10220

JL. SULTAN ISKANDAR MUDA NO. 55, BLOK Q KAV. NO.
30 SUBARU PT. TC. SUBARU
JAKARTA 12240
31 MAZDA PT. MAZDA MOTOR INDONESIA WISMA INDOMOBIL LANTAI. 10
JL. MT. HARYONO KAV.8



32 MITSUBISHI PT.KRAMA YUDHA RATU MOTORS JL.RAYA BEKASI KM.21,JAKARTA TIMUR

33 MITSUBISHI PT.TRIJAYA UNION JL.RAYA SERANG,KM. 9, TANGERANG
PT. MITSUBISHI KRAMA YUDHA MOTOR
34 MITSUBISHI JL.RAYA BEKASI,KM.21,JAKARTA TIMUR
& MANUFACTURING
35 HINO PT.NATIONAL ASSEMBLERS JL.RAYA BEKASI KM.18,PULO GADUNG,JAKARTA TIMUR

36 MERCEDES BENZ PT.DAIMLERCHRYSLER INDONESIA D.S WANAHERANG,GUNUNG PUTRI,CITEREUP,BOGOR
DAIHATSU, PEUGEOT
37 B M W, ISUZU PT.GAYA MOTOR JL.GAYA MOTOR RAYA 1-3,SUNTER II,JAKARTA UTARA

KAWASAN INDUSTRI KOTA BUKIT INDAH
38 NISAN PT.NISSAN MOTOR INDONESIA BLOK A III, LOT 1-14, PURWAKARTA 41181, JAWA BARAT

JL.KALIABANG NO.1,PONDOK UNGU,MEDAN SATRIA,
39 ISUZU PT. MESIN ISUZU INDONESIA
KEC.BEKASI BARAT,BEKASI/PO.BOX 130,BEKASI 17013


II.1. Indonesian Automobile Market & Government Policy Development
II.1. Indonesian Automobile Market & Government Policy Development
KEPPRES 20/98 586/PJ/01
KEP: 460/KMK/03/01
SK 168/M/SK/9/79 PAKJUN’96 19/MPP/KEP/98 PP.60/01
201/KPB/VII/92 PP 36 20/MPP/KEP/98 172/MPP/05/01
107/M/SK/VII/92 KEPRES 42 19/KMK/01/98
SK 231/M/SK/11/78 SK 349/M/SK/8/80 PP 43 TH ‘03
PP.145/00 411/MPP/
SK 111/M/SK/10/90 INPRES NO 2. ‘96 49/MPP/KEP/00 Kep/06/03
SK 371/M/SK/9/83 569/KMK.04/00 458/MPP/
SK 307/M/SK/8/76 97/KMK/05/00 Kep/07/03
PAKMEI ‘95

SK 117/M/SK/4/86 PAKJUN ‘93 PP. 59 756/MPP/
PAKJUN ‘99 Kep/11/02
Unit Sales
(x 1,000)

800
750
Increasing Fuel
Price [‘05] 700
700 General
Election
620 670
& President
['99] 570
600 620 570
534
National Car 570
Program 500
500 ['96] 500
483 500
435
Tight Money 379
387
400
Policy (TMP) 354 435
Rp Devaluation ['91] 350
27,5% ['83] 301 299
Rp 322 332
300 310
Devaluation 274 310
261 350
31,0% ['86]
Forecast year 2006
200 208 178
160 211
172 Optimistic 500 Units (6% Down)
189
170
152 152 162 158 94 Moderate 435 Units (19% Down)
100 144
103 New Banking
103 Tight Money Regulation Economic Pessimistic 350 Units (34% Down)
88 Policy (TMP) Crisis ['98]
72 ['89] 58 (85% Down)
- ['87]

2002

2010
2004

2006

2008
2000
1998
1976

1978

1980

1982

1984

1986

1988

1990

1992

1994

1996

II-2. Indonesian Automobile Industry Policy Outline
II-2. Indonesian Automobile Industry Policy Outline

Incentive National Liberali-
Program Deletion Program
Program Car Prog. zation

Year 1976 1979 1983 1987 1990 1993 1995 1996 1999
RegulationSK S K SK SK SK June M ay February SK
307 168 371 34 111 Package P ackage P ackage 27
P oted C m
rom om ercial V ehicles C m
om ercial V hc. Passenger
Product &P ass.C <1500cC >1500cc
ars ars

S tructure C DM w
K inus ith C DM wK inus ith Localizationof N local
o
of The m andatatory m andatatory >40% >60% m >60%
in. content
Industry local components local components w 3years regulation
ithin
andextendedw ith andC UB
m com
ain ponents import
perm itted
Orientation Import Export O nB
w rand,
Substitution Engineering
Capability,
Export

Source : Budi Pranoto - AOP

II-3. Current Automotive Government Policy in Indonesia
II-3. Current Automotive Government Policy in Indonesia

Automotive industry with high efficiency and strong
Automotive industry with high efficiency and strong
GOAL
GOAL global competitiveness
global competitiveness

