Presentation by Doru Frantescu of VoteWatch Europe at Europe Decides / VoteWatch Europe event on Monday 26 May

1. The new EP balance of power: policy
implications for next five years
Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder, VoteWatch Europe
How did Europe vote… and what does it mean for EU policy?
The Microsoft Centre, Brussels, 26 May 2014

2. What impact on EP positions
(and EU policy)?
2

3. 3
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Main outcome
• Less support for strengthening the EU
powers (institutions, agencies, budget);
• but a strong pro-European majority
(‘super-grand’ coalition) stays on.

4. 4
Possible coalitions (%)
Old EP New EP Difference
EPP + S&D + ALDE 72.2 63.5 -8.7
EPP + S&D 61.4 53.1 -8.2
Old EP New EP Difference
EFD + NI + EAF 8.4 16.2 +7.9
ECR + EFD + EAF + NI 15.8 22.5 +6.7
(ECR + EFD + EAF + NI) + GUE 20.4 29.6 +9.2
PRO
ANTI

5. 5
Possible coalitions (%)
Centre-right
Centre-left
Old EP New EP Difference
EPP+ALDE 46.6 38.7 -7.9
EPP+ALDE+ECR 54.0 45.0 -9.0
Old EP New EP Difference
S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL 37.6 38.7 +1.2
(S&D + G/EFA + GUE-NGL) + ALDE 48.4 49.1 +0.7

6. 6
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Economy
• Less budget consolidation
• More public spending
• Push for tax harmonization?
• More regulation of the financial sector

7. 7
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Employment
• More social indicators followed through the
European Semester
• Push for re-correlation of salaries with
inflation rather than productivity
• Regulations more labour-oriented (working
time and work conditions)

8. 8
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Trade and internal market
• Lengthier and more difficult negotiations
on TTIP
• More questioning of the strengthening of
internal market for services

9. 9
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Energy
• Nuclear power will continue to be seen as
playing a key role
• Shale gas and oil exploration – EP majority
likely positive
• Support for pan-EU energy infrastructure

10. 10
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Environment
• Step-by-step approach towards C02
reduction and climate targets?
• Re-industrialization? Uncertain

11. 11
Impact assessment of EP elections on 2014-19 EU policy
Possible scenarios
Civil liberties
• More barriers to migration?

12. Doru Frantescu, Policy Director and Co-founder
doru@votewatcheurope.eu
www.votewatch.eu
@VoteWatchEurope
/VoteWatchEurope