To focus the development of component industries
To focus the development of component industries

To continue and enhance the development of small
To continue and enhance the development of small
STRATEGIES
STRATEGIES
commercial car industries (less than 55tons)
commercial car industries (less than tons)
as well as motorcycle industries
as well as motorcycle industries

To develop mini-sedan industries with cylinder capacity
To develop mini-sedan industries with cylinder capacity
up to 1.500 cc as aaway and means to enter
up to 1.500 cc as way and means to enter
the international market of auto parts
the international market of auto parts

Source : IATT-MOI

II-4. Automobile Business Chain Flow Process
II-4. Automobile Business Chain Flow Process

CKD

Other's (Export +
Domestic)
T
r
a
Steel Qlty.
n Welding Painting Assembly VLD
Center s
Insp
i
ST EEL t
COIL
Out
Sourcing

CKD

Other's Domestic Export

Source : BTS

IIII-5.MPV Industrial Structure Development
-5. MPV Industrial Structure Development

Source : BTS-EKR

IIII-6.CV Industrial Structure Development
-6. CV Industrial Structure Development

& HOUSING

Source : BTS-EKR

III-1. Domestic Market 1997 ––2005
III-1. Domestic Market 1997 2005
Increasing Fuel
Price [‘05]

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CATEGORY
386,691 58,303 93,843 300,964 299,634 317,780 354,355 483,168 533,922
cc ≤ 1.5 lt 15,758 2,526 1,449 19,624 20,222 14,309 26,117 27,482 25,375
Passenger < 10 1.5 lt < cc ≤ 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 57,274 9,377 9,564 27,011 14,826 12,338 12,737 12,999 10,131
(Sedan) cc > 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 183 39 28 242 235 157 158 83 166
Passenger ≤ 10 cc ≤ 1.5 lt 75,847 9,088 13,804 43,112 75,898 89,427 95,766 217,250 244,855
4x2 1.5 lt < cc ≤ 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 171,274 28,477 53,914 170,731 137,965 144,709 156,006 145,444 176,174
(Van) cc > 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 2,209 - - - - - - -
Passenger ≤ 10 cc ≤ 1.5 lt - - - - - - - -
4x4 1.5 lt < cc ≤ 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 159 98 1,215 3,286 655 2,411 4,692 6,473 10,809
(Jeep / Van 4x4) cc > 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 4,840 1,576 426 352 1,910 1,207 203 200 676
Passenger > 10 (Bus) 4,186 258 411 1,157 1,512 1,715 1,212 1,223 1,029
Trucks / Pick-Up 54,961 6,864 13,032 35,449 46,411 51,507 57,464 72,014 64,707

1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005
CATEGORY
100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0
cc ≤ 1.5 lt 4.1 4.3 1.5 6.5 6.7 4.5 7.4 5.7 4.8
Passenger < 10 1.5 lt < cc ≤ 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 14.8 16.1 10.2 9.0 4.9 3.9 3.6 2.7 1.9
(Sedan) cc > 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Passenger ≤ 10 cc ≤ 1.5 lt 19.6 15.6 14.7 14.3 25.3 28.1 27.0 45.0 45.9
4x2 1.5 lt < cc ≤ 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 44.3 48.8 57.5 56.7 46.0 45.5 44.0 30.1 33.0
(Van) cc > 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 0.6 - - - - - - - -
Passenger ≤ 10 cc ≤ 1.5 lt - - - - - - - - -
4x4 1.5 lt < cc ≤ 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.3 2.0
(Jeep / Van 4x4) cc > 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 lt (D) 1.3 2.7 0.5 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.1
Passenger > 10 (Bus) 1.1 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.2
Trucks / Pick-Up 14.2 11.8 13.9 11.8 15.5 16.2 16.2 14.9 12.1

Source : GAIKINDO Secretariat

III-2. Domestic Market Vehicle Sales in Indonesia by Category Jan ––Sep 2006
III-2. Domestic Market Vehicle Sales in Indonesia by Category Jan Sep 2006

SALES
MONTH SALES
CATEGORY
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP 2006
1. PASSENGER CARS
CC < 1.5 lt (G/D) 904 952 903 768 1.050 902 818 968 750 8.015
SEDAN TYPE 1.5 lt < CC < 3.0 lt (G) / 2.5lt (D) 307 399 752 811 489 502 536 544 920 5.260
CC > 3.0 lt (G) / 2.5 (D) 10 27 7 3 1 4 12 4 17 85
CC < 1.5 lt (G/D) 13.008 11.426 12.322 9.480 8.871 8.774 8.044 11.605 14.797 98.327
1.5 lt < CC < 2.5 lt (G/D) 6.957 5.622 3.399 4.232 4.878 4.471 4.614 5.067 6.013 45.253
MPV 4X2 TYPE
2.5 lt < CC < 3.0 lt (G) 910 930 506 647 565 779 719 685 551 6.292
CC > 3.0 lt (G) / 2.5 (D) 22 9 22 36 74 111 80 122 155 631
CC < 1.5 lt - - - - - - - - - -
SUV 4X4 TYPE 1.5 lt < CC < 3.0 lt (G) / 2.5 (D) 41 114 79 74 83 117 119 93 101 821
CC > 3.0 lt (G) / 2.5 (D) 11 28 8 4 10 3 5 7 20 96
SUB TOTAL 22.170 19.507 17.998 16.055 16.021 15.663 14.947 19.095 23.324 164.780
2. COMMERCIAL VEHICLES
GVW 5 - 10 Ton (G/D) 61 61 5 89 85 71 121 148 104 745
BUS GVW 10 - 24 Ton (G/D) 63 39 46 26 40 62 86 69 49 480
GVW > 24 Ton (G/D) - - - - - - - - - -
GVW <5 Ton (G/D) 2.271 3.193 4.182 3.237 3.695 4.493 3.917 4.682 5.582 35.252
GVW 5 - 10 Ton (G/D) 1.572 2.338 3.397 2.415 2.300 3.225 1.894 2.985 3.948 24.074
PICK UP / TRUCK
GVW 10 - 24 Ton (G/D) 209 231 283 205 237 255 195 271 309 2.195
GVW > 24 Ton (G/D) 93 243 388 228 226 249 134 215 260 2.036
GVW <5 Ton (G/D) 434 347 538 321 473 549 583 520 449 4.214
DOUBLE CABIN 4X2 / 4X4
For all CC
SUB TOTAL 4.703 6.452 8.839 6.521 7.056 8.904 6.930 8.890 10.701 68.996

DOMESTIC SALES 26.873 25.959 26.837 22.576 23.077 24.567 21.877 27.985 34.025 233.776
SALES CUM. TOTAL 26.873 52.832 79.669 102.245 125.322 149.889 171.766 199.751 233.776

EXPORTS
CBU (UNIT) 2.077 3.131 1.750 1.561 2.583 2.073 1.534 2.545 2.820 20.074
CKD (SET) 6.838 8.016 12.373 10.624 11.246 10.741 10.906 8.966 7.761 87.471
COMPONENTS (PIECES) 17.611 21.182 35.556 21.396 24.274 26.506 25.822 25.296 18.738 216.381

Note :
Not included CBU Imported Vehicles by General Importers Sorce : BTR-DINO

III-3. Market Prediction Oct-Nov-Dec 2006
III-3. Market Prediction Oct-Nov-Dec 2006

CATEGORY 2006 2007
PASSENGER TYPE JAN~SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL SEM I SEM II TOTAL
SEDAN 13,360 620 1,100 950 16,080 8,500 10,500 19,000

MPV 4x 2 150,503 14,500 23,500 21500 210,078 107,100 132,300 239,400

SUV 4x4 917 40 100 70 1,127 680 840 1,520

SUB TOTAL 164,780 15,160 24,700 22,520 227,285 116,280 143,640 259,920

COMMERCIAL TYPE
BUS 1,225 100 200 150 1,678 850 1,050 1,900

PICK UP/ TRUCK 67,771 5,680 9,000 8700 86,938 51,000 63,000 114,000

DOUBLE CABIN 4,214 60 100 100 4,524 1,870 2,310 4,180

SUB TOTAL 68,996 5,840 9,300 8,950 93,140 53,720 66,360 120,080

GRAND TOTAL 233,776 21,000 34,000 31,470 320,425 170,000 210,000 380,000

Export CBU (unit) 20.074 3.000 3.000 3.000 29.254 20.000 25.000 45.000
Export CKD (set) 87.471 10.000 10.000 10.000 117.471 65.000 75.000 140.000
Export Comp. (pcs) 216.381 30.000 30.000 30.000 306.381 180.000 220.000 400.000

BTR-DINO

III-4. Forecast Assumption
III-4. Forecast Assumption
Domestic Market 2007
Domestic Market 2007

Positive Negative
• Macro Economic Trend •Natural Disaster
• Stability • Security
• EPA, FTA • Cabinet Reshuffle
• New Brand, Product Introduction & Investment • Labor Mater
• No domestic fuel (subsidy) price increase • World Conflict
• Luxury Tax (PPnBM) case • International Oil price increase

• 400.000 units as a Target (Stretching)
• 380.000 units as a Normal Forecast (Gaikindo)
• 360.000 units as a Prudence Forecast (Player)

BTR-DINO

III-5. Domestic Market Prediction Oct-Nov-Dec and Year 2007
III-5. Domestic Market Prediction Oct-Nov-Dec and Year 2007

CATEGORY 2006 2007
PASSENGER TYPE JAN~SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL SEM I SEM II TOTAL
SEDAN 13,360 620 1,100 950 16,080 8,750 10,500 19,250

MPV 4x 2 150,503 14,500 23,500 21500 210,078 110,250 130,300 240,550

SUV 4x4 917 40 100 70 1,127 700 840 1,540

SUB TOTAL 164,780 15,160 24,700 22,520 227,285 119,700 141,640 261,340

COMMERCIAL TYPE
BUS 1,225 100 200 150 1,678 875 1,050 1,925

PICK UP/ TRUCK 67,771 5,680 9,000 8700 86,938 52,500 60,000 112,500

DOUBLE CABIN 4,214 60 100 100 4,524 1,925 2,310 4,235

SUB TOTAL 68,996 5,840 9,300 8,950 93,140 55,300 63,360 118,660

GRAND TOTAL 233,776 21,000 34,000 31,470 320,425 175,000 205,000 380,000

Export CBU (unit) 20.074 3.000 3.000 3.000 29.254 20.000 25.000 45.000
Export CKD (set) 87.471 10.000 10.000 10.000 117.471 65.000 75.000 140.000
Export Comp. (pcs) 216.381 30.000 30.000 30.000 306.381 180.000 220.000 400.000

BTR-DINO

III-6. Domestic Automobile Vehicle Sales in Indonesia
III-6. Domestic Automobile Vehicle Sales in Indonesia
Forecast by Category Jan ––Dec 2007
Forecast by Category Jan Dec 2007
MONTH
CATEGORY
JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC TOTAL

1 PASSENGER CARS

SEDAN TYPE 1,250 1,250 1,500 1,500 1,750 1,500 1,500 1,500 2,000 1,500 2,000 1,750 19,000

MPV 4x2 TYPE 15,750 15,750 18,900 18,900 22,050 18,900 18,900 18,900 25,200 18,900 25,200 22,050 239,400

SUV 4x4 TYPE 100 100 120 120 140 120 120 120 160 120 160 140 1,520

SUB TOTAL 17,100 17,100 20,520 20,520 23,940 20,520 20,520 20,520 27,360 20,520 27,360 23,940 259,920

2 COMMERCIAL CARS

BUS 125 125 150 150 175 150 150 150 200 150 200 175 1,900

PICK UP/ TRUCK 7,500 7,500 9,000 9,000 10,500 9,000 9,000 9,000 12,000 9,000 12,000 10,500 114,000

DOUBLE CABIN 275 275 330 330 385 330 330 330 440 330 440 385 4,180

SUB TOTAL 7,900 7,900 9,480 9,480 11,060 9,480 9,480 9,480 12,640 9,480 12,640 11,060 120,080

DOMESTIC SALES 25,000 25,000 30,000 30,000 35,000 30,000 30,000 30,000 40,000 30,000 40,000 35,000

CUMMULATIVE 25,000 50,000 80,000 110,000 145,000 175,000 205,000 235,000 275,000 305,000 345,000 380,000

Note :
Not included CBU Imported Vehicles by General Importers BTR-DINO

III-7. Macro Economy Indicator Summary
III-7. Macro Economy Indicator Summary

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
Indicators
(*) (**/ *) (*) (*) (*)

GDP growth (%) 5.2~5.6 6.3 6.0~6.5 6.5~6.7 6.5~7.0
5.8~6.2

Inflation (%) 7-8 6.5 5-6 5-6 4-5
6~7

SBI 3 months (%) 10.5-11.5 8.5 7-8 7-8 6-7
8~9

IDR/USD 9300 9300 9000 9000 8800
9200

Oil Price ($) 60 63 60 50 50
65
Budget deficit
1-1.5 0 0.5 0.3 0.1
(% of GDP) 0.7~0.9

Economic Outlook :
* M. Chatib Basri – LPPM UI
** APBN Rate 2007

BTR-DINO

TABLE Tableof Import Duty (BM) & Luxury Tax (PPn-BM)
III-8. Table of Import Duty (BM) LUXURY TAX (PPn-BM)
III-8. OF IMPORT DUTY (BM) & & Luxury Tax (PPn.BM)
2004-2006
UNIT KOMPONEN
KATEGGORI KETERANGAN PPn.BM
CBU CKD IKD Assy/BD IKD
Pass Car w/seat < 10 cc < 1.5 lt 65(60) 35 15
*1)
15 10
*4)
30
(Sedan) 1.5 lt < cc< 3.0 lt(P) / 2.5lt(D) 70(60) 40 15 40
cc > 3.0 lt ( P) / 2.5 ( D ) 80(60) 50 15 75
*2) *5)
Pass Car w/seat < 10 cc < 1.5 lt 45 25 15 15 10 10
*2) *5)
4x2 1.5 lt < cc< 2.5 lt 45 25 15 15 10 20
*2) *5)
(Van) 2.5 lt < cc< 3.0 lt (P) 45 25 15 15 10 40
*2) *5)
cc > 3.0 lt ( P) / 2.5 ( D ) 45 25 15 15 10 75
4x4 cc < 1.5 lt 45 25 15 30
(Jeep / Van 4x4) 1.5 lt < cc< 3.0 lt(P) / 2.5(D) 45 25 15 40
cc > 3.0 lt (P) / 2.5 (D) 45 25 15 75
Pass. Car w/seat > 10 5 ton < GVW< 24 ton ( P/D ) 40 25 5
*3)
15 10
*3)
(Bus) GVW > 24 ton ( P/D ) 5(10) 5 5 15 10
*2) *5)
GVW < 5 ton ( P/D ) 45 25 15 15 10 0
Trucks / Pick-Up GVW 5 - 24 ton ( P/D ) 40 25 5
*3)
15 10
*4)
0
*3)
GVW > 24 ton ( P/D ) 10 5 5 0
Double Cab. 4x4 / 4x2 GVW < 5 ton ( P/D )
45 25 15
*2)
15 10
*5)
20
(Passenger > 3) double cabin, all cc
cc < 250 35 25 15 0
Motor Cycle 250 < cc < 500 60 25 15 60
cc > 500 60 25 15 75
Notes :
* Unit (CKD, CBU, IKD) 2004 based on Kep.Menteri Keuangan RI Blank Material = 5% *3) Exluding Body & Chassis, Engine
No. : 465/KMK.01/2003 (20 October 2003) *1) Exluding Engine *4) For Engine only
* PPnBM year 2004 based on PP No.43/2003 (31 July 2003) *2) Exluding Body & Chassis, Engine, *5) For Engine, Transmission, Drive Axle
* P = Petrol, D = Diesel Transmission, Drive Axle * Assy / BD (Breakdown)

Source : GAIKINDO Secretariat

III-10. Correction Domestic Market Total Sales and Future Trend Growth
III-10. Correction Domestic Market Total Sales and Future Trend Growth 1 Million Club
(Deperind)

x 1,000 unit 800
800
750 750
680
700
620 630
600
600 570
534 540
530
520
483
500 470
470
379 387 400 440
400 354 380
332 330
322 318
301 299 360
320
300 261 310
211 End Year 2006 Sale Projection in Indonesia Market

200 170
Optimistic 534 -> 330 Units (6% ->38%Down)
Moderate 435->320 Units (19% ->40.9%Down)
94 Pessimistic 350->310 Units (34% -> 42.0%Down)
100 58

0

2007

2008

2009

2010
1991

1998

2006
1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005
Note : year 1991 – 2005 actual domestic sales
year 2006 – 2009 projection BTR-DINO

IV-1. Market Challenge on Automobile Mobility for Fuel and Lube Requirements
IV-1. Market Challenge on Automobile Mobility for Fuel and Lube Requirements
FIVE FACTORS REQUETED MARKET CHALLENGE ON FUEL AND LUBRICANTION RELATED ON AUTOMOBILE MOBILITY

LOW EMISSION
LOW EMMITED LOW OIL UP BURNING
CO,HC,NOx, PM, CO2
PM LOW OIL DOWN BURNING

SAFELY DUMPING ON MAX SPEED
SUITABLE BOUNCING O/T ACCELARATION

SAFELY IN DRIVE COMFORT HIGH REPONSE DRIVE ABILITY
SOFT DUMPING

HIGH TEMP - SHEAR - LOW FRICTION
WATER RESISTANCE H/D CHARACTERISTIC

LONG LIVE INTERVAL CHANGE LOW FRICTION
IN LITRE/KM H/D CHARACTERISTIC
LOW FUEL-OIL CONSUMPTION
NON LEADED LOW SULFUR
NON METAL OCTANE BOOSTER LOW OIL UP BURNING
LOW OIL DOWN BURNING

Source : BPS

IV-2. Evacuated Combustion Product through E/X ––Leakage Gas Causing Adverse Effect
IV-2. Evacuated Combustion Product through E/X Leakage Gas Causing Adverse Effect
MECHANISM ON EVACATED COMBUSTION PRODUCT THROUGH E/X SYSTEM – LEAKAGE GAS CAUSING ADVERSE EFFECT

FUEL LUBE AIR
SOURCE SOURCE SOURCE

COMPLETE INCOMPLETE SULFUR NITROGEN
SCAVENGER OIL UP OIL UP BLOW BY
COMBUSTION COMBUSTION CONTENT + OXYGEN

DEPOSIT SULFUR HALOGEN
WATER NOx
PRECURSORS ACID ACID

SOOT

CARBON WEAR Air
RUST Pollution
VARNISH
SLUDGE

Source : BPS

IV-3. Avoided Problem on Vehicle as Fuel Requirements
IV-3. Avoided Problem on Vehicle as Fuel Requirements
IV.3.1.METALLIC OCTANE BOOSTER EFFECT GASOLINE ENGINE

Effects of Metal (Mn) on Ex. Emissions
0.12 0.20
NMOG - g/mi

0.10 Reference LDV 100K Std

NOx - g/mi
0.15
0.08
0.06 0.10
0.04 Clear Clear
0.05
0.02 MMT MMT
0.00 0.00
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Miles Miles
1.60 25
1.40 Clear
24
CO - g/mi

1.20 MMT
1.00
Mpg
23
0.80
0.60 Clear 22
0.40 MMT 21
0.20
0.00 20
0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000 0 20000 40000 60000 80000 100000
Miles Miles
Source : Alliance of Automobile Manufactures (2002)


Market Problem caused by Metals in Gasoline
(Manganese)
(Manganese)

Catalyst from the US Catalyst from Canada
(mileage : 80,000km) (mileage : 78,400km)

Particulate deposit is Oxides of Carbon Red deposit is Oxides of Mn
Source : JAMA


Effects of Metal (Ferrocene) on Insulator Resistance Perforemance of Spark Plug

Lowering insulator resistance was observed after 32Hrs engine test
when the fuel contained Ferrocene was used, as comparing with the
reference plug using no additized gasoline after 300 Hrs test

Source : WWFC Back ground data


Effects of Metal (Mn) on Spark Plug

25000 mile 25000 mile
with MMT 1/32 g/USG without MMT

Spark plug fouling caused by Mn deposits was observed as using fuel contained MMT.
Source : JAMA


(Ferrocene)

Red deposit is Oxides of Fe

Source : OEM data

IV.4.1. HIGH SULFUR, WATER & PARTICULATE CONTENT DIESEL ENGINE
FOR DIESEL COMMON RAIL SYSTEM

Common Rail Fuel Injection System
SULFUR
EDU
ECU
Injecto
drive
circuit
Electric line max. 500ppm.
r From ECU
CPU Main circuit
injection
injection
Fuel return
buffer Pilo
t
circuit

Fuel
pressure Common
Relief valve
Fuel WATER
sensor rail injector CONTENT
accelerator position max. 200ppm.
Intake pressure
Pressure Fuel
Water temp.
control tank
Engine speed
Cylinder signal valve
From ECU Main relay PARTICULATE
Fuel return Fuel supply Pump SENDIMENT
Switch signals
max. 10ppmw.
High Pressure Fuel Injection (180MPa)

Source : JAMA

EFECT ON NOZZLE FUEL SPRAY

Fuel Spray Change caused by Injection Hole Clogging in case of High both
Fuel Spray Change caused by Injection Hole Clogging in case of High both
Sulfur and Particulate-Sediment
Sulfur and Particulate-Sediment

Bottom view

Normal
Spray

clogging
Injection hole Injection
Foreign material Hole
Clogging

Source : JAMA

EFFECT ON INJECTION PUMP

Influence on Pump caused by Water
Content more than 200 ppm.

Water Invasion
Lower Abnormal wear Plunger
Lubricity Seizure (Seizure / Abnormal wear / Breakage)
on sliding portion
Rust Strength Plunger Spring
occurrence
of Pump decline (Breakage)
parts

Metal Bearing
(Seizure / Abnormal wear)

Thrust Washer

Feed Pump

Suction Valve Seat
(Abnormal wear)

Delivery Valve Seat
Source : JAMA (Abnormal wear) Source : BTS-EKR

EFECT ON INJECTOR

Influence on Injector caused by
Particulate more than 10 ppm .

Contamination Fuel by Particulate
Seizure of Valve
sliding sticking
surface
Piston Command
sticking

Needle Nozzle
sticking
Fluid Valve Seat
grinding poor seal

Orifice
change flow rate
Injection hole
change flow rate

Nozzle Seat
poor oil tight

Clogging Injection hole
Source : JAMA poor fuel spray

IV.5.1. Alkalinity, Fatty acids, Glycerine. Market Problem

Ford presentation in World Fuels Conference, Sydney @Oct. 27, 2003

IV.5.2. Carbonic Acid Salt on Bio Diesel (Market Problem)

(Bio diesel)
Adhesive material
(Carbonic Acid Salt)
Valve
Filter

(Parts of Fuel Injection Pump)
Bio fuels produce adhesive deposit because of low oxidation stability
poor driveability by sticking moving parts in pump and injector
Source : JAMA

IV.5.3. Rust Problem Find Out on Fuel Tank after Tested with BIO DIESEL

- Fuel Tank Tests -

Test Fuel: Commercial diesel fuel blended the FAME meets EN14214
by 5vol%

Fuel Tank Lower Fuel Tank Upper

Source : JAMA

IV.5.4. Problem find out on The Test Result with Bio Diesel Fuel

Source : JAMA

IV.6.1 Problem Should be Avoided as Methanol Blending Component on Gasoline
IV.6.1 Problem Should be Avoided as Methanol Blending Component on Gasoline

Test Fuels : Methanol 3v% blending Gasoline
Test Vehicles : LDV & LDT (Carb. & EFi), Number of Vehicles = 22 vehicles
Mileage : Fleet test on road (33,800 ~ 50,000) KM
Source from JARI = Japan Automobile Research Institute. Conformity test was sponsored by METI (1980 ~ 1987)

Items Results

Driveability Ambient Some drivers felt poor driveability

Hot Rough idle was observed on 5 vehicles in 22 test vehicles)
Cold startability Some drivers felt poor startability
Exhaust emissions Same level to normal gasoline
Fuel economy Worsen by 2 ~ 5% in volume base
Engine durability Engine lubricant deterioration -> wear of crank journal
Parts in fuel system Corrosion in metal parts, Level gage failure etc.

Fuel Hose : same as gasoline (no problem was observed)
Fuel tank : corrosions were observed
Fuel Filter : same as gasoline (no problem was observed)
Fuel level gage : problems on sensor were observed
Injector : deposits were observed
Pressure regulator : cracks in diaphragm were observed
Pulsation dumper : cracks in diaphragm were observed
Engine wear : higher level of metals caused by wear in engine oil

IV.6.2 Problem Find Out the Effect on Vehicle is caused by Ethanol Blended on Gasoline

● For vehicles that has already been released in the market, the effects of ethanol must
be verified.
● A period of time would be required for the developing and manufacturing of vehicle.

Characteristic of
Ethanol Blended Gasoline Subjects Conformation Items

Increase of Vapor Pressure Effect for Drivability
Increase of Evaporative Emission
Increase of VOC(volatile organic
compound) → Photochemical Smog
Characteristic by Oxygen Change of Exhaust Gas Components
Production of Peroxide and Aldehyde
Decrease of Calorific Value Change of Fuel Economy

High Water Absorbent/ Metal Corrosion in Fuel System
Low Oxidation Stability Wet Corrosion / Dry Corrosion )
(Production of Peroxide) Deterioration of Materials
Hydrolysis of Rubber and Resin
Source : JAMA

IV.6.3. Problem Find Out the Effect on Vehicle is caused by Ethanol Blended on Gasoline

Dry Corrosions
Effects of Ethanol on Metals
Immersion test results
Test condition F ingle-material(Scratched in liquid), Water content minimum(Virgin), Immersion in liquid
S

Material F1050
A
Befor After Base(E0) E1 E3 E5 E7 E10

Material F6061
A Complete dissolution
Before After Base(E0) E1 E3 E5 E7 E10

Material FDC12
A
Before After Base(E0) E1 E3 E5 E7 E10

Source : SAE 2005-01-3710

IV.6.4. Problem Find Out the Effect on Vehicle is caused by Ethanol Blended on Gasoline

Effects of Ethanol on Elastomer

70 deg.C x 760 Hr
20
FKM
Volume Change, %

15 E10
H-NBR

10 FKM

5 E0
H-NBR
0
0 200 400 600 800
Duration, Hr

METI FAME Conformity Test Report

IV.7.1. Problem Should be Avoided on I/C Engine as Lube Requirements
IV.7.1. Problem Should be Avoided on I/C Engine as Lube Requirements

PROPER PROPER
API SAE
GRADE VISCOSITY

800 oC

DEPOSITE PISTON
BUILD UP STUCK SLUDGE

VARNIS
EMULSION
ON
PISTON
SKIRT
EXCESSIVE BLOWBY
WEAR GAS OIL DOWN FLOW OIL BURN OUT
FROM I/V FLOW FROM E/V

EXCESSIVE
WEAR

EXCESSIVE
WEAR
FILTER
CLOGING
SCUFF, HEAVY
FRETTLING
CONTACT

ACID
ALKALINITY
PARTICULATE OIL CRANK CASE
CONTAMINATION Source : BPS

IV.7.2. Problem Should be Avoided on T/M-S/T and D/T Engine as Lube Requirements
IV.7.2. Problem Should be Avoided on T/M-S/T and D/T Engine as Lube Requirements

GEAR USED ON TRANSMISSION (T/M)
MECHANISM

GEAR USED ON DIFFERENTIAL (D/T)
MECHANISM

STRIGHT CUT GEAR – CYLINDER CUT GEAR
HUMMING
NOISE
GEAR USED ON STEERING (S/T)
MECHANISM SCORRING
FAILURE
HYPOID GEAR
ON
SURFACE
GEAR

PITTING
FAILURE
ON
SURFACE
GEAR
BEVEL GEAR
WORM WHEEL AND PINION GEAR

SPIRAL GEAR

RACK AND PINION GEAR Source : BPS

IV.7.3.1. Current Situation Lubrication Requirements by Brand

BRAND PELUMAS API/ILSAC SAE VOLUME (L) NORMAL USE (KM) SEVERE USE (KM)

ENGINE OIL SL 10W-30 3.0 10.000 8.000
TOYOTA
T/M OIL -AT ATF T-IV - 8.0 80.000 64.000
KIJANG
T/M OIL -MT GL-4 80W-90 6.0 40.000 32.000
INOVA (G)
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 80W-90 3.0 40.000 32.000
ENGINE OIL CE 10W-40 5.0 10.000 8.000
TOYOTA
T/M OIL -AT ATF T-IV - 8.0 80.000 64.000
KIJANG
T/M OIL -MT GL-4 80W-90 6.0 40.000 32.000
INOVA (D)
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 80W-90 3.0 40.000 32.000
ENGINE OIL SJ 10W-30 3.0 10.000 8.000
TOYOTA
T/M OIL -AT ATF T-IV - 8.0 40.000 34.000
AVANSA
T/M OIL -MT GL-4 75W-90 6.0 40.000 32.000
(G)
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 80W-90 3.0 40.000 32.000

ENGINE OIL SL 10W-30 3.0 10.000 8.000

TOYOTA T/M OIL -AT ATF T-IV - 8.0 80.000 64.000
DYNA (D) T/M OIL -MT GL-5 90 6.0 40.000 32.000
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 140 3.0 40.000 32.000

Source : OEM



ENGINE OIL SC 10W-30 3.0 5.000 3.000
MITSUBISHI
T/M OIL -AT - - - - -
COLT T120
T/M OIL -MT GL-4 90 6.0 20.000 15.000
(G)
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 90 3.0 20.000 15.000
ENGINE OIL CC 20W-50 5.9 5.000 3.000
MITSUBISHI
T/M OIL -AT - - - - -
SL
T/M OIL -MT GL-4 90 6.0 20.000 15.000
(D)
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-4 90 3.0 20.000 15.000
ENGINE OIL CC/CD 40 4.0 4.000 3.000
MITSUBISHI
T/M OIL -AT - - - - -
FE
T/M OIL -MT GL-4 90 4.0 10.000 8.000
(D)
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 140 2.7/4.5 10.000 8.000

ENGINE OIL CC/CD 40 3.0 5.000 3.000
MITSUBISHI
FUSO T/M OIL -AT - - - - -
(D) T/M OIL -MT GL-4 90 8/9.5/16/7.5/7 20.000 15.000
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 140 6.0/22/10 20.000 15.000

Source : OEM



ENGINE OIL SG 20W-50 2.3 5000 3.000

DAIHATSU T/M OIL -AT - - - - -
XENIA (G) T/M OIL -MT GL-4 75W-90 1.2 10.000 8.000
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 90 1.6 10.000 8.000
ENGINE OIL CE 10W-40 3.5 5.000 3.000
DAIHATSU
T/M OIL -AT - - - - -
TARUNA
T/M OIL -MT GL-4 90 1.7 10.000 8.000
(G)
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 90 1.55 10.000 8.000
ENGINE OIL SJ 20W-50 3.7 5.000 3.000
DAIHATSU
ZEBRA T/M OIL -AT - - - - -
(G) T/M OIL -MT GL-4 90 1.6 10.000 8.000
DIFF. OIL -MT GL-5 90 1.2 10.000 8.000

Source : OEM

V.1. Relation Government ––OEM Automobile Industry & Oil and Gas Industry
V.1. Relation Government OEM Automobile Industry & Oil and Gas Industry

Role of Government
POLICY FUEL FOSIL & LUBE
ALTERNATIVE FORMULATED
REGULATORY PRODUCT
STANDARD
MONITORING

AUTOMOTIVE OIL & GAS
SUPPLY PRODUK AS INDUSTRY
INDUSTRY OEM REQUIREMENTS
OEM PRODUCT FORMULATION
REQUIREMENT SAFELY, LOW FUEL INPUT
CONSUMPTION, LOW
EMISSION AND
COMFORT

WARRANTY 2TH -> 3TH

NGO ORGANDA
CLAIM ? CLAIM ?
MEMBER
SCHOOL,
ASOSIASI
UNIVERSITY
Government END USER PELAKU BISNIS

Source : BPS

V. 2. Summary
V. 2. Summary
• 400.000 units as a Target (Stretching)
1. Market 2007 Growth
1. Market 2007 Growth • 380.000 units as a Normal Forecast (Gaikindo)
with forecast assumption
with forecast assumption • 360.000 units as a Prudence Forecast (Player)

Positive Negative
• Macro Economic Trend • Natural Disaster
• Stability • Security
• EPA, FTA • Cabinet Reshuffle
• New Brand, Product Introduction & Investment • Labor Mater
• No domestic fuel (subsidy) price increase • World Conflict
• Luxury Tax (PPnBM) case • International Oil price increase
2. GAIKINDO is committed to realize EURO2 Emission Regulation starts in January
2005 New model and in January 2007 for Current model, the Adopting ASEAN as
a common Fuel Specification for Indonesian Fuel Specification of EURO-2
considering the following important points :
GASOLINE SPECIFICATION DIESEL SPECIFICATION
1. Unleaded Gasoline, SULFUR contents max. 500 ppm.
2. No Metallic Octane Booster, Water contents max. 200 mg/Kg.
3. SULFUR Contents max. 500 ppm. Particulates max. 10 mg/l.
4. RON min. 91 Cetane Number min. 50

3. Bio Methanol is avoided, Ethanol (ETBE)&FAME concentration are max 3% and 5% v/v
4. Low Oil Consumption, Long Oil Change Interval, comply OEM req. is recommended.
5. Good FQMS, House Keeping, Enough Spec at Retail Level for Fuel & Lube is recommended

Thank you
Optimistic Person is always focus on a part of solution,
and
Pesimistic Person is always stayed too long as a part of problem

BTR-DINO-BPS

3 gaikindo

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